Cracks in the China Trade Deal Helping These Stocks[Stocks](https://moneymorning.com/category/article/stocks/) # Cracks in the China Trade Deal Helping These Stocks  by Chris Johnson  October 30, 2025  Share it: ## Today’s Top & Bottom Lines – October 30, 2025 | | | | --- | --- | | #### **Pre-Market Price Check** | | **S&P 500 Futures: -0.32%** | **10-Year Yield: 4.001 (+0.43)** | | **Nasdaq 100 Futures: -0.46%** | **WTI Crude: $60.59 (-0.32%)** | | **Dow Jones Futures: -0.48%** | **Gold Futures: $3,987 (-0.34%)** | | **VIX: 16.92 (+3.05%)** | **Bitcoin (BTC): $108,510 (-1.96%)** | ## What’s Driving Stocks This Morning Despite a slew of earnings beats, the mood on Wall Street has turned defensive. Meta Platforms (META) delivered another strong quarter - beating EPS by $0.53 and posting 26% revenue growth - but shares are trading nearly 9% lower. The reason, rising CapEx and tepid forward guidance. Traders are haunted by the ghost of Zuckerberg’s 2022 overspend cycle, and the $700 level has emerged as critical technical support. In contrast, Alphabet (GOOG) is surging +8.5% after a blowout quarter led by 34% YoY cloud revenue growth and a bullish 2025 CapEx outlook. This divergence between tech titans has sharpened investor focus ahead of the next round of Magnificent Seven earnings set to hit after the bell. The Fed’s 25 bps rate cut landed as expected, but the surprise came in Jerome Powell’s tone. His press conference cast serious doubt on a December follow-up cut, warning that “a further reduction is not a foregone conclusion, far from it.” This uncertainty clipped the tail-end of yesterday’s rally and is keeping a lid on this morning’s open. **Rare earth stocks are breaking out this morning.** **MP Materials (MP)** and **USA Rare Earth (USAR)** are trading sharply higher as cracks already appear in the new U.S.–China rare earth truce. Though Presidents Trump and Xi struck a deal to delay Chinese export controls for one year, behind-the-scenes reports suggest the implementation timeline and enforcement mechanisms are already being challenged. Markets are hovering near flat at the open following yesterday’s record-setting intraday highs, but mixed large-cap earnings and a hawkish Fed have traders on edge. ## Stocks on the Move (Pre-Market) - **META (684.84)** –8.9% — Beat earnings, but traders sold on rising CapEx and flat guidance; $700 key technical level - **GOOG (298.66)** +8.5% — Strong beat and 34% cloud growth sparked big gap-up; 2025 CapEx raised to $91–$93B - **LLY (845.69)** +4.0% — Massive Mounjaro/Zepbound sales drove beat; guidance raised - **MSFT (531.41)** –1.7% — Beat across the board, but Azure growth and lack of bullish forecast capped upside - **MP (37.12)** +5.2% — Rare earth play spikes as China trade truce shows early implementation cracks - **USAR (13.88)** +7.8% — Small-cap rare earth miner gapping on same catalyst as MP ## Upgrades & Downgrades **Upgrades** - **Coinbase (COIN) – H.C. Wainwright upgrades to _Buy_**, tgt $425, citing institutional demand surge - **FormFactor (FORM) – Citi upgrades to _Buy_**, tgt $62 on rising semi test demand - **Viavi (VIAV) – B. Riley upgrades to _Buy_**, tgt $18 on improving margins **Downgrades** - **Meta Platforms (META) – Oppenheimer cuts to _Perform_** on CapEx concerns and sentiment shift - **Boeing (BA) – Deutsche Bank downgrades to _Hold_**, tgt $240 citing delivery bottlenecks - **Fiserv (FI) – Multiple downgrades** including from Morgan Stanley and TD Cowen amid weak forward guidance ## Today’s Bottom Line – The Fed pulled the trigger on a rate cut, but Powell’s warning about December hit sentiment harder than expected. Combined with Meta’s bearish reaction and split tech earnings, traders are reassessing the bullish thesis heading into year-end. What’s more concerning is that the **speculative end of the market is starting to stall out**. We’re seeing slower action in small caps, meme names, and high-beta plays, which historically tends to precede broader market pullbacks. Meta’s post-earnings plunge could be just the start of a **“sell the news”** reaction that spreads across the rest of the Magnificent Seven, especially with **Apple and Amazon** still on deck tonight.Earnings season is far from over with **Palantir (PLTR)** reports next week with high expectations. That said, sentiment is fragile. Traders are still giving the market the benefit of the doubt for now, as major indices hover near record highs. **Keep your eye on the VIX and small-cap stocks (Russell 2000)** for early warning signs of a shift in outlook. Watch $700 on Meta. Watch volatility. And watch how the market reacts to good news, not just the headlines, but the follow-through.  **Beat the market, without relying on brokers or biased institutions.** Email(Required) Facebook This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged. 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