Most Bitcoin charts tell you where the price of the cryptocurrency has been, but this Bitcoin price chart tells you where it's going.
And it's going higher – exponentially higher.
This chart makes a Bitcoin price prediction of $10,000 by December 2018, $20,000 by the fall of 2019, and $100,000 by mid-2021.
The chart plots the Bitcoin price from 2011 to the present using a logarithmic scale. Although it deviates from the mean often (and sometimes dramatically), the price of Bitcoin shows a pattern that will take it to $100,000 in just over four years.
Take a look:
That's a gain of 2,280% from the current Bitcoin price of about $4,200.
This Bitcoin price chart is the brainchild of Dennis Porto, a dermatologist and a student of Management and Health Policy at Harvard University. Porto is a Bitcoin enthusiast who was just trying to make sense of the cryptocurrency's stunning growth when he realized it mirrored a pattern he'd seen before…
A Bitcoin Price Chart Based on Moore's Law
"I made the observation based on trying to imagine a world where Bitcoin is widespread," Porto told Money Morning. "Then, I imagined the path it would take from today to this time when it is widespread."
The chart shows that the Bitcoin price has doubled roughly every eight months. Right now, the price of Bitcoin is a bit ahead of schedule, with the chart suggesting it wouldn't reach $4,000 until January 2018.
The concept of something doubling at a regular interval rang a bell with Porto, and it should also be familiar to longtime followers of the tech sector. It's the essence of "Moore's Law," an observation made by Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) founder and CEO Gordon Moore in 1965.
Moore noted that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits doubles approximately every 18 months, making computing devices exponentially more powerful over time.
Applying the concept to the price of Bitcoin was something of a leap, but the chart suggests Porto's point has merit. So far, the Bitcoin price has followed the pattern.
"Whenever a technology becomes digital, it sheds the physical limitations that hinder exponential growth and improvement," Porto said. "I can't think of any reason why [Moore's Law] should be applied to computation power only and not other digital applications like digital currency."
He believes that such exponential growth is the only way Bitcoin can achieve the mass adoption it needs to succeed.
"There isn't a way that Bitcoin could 'linearly' grow to a point where it would be used widespread as a source of value or method of transaction. The only path is via exponential growth," Porto said.
Because Bitcoin has a fixed supply – only 21 million will ever be mined – the only way it can realize its potential on a global scale is for the price to go much, much higher. For instance, if Bitcoin were to become the primary means of settlement in global trade, it would need to be worth $1 million.
If the price of Bitcoin continues to follow Moore's Law, it will hit the $1 million mark at some point in 2024 – just seven years away.
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About the Author
David Zeiler, Associate Editor for Money Morning at Money Map Press, has been a journalist for more than 35 years, including 18 spent at The Baltimore Sun. He has worked as a writer, editor, and page designer at different times in his career. He's interviewed a number of well-known personalities - ranging from punk rock icon Joey Ramone to Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak.
Over the course of his journalistic career, Dave has covered many diverse subjects. Since arriving at Money Morning in 2011, he has focused primarily on technology. He's an expert on both Apple and cryptocurrencies. He started writing about Apple for The Sun in the mid-1990s, and had an Apple blog on The Sun's web site from 2007-2009. Dave's been writing about Bitcoin since 2011 - long before most people had even heard of it. He even mined it for a short time.
Dave has a BA in English and Mass Communications from Loyola University Maryland.