Pre-Market Price Check
What’s Driving Stocks Today: Still Cautiously Optimistic The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are trading higher pre-market, but momentum is being driven by fewer names as traders brace for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Underneath the surface, we’re seeing rotation out of speculative areas and into reliable balance-sheet names.
Gold continues to hold firm after last week’s bounce off $3,300 support. With central banks still buying and geopolitical risks simmering, this remains one of the market’s most compelling safe-haven trades.
Bitcoin is bouncing back above $109K, but the move may be deceptive. Forced selling from Mt. Gox redemptions (140,000 BTC returning to market) remains a heavy technical overhang.
Despite the rally, markets remain sensitive to politics. Trump is floating Fed Chair replacements and doubling down on a July 9 trade deadline — setting up the potential for volatility next week.
Tesla (TSLA) – Shares are up 5% this morning after a better-than-feared Q2 delivery report. Tesla delivered 444,000 vehicles in Q2, down 13.5% year over year—but up 100,000 units from Q1. Investors are now looking ahead to the company’s AI, energy, and robotaxi catalysts later this year. The stock has cleared key resistance and could be setting up for a new run toward the $350–$375 zone.
Apple (AAPL) – Continues to hit fresh highs. The stock broke out last week and is now extending gains as bullish momentum builds ahead of earnings.
Nvidia (NVDA) – Still riding strong AI tailwinds. The recent consolidation breakout has room to run if earnings guidance from peers confirms demand.
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Holding above the $500 level as financials attract rotation flows. The bank passed stress tests with flying colors and is set to kick off earnings season.
Archer Aviation (ACHR) – Shares are hanging above the psychologically significant $10 level. Volume remains elevated, and the stock’s recent golden cross suggests bulls are firmly in control.
Tariffs in focus as Trump’s July 9 trade deadline looms. For now, markets are treating the noise as non-event risk—VIX remains anchored and the dollar is steady.
Oil is stabilizing around $66 as supply/demand concerns and Middle East headlines cancel each other out.
Bitcoin surges above $107K, benefiting from macro hedge demand and early Q3 risk-on sentiment.
Costco (COST) upgraded to Buy at UBS; PT raised from $880 to $925. AMD (AMD) downgraded to Neutral at Morgan Stanley; PT lowered from $192 to $175. Oracle (ORCL) upgraded to Buy at Barclays; PT increased from $140 to $160. Nio (NIO) downgraded to Sell at Citi; PT cut from $8 to $6. MetLife (MET) upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT raised from $75 to $83.
The market’s grinding higher, and for now, the bulls are in control. We’re seeing strong rotation into financials, insurance, and mega-cap tech, exactly the kind of leadership you want if this rally has legs. Tesla’s surge is a key tell: investors are shrugging off the bad and buying into the long-term story again. That’s classic Wall of Worry behavior.
But here’s what’s new, regional banks are now fully engaged in the rally. After months of hesitation, they’re catching a bid ahead of earnings season.
With the Fed leaning more dovish going into the second half of 2025, the setup favors smaller banks as one of the best value trades left in this market. Expect Regional Banks (KRE) to outperform if the soft landing narrative holds.
Still, don’t mistake momentum for safety. Breadth is thinning, sentiment is heating up, and volatility is still sitting at the floor. This is a market that wants to go higher—but it's also one that could get blindsided fast.
