How the Dow Jones Industrial Average Is Pricing in a Fed Rate Cut

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise today with investors bullish on chances the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. And here's what analysts say this morning's prices reflect…

But first, the numbers from Friday for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq:

Now, here's a closer look at today's Money Morning insight, the most important market events, and stocks to watch.

The Top Stock Market Stories for Monday

• The busiest week of earnings season kicks off this morning. Leading today's calendar is Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL). The oilfield service giant reported net income of $75 million for Q2 2019 and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09, falling short of its Q1 EPS of $0.17.

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• Investors are also looking for confirmation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during its July meeting next week. Markets currently expect a rate cut of 25 basis points. However, there is plenty of opposition among members of the Fed Open Market Committee. On Friday, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said he doesn't believe the first rate cut since 2008 is necessary at the moment. Rosengren cited the strength of the U.S. economy, economic growth, and increasing inflation for his stance. According to the futures market, investors have priced in a 100% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.
• Oil prices are moving higher as tensions across the Middle East accelerate. Iran said over the weekend that its seizure of a British tanker was a response to the United Kingdom's recent decision to impound an Iranian supertanker. New video released on Saturday showed Iranian soldiers rappelling to the British tanker from a helicopter. Despite the ongoing tension across the region, concerns about a global economic cooldown are weighing on crude prices. The price of WTI crude oil hovered under $56 per barrel, while Brent crude sat just under $62.50.

Stocks to Watch Today: DB, WHR, DIS

• Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) continues to rattle investor confidence across Europe. The largest financial services giant in Germany will report earnings this week, and investors are seeking more insight into the firm's planned restructuring. It's been two years since the IMF called Deutsche Bank "the most important net contributor to systemic risks" to the global financial system. The reason is that the company has more than $40 trillion in notional derivatives exposure to the banking system. But investors are missing a bigger problem. Here's the real danger to the European financial sector moving forward.
• Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) is the king of the box office. Over the weekend, the entertainment giant reported a massive opening weekend for its live-action film "The Lion King." The movie earned $185 million during its first weekend. That figure was the best weekend debut in July, ever, topping the previous record held by "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2″ from 2011.
• Shares of Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR) are in focus as the home appliance giant plans to report earnings this morning. The firm has been affected by higher steel and aluminum prices as it attempts to reduce costs. Investors are also concerned about the firm's forward guidance given the ongoing threat of a global economic slowdown.
• Look for additional earnings reports from Cadence Design Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNS), Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: CALM), Crane Co. (NYSE: CR), Hexcel Corp. (NYSE: HXL), and PetMed Express Inc. (NASDAQ: PETS).

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