Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly (LLY) surged 14% last week to $840 per share following positive Phase 3 trial results for its oral weight-loss drug, orforglipron. With a market cap of $796 billion, LLY is the world’s most valuable healthcare company, and its trajectory suggests it could reach $1,000 per share or more by year-end 2025.
Driven by its leadership in the $150 billion GLP-1 market, robust financials, and strategic investments, Lilly’s path to this milestone is compelling, despite risks like competition and tariffs.
Lilly announced the trial results for orforglipron last Thursday ahead of the long holiday weekend. It positions the pharma to dominate the oral GLP-1 market. The pill achieved 7.9% weight loss (16 pounds) and 1.3% to 1.6% A1C reduction in diabetes patients over 40 weeks, rivaling Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Ozempic.
Unlike injectables like Mounjaro and Zepbound, orforglipron’s ease of use – no needles or food restrictions – could unlock a $50 billion oral GLP-1 market by 2030. Lilly’s $550 million pre-launch inventory signals confidence in receiving FDA approval for obesity by late 2025 and diabetes in 2026. Bank of America projects $10 billion in sales by 2030, amplifying Lilly’s $45.8 billion 2024 revenue, up 36%. With seven trials ongoing, further data could sustain investor enthusiasm.
Lilly’s injectable portfolio, led by Mounjaro, which generated $14.7 billion in sales last year, and Zepbound, continues to drive growth. A 47% weight-loss advantage over Novo’s Wegovy and planned launches in China and India bolster 2025 sales forecasts of $58 billion to $61 billion, above the $59.21 billion consensus.
Analysts project 15% annual revenue growth through 2030, supported by a $13 billion R&D budget targeting Alzheimer’s (Kisunla) and oncology. Lilly’s retatrutide, a “triple agonist” shot, could match bariatric surgery’s 25% weight loss, potentially adding billions in revenue by 2026. Valuation supports the potential for LLY stock to become the next stock to break through the $1 trillion threshold.
Lilly’s forward P/E of 45, while high, aligns with Wall Street's forecast of $22.50 to $24.00 per share in earnings. The average analyst price target of $1,020.35, with Morgan Stanley at $1,124, implies 21% upside. And Lilly’s 1.4% dividend yield and Berkshire Hathaway’s $1.7 billion stake add stability.
There are risks, however, to this bullish outlook, including competition from Novo Nordisk’s amycretin and tariff threats under Trump, which could raise costs. Regulatory hurdles for orforglipron are low, given its safety profile matching injectables, unlike Pfizer’s failed danuglipron.
It's why the pharma giant is stockpiling the drug ahead of FDA approval. It wants to ensure sufficient supply, unlike when there were significant shortages of Mounjaro and Zepbound. Lilly’s U.S. manufacturing investments of $27 billion also ensure supply chain resilience. It hass also committed to manufacturing the pill in the U.S. to avoid any tariff concerns.
To hit $1,000, Lilly needs to sustain trial momentum, secure FDA approval, and meet first-quarter earnings expectations when it reports on May 1.
A 19% gain from $840 per share requires consistent execution, but Lilly’s GLP-1 dominance, financial strength, and market enthusiasm make it achievable. If orforglipron’s obesity trial data (due mid-2025) exceeds expectations, $1,000 could arrive much earlier allowing LLY to achieve a trillion-dollar valuation while cementing its leadership in a transformative healthcare market.
