Australia's Former PM: War with North Korea Could Be Avoided in These 3 Steps

Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is urging the United States and China to reach a diplomatic consensus to avoid war with North Korea.

He claims that the danger of strategic miscommunication between these two parties grows likelier by the day, reported The Sydney Morning Herald on Aug. 14.

And to keep WWIII from breaking out in Asia, Rudd believes that Beijing and Washington will have to come to a "grand bargain."

A "grand bargain" is a diplomatic strategy the former Australian PM came up with himself. And its success requires one dramatic prerequisite...

That America and China should come to the bargaining table willing to give up something they don't want to.

Here are the steps that Rudd says Beijing and Washington will have to follow...

The 3 Steps to Avoiding War with North Korea

war with North Korea
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

At a conference of diplomats on Aug. 31 at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Rudd laid out the three steps Beijing and Washington must follow to truly see North Korea de-weaponized...

"First," he said, Beijing will need to accept that "the threat of a unilateral U.S. strike [on North Korea] is credible enough to warrant a change in Chinese diplomacy towards North Korea."

In other words, China will not change its ways unless it believes the United States would instigate a war on the Korean Peninsula. If China believed the United States would be so drastic, it would be willing to do more to prevent such an outcome.

Second, according to the former PM, "The U.S. would need to be clear with Beijing about what is at stake here for China. And if China succeeds in bringing about a cessation of North Korea's nuclear program, and the destruction of its existing arsenal, the U.S. would then accept [certain measures in return]."

Those measures would be, as outlined by Rudd:

  • A formal peace treaty following the armistice which has been in operation since 1953;
  • Formal diplomatic recognition of Pyongyang by the United States;
  • External security guarantees for the future of the regime and the North Korean state, provided by the Chinese, the Americans, and possibly the Russians;
  • For the Chinese then to be able to assist North Korea to continue to reform and develop the North Korean economy;
  • And finally, and most problematically, a staged program for the eventual withdrawal step-by-step of U.S. forces from South Korea.

The third step is actually meant to be a "stepping stone" - an interim action taken while trying to achieve the above measures: "A variation of the mutual freeze option currently mooted by China."

A "mutual freeze" is precisely what it sounds like: a complete halt of military actions agreed upon by both sides in a conflict.

China proposed such a freeze on March 8, in an attempt to get North Korea to freeze its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for a halt to major military exercises by American and South Korean forces. The proposal was denied within hours by Washington and Seoul.

Rudd recognizes the fragility of such a measure.

Must See: The South China Sea is about to get violent. But thanks to a small $6 U.S. defense firm with a top-secret new technology, China is about to be taken to the woodshed. Read more...

"Unless the other elements of the grand bargain are realized, resulting in the verifiable destruction of the existing North Korean arsenal, an interim step (i.e. the mutual freeze option) would not hold," he said.

Upon reading Rudd's plan, Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon declared it "fascinating." In fact, he said that it might be "the best option of all."

But, he added, "I just don't see it with the current administrations in power in Beijing and Washington."

Here's why...

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Too Much Tension, Too Little Trust

The likelihood that the United States would agree to these measures seems virtually nonexistent. After all, America has taken a decidedly hostile stance towards North Korea and even China.

Just two days ago, on Sept. 12, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned China that it could face further sanctions from Washington if it doesn't abide by new UN sanctions placed on Kim Jong Un's regime.

Those sanctions, passed that same day, include a 2-million-per-year barrel limit to the amount of refined petroleum sold to North Korea. China is the main supplier of such goods.

In response, Beijing warned Washington not to seek a regime change in Pyongyang. "The Chinese side will never allow conflict or war on the peninsula," the country's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang, said in a statement on Tuesday (Sept. 12), according to Bloomberg.

In short, the United States seems to have no faith that anything other than economic sanctions will work, and China thinks it can prevent the United States from starting a war on the peninsula.

Precisely the opposite of Rudd's "grand bargain."

What's more, Bill has identified the reason for Uncle Sam's unwillingness to compromise...

Its alliance with South Korea.

The Thorn in China's Side

Bill's been covering the "Asian arms race" for three decades. So he has an intimate understanding of exactly what kind of danger South Korea is in and why the United States is trying so desperately to avoid a military conflict.

"The North Korean People's Army Artillery Command is believed to have 12,000 pieces of cannon-type artillery and 2,300 units of multiple-rocket-launching artillery," Bill said.

And with all of that artillery pointed squarely at South Korea, Bill said, "Washington fears that any kind of a strike would lead to a retaliatory bombardment."

"The United States' concern for South Korea is also evidenced by the deployment of the THAAD batteries and the willingness of the administration to let the South construct bigger warheads on its missiles," Bill said.

And the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system is exactly how America's concern for South Korea becomes a thorn in China's side.

Basically, the defensive THAAD system does everything to make China uneasy and nothing to convince China that the United States will strike North Korea - the opposite of the conditions necessary for Rudd's "great bargain."

Back in April, Bill wrote that THAAD has the potential to provide the U.S. military with "an 'early warning' of China-launched missiles."

To many readers, the mere thought of "China-launched missiles" seemed - and still seems - totally implausible, because of the greater implication it carries: a U.S.-China war.

But Bill knows such a war is indeed a very real likelihood - arguably more likely than Rudd's "grand bargain."

Fortunately for the United States and South Korea, THAAD recently completed operational test runs.

To this success, Bill credits Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AJRD).

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And it's not too late. Currently, Aerojet is working to deliver 52 THAAD interceptors to the U.S. Army between October of this year and September of next year.

And as the North Korean threat escalates, those numbers are likely to rise.

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Trump's Secret Weapon Against Chinese Aggression: Hostilities in the South China Sea now seem imminent, and the Trump administration could be on the verge of its first major crisis. But thanks to a small $6 U.S. defense firm with a top-secret new technology, China is about to be taken to the woodshed. Frankly, you have to see it to believe it...

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