Where the Price of Gold Is Headed Now

We've now had about a week and a half to digest the U.S. election and President-elect Donald Trump.

While the price of gold was down about 5.5% by the end of last week, there was even noteworthy action in the bond market.

Since the election, 10-year Treasuries lost an astounding 20%, and I think that's just a precursor of what's to come. It's a point I highlighted in some detail last week, and it remains important as we've seen the trend continue further into this week.

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In fact, the losses in long-term Treasuries have been so large, it's possible that we'll see at least a partial reversal. But I also believe it's confirmation of the end of the 35-year bond bull market and the start of its bear.

Yet as investors clamor for yield, they're being distracted by higher long-term yields and the specter of a near-term Fed rate hike. That has the U.S. Dollar Index setting a 12-month high.

Meanwhile, the price of gold's recent weakness is providing a wonderful opportunity to accumulate the precious metal.

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And although you may not have realized, there's actually been one place where gold prices just soared to $2,000 per ounce...

How the Price of Gold Is Trending Now

The price of gold endured a hefty sell-off on Friday, Nov. 11. It began NY trading at $1,258, but dropped all the way to $1,228 by the close.

Since then, gold prices have been grinding sideways in a range between $1,213 and $1,232.  Monday supplied the most volatility. Tuesday and Wednesday saw the range narrow between $1,222 and $1,232.

But by Thursday, the gold price had weakened on stronger U.S. economic data, as well as the Fed's Janet Yellen reinforcing the outlook for a December rate hike. That caused gold to sink to about $1,211, then bounce slightly to $1,217 by day's end.

Meanwhile, expectations of a rate hike, along with bouncing stock markets and a surging U.S. dollar, have all weighed on gold prices.

Here's how the DXY has been faring over the past week.

price of gold

The dollar surges of last Friday and this past Thursday speak volumes in terms of gold's weakness on those corresponding days.

Now that we've looked at how the price of gold has been trending, here's where I see it going from here...

Where the Price of Gold Goes Now

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While gold prices have been struggling in U.S. dollars, the story's been quite different in India.

On the night of the U.S. election, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shocked his country by announcing that larger denomination rupee notes would no longer be legal tender. Indians now have until the end of December to exchange those notes at banks.

Suddenly, 1,000 rupee notes could only be sold to middlemen who had some way of exchanging large quantities of the notes at banks, for just 750 rupees. Many Indians flocked to gold to dump their soon-to-be-worthless cash. But because of the new discount on paper money, they had to pay a premium to the global price.

That meant they were paying the equivalent of $2,000 for gold in rupees. When there's too much cash, limited gold, and soaring demand, the price has only one way to go, and that's up.

If we look at the technical action of the gold price, it seems we're currently very near a level that's acted as support for most of this year.

price of gold

It's possible we'll continue to see some weakness/consolidation for a little while longer, but in my view, the downside is very limited at this point. Before too long - think days or weeks - I expect we'll see a bounce from current levels as bargain hunters step up.

Given the limited time remaining in 2016, and unless we face an unexpected sell-off, gold looks to end the year in positive territory. If the rate hike news gets sufficiently priced in ahead of its announcement, we could see gold climb into year's end, perhaps even grappling for the $1,300 level.

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