Apple stock doesn't do well in the periods directly before the launch of a new model of iPhone - a period we're in right now - but usually rises in the days and months afterward.
If the pattern holds again this year, now is when you want to buy AAPL stock.
Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) is expected to launch the iPhone 6s (or possibly iPhone 7) at an event at San Francisco's Bill Graham Civic Auditorium on Wednesday, Sept. 9, a week from tomorrow.
Despite a torrent of rumors in the weeks leading up to any iPhone launch, investors usually take a wait-and-see approach with Apple stock.
The AAPL stock price has fallen in the week prior to the new iPhone launch in four out of the five previous years.
But investors must have liked what they saw. In all but one year, 2010, Apple stock was higher one week after the new iPhone launch. Several increases were surprisingly high for a single week, such as the 6% pop in 2012 and the 9% rise in 2013.
Maximizing Profits from Apple Stock
And given how the iPhone has fattened Apple's profits, it's not surprising that the long-term returns are also mostly in positive territory. Apple stock rose four out of five years in both the six-month and 12-month categories, with the iPhone 5 in 2012 being the exception.
So investors who bought AAPL stock in the week before an iPhone launch squeezed out a bit more profit than those who waited until after the Apple event.
Apple stock has had a volatile year so far. It rose more than 20% in the first two months of 2015 but has lost about 17% since mid-July.
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Last week, the Apple stock chart formed a death cross - normally a bearish indicator. The last two times AAPL had a death cross, it fell 38% (in 2008) and 27% (in 2012) in the following months.
So far, though, Apple stock is only down a few percentage points - in line with the overall stock market decline.
But whether market weakness and the death cross cause AAPL to fall, or the new iPhone sparks a fresh rally, Apple stock will, in the long run, continue its advance. The company simply has too many catalysts.
"Apple's disruptive, dominating position in China and around the globe will bring incredible profits over the months and years to come," said Money Morning Defense & Tech Specialist Michael Robinson, who has a price target of $142.85 on Apple stock. "This is a tech giant with a lot of upside left."
Follow me on Twitter @DavidGZeiler.
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About the Author
David Zeiler, Associate Editor for Money Morning at Money Map Press, has been a journalist for more than 35 years, including 18 spent at The Baltimore Sun. He has worked as a writer, editor, and page designer at different times in his career. He's interviewed a number of well-known personalities - ranging from punk rock icon Joey Ramone to Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak.
Over the course of his journalistic career, Dave has covered many diverse subjects. Since arriving at Money Morning in 2011, he has focused primarily on technology. He's an expert on both Apple and cryptocurrencies. He started writing about Apple for The Sun in the mid-1990s, and had an Apple blog on The Sun's web site from 2007-2009. Dave's been writing about Bitcoin since 2011 - long before most people had even heard of it. He even mined it for a short time.
Dave has a BA in English and Mass Communications from Loyola University Maryland.