Cryptocurrency predictions from a broad range of the crypto community suggest 2019 will be a pivotal year.
The six people who responded to my brief survey come from a variety of crypto perspectives, from prolific video personality Naomi Brockwell to Jeffrey Tucker, the
Editorial Director for the American Institute of Economic Research, to outspoken cybersecurity pioneer John McAfee.
I asked for their thoughts on the crypto bear market of 2018 as well as what they expect from 2019.
And they did not disappoint.
I hope you will be as impressed with this collection of cryptocurrency predictions and insights as I was, and that you will find them useful as crypto enters its second decade.
The answers have been lightly edited for style and clarity.
Naomi Brockwell
Cryptocurrency Video Personality
What's your take on the crypto crash of 2018 and the reversal of sentiment from positive to negative?
I disagree that the sentiment turned negative - I think people who understand the tech are more excited than ever about the amazing developments in the space. I would argue that the price correction was to be expected, especially after the ICO boom of 2017, and the downturn may have also had a lot to do with the increased regulation in the space this year, making it harder for people to move crypto around.
What are your expectations for crypto in 2019? Do you see any major developments on the horizon?
I predict a new wave of users onboarded to crypto in 2019 from the artist/content creator sphere. The censorship and demonetization of many prominent YouTubers has led to a lot of people looking for alternative systems that don't give payment processors so much control, and crypto is the answer. The question is whether the crypto community can make the onboarding process as frictionless as possible for these new users, and get them comfortable with crypto. I'm especially looking at bitbacker.io as a new Patreon for the cryptocurrency age.
Where do you think Bitcoin/crypto prices are headed in 2019? Do you see prices higher or lower at the end of the year?
Always hard to make price predictions, but I think 2019 will end up for the year. But not sure we will see any new all-time highs. We'll have to see what happens!
Michael A. Robinson
Editor of the Strategic Tech Investor newsletter
What's your take on the crypto crash of 2018 and the reversal of sentiment from positive to negative?
Several factors were behind this. Let's start with the rough beginning to 2018 after South Korea talked about banning crypto trading. Since many traders and miners are from Asia, that sent prices down pretty quickly. Shortly thereafter, China also said it would crack down on crypto trading, handing us a one-two punch.
Meanwhile, we saw a speculative feeding frenzy surrounding ICOs. A lot of money left Bitcoin and Ethereum to chase after that fad. And as we saw, the ICO market completely collapsed on concerns of an SEC crackdown that began in March of 2018. The SEC stepped up its efforts, and that market has basically vanished. While the two may not seem to be directly linked, BTC traders took the news pretty hard, fearing a wider crackdown on cryptos themselves.
And let's not forget cryptos are not immune from general investing trends. Deutsche Bank recently released data showing that 89% of all assets it tracks were down at the end of October, the broadest decline since 1901. Of course, a lot of that had to do with profit taking, even on stocks, real estate, Bitcoin, and other leading cryptos.
What are your expectations for crypto in 2019? Do you see any major developments on the horizon?
I'd like to see a further shake out in the crypto market. Just five years ago there were only a handful of digital currencies. While Bitcoin remains the gold standard and Ethereum is the market's silver, simply too many new currencies were being created. At one point earlier in 2018, there were more than 1,650 cryptos trading hands, many at fractions of cents. That's just way too many at this point in the market's history, as we are still in the early innings.
I do see one very bright spot for the field - the mash-up of the blockchain and the cloud. The blockchain is an unstoppable trend that I believe could support $8 trillion in global trade in as little as a decade. Most firms, however, lack the manpower and technical expertise to jump into blockchain development. But firms like Microsoft [NASDAQ: MSFT], SAP SE [NYSE: SAP], Deloitte, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise [NYSE: HPE] are offering blockchain-as-a-service. This bodes well for the growth of the platform as well as providing a long-term base for Bitcoin and Ethereum, the latter being designed with smart contracts in mind.
Where do you think Bitcoin/crypto prices are headed in 2019? Do you see prices higher or lower at the end of the year?
Well, one thing that went completely unnoticed by the media and their need for negative stories is the fact that the Bitcoin price was relatively stable for a couple of critical months - trading in the $6,000 to $6,500 range from early September to early November - before selling off with the rest of the world's investment markets. For 2019, I'd like to see another base of that nature establish itself. That kind of calm would allow investors to enter the market on a more measured basis, rather than chasing fast returns only to sell at the first sign of trouble. It also would give enterprise clients for blockchain-as-a-service more confidence that this is a stable arena, something IT managers like to see as they plan ahead.
Right now, the price as listed on BitStamp shows BTC trading above the 20-day moving average and making a run at the 50-day line. Right now that 50-day line looks like key resistance rather than critical support. The data I have makes me think we will hover around that 50-day line for a while. But if it breaks through on solid momentum and holds, we could see gains of 25% to 40% this year.
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Anthem Hayek Blanchard
CEO of AnthemGold, a gold-backed crypto asset token company
What's your take on the crypto crash of 2018 and the reversal of sentiment from positive to negative?
My wife and co-founder President Cynthia Blanchard has joked that back in 2017, the environment was so outrageous that our dogs Ulysses and Beauregard could have raised millions of dollars on their own token sale. My take on the crypto crash of 2018 is a necessary event of draining out billions of dollars of misallocated capital on projects without purposes, let alone business models or development plans to build public blockchain software.
What are your expectations for crypto in 2019? Do you see any major developments on the horizon?
I expect in 2019 we will see the beginnings of commercialization of blockchain software. Think about the fact that today public blockchains have a market cap of over $100 billion. A year ago today, they got close to a market cap of $1 trillion. And yet today there is no commercial use of Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other public blockchains as business software. I think in 2019, largely because of the crypto crash of 2018, we will see public blockchain teams and their communities accelerate their focus on creating workable business models toward the commercialization of public blockchain software.
Where do you think Bitcoin/crypto prices are headed in 2019? Do you see prices higher or lower at the end of the year?
I think we will see a rise in Bitcoin prices and cryptocurrency prices generally in 2019 in national (fiat) currency terms. Given Bitcoin is about 80% off its all-time high of $20,000 a year ago, and some other top-100 public blockchain tokens are still down over 90% from their all-time highs, I think a rebound is logical. Newcomers to Bitcoin and public blockchain token economic history over the past 10 years should know that since Bitcoin's birth on Jan. 3, 2009, the last bull to bear market run was already the industry's fourth cycle:
- August 2010 $0.06 to June 2011 $30, up 49,900%
- Down 93% November 2011 to $2 to April 2013 $230, up 11,400%
- Down 71% July 2013 to $67 to November 2013 $1,147, up 1,611%
- Down 85% January 2015 to $180 to December 2017 $19,535, up 10,753%
- Down 82% Novemver 2018 to $3,448
(source: unbnkd)
Related: Crypto will see several major developments this year. Here are my cryptocurrency predictions for 2019...
Jeffrey Tucker
Editorial Director for the American Institute of Economic Research, a free market--oriented academic think tank
What's your take on the crypto crash of 2018 and the reversal of sentiment from positive to negative?
Prices of these assets are what they are for a reason, and it is the usual one: supply and demand. 2017's run-up reflected wild enthusiasm, but then the reality set in that Bitcoin cannot scale, that the crypto asset market was becoming diffuse, there are many worthless tokens floating alongside real ones, and that the whole thing is truly in an experimental stage. The enthusiasm in 2018 drifted from plain tokens to blockchain projects, and that's where it is today. There is no crypto winter in the technology, just the legacy tokens.
What are your expectations for crypto in 2019? Do you see any major developments on the horizon?
Adoption of blockchain technology will continue to grow, programmers in the space will be ever more in demand, and developers in the coin sector will innovate in consumer services. Companies that have focused entirely on legacy crypto assets will continue to shrink in employees and marketing.
Where do you think Bitcoin/crypto prices are headed in 2019? Do you see prices higher or lower at the end of the year?
My instinct suggests that the pessimism of 2018 will moderate, but there is no way to know for sure. The "to the moon" crowd has been seriously humbled. Early in 2018, many industry insiders predicted $3,000 Bitcoin. From my perspective, that is phenomenally high, remembering that I've followed this tech since the price reached $1.
Ray Youssef
Founder of Paxful, a peer-to-peer Bitcoin marketplace
What's your take on the crypto crash of 2018 and the reversal of sentiment from positive to negative?
Was there ever a reversal of sentiment on how people see Bitcoin? Yes, there is a massive dip in the Bitcoin price, but that doesn't mean that people are turning away from using Bitcoin. This is the time when people will use Bitcoin fully. All those who are ready to change the world through peer-to-peer finance will move now. The volume of trades using bitcoins is increasing in Paxful, and a lot more people will see the value of Bitcoin as an alternative to preserve their wealth and to make a profit. The lower the Bitcoin price, the better it is for peer-to-peer financial adoption.
What are your expectations for crypto in 2019? Do you see any major developments on the horizon?
I expect crypto to continue to strengthen. More and more countries are suffering from hyperinflation, and people from those countries are starting to look at Bitcoin as a viable alternative. The world is creating a demand for Bitcoin, and Paxful will be right there to fill that demand. In 2019, people will realize that Bitcoin is not only for speculation (risky investment), but they will also realize that it can be used for payments, e-commerce, remittance, wealth preservation, and social good.
Where do you think Bitcoin/crypto prices are headed in 2019? Do you see prices higher or lower at the end of the year?
We all know how volatile Bitcoin's price can be. Nobody was expecting the recent dip, and it was a pretty significant dip. And yet peer-to-peer Bitcoin trading is reaching all-time highs! People are turning to #P2PFinance, and they don't care what the price is, nor should you! At Paxful, we don't focus on the price, we focus on how we can educate the community and other people about the free financial system that peer-to-peer finance presents to the whole world. That is where the future is: a system fully governed by its users.
And finally, we hear from John McAfee, who offers a surprising Bitcoin price prediction for the end of 2019...
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John McAfee
Cybersecurity pioneer and outspoken crypto proponent
What's your take on the crypto crash of 2018 and the reversal of sentiment from positive to negative?
More people are using crypto than ever before, and the fundamental advantages of crypto over fiat have not changed. Fledgling markets are notoriously volatile and do not necessarily represent the true value of something. People need to simply relax and ride this out. One thing is certain: The enormous advantages and flexibility of crypto points to a total replacement of fiat currencies within a generation
What are your expectations for crypto in 2019? Do you see any major developments on the horizon?
Privacy coins will become more popular as people wake up to the fact that anyone can monitor funds coming into and leaving most crypto wallets. Privacy coins provide anonymity for users and all user transactions.
Where do you think Bitcoin/crypto prices are headed in 2019? Do you see prices higher or lower at the end of the year?
I believe that Bitcoin will end 2019 somewhere between $50,000 and $100,000.
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About the Author
David Zeiler, Associate Editor for Money Morning at Money Map Press, has been a journalist for more than 35 years, including 18 spent at The Baltimore Sun. He has worked as a writer, editor, and page designer at different times in his career. He's interviewed a number of well-known personalities - ranging from punk rock icon Joey Ramone to Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak.
Over the course of his journalistic career, Dave has covered many diverse subjects. Since arriving at Money Morning in 2011, he has focused primarily on technology. He's an expert on both Apple and cryptocurrencies. He started writing about Apple for The Sun in the mid-1990s, and had an Apple blog on The Sun's web site from 2007-2009. Dave's been writing about Bitcoin since 2011 - long before most people had even heard of it. He even mined it for a short time.
Dave has a BA in English and Mass Communications from Loyola University Maryland.