Why the Dow Jones Today Could Be Volatile Despite the Close of the Mueller Probe

Garrett Baldwin

The Dow Jones today could be shaky despite Robert Mueller ending his investigation into U.S. President Donald Trump's suspected collusion with Russia.

Attorney General William Barr and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein determined the evidence was "not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction of justice offense," noting the government would have to prove such a case "beyond a reasonable doubt."

The end of the Mueller probe should be an optimistic sign for stocks, but the most important recession indicator just flashed over the weekend. More on what that means below.

Here are the numbers from Friday for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq:

Now, here's a closer look at today's Money Morning insight, the most important market events, and stocks to watch.

The Top Stock Market Stories for Monday

• President Trump was crowing over the weekend after the Mueller investigation failed to produce enough evidence to show that he obstructed justice. Attorney General William Barr released a summary of special counsel Mueller's findings yesterday, one that noted that neither Trump nor his campaign "conspired or coordinated with the Russian government." Trump said Sunday that the ongoing "Russian collusion" story and investigation was "an illegal takedown that failed." During a brief discussion with reporters at a south Florida airport, Trump said, "It's a shame that our country had to go through this." Some Democrats – particularly front-runners for the party's 2020 nomination – are demanding that Attorney General Barr release the full Mueller report.

• Brexit is back in focus. This Friday was supposed to be the deadline for Britain to leave the European Union. More than 1,000 days after British voters passed a referendum to leave the trade block, Parliament is still no closer to a deal than they were on the day after the vote. The European Union has granted Prime Minister Theresa May two more weeks to strike a new deal or crash out of the trade bloc.
• Warning signs are flashing for the U.S. economy. On Friday, a key report showed that U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in March. More importantly, the spread between the three-month Treasury bond and the 10-year bond yields inverted for the first time since 2007. Many investors see an inverted yield curve as a sign of a pending recession.
• This week, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will visit China for another two days to discuss a trade deal with China. This is the first face-to-face meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials since President Trump delayed a March deadline that would have slapped tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese imports.

Stocks to Watch Today: AAPL, BA, GS, PZZA

• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will be making headlines Monday. The tech giant will offer updates on its long-anticipated subscription television service. The company has teased customers for years about Apple TV. Today, the firm is expected to offer details on pricing and how Apple's television service would be distributed. In addition, look for a few updates on the company's planned credit card partnership with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS).

5G Is Coming: The Tech Breakthrough of the Century Could Rest on This $6 Stock – Get All the Details Here

• Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) will be back under government scrutiny this week. The U.S. Senate subcommittee on aviation and space will hold a hearing to discuss airline safety in the wake of this month's fatal crash in Ethiopia. The crash was the second in five months involving a Boeing 737 Max 8 jet. Last week, Boeing stock continued to struggle. Indonesian airline Garuda announced plans to cancel a $6 billion order for Boeing 737 Max jets due to passenger safety concerns.
• Pizza chain Papa John's International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) has announced a "big" addition to its board of directors. On Friday, the firm said that NBA Hall-of-Famer Shaquille O'Neal will join the board room. O'Neal, or "Shaq," plans to invest in nine Papa John's stores in Atlanta and become a brand ambassador in company advertising.
• Look for earnings reports from Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) and Winnebago Industries Inc. (NYSE: WGO).

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Garrett Baldwin

About the Author

Browse Garrett's articles | View Garrett's research services

Garrett Baldwin is a globally recognized research economist, financial writer, and consultant with degrees from Northwestern, Johns Hopkins, Purdue, and Indiana University. He is a seasoned financial and political risk analyst, with a focus on stocks, hedge funds, private equity, blockchain, and housing policy. He has conducted risk assessment projects for clients in 27 countries, and consulted on policy and financial operations for some of the nation's largest financial institutions, including a $1.5 trillion credit fund, a $43 billion credit and auto loan giant, as well as two of the largest Wall Street banks by assets under management.

Garrett joined Money Map Press as an economist and researcher in 2011, specializing in alternative strategies with an emphasis on fundamental and technical analysis.

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