A 60-Day Iran Ceasefire May Be Hours Away. Crude Oil Already Dropped Below $95.Oil traders are not waiting for the ink to dry. U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding on a 60-day ceasefire, with talks focused on extending the pause in hostilities and reopening Iran's nuclear program to diplomatic engagement. The key detail that moved energy markets: the deal includes provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's traded oil flows. Brent crude dropped to $91.53 per barrel on May 29, down 1.26% on the day and tracking toward one of its worst monthly performances in 2026. West Texas Intermediate settled near $88.90. Both benchmarks have been swinging around the $95 level for weeks as ceasefire hopes rose and fell. ## What the Strait Reopening Would Mean The Strait of Hormuz has been partially closed since the conflict began, contributing directly to the global energy shock that pushed Brent well above $100 earlier in 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration had projected Brent around $106 per barrel through May and June in its May 12 outlook. The market is already pricing in a different reality. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said publicly that oil costs could "come down very quickly" once a deal was finalized. That statement, paired with the preliminary agreement news, accelerated the selloff. ## The Risks That Remain The deal is not final. President Trump has not signed off, and Iran has not formally confirmed acceptance as of this writing. That gap matters. Previous ceasefire announcements in this conflict have collapsed at the last hour, and each failure sent oil spiking back above $95. The 60-day structure is also temporary by design. It buys time for nuclear talks, not a permanent resolution. Investors who sold energy positions into this news are making a bet that the deal holds and the broader conflict de-escalates. That is not a certain outcome. ## The Investment Read Energy stocks, which had rallied hard on the back of elevated oil prices, face a changed environment if Brent settles into the $85 to $92 range rather than the $100-plus territory of the past several months. Refiners that benefit from lower input costs may see relative outperformance. Upstream producers with high breakeven costs have the most downside exposure. ## Bottom Line A 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, if confirmed, would mark the single biggest near-term relief valve for global oil markets this year. Brent at $91.53 reflects that possibility, not the certainty. Watch for official confirmation from both Washington and Tehran. Until that arrives, the price move is a bet, not a fact.