After a month of negative talk from Wall Street analysts that helped drive Apple stock down 20%, the mood has suddenly reversed.
The gloom lifted at the oddest of times - in the midst of a stock market meltdown yesterday (Monday) that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1,000 points at the open.
Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) stock was among the biggest losers at that point, down more than 10% to $92 before rebounding sharply. For several hours, AAPL stock was in positive territory before ending the session off 2.5% to $103.15 - avoiding the Dow's 3.6% decline.
Apple stock almost surely would have ended Monday worse off than the overall market but for one extraordinary event. Apple CEO Tim Cook emailed CNBC host Jim Cramer to reassure him (and Wall Street) that Apple's iPhone sales in China had "accelerated over the past few weeks."
Not only did that rescue the Apple stock price yesterday, but it also ensured a strong rebound today (Tuesday). In mid-day trading, AAPL is up more than 5%, while the Dow is up just 2%.
Cook's message directly contradicted what had become conventional wisdom on Wall Street - that China's economic problems were hurting sales there, especially of the pricey iPhone.
This is one of those illustrative moments that shows why investors need to take whatever Wall Street says with a heavy dose of salt.
When Apple reported its Q3 earnings in July, it missed expectations on iPhone sales. And it failed to break out Apple Watch sales, which led many to assume the product was bombing. (Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) countered that notion today when it reported strong demand for the Apple Watch. The retailer plans to expand the number of stores carrying the product to over 1,000.)
Analysts also started to fret that sales of the next version of the iPhone, due Sept. 9, will suffer in comparison to those of the iPhone 6, which have been spectacular.
So Cowen & Co., as well as Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE: BAC), promptly downgraded Apple stock. And the sell-off began.
As the AAPL stock price fell, the media joined the act with stories wondering whether the reversal meant that the company's glory days were over.
But that's not what we were saying here at Money Morning...
Why Apple Stock Was Never as Bad as Wall Street Said It Was
From the very beginning, we were critical of the Wall Street analysts and the sell-off in Apple stock that they triggered.
Money Morning Capital Wave Strategist Shah Gilani was on FOX Business' "Varney & Co." the next day calling the initial sell-off "ridiculous."
A few days later, Money Morning Defense & Tech Specialist Michael A. Robinson explained why Wall Street was wrong about Apple stock. "This is a tech giant with a lot of upside left," he said.
On Aug. 5 - after AAPL stock fell five consecutive days - Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald weighed in.
"China is no more going to disappear than America is, and Wall Street analysts rarely get it right," Fitz-Gerald said. He called the price drop "a unique chance to buy in when everybody is running the other way."
And on Aug. 7, Money Morning Options Expert Tom Gentile did an analysis that showed Apple still had room to fall (which it has) but would rebound from those lows to $200 within 12 months.
Both before and after the pullback, Fitz-Gerald maintained a similar $200 price target on Apple stock.
You don't see that kind of consistency on Wall Street, which has had a confusing love-hate relationship with Apple stock for a long time. Investors can't afford to follow their mercurial opinions - especially when they get it wrong so often, as they have with Apple over the past month.
Follow me on Twitter @DavidGZeiler.
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About the Author
David Zeiler, Associate Editor for Money Morning at Money Map Press, has been a journalist for more than 35 years, including 18 spent at The Baltimore Sun. He has worked as a writer, editor, and page designer at different times in his career. He's interviewed a number of well-known personalities - ranging from punk rock icon Joey Ramone to Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak.
Over the course of his journalistic career, Dave has covered many diverse subjects. Since arriving at Money Morning in 2011, he has focused primarily on technology. He's an expert on both Apple and cryptocurrencies. He started writing about Apple for The Sun in the mid-1990s, and had an Apple blog on The Sun's web site from 2007-2009. Dave's been writing about Bitcoin since 2011 - long before most people had even heard of it. He even mined it for a short time.
Dave has a BA in English and Mass Communications from Loyola University Maryland.