With only four days until the official Election Day in America, it's time to check in on the latest numbers and forecasts pointing to who will win the 2016 presidential election.
The polls have tightened. Check out the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll, which follows 3,000 eligible voters until Election Day. Support for Trump spiked after FBI Director James Comey reopened the Clinton investigation on Oct. 28. Just a week before Comey's announcement, Clinton had a roughly 2% edge over Trump in the same poll. Trump support is now up five percentage points against Clinton in the tracking poll as of Nov. 3, with Trump holding a lead of 47.5% versus Clinton's 42.5%.
Another national poll, conducted by Rasmussen Reports, shows Trump gaining support against Clinton heavily - with over 50% support from voters who are certain they will vote. Among "likely" voters, the Nov. 3 telephone and online survey shows Trump with a 45% to 42% lead over Clinton. The previous two days, Trump and Clinton were tied. This is the first time Trump's been ahead of Clinton in this poll in nearly two weeks.
Then other polls, such as the CBS News/New York Times poll and the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll, show Clinton with a two- or three-point lead over Trump.
Polls have also tightened in recent weeks in battleground states. The Real Clear Politics polling average for Florida shows Trump with a 0.7% lead, based on polls conducted between Oct. 25 and Nov. 1. In Nevada, the RCP polling average shows Trump leading Clinton by two points. In Colorado, Clinton has retained a 1.7-point lead.
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But the polls only show half the story.
Many think they're flawed. For example, some voters may say they're supporting a particular candidate (especially over the phone) because of sociability bias: the tendency to conform to social standards.
In addition, most polls, while considered "statistically significant," only poll a few thousand people on average - which is only .00000137% of the 218 million registered voters in the United States.
What the poll numbers don't show us about who's winning the 2016 presidential election is why the numbers have changed a bit going into the final week before Election Day. Here are a couple factors that are moving the data on who will win on Nov. 8...
The Top Factors That Still Make It Hard to Predict Who Will Win the 2016 Presidential Election
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Factor No. 1: Depressed African American Voter Turnout
Compared to 2012, African American voter turnout is down 16% in early voting in North Carolina. And a similar situation is happening in Florida, where the number of African American voters going to the polls has decreased 25% since 2012, according to the Associated Press. Clinton will still win the African American vote by an overwhelming majority. Since the early 90s, roughly 80% of African Americans have identified with the Democratic Party, according to the Pew Research Center. But the early statistics show that many African Americans aren't as enthusiastic about Clinton as they were President Obama, who won 93% of the African American vote in 2012.
Lower voter turnout could seriously hurt Clinton's ability to win key battleground states, like Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Factor No. 2: Clinton Email/Clinton Foundation Investigations
This one's a doozy for Clinton, and a controversy that's hot on the minds of American voters. And it's not just because Comey reopened the investigation into Clinton's private email server...
On Oct. 26, The Washington Post reported that the House Oversight Committee has lined up years of investigations regarding Clinton.
"It's a target-rich environment," Utah Congressman Jason Chaffetz said in a Washington Post interview in Salt Lake City's suburbs. "Even before we get to Day One, we've got two years' worth of material already lined up. She has four years of history at the State Department, and it ain't good."
What's more, while the FBI pores over more Clinton emails, the bureau is also investigating the Clinton Foundation for illicit "pay-to-play" activities. This investigation has been going on for over a year.
Factor No. 3: WikiLeaks
More on the Clinton email saga is WikiLeaks' ongoing role. Years from now, WikiLeaks could be seen as the bane of Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign.
It's not clear how many more emails the nonprofit has regarding Clinton, but as of right now, it has released over 40,000 emails from Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta.
And the flow of hacked emails doesn't show any signs of stopping...
On Oct. 30, WikiLeaks tweeted that it had commenced "phase 3" of its election coverage, which is sure to include more critical coverage of Clinton.
The Bottom Line: We're all in this together - watching real-time results on Nov. 8.