Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares shot more than 9% higher on Monday, making it the best performer in the semiconductor sector. The one-day surge reclaimed the stock’s 200-day moving average and marked its highest close since early January.
This also marks AMD’s largest single-day move since the April 8 “Tariff Tantrum” bottom. This is a clear signal of renewed institutional interest in both the semiconductor sector and AMD itself.
Semiconductor stocks have struggled since April as investors worried about the ongoing trade war’s impact on companies like NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD. But recent developments have calmed nerves, pushing the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) to within 7% of its all-time highs from July 2024.
Fueling AMD’s rally is CNBC’s report that the company may have secured a high-profile GPU contract with Amazon Web Services (AWS), though official confirmation is still pending. If true, it would be a major win against NVIDIA in the competitive AI accelerator space.
Wall Street analysts were already bullish following last week’s AMD conference.
Piper Sandler raised its price target from $125 to $140 and reiterated its Overweight rating, citing the unveiling of AMD’s new “Helios” server rack architecture. Built around next-gen MI400 Instinct GPUs, Helios is expected to launch in 2026 and is viewed as pivotal to AMD’s long-term role in the AI data center arms race.
The company also spotlighted its growing ecosystem of AI and cloud partnerships, including OpenAI, Meta (META), Oracle (ORCL), and Microsoft (MSFT). Most notable, however, were AMD’s comments about its potential deal with Amazon.
Bank of America maintains a Buy rating with a $130 target and noted that AWS was a “key sponsor” of AMD’s event. BofA believes an official announcement may come later — potentially at an upcoming Amazon-hosted event.
These rumors are helping AMD shares break out of a 14-month decline that had locked the stock in a long-term bear market.
Shares broke below their 20-month moving average in December 2024 and continued sliding into the April lows. In total, the stock lost more than 65% from its July 2024 highs to its April 2025 lows.
In early May, AMD’s 50-day moving average turned bullish as the stock rebounded off those lows and began challenging its 200-day moving average. Monday’s break above that level is the first since October 2024, a technical signal that AMD may be beginning a longer-term recovery.
For speculators, yes.
The stock is likely to encounter some profit-taking around the $125 level over the next week or two. Investors should expect a healthy consolidation here before AMD’s next leg higher.
The company’s next earnings report is set for August 5. With the recent breakout, look for a “buy the rumor” rally heading into that release.
That said, the long-term trend remains bearish until AMD reclaims its 20-month moving average, currently near $140. A sustained breakout above that resistance would confirm a new bull market trend, and put a $200 price target back in play.
Seasonal weakness in July and August could create some short-term headwinds. But if the trend continues, AMD appears poised to reclaim its 2024 highs and potentially go much higher.
