After a strong start that later faltered, silver pulled off a late-week rally that allowed it to rise to levels last seen on April 25. With last week's 1.2% gain, the price of silver in 2017 is now up 9.9% to $17.58.
Last week's performance continues the strong 9.4% rebound that's been nearly non-stop higher since bottoming at $16.07 on May 9.
The silver price is now at a level where it could run into overhead resistance. Despite that, its price action is still looking promising for bulls.
Meanwhile, technical indicators continue moving in the right direction, favoring higher silver prices. And on the fundamental side, silver drivers equally point to positive conditions for the metal.
I'm going to show you how three of these factors support my bullish silver price target in 2017. First, let's look at silver's continued rebound last week...
Why Silver Prices Gained 1.2% Last Week (May 26 - June 2)
After settling at $17.32 on Friday, May 26, silver opened on Monday, May 29, at $17.33. It meandered slightly higher on balance through the day to close up 0.3% at $17.37.
Tuesday offered a mixed performance for the price of silver. It sold off early in the morning, falling as low as $17.23, before surging higher in the afternoon. By the end of the session, the silver price closed at $17.38 for a small 0.1% gain.
Editor's Note: An incredibly rare gold anomaly is shaping up in the markets as we speak -- one that has occurred ONLY twice in the past 20 years. And it's about to happen again. Details here...
After retreating overnight, silver saw renewed - though subtle - strength Wednesday morning. However, prices traded below the previous day's close and ended at $17.30 for a 0.5% loss. This came despite a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar.
Here's a look at the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) last week...
On Thursday, June 1, the DXY regained its previous losses and moved from 97 to 97.25. This weighed on silver prices, which once again sold off in the early morning, opening at $17.10. Despite heading higher in the afternoon, silver still closed the session at $17.27 for a 0.2% loss.
It wasn't until Friday that silver saw a tremendous rally. It opened sharply higher at $17.35 thanks to huge dollar sell-off after a weak May jobs report. From there, the price of silver kept gaining momentum and eventually closed the day 1.5% higher at $17.53 - the highest level since April 25. With that, silver posted a weekly gain of 1.2%.
The silver price today (Monday, June 5) is also continuing higher, putting the metal on track for another record close. It's up 0.3% and trading at $17.58.
If we look at silver's technical and fundamental indicators like the gold/silver ratio, we can see the metal has a lot more room to run higher this year. That's why I want to show you just how high I see silver heading by the end of December 2017.
Here's my silver price outlook...
Price of Silver in 2017 Will Hit This Bullish Target
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As I highlighted last week, the gold/silver ratio has mostly remained on a downward trend.
This chart shows how the ratio (red/black line) is down from about 75.5 near mid-May to around 73 today...
From this perspective, silver prices continue to gain relative to gold prices.
As for just the silver price, we can still see constructive action. All we have to do is look at the rally since the May 9 bottom...
Silver prices have just reached the convergence area of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
I would not be surprised to see silver stall a bit, as the $17.50 level could provide overhead resistance, and the recent rally over the last three weeks has had little rest.
Once that level has been overcome, the next logical target is $18.50, and the catalyst could be the likely rate hike after the June FOMC meeting concludes on June 14. That would be a generous gain of 5.2% from the current $17.58 level.
On the sentiment and fundamental sides, here are a couple of things to consider...
Recently, 20 U.S. states have removed sales taxes from transactions on precious metals. And on May 23, Arizona signed legislation that eliminates capital gains taxes on gold and silver, which lets citizens use the two metals as formal currency. The state passed H.B. 2014, which formally classifies U.S.-minted gold and silver coins as legal tender.
Also consider how the Silver Institute reported last month that global silver production peaked in 2015 and that 2016 saw output drop for the first time in 14 years. HSBC Bank now expects this year's deficit to be double last year's.
With no metals taxes in nearly half the country and rapidly falling supply, a higher silver price certainly looks like it's in the cards. That's why I see silver gaining 25.1% to $22 by the end of the year.