The retail fever has caused big IPOs this year to see explosive growth. Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) is up almost 260% and looks poised to keep climbing as retail investors rush in to grab their slice. This is very similar to what happened with Newsmax (NYSE:NMAX) and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). NMAX is currently down almost 93% from its April 1 close, whereas CRWV has kept on rallying, and it is up 250%.
Will Circle’s IPO end up more like NMAX or CRWV? Let’s take a look before you chase it.
Circle’s IPO was oversubscribed by 25 times, and the syndicate upsized the float to 34 million shares. The stock opened at $69, spiked to $103.75, and closed its first session at $83.23. 48% follow‑through on day 2 pushed the intraday high to $123.49. It is currently at $115.2, as of after-hours trading.
The fundamentals look stronger than the typical meme IPO. Circle posted $1.68 billion of revenue in 2024, up 16%, and it remained profitable with $155.7 million of net income. In Q1 2025 alone, revenue hit $579 million with $65 million of net income. Those dollars come mainly from interest on the $60 billion of reserves that back USDC, the second‑largest stablecoin. Circle also holds $1.9 billion of cash and equivalents against $577 million of total debt, so the balance sheet is sturdy.
Not only that, the IPO rally also overlapped with Bitcoin surging to a new high.
Circle’s revenue growth is slower than CoreWeave’s, but it already makes money. Its float will soon be far larger than Newsmax’s. This should reduce the odds of a squeeze‑driven crash, but the first six months will still see violent swings while options liquidity develops.
Circle lacks CoreWeave’s outsized capital needs, and it also lacks CoreWeave’s $25.9 billion backlog. On top of that, Circle’s profits are linked to interest from its USDC reserves. If rates fall, so will profits.
Still, CRCL is more likely to end up like CRWV. However, I’d wait for Circle to stabilize first. For long‑term investors, the smarter play is to track USDC market share and Treasury yields. Buy only when the valuation lines up with those drivers.
By submitting your email address, you will receive a free subscription to Money Morning! and occasional special offers from us and our affiliates. You can unsubscribe at any time and we encourage you to read more about our Privacy Policy.
Processing your submission
