Start the conversation
Comment on This Story
Or to contact Money Morning Customer Service, click here.
Donald Trump will win election 2016 in a landslide, according to survey results from the anonymous question-and-answer application, Zip App.
Even though you've likely never heard of Zip App, it's one of the best indicators around - we'll get to why that is momentarily...
But first, here's what the mobile app - which is not explicitly a polling application - asked users:
Question 1: "New polls suggest Trump is getting crushed by Clinton, do they reflect how you are going to vote?"
Results: Out of two answer options, 81% of respondents chose "No, Trump is still my man," while only 19% chose "Yes, Hillary has my vote."
Question 2: In another survey, the app asked its users: "The polls say most Americans do not like Trump: Be honest - do you really dislike him?"
Results: Out of two options, 59% of respondents chose "the polls are wrong. Love/like him," while 41% of respondents chose "the polls are right, hate him."
The two surveys show a huge difference in results compared to most other over-the-phone or in-person polls. [Editor's Note: Pollsters have consistently missed a large chunk of Trump's support...]
These polls show Donald Trump losing to Hillary Clinton by a significant margin. For example, the latest NBC News/SM general election poll showed Clinton with a six-point lead over Trump. And out of all the most recent national polls going back to Aug. 1 (eight in total), Clinton has an average six-point lead over Trump. In most swing states, like Colorado, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, Trump is losing by near double digits.
There are two big reasons, however, why Zip App's survey results are far more predictive than most general election polls.
Why Zip App Is More Reliable Than Over-the-Phone or In-Person Polls
Non-online polls usually survey around 1,000 or fewer people. In comparison, Zip App surveyed over 100,000 people. Of course, the greater the sample size in surveys or polls, the more statistically significant they are. So compared to most non-online polls, Zip App's survey results are a much stronger predictive indicator of the general election.
What's more, Zip App's questions eliminate certain biases - like "sociability bias"...
Pollsters have found a significant sociability bias to "conform" in surveys conducted over the phone or in person, according to a December study by Morning Consult. The study found that Donald Trump, in general, does better on anonymous online polls because people feel less likely to be judged unfavorably by others.
This works heavily in Donald Trump's favor since the general election vote is anonymous, just like most online polls.
Up Next: Voters unhappy with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are clamoring for a third option. They may not know it, but they already have one...
