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The end of the year is always an opportunity to take stock of what we achieved over the last 12 months and to make plans for the next year.
So first, a report card of sorts.
Since starting Sure Money in September, I've made a lot of predictions about markets, sectors, individual stocks… I don't get everything right, but I do my level best to make calls that are forward-looking, actionable, and accurate. (And I promise to continue to do my level best not to join the parade of idiots taking over this country, its government, its central bank, its mainstream media, and its educational institutions.) Today I want to take some time to review these market predictions before we chart the course for the new year.
Then get ready, because this week I'm releasing my full 2016 forecast for you:
- My 2016 year-end target for the S&P 500 – it's much different than you're seeing from Wall Street's so-called "top strategists."
- My expected trading range for the euro and the yen.
- Where the 10-year Treasury yield will go.
- The direction of U.S. GDP.
- 10 stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that will go up (including several that are undervalued).
- I have included a formal list of short recommendations as well; I couldn't help myself. There are too many stocks trading at unsustainable valuations. You'll see my top 10 shorts and my strategic recommendation for how to play them.
- And even who I expect to win the U.S. presidential election.
First, here's how my 2015 predictions panned out.
2015 Market Predictions
Prediction No. 1: S&P 500 will drop by 10% by the end of 2015 to 1,875 to 1,900.
Date: Dec. 23, 2014
The very first prediction I shared with you was my January prediction for the year, first published in The Credit Strategist newsletter in December 2014: a 10% drop in 2015.
At the time I wrote it, I was unaware of any major strategist making a similar stock forecast. Strategists were almost unanimous in predicting further gains for the market. Barron's survey of top strategists produced a range of gains ranging from 5% to 17%, with not a single strategist calling for a decline.
Of course, this happened in August. The S&P 500 fell to 1,867.
In my Super Crash Report update on Sept. 8, 2015, I said, "We are likely see more volatility with a downward bias until there is more clarity on the Fed's intentions regarding interest rates." While the market recovered from its August low, it has been weak in December. Keep an eye out for my 2016 forecast.
Prediction No. 2: The U.S. dollar will get stronger.
Date: Sept. 14, 2015
The U.S. dollar index DXY was at 96.27 at the time, and I said it was likely to push through its next key resistance level of 98, which would rock the markets – putting pressure on oil and other commodities, U.S. corporate profits, and emerging markets.
DXY pushed above 98 in early November and has remained around there.
Prediction No. 3: Oil is going to fall by 50%… again.
Date: Sept. 28, 2015
By this time, the energy market was crashing, and oil had just dropped below $45 a barrel for the first time in months. But I knew it wasn't over and predicted that it had another 50% to fall because of massive debt in the energy industry and the strength of the U.S. dollar.
I told you, "Believe me, there is going to be much more blood in the water."
Three months later, WTI oil just made new decade lows around $34 a barrel – not a 50% drop from there, but almost 25%.
I still believe the price of oil (WTI) is likely to dip into the $20s before the current cycle ends.
Prediction No. 4: Glencore could set off an AIG-style meltdown in commodities.
About the Author
Prominent money manager. Has built top-ranked credit and hedge funds, managed billions for institutional and high-net-worth clients. 29-year career.