DC Killed the Year-End Rally: Here’s What Happens Next[Stocks](https://moneymorning.com/category/article/stocks/) # DC Killed the Year-End Rally: Here’s What Happens Next  by Chris Johnson  November 14, 2025  Share it: ### Editor’s Note: There are some mornings that I like to give you a preview of the “Bottom Line”, today is one of them… _“…the ongoing shenanigans on K Street - that’s Washington, D.C. - have squandered one of the most powerful rallies the market sees each year….”_ ### Please read on for the rest of the story…. ## What’s Driving Stocks This Morning Investors are waking up to a futures market under heavy pressure as the Nasdaq 100 continues its sharp reversal from recent highs. The rotation out of mega-caps is accelerating, fueled by a “sell the rip” mentality and fading rate-cut hopes. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari threw cold water on December easing, saying he didn’t support October’s cut and remains undecided. The lack of upcoming inflation data, thanks to a data blackout at the BLS, is only adding to the uncertainty. On the policy front, the Trump administration is preparing a new tariff exemption package aimed at lowering food costs - a sign of economic stress ahead of the holiday season. Meanwhile, China’s mixed economic data (weaker industrial output, better retail sales) and new signs of tension in the AI chip space - with AMZN and MSFT backing NVDA export limits - are raising red flags about global growth. Investors are seeing clear signs of forced selling. The U.S. Gold Fund (GLD) and physical bullion decoupled from ETFs yesterday in a panic move toward cash. The VIX closed above 20 for the first time since April. And the Nasdaq 100 has formed its first lower-low pattern in over six months. ### Today’s Key Drivers - Mega-cap tech selloff deepens - First VIX close above 20 since April crash - December rate-cut odds drop on Fed pushback - Nvidia export crackdown gains backing from AMZN, MSFT - China growth data disappoints - Walmart CEO retirement adds to consumer concern - WBD auction heats up as NFLX, CMCSA, PARA eye bids ### What to Watch Today - Fed speakers: KC Fed’s Schmid (10:05 ET), Dallas Fed’s Logan (2:30 ET) - Market reaction to Nvidia chip export news - QQQ 50-day moving average test - Bond market follow-through (2-year and 10-year yields falling) - Continued tech rotation and volatility spikes ## Stocks on the Move (Pre-Market) - **BZH** +7.4% — Beat earnings and guidance. - **WBD** +2.8% — Strategic review underway; WSJ reports NFLX, PARA, CMCSA lining up bids. - **STUB** –18.7% — Downgraded by BofA; target cut to $19. - **AMAT** –6.7% — Beat earnings, but outlook cautious; downgraded. ## Upgrades & Downgrades #### Upgrades: - **MP Materials (MP) + _JPMorgan upgrades to Overweight_**, tgt $74 — _Cites rare-earth strategic importance in U.S.-China trade war backdrop._ - **Gap (GPS) + _Jefferies upgrades to Buy_**, tgt $30 — _Strong back-to-school recovery and cost discipline._ - **Shake Shack (SHAK) + _Loop upgrades to Buy_**, tgt $127 — _Improved margins and digital expansion momentum._ - **Ondas Holdings (ONDS) + _Oppenheimer upgrades to Outperform_**, tgt $12 — _AI drone network catalyst ahead of 2026 federal contract cycle._ #### Downgrades: - **Applied Materials (AMAT) ↓ _Craig-Hallum cuts to Hold_**, tgt $190 — _Guidance suggests delayed revenue ramp._ - **Home Depot (HD) ↓ _Stifel cuts to Hold_**, tgt $370 — _Cites softening consumer spending and housing headwinds._ - **Atlas Energy (AESI) ↓ _Barclays cuts to Underweight_**, tgt $7 — _Concerns over production volumes and debt._ - **Progressive (PGR) ↓ _Jefferies cuts to Hold_**, tgt $232 — _Margin compression concerns after hurricane season._ ## Today’s Bottom Line **This is a market of firsts — and not the bullish kind.** For the first time since April, the Nasdaq 100 has broken its pattern of higher highs. The VIX just closed above 20. Gold futures settled higher, but the U.S. Gold Fund (GLD) sold off sharply — a rare signal of broad-based investor capitulation to cash. More importantly, the Nasdaq 100 is on the verge of closing below its 50-day moving average, another first since the April Tariff Tantrum selloff. These are strong technical signals that the tide has turned, and momentum is firmly against the bulls. Bottom line is that you should be gearing up for a rougher-than-expected November and December as **the ongoing shenanigans on K Street - that’s Washington, D.C. - have squandered one of the most powerful rallies the market sees each year.** K-Street With rate-cut hopes fading and political volatility rising, investors should prepare for a rough November and December. The failure to capitalize on what’s usually a powerful year-end rally window could invite a deeper 10–15% correction. Expect more panic, more forced selling, and more rotation out of mega-cap names as confidence continues to erode. This is the beginning of a much harder reset.  **Beat the market, without relying on brokers or biased institutions.** Email(Required) Facebook This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged. Subscribe By submitting your email address, you will receive a free subscription to _Money Morning!_ and occasional special offers from us and our affiliates. 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