Ozempic Maker's Hope For a Rebound Runs Right Through the AI Boom
The GLP-1 weight-loss frenzy that powered Novo Nordisk's (NVO) meteoric rise has hit a wall. Pricing pressure, supply constraints, and a fierce rival have left the Danish drugmaker guiding for its first sales drop since 2017. Savvy investors are asking one question: Can Novo Nordisk claw back ground when its biggest growth engine is sputtering?
The answer, surprisingly, runs straight through the AI boom that's now hitting pharma full force.
How Novo Nordisk Lost the Lead It Once Owned
Novo Nordisk was first out of the gate in the GLP-1 market with Ozempic for diabetes and then Wegovy for obesity. It launched the first oral Wegovy pill in January. Yet Eli Lilly (LLY) now commands roughly 60% of the U.S. GLP-1 market while Novo holds about 40%.
Sales tell the story. Novo's combined Ozempic and Wegovy revenue hit roughly $32 billion in 2025, or 67% of total sales. Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound generated $36.5 billion, or 56% of its revenue, and kept climbing. In its full-year 2025 results, Novo projected 2026 sales and operating profit would fall 5% to 13% while Lilly guided for 2026 revenue of $80 billion to $83 billion – up roughly 25% from 2025 levels.
The oral race repeats the pattern. Novo won first FDA approval for its obesity pill, but sales have struggled to match the injectable boom. Earlier this month, Lilly's oral Foundayo gained approval. Head-to-head data from Lilly's ACHIEVE-3 trial showed orforglipron delivered superior blood-sugar control and 73.6% greater relative weight loss versus Novo's oral semaglutide 14 mg dose. Goldman Sachs analysts project Lilly's pill will capture 60% ($13.6 billion) of the oral GLP-1 segment by 2030, leaving Novo with just 21% ($4 billion).
Cash Infusions from Riyadh – and Now Uber
Lucid has stayed alive through steady support from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), its majority owner holding roughly 60% of shares and more than $9 billion invested since 2018. Multiple rounds of preferred stock, credit lines, and convertible notes have kept the lights on.
Bottom Line
The OpenAI collaboration and pipeline expansion give Novo Nordisk a credible path to reclaim competitiveness in the GLP-1 market. However, execution risk remains high with Eli Lilly maintaining its market lead. Watch for concrete AI-driven drug candidates and next-quarter sales figures to gauge whether this pivot can deliver real results.