Gold prices are finally sending us some good signs, and I think the gold rally we're witnessing could turn up the gas even sooner.
After hitting a low near $1,170 in mid-August, gold prices bounced back up, touching as high as $1,202 intraday as the U.S. dollar retreated after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's rate hike plans.
Plus, worries about Trump's connections to Cohen and Manafort's legal troubles drove investors into gold.
But recent Fed minutes cemented expectations of a September rate hike.
That, along with the U.S.-China tariffs that just kicked in, boosted the greenback, and the price of gold retreated, leading to doubt that gold was finally done with its multi-month correction.
In my view, the dollar has a lot further to fall.
And that prospect is driving my latest gold price prediction to be a very bullish one...
How the Gold Price Rally Kicked Into Gear
After hitting a fleeting momentary low of $1,165 at midnight on Aug. 16, gold powered higher through Wednesday morning (Aug. 22).
That's when the yellow metal briefly touched $1,202, as the dollar was in full retreat and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded just below the 95-point level. The dollar index was pressured as news of legal troubles for both Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort (and Trump's links to them) were weighed by traders.
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As a result, gold simultaneously benefited from safe-haven buying as impeachment calls grew louder. The DXY later consolidated around 95.10 while gold prices pulled back to $1,195.
Once the Fed minutes were released on Wednesday, the DXY mounted a small, renewed rally.
Here's how the DXY action looked over the past week...
On Friday (Aug. 24) morning, spot gold prices began climbing in anticipation of Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.
Although Powell reiterated steady rate hikes were the best path forward, he downplayed the chances of economic overheating.
Gold was then up by $17 over Thursday's close, reaching $1,202 as the DXY dropped back to 95.10.
And this even though Powell said he was prepared to do "whatever it takes" if inflation looks like it's getting out of control. At midday, gold was up nearly $23, trading at $1,207.
We're still in the earliest stages of the latest gold price rally, but I'm optimistic about where gold is heading next.
In fact, what I'm seeing from technical indicators has me even more bullish.
Here's what's behind my latest gold price forecast for September 2018...
Where Gold Prices Are Heading in September
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As usual, I'm paying careful attention to the dollar.
We can see very clearly the sudden recent run-up looks like a temporary blip to 97. At the time of writing, the DXY is back at 94.73, and I think it's headed lower.
Take a look at its trajectory over the last year...
Here's why I expect it to keep dropping, at least for now...
A strong dollar is not good for Trump, and it's not good for U.S. exporters/multinationals. Plus, Trump's budget is well on its way to $1 trillion in annual deficits.
That's why Trump's doing what he can to talk down the dollar, like criticizing the Fed for raising rates. Even with Powell confirming a steady pace of hikes in recent minutes and at Jackson Hole, the dollar has lost 200 basis points in the last 10 days, so Trump's war of words is having some effect.
If the DXY does indeed head lower, look for it to perhaps trade between 92 and 95 but eventually to head into the 80s.
As for gold, the action on Friday was impressive...
By midday, spot gold had reached $1,208 on dollar weakness.
Consider that based on the latest COT report, large speculators had positioned themselves net short gold. This was the first instance since December 2001, nearly 17 years ago.
In 2001, gold was beginning a decade-long six-fold return.
If strength follows through, gold's next target would be the $1,220-$1,230 range, then $1,260.
It's still very early days in gold's rebound from its recent low near $1,165. If a risk-on attitude returns to stocks, gold could well retreat once again.
But the solid move above $1,200 and the strong chance of a major short squeeze here could be a signal that strength is back for gold.
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