Gold just pushed through $3,300 per ounce. Silver is still dramatically undervalued, trading around $35, but that may not last much longer.
For simplicity, I will use the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) as a proxy for physical silver. SLV shares gives investors direct exposure to silver by physically holding silver bullion. When you buy SLV, you're essentially buying a share backed by a fixed amount of real silver stored in vaults.
We’re heading into the back half of 2025, and both gold and silver are flashing bullish signals.
Gold is being driven by central bank buying, the weakening Dollar, rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions.
Silver’s riding a wave of tightening supply and surging industrial demand.
Let’s break down where both metals are heading, and why silver’s setup might be the most important signal the market’s giving you right now.
Gold has reclaimed its role as the market’s go-to insurance policy for liquidity and as a portfolio hedge.
The price cleared $3,300 thanks to rising global tensions, more rate cut bets from the Fed, and relentless central bank demand. China continues to add to its reserves month after month, and gold miners aren’t hedging future production, a sign they expect prices to keep climbing.
From a technical standpoint, the iShares Gold Fund (GLD) remains in a strong bullish trend. The 50-day moving average continues to rise, and price action is comfortably above it. If we hold $310, the GLD shares have a clean shot at $350, maybe even $400, by year-end.
The only real risk? A sudden shift in central bank policy or geopolitical de-escalation that takes the edge off safe-haven demand. But even then, gold likely holds its ground better than most other assets.
Silver is still trailing, but that may be exactly the opportunity.
Right now, the gold-to-silver ratio is sitting near 100:1. Historically, that number tends to revert to around 60. If spot gold is going to $3,700 or $4,000, silver must play catch-up in a big way.
And this isn’t just about precious metals demand. Silver is in the enviable position of seeing even higher demand in the case that the economy avoids a recession.
Silver is a critical industrial metal.
Solar, electric vehicles, semiconductors, all of them are increasing their silver consumption. Meanwhile, supply is tightening. The Silver Institute expects a 149 million ounce deficit this year. This demand will increase when the economy hits it’s stride again.
Add it all up and you’ve got a commodity that’s under-owned, underpriced, and facing a squeeze.
Price targets for silver range from $40 to $50 by year-end. That’s a 47% move from here—and it may happen faster than most investors expect.
Most investors missed it, but silver just flashed a signal that historically precedes explosive upside.
This week, shares of SLV, the iShares Silver Trust, went through a volatility compression. These events typically lead to an aggressive volatility expansion, and the direction almost always follows the trend. Right now, that trend is bullish.
At the same time, SLV completed a Silver Cross pattern—where the 20-day moving average crossed above the 50-day. That’s a short-term momentum shift that typically kicks off sharp moves to the upside.
We’ve seen this play out before. The last time SLV triggered this setup, shares rallied more than 20% over the next few weeks.
This time, the target is $35 on the next leg higher, followed by a potential breakout to $40 once we consolidate.
In this case, the “noise” caused by silver’s increase in volatility is set to play out in the bulls favor. The silver setup is real, and the technicals are lining up perfectly with the fundamentals.
Gold is still the base case. It’s stable, strong, and riding all the macro tailwinds you’d expect.
Silver is where the asymmetrical opportunity sits.
It’s cheaper, more volatile, and now flashing a bullish signal that most of Wall Street hasn’t caught onto yet. If you’re building a metals position here, the play is simple: own both.
Gold gives you the stability. Silver gives you the pure upside.
Given this week’s technical signals, silver’s setup says the next leg higher is just getting started.
For investors the play is simple, position for a 20-40% profit by purchasing the iShares Silver Trust Shares (SLV) at their current price of $32.50 with a target of $40 or higher over the next six months.
For options traders, consider buying longer-term options to leverage the expected move. I personally prefer buying slightly out-of-the-money calls at the $33 strike price using the January 16, 2026 expiration.
Those calls are priced around $310 per contract at the time of this writing.
For comparison, a move to my first target of $40 by year-end would result in an intrinsic value of $700 per contract, resulting in a potential profit of 125% compared to profits of around 23% from simply holding the SLV shares to the $40 target.
