Venture Global (NYSE:VG) went public this year and is a newcomer to the market. The company makes and exports liquified natural gas from the U.S.
The IPO didn't gain as much traction despite natural gas prices rising and the Trump admin allowing LNG exports. The stock ended up plunging, and it is down significantly today.
The stock nosedived as Venture Global reported $0.33 in EPS vs. FactSet consensus of $0.76. Revenue also declined 6.6% year-over-year as it reported $1.52 billion in Q4 sales. This missed consensus by $400 million.
Full-year 2024 revenue fell to $5 billion as net income dropped $1.2 billion year-over-year.
It also added $2 billion to its Plaquemines LNG project cost.
Its outlook for 2025 is also mixed. It projects strong 2025 EBITDA at $6.8 billion to $7.4 billion, along with increased cargo exports but the guidance isn’t seen as very credible since the company has ongoing contract disputes with BP and Shell over cargo delays.
Many are calling Venture Global a failed IPO due to the massive decline since it went live on the stock market. It’s natural for stocks to be volatile post-IPO, but VG’s decline has been unusually severe.
Where the stock goes next largely depends on natural gas prices. If LNG prices hold up high going forward, the stock will likely make a comeback. Analysts expect revenue to recover by over 180% this year, along with EPS at nearly $2 (also up 180%). This means you’re paying a bit over 7 times forward earnings and 2 times forward sales.
The consensus price target of $21.91 implies 98.6% upside potential. Still, it might be worth waiting for the storm to clear before buying.
