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I would almost be tired of saying it… if it wasn't so incredible: Bitcoin, the granddaddy of cryptocurrencies everywhere, just keeps on charging ahead.
As recently as this past weekend, I had a near-term price target in the neighborhood of $72,000, and as of Tuesday morning, Bitcoin was just under $9,000 away from that level. If it keeps going at its recent pace, it could hit $72,000 in about two weeks – and I'll have to revise my forecast again.
Notice I said "if" it keeps its current pace. That's a pretty big "if," because we've got a huge potential catalyst coming later today with the initial public offering of Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN).
This should be big – maybe one of Bitcoin's biggest weeks ever. Here's what you need to know…
Coinbase Could Be a Huge Catalyst
If you've never heard of it, it's a name you should know whether you trade cryptocurrencies, stocks, or both.
Coinbase is the biggest, most popular U.S.-based crypto exchange, with around 56 million users worldwide; the company took in $1.3 billion in revenue in 2020, the same year Bitcoin notched a 300%-plus bull run that's continued, more or less unbroken, to today.
Bitcoin and all kinds of major cryptos hit records or fresh highs yesterday, and I don't think all-time highs the day before the IPO is a coincidence. In fact, we've seen this kind of activity before.
Take a look back near the very beginning of this six-month Bitcoin chart…
It looks like the bottom of a steep uphill climb, doesn't it?
RECORD-BREAKING RUN: Bitcoin could very well smash Tom's latest price prediction. There's still some time to act, but as this chart shows, it could soon be too late. View here…
PayPal Holdings Inc.'s (NASDAQ: PYPL) big October 2020 announcement was an incredible breakthrough for Bitcoin and other cryptos – one of a couple of important turning points we've seen over the past 12 months. PayPal has more than 361 million active users as of the third quarter of 2020, and its move meant that more than 361 million people could, if they wanted to, get their hands on Bitcoin more easily than ever before. PayPal, Square Inc. (NYSE: SQ), Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) – just about every time a big payment processor or credit card adopts or embraces crypto, Bitcoin surges because it means more mainstream acceptance.
That mainstream acceptance works in other ways, too. I'm talking about the rapidly increasing amount of Bitcoin owned by big institutions; that's another bullish trend that shows no sign of letting up. As early as last summer, Fidelity Investments polled 800 companies, and more than 25% of them reported owning Bitcoin. Bitcoin rocketed in February when Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) announced it was parking around 5% of its cash pile, $1.5 billion, into Bitcoin.
By this point, four companies have scooped up around 40% of the world's annual Bitcoin supply.
And now the Coinbase IPO is here. I don't think it could've come at a better time; it's taking that mainstream acceptance to the next level.
What This IPO Means for Investors
Coinbase might be one of the most hotly anticipated IPOs ever – I'm certainly looking forward to it! The company is going the direct listing route, which a lot of big tech companies have done lately, cutting out the usual middlemen at the investment banks. That's a smart move that'll save the company money in the long run. It will avoid dilution, too; management plans to offer around 115 million shares of common stock to the public.
Most folks agree the company's valuation could hit $100 billion, and I don't see why it couldn't. Personally, I think $100 billion is on the conservative side, and by that I mean "cheap." This stock could be a great buy, and a nice "kicker" for the crypto profits I hope you've been taking in.
RELATED: It seems like no one is paying attention to this unique crypto phenomenon, but Tom's uncovered double- and even triple-digit moves in a matter of days nearly every time Bitcoin jumps. Watch this…
Almost as important, this IPO is a big deal because Bitcoin and other cryptos have had years and years of pushback and skepticism from regulators in D.C. and fat cats on Wall Street (though, you've got to admit, those fat cats have been coming around more and more lately). I've been in crypto since just after the beginning – first as a miner – and that constant pushback from the powers that be has been incredibly frustrating for folks who believe in the value and usefulness of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general.
It's been frustrating in more ways than one, because it's done quite a bit to keep crypto prices lower than they should be. We've been waiting for years for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to come around and approve a U.S.-traded Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. It's too early to tell, but the Coinbase IPO could help break the dam there.
I think this is the beginning of the end of that kind of resistance and doubt – and I'm not the only one who thinks so. Marcus Swanepoel, CEO of crypto platform Luno, told CNBC, "I think having a company of that size be public is going to help a lot of people realize that this is not just an asset class to take seriously, but a business to take seriously."
For investors, this stock might be the best chance yet to get exposure to Bitcoin without actually owning any. I've got to say, though: I've always encouraged folks to own Bitcoin. I realize $63,000 is a lot to spend on one investment, but these days it's easy to own as much or as little Bitcoin as you like. You can own fractions of it – $6,300, $630, or even $6.30 if you feel that's what's best for you.
Now, interestingly, the one thing you can't do with Coinbase, at least not just yet, is trade options on it. Just bide your time, though – options are coming, and probably soon. Not a lot of folks realize this, but it's usually impossible in the United States to trade contracts on freshly minted IPOs. Normally, a stock has to have closed above an agreed-on minimum benchmark price for at least five trading sessions. There are some other criteria, too; during that five-day period, market officials want to see a public float of at least 7 million shares owned by a minimum of 2,000 shareholders before there'll be an options market for the stock, and they need it to trade on one of the big exchanges.
That said, I don't think COIN will have any trouble meeting any and all of those criteria, so we could be looking at Coinbase options in about a week or so. I'm definitely watching out.
I think we'll look back on 2020 as the year an incredible bull run started, not just in crypto, but stocks, too. That was the year tens of millions of new, novice investors dove headfirst into the markets with apps. These folks are aggressive, buying left and right with no regard for risk. I mean, these millennials are putting $11 million up for grabs every second of every trading day!
But in the midst of all the craziness, I noticed some interesting patterns of what seemed like random buying. My hunch played out, and my backtesting revealed opportunities for 300% in three days… 471% in 19 days… and even 650% in eight days. I'm calling these "Surge Strike trades," and I'm going fully public with my research findings tomorrow – LIVE – online. This presentation is totally free, but you have to click right here to RSVP and save your spot.
About the Author
Tom Gentile, options trading specialist for Money Map Press, is widely known as America's No. 1 Pattern Trader thanks to his nearly 30 years of experience spotting lucrative patterns in options trading. Tom has taught over 300,000 traders his option trading secrets in a variety of settings, including seminars and workshops. He's also a bestselling author of eight books and training courses.