At a time when market volatility has reared its head, the price of gold has climbed, providing a safe-haven alternative. Gold prices today are up 0.4% to $1,253.30 per ounce.
On Wednesday, once news of possible impeding of justice by President Donald Trump had hit the wires, volatility exploded. The VIX volatility index went from a near historical low on Tuesday to opening 17% higher. By the end of the day, the VIX had surged 46% from the previous close.
And gold prices jumped in response, gaining almost 2% in one day.
But the gold price has since pulled back as the markets bounced back somewhat.
Was Wednesday's action a reminder to stock investors to "sell in May and go away"? Well, if you're a stock trader, then just maybe.
Right now, it's looking like gold will still face some hefty resistance at its 200-day moving average, so we may not quite be out of the woods yet. But the midterm price action remains bullish.
Here's a look at how the price of gold is trending and where gold prices will head from here...
Here's How the Price of Gold Is Trending Now
Gold ended the previous trading week with a small bump... that proved futile. It opened on Friday, May 12, at $1,228, rose to $1,231 by 9:00 a.m., but retreated back from there and ended where it started at $1,228 once again.
Still, the multi-month low put in on the previous Wednesday, at $1,218, started looking more like a new "higher low."
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On Monday, despite a higher stock market open, gold managed to head higher too. It opened at $1,232, peaked at $1,236 at 9:00 a.m., then retreated as it had on Friday. This time, it settled back to close below where it had opened, ending at $1,230, but still above Friday's close.
Tuesday brought some subtle follow through, as gold opened at $1,235. At midday, it had risen to $1,238, then retreated a little back to close at $1,237. That was still $7 ahead of Monday's close.
Then late Tuesday and early Wednesday another push higher came along, when gold managed to rally all the way to $1,243. By the 8:00 a.m. open, gold was commanding $1,247, and by 11:00 a.m. had surged all the way to $1,260. Buyers remained motivated and pushed gold to $1,261 by 5:00 p.m.
Here's how the major indices, oil, and gold looked at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday morning:
And here's a look at the U.S. Dollar Index through all this gold price action:
On Thursday, once traders realized that Trump's missteps were not likely to be enough to lead to an eventual impeachment, markets got back their mojo, and gold backed off. The price of gold opened at $1,258, then proceeded to lose $10 per ounce over the course of that day, ending at $1,248. Still, that was $23 better than a week earlier.
Now that we know what has been moving gold higher this week, here's where I see prices heading from here...
Where the Price of Gold Will Go from Here
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What does all this mean for gold going forward?
Wednesday's action in gold stocks was less than stellar, so they don't seem to be confirming that action in gold. But any further weakness to come may set up an opportunity to go long.
Keep in mind that gold's action over the last five months has been healthy, if not outstanding. Remember too that bull markets like to bring along the least possible participants.
But if we look at the constructive action since December, gold's been consistently putting in higher highs and higher lows - a textbook bullish price trend.
This step formation is encouraging. But I do want to point out that although I'm long-term bullish, anything can happen, especially at this juncture.
Notice that the current price of $1,250 is also at the same place where the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sit. What gold does next could be crucial for the direction of its near-term price action.
Perhaps the Fed's next rate hike will be the trigger to finally push gold above the crucial $1,300 level. From there, $1,400 will be an easier target to take out this year.
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