Ford Motor Company (F) rose more than 2% on Thursday, diverging sharply from peer General Motors (GM), which traded slightly lower following its own earnings report.
The move sets the stage for a pivotal earnings showdown on Monday, May 5, with investors eyeing Ford’s positioning in a rapidly shifting auto policy landscape. Ford stock is trading more than 5% higher in the last two weeks ahead of earnings, suggesting that investors may be buying the rumor.
The rally has put the stock in a technical standout position among the consumer discretionary sector, we’ll get to that in a minute.
Ford’s latest rally came amid renewed focus on U.S. auto tariffs and the evolving impact of trade policy under former President Donald Trump’s second-term transition.
Ford and other domestic automakers received partial clarity Thursday after Trump signed an executive order softening some of the more aggressive proposed tariffs.
Ford CEO Jim Farley welcomed the move but also warned that further reform was needed, calling for a “comprehensive set of policies” to support the domestic auto sector.
“It’s essential for U.S. policy to not only encourage exports,” Farley stated, “but also reward American production at every stage of the value chain.”
That message echoed across the market as investors digested Ford’s announcement of an extended “Employee Pricing” promotion through July 4 – within a week before the end of Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve issued on April 9.
The promotional deadline hints at a tactical move by Ford to pull forward demand ahead of potential price hikes this summer, should the full 25% tariff on imported cars and parts take effect.
Analysts have suggested that consumers are already “frontloading” purchases that may be affected by tariffs including cars.
The strategy could prove timely. While American-assembled vehicles may seem shielded, new tariffs on imported components used in U.S. manufacturing are scheduled to begin this Saturday. That change will drive up production costs and likely trickle down to higher sticker prices for consumers by late Q2.
Ford’s positioning ahead of earnings is notable.
With investors already rotating into defensive consumer names, Ford's strategic response to political risk and pricing pressure will be front and center Monday morning. If the company can show resilience in margins and vehicle sales despite macro headwinds, shares may be poised for further upside.
Investors should also expect Ford’s management to make comments on the company’s dividend. Currently, the stock pays a 5.85% dividend yield but recent reporting from the Wall Street journal and other media outlets have suggested that margin and profitability pressures could force a change in Ford’s dividend.
That move would result in immediate selling of the stock as Ford has been known as one of the better “cheap” dividend stocks.
As mentioned, Ford’s recently rally puts the stock in rare leadership among the consumer discretionary sector.
As of Wednesday only 20% of the consumer discretionary stocks are trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages, one of those being Ford.
Shares joined that small group last week as the stock moved back above the $10 price. That same $10 price serves as a key psychological level as investors and institutions normally react to moves above and below $10 as a trigger for higher trading volume.
Ford shares also recently moved back above their 50-day moving average. That key moving average just shifted into a bullish patter, helping to boost Ford’s shares higher with positive momentum.
Bottom line is that the tariff clock is ticking—and Ford knows it.
Monday’s earnings report – and potential comments on the company’s dividend – will serve as a catalyst for the stock’s next large move. Investors should approach the earnings announcement understanding that the risk/reward balance is tipped towards more risk for the stock given the tariff uncertainties.
Short-term From stock should see support from its 50-day moving average at $9.70, roughly 4.7% lower than Thursday’s close. Bullish investors could consider $11 as a 4–6-week outlook in given a positive report from Ford on Monday.
