How the UPS Guy Tweaked My Apple Stock Prediction

Not long ago, I told you the new Apple Watch will be one of the major catalysts that will drive Apple stock to a $1 trillion market cap.

Well, my own watch finally showed up the evening of May 1, and I've been testing it out ever since.

After using it for a few days now, I've come to believe that this is a truly great product. If anything, my latest Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) share-price predictions were too conservative.

But don't believe me. After all, I'm a big Apple fan and maybe my enthusiasm is getting the better of me.

Instead, today I'm going to share a conversation I had with one guy who's literally on the front lines of Apple's latest success.

Here's what he had to say...

The Conversation

You can imagine how excited I was when I got an email from Apple telling me my new watch would arrive on Friday, May 1.

When I saw the UPS truck show up at my driveway about 6:30 that evening, I felt like a 5-year-old boy on Christmas morning. The driver handed me the package, got my signature, and then said something that caught my "investor's ear."

"Lucky you," he said. "I've been delivering these things all day long. We have tons of them lying around, whole pallets of them waiting to be delivered."

There's an important lesson in this brief conversation. After 35 years covering Silicon Valley, I know that a powerful anecdote can be as illuminating as reams of data.

Apple StockAnd I believe that UPS driver's story proves Apple has a winner in the making.

Morgan Stanley projects Apple Watch sales of 30 million to 60 million units in the first year. Using an average price of $400, that could mean annual sales of $12 billion to $24 billion.

My own forecast is far more conservative. I originally thought the company would sell about 10 million watches in their first year on the market for roughly $4 billion in sales.

I now believe that sales number will come in closer to 12.5 million.

Make no mistake. The Apple Watch is a great product. Indeed, of all the iDevices I've used over the years, this is already my favorite.

Here's why CEO Tim Cook was absolutely correct when he called the Apple Watch his company's most "personal" product...

Getting Personal

The watch worked great right out of the box. Syncing to my iPhone was straightforward - and I was off and running.

I first set up my watch face. I decided on the "utility" one so that the date and temperature displayed along with calendar appointments at the bottom of the screen.

It's all very intuitive. I simply tapped the appointment that was displayed, and my calendar popped up on a new screen, giving me a week's worth of appointments.

Then I started sending texts. This also was a breeze. Texts come with preloaded responses, but if you hit the word "Reply," a microphone pops up at the bottom of the screen.

Hit the mic button and you can start dictating your message. I did just that and started reaching out to friends and family. The dictation to Siri went well, and the watch gave me the choice to send my replies either as written messages or voice recordings.

Not only that, but I was able to use my watch to manage the painting crew who arrived at my house Saturday morning. The watch kept me in contact with an offsite supervisor through a series of texts.

This was convenient, because it meant I didn't have to keep pulling my iPhone out of my pocket.

Another pleasant surprise: The Bluetooth connectivity is strong. That's crucial because the Apple Watch has to be near your iPhone to work.

I was able to dictate a message to my wife on my watch even though my iPhone was plugged in and charging about 35 feet and one story away.

A Second Chat

I was already very impressed with this wearable device when I had a second chance conversation that told me Apple has a hit on its hand.

While I was showing the watch to my daughter over dinner at a local restaurant, two couples walking past our table saw it and stopped in their tracks.

They were intrigued and asked for a demonstration. Of course, I obliged. I was even able to dictate a message in that noisy restaurant, meaning the watch's voice-recognition capabilities are strong.

All four seemed genuinely impressed and complimented me on the device.

That may seem like an innocuous chat, but here's why I think it was meaningful.

I've been a gadget guy for decades, and nothing like that has ever happened to me before - not even when I was an early adopter of laptop computers and smartphones.

But the best was yet come. See, one of the major reasons why I believe so much that Apple stock is a good investment is the fact that the company doesn't just sell products.

It's delivers to its millions of customers an entire "ecosystem" of PCs, mobile devices and other consumer technology that work seamlessly together.

And the watch already fits right in.

When I got home that night, I descended to my home theater and kicked on Apple TV. Sure enough, my new smartwatch discovered the Apple TV, and the remote-control app popped up in the watch's face.

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And there I was - playing, pausing, fast-forwarding, and rewinding a movie from the face of my watch.

It gets better. Earlier, I paused a song on my iPhone when I got out of the car. Sitting in my home theater, I simply tapped the watch's music icon and a control app popped up.

Next thing I knew, I was using the Apple Watch to control the music on my phone. But to get the full ecosystem, I went a step further.

The iPhone allows you to play music through your Apple TV and, via "mirroring," see what's on the phone displays on your TV monitor as well.

I connected my music player to my home hi-fi system and controlled the music from my watch. All in all, it's a great home entertainment experience.

Phoning It In

There's also one other feature that's incredibly useful - you can use your watch as a phone.

While I was writing this note to you, my iPhone rang and the call showed up automatically on my watch. I took the call on the Apple Watch to test it out.

I could hear the caller clearly, and she could hear me just fine. So, the watch really is a great communications device.

This truly is a feature-rich product that works well and integrates seamlessly with other Apple products.

To be fair, the battery life is not great. With the current state of battery technology you simply won't be able to wear the watch 24/7. I got about eight full hours out of mine, enough for a full workday.

But that's not unique to this or any other wearable or mobile device. Earlier versions of the iPhone faced the same issue, and at this point I don't see this hurting watch sales.

Also, I wouldn't dive into the surf or a pool while wearing an Apple Watch. And I'd take it off before playing racquetball, lacrosse, or other high-impact sports.

Other than that, it will be hard - if not impossible - for Samsung, SG or anyone else to beat the Apple Watch's overall connectivity and ability to function as a wearable minicomputer.

If the iDevice King can keep pumping out more products like this that interconnect with the rest of its ecosystem, then yes - AAPL stock really is on the way to becoming the first $1 trillion market-cap company by this time in 2018.

That would be a roughly 35% rally from here.

Apple is truly a unique stock.

It's a growth firm that will continue beating the market over the next three years.

And it's also the tech leader of the moment - and that makes it a foundational play you can count on to create wealth for years to come.

When It Comes to Making a Comeback, They "Excel." Microsoft stock recently soared, jumping 10.5% on a single day following a strong third-quarter earnings report on April 24. While that's huge jump in share price, it actually understates the significance of the stock's rally. On that same day, this company added a stunning $36.6 billion in value to its shareholders. Here's what makes Microsoft stock "The Comeback Kid"...

About the Author

Michael A. Robinson is a 36-year Silicon Valley veteran and one of the top tech and biotech financial analysts working today. That's because, as a consultant, senior adviser, and board member for Silicon Valley venture capital firms, Michael enjoys privileged access to pioneering CEOs, scientists, and high-profile players. And he brings this entire world of Silicon Valley "insiders" right to you...

  • He was one of five people involved in early meetings for the $160 billion "cloud" computing phenomenon.
  • He was there as Lee Iacocca and Roger Smith, the CEOs of Chrysler and GM, led the robotics revolution that saved the U.S. automotive industry.
  • As cyber-security was becoming a focus of national security, Michael was with Dave DeWalt, the CEO of McAfee, right before Intel acquired his company for $7.8 billion.

This all means the entire world is constantly seeking Michael's insight.

In addition to being a regular guest and panelist on CNBC and Fox Business, he is also a Pulitzer Prize-nominated writer and reporter. His first book Overdrawn: The Bailout of American Savings warned people about the coming financial collapse - years before the word "bailout" became a household word.

Silicon Valley defense publications vie for his analysis. He's worked for Defense Media Network and Signal Magazine, as well as The New York Times, American Enterprise, and The Wall Street Journal.

And even with decades of experience, Michael believes there has never been a moment in time quite like this.

Right now, medical breakthroughs that once took years to develop are moving at a record speed. And that means we are going to see highly lucrative biotech investment opportunities come in fast and furious.

To help you navigate the historic opportunity in biotech, Michael launched the Bio-Tech Profit Alliance.

His other publications include: Strategic Tech Investor, The Nova-X Report, Bio-Technology Profit Alliance and Nexus-9 Network.

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