As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers at this week's FOMC meeting voted to keep interest rates unchanged. Central bank rate policies and next week's U.S. presidential election are the two biggest influences on U.S. stock prices right now.
Well, the FOMC held the line on rates this week, but they're widely expected to boost borrowing costs in December – thanks to indications the long-moribund U.S. economy is finally accelerating. Indeed, Fed Chair Janet C. Yellen said back in September that strength in the job ranks and a healthy surge in inflation would give policymakers the confidence to raise rates.
This is a time when investors need nothing so much as a roadmap to where the market's going to actually go in the next weeks and months. Clarity, in other words… and there's precious little of that to be had from the traditional financial media.
But of course, they don't have D.R. Barton, Jr. – a 26-year market veteran and pro trader – on their speed dials like I do…
Stocks Are the Focus of the Fed's "Narrative"
William Patalon, III: D.R., you have a reputation for market analyses that keep you – and your subscribers – ahead of the curve. Last year, for instance, I remember being ahead of the market thanks to your thinking. Last year, I remember, you were saying that the so-called "FANG stocks" – Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq: FB), Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) and Alphabet/Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOGL) – were the only ones that mattered to investors at that time.
Indeed, we shared those insights – and others – with Private Briefing readers. You made good recommendations for your subscribers with this focus, and then the markets finally came around to your way of thinking, pretty much in time for you to shift the other way.
D.R. Barton, Jr.: It's interesting how those "Big Four" FANG tech stocks led the market… retrenched… and led the market yet again. I think all four can still be bought on pullbacks, especially for those with longer investment horizons.
WP: As I've chronicled to my subscribers, I see big things for Facebook – for those with that long-term horizon you mentioned.
DRB: Indeed, Bill – as you and I have discussed many times …
WP: Your next great call had to do with the U.S. central bank. Early this year, you said that the story of the U.S. Federal Reserve – the so-called "narrative" of the U.S. central bank – was the "only narrative that mattered." In recent months, I've heard other analysts, observers, traders, and mavens make the same comment.
About the Author
Before he moved into the investment-research business in 2005, William (Bill) Patalon III spent 22 years as an award-winning financial reporter, columnist, and editor. Today he is the Executive Editor and Senior Research Analyst for Money Morning. With his latest project, Private Briefing, Bill takes you "behind the scenes" of his established investment news website for a closer look at the action. Members get all the expert analysis and exclusive scoops he can't publish... and some of the most valuable picks that turn up in Bill's closed-door sessions with editors and experts.