Here's When to Expect the Next Fed Rate Hike (Hint: It Won't Be Today)

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference this afternoon.

And the question on most investors' minds ahead of her announcement is, "Will there be a rate hike?"

Money Morning Capital Wave Strategist Shah Gilani has a message for investors: Don't worry, it definitely won't happen today.

But it will happen in December.

That's because the Fed is waiting for inflation to hit its desired 2% target - a fool's errand, according to Shah, because inflation might not rise for "another 10 years."

The Fed believes that low inflation discourages borrowing, which discourages growth. So the Fed thinks that without higher inflation, raising rates could stymie the economy by discouraging borrowing even further.

That's why, even though unemployment is at its lowest level in years (4.3%) and jobs are steadily increasing, it's keeping interest rates low. At least in the Fed's eyes, lower rates encourage growth.

But Shah knows that instead of inflation, the Fed should focus on job growth and low unemployment.

"[The Fed] needs to let interest rates flow where the market lets them flow. It has nothing to do with inflation," said Shah on today's "Varney & Co."

For now, Shah recommends traders keep an eye on volatility, instead of worrying about the Fed.

"As I've been telling you for a few weeks, seasonal volatility is about to return to markets as the 'sell-in-May' crowd returns from vacation and starts trading again and as money managers start dumping losing positions and shifting that cash to safer investments as they await their year-end bonuses," said Shah on Sep. 8. "Things could get very bad, very soon."

The best thing to do now, according to Shah, is be prepared. "Make sure you have your stops in place - now. Don't wait."

Watch Shah's full interview below.

Video
 

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