Postcards - Pay Close Attention if This Stock Starts To Fall

Dear Old Friend,

The Florida Republic is a state of mind. But it’s also a reminder that people don’t have to live the way they do in pockets of America.

In the last 48 hours, I’ve traveled from the third-safest city in the world (Zurich, Switzerland) to the 17th most dangerous. That’s something worth discussing…

But first. Here’s what you need to know today…

Here Comes the Bulls-h… (Look at This Chart)

Two weeks ago, the markets fluttered on concerns about the debt ceiling crisis. While all eyes remain on Janet Yellen’s “artificial” interest rate pending due to the Treasury General Account expansion… the bullish analysts are back.

The S&P 500 is up about 20% from the October low – which was the bottom for this market. The multiple pivots among central banks at the time and the sharp uptick in insider buying support the narrative that many people missed the bottom just as they did in March 2020. But is this the end of a choppy, range-driven market?

We can’t see it. Apple (AAPL) is starting to move in the opposite direction. Nancy Pelosi sold $1 million in AAPL stock this week. It appears that she is a trader. Apple’s 14-day RSI and MFI fell from overbought levels…

Keep a close eye on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY). Historically, a move to 70, which seems these articles are trying to foster, leads to a reversal. Remember – the purpose of the market is to sell.

So, look for funds to try one last time to sell at a short-term top, and give us one last test of the 4,000 level from any adverse momentum event that fuels a downturn.

Finally, on today’s market side… I’ve discussed the importance of the “7 to 5 portfolio” – a strategy focusing on strong fiscal management and steep turnaround upside. Companies like Ovintiv (OVV) and Pangaea Logistics (PANL) fit the bill perfectly, offer unique business models, and fit the contrarian bill. We’ll talk more about OVV and PANL this weekend.

This Dysfunction is Unacceptable…

My hometown, Baltimore, is less safe than El Salvador, El Salvador, according to a 2020 report by USA Today.

Baltimore is only one of three cities in America with no county oversight. And it shows when consecutive mayors wind up behind bars. It brings me no joy to read its newspaper headlines. Its schools are broken. Despite having the third-highest funding in AMERICA for its school system, we read reports that 13 local high schools in the city had “zero proficiency” in mathematics.

Something bigger is responsible for this failure.

These students deserved better – because you cannot achieve financial freedom, a better life, and opportunity without the blessing of a math education. Leaders throw a lot of money at the problem… and have nothing to show for it.

What’s the next solution – the leaders beckon? The answer is more taxpayer money (a “fair share.”) Chicago is the same.

I lived in and left both cities. I can’t go back. Neither should you. Not after seeing the health and wealth of the Gulf Coast or Switzerland. Not when I show you what is possible…

See you out there,

Garrett Baldwin

Florida Republic Capital (Available on Substack)


About the Author

Garrett Baldwin is a globally recognized research economist, financial writer, consultant, and political risk analyst with decades of trading experience and degrees in economics, cybersecurity, and business from Johns Hopkins, Purdue, Indiana University, and Northwestern.

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