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postcards from the florida republic
An independent and profitable state of mind.
When a government man with a big ego starts blathering on about "Agenda 2030" and the state of fossil fuels…
…you need to understand the endgame.
The United Nations has targeted oil and gas – despite all the fuels’ benefits I touted yesterday.
Yes. I’m very bullish on industrial solar, and I invest in industrial batteries, and I believe we should employ any possible energy source – from hydroelectric and wind to natural gas and nuclear.
But there’s one problem with the UN's Agenda 2030, the never-ending rush to carbon-free energy, and the demonization of natural gas (Note: Natural gas is WHY the rate of U.S. carbon emissions has been dropping since my time in graduate school.)
And that problem is…
We don’t have enough freaking metals. Nowhere near enough. The "Green Transition" is one reason why a Generational Commodity Bull Market is coming. Getting those metals out of the ground and into play in anything like the quantities needed is going to mint fortunes.
We Need Russia… and a Lot of Diesel Fuel
In December, I attended a presentation by geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan, hosted by Odeon Capital. Zeihan discussed globalization and the role of Russia in commodities.
The news was quite troubling for a world that seems to be making a dramatic commitment to reshaping the global energy systems without a deeper understanding of our metal needs, precious, base, and otherwise.
Let’s just look at the simple numbers behind this transition.
To start, we need three times the amount of copper produced today.
That figure is not factoring in any major demographic shifts of a world that is trying to get richer or where population is expanding in the decades ahead. That figure is also not factoring in "Dr. Copper" and what happens in any future period of macroeconomic expansion.
That 3X growth, that’s just to meet green energy goals.
As Zeihan points out, we’ve NEVER – on a global scale – doubled the amount of production for any industrial metal in a decade.
And that 3X figure is the most conservative of any of the production requirements for 14 metals to meet the transition.
First, look at the different metals required for each component of the alternative energy world. Once you take this chart in – and see all the demand – let’s look at the production numbers.
At the scale that we need by 2030… Zeihan points out that…
- We’ll need 4x the Chromium.
- We’ll need 10x the Lithium.
- We’ll need 10x the Nickel.
- And we’ll need 18x the Graphite.
Russia’s a top producer of these commodities. Meanwhile, environmentalists keep U.S. producers out of new mines, and California can’t produce anything without a lawyer holding a producer’s right hand, and a regulator holding the other one.
Once More… Buy the Dang Metals
This transition won’t be easy… but it will be forced. And we know that metals demand will be extremely high (and help propel inflation in the process). This week, I’ll be working on a report on how to invest in these metals. Look out for it soon.
To your wealth,
Florida Republic Capital (Available on Substack)
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About the Author
Garrett Baldwin is a globally recognized research economist, financial writer, consultant, and political risk analyst with decades of trading experience and degrees in economics, cybersecurity, and business from Johns Hopkins, Purdue, Indiana University, and Northwestern.