Not long ago, I told you the new Apple Watch will be one of the major catalysts that will drive Apple stock to a $1 trillion market cap.
Well, my own watch finally showed up the evening of May 1, and I've been testing it out ever since.
After using it for a few days now, I've come to believe that this is a truly great product. If anything, my latest Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) share-price predictions were too conservative.
But don't believe me. After all, I'm a big Apple fan and maybe my enthusiasm is getting the better of me.
Instead, today I'm going to share a conversation I had with one guy who's literally on the front lines of Apple's latest success.
Here's what he had to say…
You can imagine how excited I was when I got an email from Apple telling me my new watch would arrive on Friday, May 1.
When I saw the UPS truck show up at my driveway about 6:30 that evening, I felt like a 5-year-old boy on Christmas morning. The driver handed me the package, got my signature, and then said something that caught my "investor's ear."
"Lucky you," he said. "I've been delivering these things all day long. We have tons of them lying around, whole pallets of them waiting to be delivered."
There's an important lesson in this brief conversation. After 35 years covering Silicon Valley, I know that a powerful anecdote can be as illuminating as reams of data.
Morgan Stanley projects Apple Watch sales of 30 million to 60 million units in the first year. Using an average price of $400, that could mean annual sales of $12 billion to $24 billion.
My own forecast is far more conservative. I originally thought the company would sell about 10 million watches in their first year on the market for roughly $4 billion in sales.
I now believe that sales number will come in closer to 12.5 million.
Make no mistake. The Apple Watch is a great product. Indeed, of all the iDevices I've used over the years, this is already my favorite.
About the Author
Michael A. Robinson is a 35-year Silicon Valley veteran and one of the top technology financial analysts working today. He regularly delivers winning trade recommendations to the Members of his monthly tech investing newsletter, Nova-X Report, and small-cap tech service, Radical Technology Profits. In the past two years alone, his subscribers have seen over 100 double- and triple-digit gains from his recommendations.
As a consultant, senior adviser, and board member for Silicon Valley venture capital firms, Michael enjoys privileged access to pioneering CEOs and high-profile industry insiders. In fact, he was one of five people involved in early meetings for the $160 billion "cloud" computing phenomenon. And he was there as Lee Iacocca and Roger Smith, the CEOs of Chrysler and GM, led the robotics revolution that saved the U.S. automotive industry.
In addition to being a regular guest and panelist on CNBC and Fox Business Network, Michael is also a Pulitzer Prize-nominated writer and reporter. His first book, "Overdrawn: The Bailout of American Savings" warned people about the coming financial collapse - years before "bailout" became a household word.
You can follow Michael's tech insight and product updates for free with his Strategic Tech Investor newsletter.