The slide in the price of gold that began in early August continues on.
Gold prices continue to work off the excesses from the exceptionally strong first half of the year. After being up an impressive 25% in just six months, some measure of rest was both deserved and healthy.
Who can complain? It was gold's best first half to a year since 1980.
With the September FOMC meeting behind us and no rate hike, gold's recent bounce appears temporary.
The effects of the first presidential debate were also muted. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) managed to trade in a rather narrow range as it also appears to be in consolidation mode.
Let's look at the past week in gold, and look at what's next for the price of gold...
How the Price of Gold Is Trending Now
The price of gold ended the previous trading week on Friday, Sept. 23, on a strong note. Traders bid up the precious metal before heading into the weekend, likely in anticipation of the first presidential debate between Trump and Clinton. Gold prices closed out that week at $1,337.
On Monday morning, gold sold off in the early hours, then rebounded to open at $1,337. Gold traded mostly sideways throughout the day before closing at $1,338.
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Then the debate happened. If you believe the markets, observers seem to think Clinton won. And that took away some of gold's safe-haven appeal as Clinton is more of a known quantity.
The price of gold opened Tuesday at $1,336, then quickly sold off losing $10 per ounce to trade at $1,326 by 10:00 a.m. as the dollar jumped. From there, it clawed back to $1,327 by the close.
On Wednesday, the DXY held up and seemed to weigh further on gold. It opened at $1,327, then sold off to close at $1,321.
Then on Thursday, sellers pushed gold lower still to $1,317 by 8:00 a.m., though buying stepped in to pull it up to $1,320 by the close. Rumors of the possible need for a bailout at Deutsche Bank likely provided that support.
While the price of gold pulled back continuously last week, here's what investors and traders can expect now...
What's Next for the Price of Gold in 2016
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What's next for the price of gold? Well, let's see how it's behaved lately to gain some clues.
Gold futures' gains to $1,345 from the Fed's decision not to raise rates were short lived. The precious metal traded down to $1,320 and could be setting up to retest its range low near $1,310, which has held since late July.
Should gold break down below that level, we could see it drop a little further to perhaps the $1,280 to $1,290 level.
For their part, gold stocks have fared a bit worse in this correction. But thanks to their leverage, that should be no surprise.
In fact, if we look at the gold stocks to gold ratio, we see that after the tremendous gains they've made versus gold in the first half of the year, gold stocks have backed off. The HUI to gold ratio had soared from near 0.09 to more than double near 0.21. It's since retreated to 0.17 and could give up a little more before heading higher once again.
We see the 50-day moving average for the ratio having topped in early September, pointing to lost momentum and potentially more weakness in the near term.
But as we enter the final quarter of the year and factor in one of the most captivating presidential elections in decades, gold is likely to regain its bullish demeanor and head toward the $1,400 level.
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