This Space Stock Dropped 13% Because a Rival's Rocket Exploded. That's Backwards.
By The Numbers
- 12.82% — LUNR's single-day drop on June 2, triggered by a Blue Origin rocket explosion
- $186.7 million — Intuitive Machines Q1 2026 revenue, up 3x year-over-year
- $1.1 billion — Record backlog as of Q1 2026, with 60-65% expected to convert this year
- $851 million — Lanteris Space Systems acquisition deal to expand manufacturing and defense work
- June 12, 2026 — Expected SpaceX IPO listing date, which has been lifting all space stocks
A Blue Origin rocket exploded. Intuitive Machines dropped 13% the next day. If you think those two things are connected in any meaningful way, this article is for you.
They're not the same company. They're not even in the same business. But in a hot sector, fear spreads fast and logic gets left behind.
What Intuitive Machines Actually Does
Intuitive Machines lands things on the moon. Not metaphorically. Their IM-1 spacecraft touched down on the lunar surface in 2024, the first American-made craft to do so in over 50 years. IM-2 followed in early 2025. IM-3 is coming later this year.
NASA is paying them to do it. Multiple contracts. They just added two three-year deals totaling $20 million to operate NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera and ShadowCam. They're also part of the U.S. Space Force's Andromeda program.
This is not a speculative company betting on someday getting a contract. They have $1.1 billion in backlog right now, with most of it converting into revenue this year. Last quarter, sales tripled. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time at $2.7 million.
The SpaceX Effect
Here's what the market is actually thinking about: SpaceX is going public. Expected listing date is June 12. The valuation being floated is $1.75 trillion, which would make it one of the largest IPOs in history.
When a giant IPO like that lands, it draws attention to every company in the sector. Institutional money starts looking at space. Retail investors start Googling "space stocks." A rising tide lifts everything in the harbor.
"When SpaceX goes public next week, every investor who missed Nvidia is going to be looking for the next space play. Intuitive Machines already has a $1.1 billion backlog. That's not speculation. That's a pipeline."
It's kinda like what happened to electric vehicle stocks when Tesla first crossed $1,000. Every EV startup with a press release and a PowerPoint got a bump. The difference here is that LUNR has actual missions, actual contracts, and actual revenue.
The Risks Are Real Too
This company is not without issues. LUNR lost a major NASA contract for the Lunar Terrain Vehicle to competitors. Analysts who had expected them to win that deal had to cut their targets. The stock has diluted shareholders through share issuance. And the valuation, based on narrative, already exceeds what some fundamental models justify.
You don't have to trust me. Trust the numbers. The backlog is real. The revenue growth is real. The SpaceX IPO halo effect is real. The question is whether any of that overcomes the valuation premium the market has already priced in.
But a 13% drop because a different company's rocket blew up? That's a market overreaction. And market overreactions, historically, create opportunities for people paying attention.
P.S. Watch the SpaceX IPO closely next week. If it prices big, expect a wave of capital to flood into every public space stock. LUNR will be near the top of that list.
This editorial is for informational purposes only. Money Morning does not provide personalized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Copyright 2026 Money Morning | 1125 N. Charles St. | Baltimore, MD 21201