Ocugen Stock Is Like Catching Lightning in a Bottle

To say that Ocugen stock has been hot this year would be one of the biggest understatements of the decade.

Ocugen Inc. (NASDAQ: OCGN) has seen its stock price gain 592% so far this year and almost 4,000% over the past 52 weeks.

The stock has gone from $0.18 to as much as $18 this year.

But will the stock continue its hot streak?

Before the big move, Ocugen was small biotech working on developing gene therapies to cure blindness diseases. It had no products in trials yet and was losing about $20 million a year.

Then it announced a deal to commercialize the COVID-19 vaccine being developed by India's Bharat Biotech. Bharat Biotech is an experienced vaccine producer, and its COVID-19 vaccine, COVAXIN, was approved for emergency use in India.

COVAXIN also uses the more traditional vaccine methodology using inactivated virus instead of other vaccine manufacturers' RNA and viral vector methods. But Covaxin may have some advantages over other vaccines. It does not need to be stored at the frigid temperatures of the shots from Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA). In a study released in India, COVAXIN showed potential effectiveness against the Brazil variant of COVID-19.

Previous studies had shown that COVAXIN also did well with the United Kingdom variant, early results from phase 3 testing show that the drug has about an 80% efficacy rate.

It is probably going to be a very effective drug when all is said and done, and we would not be surprised to see Bharat Biotech sell millions of doses around the world.

It's no wonder investors have piled into OCGN stock over the last year and continue to be bullish.

The big question is: Should you buy Ocugen stock now?

Let's take a look...

Ocugen Stock Is a Trade, Not an Investment

The biggest driver in Ocugen's growth is its deal with Bharat Biotech.

Ocugen has a generous 45% split of profits for the drug, but it has one major problem: The split is on sales of the drug in the United States.

The United States already has enough vaccines on hand or already ordered to vaccinate everyone.

We have been sending extra doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine to Canada and Mexico.

Now we are sending excess doses to India, the home market of Bharat Biotech.

Unless you have avoided the news altogether the past few weeks, you know that India is on the verge of a COVID-19 disaster. India is averaging 373,000 new cases a day.

According to reports from the world's second-most populous nation, hospitals are being overrun, and funeral pyres light the night sky.

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India has a severe vaccine shortage right now. It is improbable any vaccine from India makes its way to the United States this year.

If and when it does get here, Ocugen plans to target school kids between 12 and 16 once approved.

That's a decent sized market and could give it eventual sales of $500 million or so provided no other company also aggressively targets that market.

That's a big maybe.

Given all that, should we just avoid the stock?

That depends.

If you are a buy and hold long-term investor, then yes, you should avoid the stock.

Paying around $2.5 billion for a company that might have $500 million in sales next year or the year after is not a winning proposition.

If you are a more aggressive speculator that likes to trade, shares of Ocugen are a powerful momentum play right now.

This stock could continue to melt up and double or even triple from current levels.

It could start falling back to earth tomorrow.

If you want to try and catch lightning in a bottle, then place your order and set a trailing stop at your pain point.

Don't bet the farm, but we have seen stocks like Ocugen catch fire this year and reward aggressive speculators with fantastic profits.

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