Since the start of 2018, gold prices have not only stayed above $1,300, but they've continued to climb higher.
Even though gold prices today have dipped around $5 per ounce, gold investors have nothing to worry about in 2018.
In fact, we're getting confirmation that the gold bull market of 2018 is just beginning.
While 2017 didn't see the surging price - and eventual collapse - of the price of gold that 2016 saw, 2017 made steady gains that will sustain through 2018.
The catalysts behind the gold price have remained steady, like the weaker dollar and a limited gold supply, on top of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Still, each of these looks set to continue helping gold reach ever-higher prices.
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While the dollar could see a small bounce at this point, it has already met one of my downside targets, and it's likely to achieve the next one before long.
That means gold and gold stocks are looking especially attractive right now, especially as valuations in the stock market continue to soar.
I'll reveal my gold price target for the next month in a bit, but first, here's how gold's price has moved over the last week.
Gold Prices Built on Their Gains Over the Last Week
The first full trading day for gold in 2018 was Tuesday, Jan. 2.
Gold prices jumped over $1,305 the night before and followed through the next morning, as the DXY fell from 92.15 to 91.80. The dollar enjoyed a small reprieve at 10:30 a.m. that took the DXY back to 92, but only momentarily. It dropped back and spent the rest of the day around 91.9.
Gold opened at $1,311 and rose steadily to $1,317 by 5:00 p.m.
On Wednesday, gold opened lower, as the dollar bounced back. The DXY would reach 92.20 by 10:30 a.m. and spent much of the day near that level. Gold then plateaued, where the metal opened at $1,314 and closed at $1,313 on the dollar's new strength.
Here's the DXY action of the past week, where you can see its volatility...
On Thursday, the dollar backed off once again, then traded mostly sideways around the 91.9 range.
That fueled more gold buying. After an overnight dip, gold opened at $1,312 and never looked back, heading consistently higher through the day. It would peak at an impressive $1,324 at 3:00 p.m., then pull back slightly to close at $1,322.
Ending the first trading week of 2018, gold opened on Friday at $1,321 even as the DXY bounced back above 92. But dollar sellers took over and slowly pressed the buck lower. By mid-afternoon, the DXY was below 92, dropping to 91.95 while gold held at $1,319.
While the dollar was volatile over the last week, it's actually been trending down over the long term. And that's a very bullish signal for gold prices in 2018...
My Gold Price Prediction for February 2018
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I think the dollar has entered a bear cycle that's likely to last for months, and possibly even years.
Consider that, one year ago, the DXY was at 102, and today, it's at 92, nearly a 10% fall.
In late December, I said the dollar could break below 93, and the next target would be 91.5. We've already seen what may be a dead cat bounce from that level, which could take the DXY back to overhead resistance near 93 (approximately at the 50-day moving average).
But I expect to see the dollar head back south from there. By the way, downward momentum is being confirmed by the RSI and MACD indicators.
If that action pans out, gold could be due for a "pause that refreshes," then prices will continue higher once the dollar breaks back down.
We've seen a tremendous move in gold since mid-December.
If gold corrects, we could see it find support at $1,300 before resuming its climb.
But even as gold continues to rise, the market's best bargains remain in gold stocks.
The gold-stocks-to-gold ratio (HUI/Gold) indicates whether gold stocks are cheap or expensive relative to gold prices. And right now, they're still extremely cheap on an historical basis, at 0.15 of the gold price.
If gold stocks were to return to their secular bull market average, they would need to more than double from current levels, with gold prices standing still.
That's unlikely, as gold has resumed its bull market and is surely headed higher. So gold stocks have a potentially explosive year ahead of them.
As for gold itself, its price will continue rising.
In the short term, I'm still looking for $1,350 by late February and for gold to possibly take out 2016's $1,375 high by June.
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