UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) has dipped below $300 today, though it is still up from its trough after a massive 51% crash from its April peak. The decline has been due to a string of setbacks in quick succession. UnitedHealth reported disappointing first-quarter earnings that missed both revenue and profit expectations in April, and it also slashed its earnings outlook later. After that, the company’s CEO stepped down, which was then followed up by a DoJ criminal investigation.
This company was seen as a mainstay of the medical insurance industry, and UNH stock was a part of many defensive portfolios as tariffs ramped up.
But now that UNH stock has most of its negatives priced in and the decline has slowed down, should you buy?
The valuation here is back to recession-era levels. You’re paying just 12.5 times earnings for a company that still has strong core fundamentals. The historical PE ratio here is at 22 times. The guidance and the earnings miss metrics are definitely bad, but these are not end-of-the-world metrics, and UNH would’ve been down some 20-30% by now if it weren’t for the DoJ investigation and the CEO’s resignation amplifying the negativity.
The stock seems to have built a floor around $300 and will likely recover in the long run, since long-term fundamentals are still solid. The market is pricing UNH as if its competitive moat has vanished, and that scenario feels extreme. I believe the next two quarters will keep volatility high, but I also expect management to restore guidance by year‑end and to prove that utilization spikes are a one‑off.
If you’re buying UNH stock for the long run, I’d buy hand over fist. You could realize triple-digit upside if earnings rebound and the multiple drifts back toward its long‑term average. The stock could decline more in the short term if guidance isn’t reinstated in line with expectations, but the long-term outlook is solid.
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