Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) is up significantly today due to the chip rally in the broader market. Has the stock reached a cyclical bottom and should you buy before it reaches a new high?
Let’s take a look.
Q1 FY 2026 revenue came in at $1.817 billion, up 27% year-over-year. It beat management’s own midpoint, whereas adjusted EPS reached $0.62. Both beat Wall Street estimates.
The data center segment now constitutes 76% of its total revenue due to rising demand for custom AI silicon and electro-optics parts.
That end market is not a fad, and it is not slowing. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is still engaged with Marvell on Trainium follow‑ons, and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is testing the MAIA XPU accelerator.
Management now sees $2 billion in revenue in Q2.
Panic seems to be behind, and it also seems that MRVL stock has reached a cyclical low and should bounce back. The chip industry has shown solid strength over the past few months, and fundamentals say demand for bandwidth‑hungry AI hardware keeps rising.
I do not expect a straight line because macro uncertainty remains, but I see the risk of $50 as limited to an external shock. The upside to $100 looks very real if management keeps executing. You’re only paying 23 times forward earnings for a solid semiconductor company with accelerating growth. Revenue growth has been 6% annually over the past three years, but future revenue growth for the decade is estimated to be around 24.4% annually. EPS (minus non-recurring items) is also estimated to grow 38.7% annually in the same time frame.
The consensus price target of $89.3 implies 33.5% upside. I also believe $100 is much more likely than $50.
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