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5 Ways to Beat the Fed (and Crush Inflation)

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The Long and the Short of It: How to Profit from the Trends Driving the Dollar
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Stocks: BAC, GLD, GS, UDN

The Long and the Short of It: How to Profit from the Trends Driving the Dollar

By Garrett Baldwin, Executive Producer, Money Morning • June 3, 2020

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Garrett BaldwinGarrett Baldwin

We might not like it, and we haven't asked for it, but the fact is we're invested in a market unlike any other - the most uncertain and volatile for 100 years or more.

But that means savvy, nimble investors are presented with opportunities just as rare.

Whether that's the race for a COVID-19 therapy or vaccine, or new technologies that make remote business and communication better, or space exploration, sweeping geopolitical changes, or something yet unknown but just around the corner, the most profitable investors will be those who are ready for anything and everything that might come their way.

And that's precisely what we'll be doing in my new, free service, The Long and the Short of It. It's perfect for all investing and trading styles.

For conservative investors, there will be "first mover" chances to reap rewards on long-term trends that will take 12, 18 months, or longer to unfold.

And for aggressive investors, there will be "fast mover" plays that will see us cashing in on short-term events that could present paydays next week or 90 days from now.

I'll tell you everything you need to know to fill your time horizon with profits.

Investors this past March reminded me of those San Fermín festival attendees in Pamplona, Spain, running for their lives from gigantic, furious male cattle...

In the span of two months, the United States dollar went from the most coveted asset in the world... to one of the most dangerous to hold in bulk.

Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) released a note revealing that it is betting against the U.S. dollar. The investment bank anticipates even more investors will rush into the stock market as the U.S. economy reopens.

It's not just the prospect of the flood back into equities that could lead to a drop in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Federal Reserve and Congress' massive effort to provide liquidity to the economy has dramatically expanded the central bank's balance sheet and sent the U.S. debt levels to sky-high levels. The Fed effectively created $2.3 trillion out of thin air in April in an effort to spur loans to cities and small- and medium-sized businesses.

By the end of this crisis, the Fed's balance sheet could easily top $10 trillion.

In addition, growing unrest across America has fueled criticism of the United States and uncertainty about its standing in the world. The threat of another wave of coronavirus and increasing unrest across America could reduce the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

There are other threats to the dollar that continue to creep in, just under the radar.

China's recent security law regarding Hong Kong's status could upend the peg between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, countries across the Middle East are again reconsidering their peg to the U.S. dollar following the recent price collapse of oil. Their peg to the dollar effectively forces these nations to price crude oil in dollars and drives demand for the U.S. currency. "De-pegging" from the dollar would reduce that demand. Both of these events would be significant and will likely trend as potential concerns in the years ahead.

And whether your investing style is aggressive, conservative, or somewhere in between, there are ways to profit...

Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…

Garrett BaldwinGarrett Baldwin

About the Author

Browse Garrett's articles | View Garrett's research services

Garrett Baldwin is a globally recognized research economist, financial writer, consultant, and political risk analyst with decades of trading experience and degrees in economics, cybersecurity, and business from Johns Hopkins, Purdue, Indiana University, and Northwestern.

… Read full bio

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