Rocket Lab Goes Into Orbit on SpaceX IPO Plans, but Is That a Reason to Buy?
Rocket Lab (RKLB) shares blasted off after reports that SpaceX is preparing to file for its initial public offering as soon as this week. The move marks the latest sign that the commercial space sector is entering a new era of investor excitement, but it also raises a familiar question for RKLB holders: Is this pop driven by real momentum or just IPO spillover hype?
SpaceX's Mega-IPO Spillover Effect
SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation north of $1.75 trillion in what could be the largest IPO in history, potentially raising more than $75 billion with a public debut as soon as June. The rocket giant's business spans reusable launch vehicles, Starlink's satellite broadband constellation, deep-space ambitions with Starship, and now expanded AI capabilities following its recent merger with xAI (tying into Musk's broader X.com ecosystem).
That scale is hard to ignore. When the world's leading private space company prepares to go public at such an eye-popping number, it lifts the entire sector. Publicly traded space names suddenly look like accessible ways to ride the same wave without waiting in line for shares. The space economy is no longer niche but a multi-trillion-dollar growth story.
Rocket Lab Is Built on More Than Hype
Rocket Lab posted record revenue and backlog last year, which has now swelled to more than $2 billion, following its recent $190 million U.S. War Dept. agreement for 20 hypersonic test flights using its HASTE launch vehicle. Rocket Lab also completed a record 21 successful Electron launches in 2025 with a perfect success rate.
The real growth driver ahead is Neutron, Rocket Lab's medium-lift rocket now targeting first flight in Q4 2026. Once online, Neutron should let the company chase larger payloads and higher-margin missions, while its space-systems business (building satellites and components) continues scaling. In a sector long dominated by a handful of giants, Rocket Lab has carved out a profitable niche in dedicated small-satellite launches and rapid-response missions that bigger players often overlook.
Premium Price Tag, Premium Potential?
Rocket Lab sports a $41 billion market capitalization, equating to more than 60x revenue – a rich multiple by any traditional metric. Wall Street has a consensus price target of $72 indicating its fairly valued today.
The premium reflects belief that Neutron and expanding space-systems revenue can deliver 30%-plus annual growth for years. Still, the stock has already run up 260% in the past year, and execution risks remain: Neutron delays, consistent profitability, and intense competition. The SpaceX IPO buzz adds sector tailwinds, but it doesn't change RKLB's own fundamentals.
Bottom Line
SpaceX's looming IPO injects fresh energy and credibility into the entire space sector, giving RKLB a short-term lift and broader investor attention. That momentum is real and could continue as the IPO unfolds.
Yet the case for buying RKLB hinges less on what SpaceX does and more on whether Rocket Lab executes on Neutron, grows its backlog further, and proves it can command premium pricing in a competitive market. Its valuation already prices in a lot of that success. Investors should remember that IPO-driven pops often fade once the initial excitement settles. The SpaceX news is a powerful catalyst – but it's not the only reason to own RKLB.