Military & Defense Watch

I was still in the air with my wife, traveling between Dubai and our home in Florida, when some of the world's most important oil production and processing facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked by drones.

Only the timing was a surprise; I predicted this attack as recently as May, when I released a vetted-for-public-view version of a classified report on the vulnerability of Saudi oil infrastructure to attack, including the use of short-range missiles from Yemen.

By the time we landed, the massive Saudi Aramco processing facility at Abqaiq and the Khurais oil fields were burning, around 7% of global daily crude production was falling offline, and global crude prices were spiking by double digits.

At home, before I even had a chance to unpack, I participated in a marathon series of overseas conference calls which have only just ended.

With the attack, claimed by Houthi rebels out of Yemen, the long-simmering Saudi-Iranian proxy war has reached a new, volatile boil.

Frankly, White House rhetoric notwithstanding, Saudi Arabia's next steps will largely determine when and where outright war breaks out.

I can say with certainty, however, that U.S. and Saudi government responses to the global oil market have missed the mark.