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Economic Data

The Market Looks Past 3.28 Million Newly Unemployed and Soars: Is That Crazy?

by 2 Comments

Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21, 2020 were a record 3.28 million.

That's 11.6 times the week before when 281,000 claims were filed, and 4.72 times the previous record of 695,000 Americans seeking benefits way back in the week ending Oct. 2, 1982.

But that didn't stop the Dow Jones Industrial Average from soaring 1,351.62 points, or 6.38%, to 22,552.17 yesterday.

Is that crazy? No and yes. When you put this rally in context, it looks one way. But, we cannot forget what's coming for us.

When you put this rally in context, it looks one way. But we cannot forget what's coming for us...

The Fed

What the Fed's Really Doing, Who They're Bailing Out, and What's Next

by 1 Comment

The Fed's been taking some desperate measures lately in these desperate times.

But markets haven't fully priced in their rescue and recovery programs for what they really are, which is an admission that "this time is different" and it's too late to stop what's going to happen next.

Today, our Shah Gilani's back to break down what the Fed's doing, in layman's terms, what it says about where things are, and what's next going forward...

The Fed

The Federal Reserve's Bazooka Can't Save the Market or the Economy

by 3 Comments

If you think the Fed's going to fire hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars of "stimulus" rounds at the coronavirus crisis and pierce its grip on mankind, on the market, and on the economy, you're wrong.

This is an existential threat to humans, markets, and economies, which the Fed's ammo can't kill – but it sure can make it worse.

Here's what the Fed's doing, what it's going to do, why it won't work, how you'll know it's not working, and how it's going to make everything worse…

Click here to continue reading Shah's update on the Fed's latest moves, and you'll automatically be signed up to receive his Wall Street Insights & Indictments research, absolutely free.

Click here to continue reading Shah's update on the Fed's latest moves, and you'll automatically be signed up to receive his Wall Street Insights & Indictments research, absolutely free

Economic Data

Demand Destruction Across the U.S. and Global Economies Portends Recession, or Worse

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Don't believe anyone who tries to tell you that "demand destruction" resulting from the impact of the novel coronavirus across U.S. and world economies isn't going to result in a global recession.

They don't know the facts.

In fact, President Trump recently declared a state of emergency and as the virus spreads to all 50 states in America and infection rates around the world increase, demand in the U.S. and globally isn't just going to decline, it's going to be destroyed.

If the coronavirus isn't corralled and eradicated in the next three months, the U.S. and world economies are headed for recession, according to economists.

And if the virus isn't contained and killed off and infection rates haven't leveled off in six months, depression becomes a possibility.

There are two separate demand effects to consider...

Trading Strategies

Make No Mistake: This Is a Global Crisis

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I love joining Stuart Varney on his "Varney & Co." program on FOX Business Network – although I wish the news was better than what I've had to talk about lately.

There's been plenty to cover since the coronavirus slammed markets a few weeks ago. Now we're focused on what's next – are we at a market bottom, and is the government doing enough to help the inevitable economic impact we're facing as China, Italy, South Korea, the United States, and many other countries deal with the virus fallout?

These are the big questions Stuart had for me this week. In case you missed it, here's what I shared…

Looking for the Market Bottom

Shah on when we'll see the market bottom…

Stuart: Shah, any sign of a bottom at all in this market?

Shah: Unfortunately no, Stuart. On Tuesday, there was some sign of hope when markets closed on a high. I thought maybe stocks would settle in a little there – then obviously we saw selling overnight and in markets Wednesday, indicating to investors the worst has not yet come to pass. So I think we have some time to go – and it may be a matter of months.

The unknowns are so extraordinary in terms of this virus, and in terms of the global impact it will have. Let's not mistake this for anything other than what it is: a global crisis… Full Story

The unknowns are so extraordinary in terms of this virus, and in terms of the global impact it will have. Let's not mistake this for anything other than what it is: a global crisis...

Oil

We're in Uncharted Territory for Oil

by 1 Comment

The meeting in Vienna last week among OPEC members and their non-OPEC allies, OPEC plus, was intended to help nations reach an agreement on production cuts to extend past the current end date of April 1.

The concern is the spread of the coronavirus will drive down the price further as global economic demand slows. But Russia was not on board. And the Saudis' response to Russia's stance was to cut its price to Chinese customers, and plan to increase production by as much as 2 million barrels per day. That fallout then led to oil's massive 30% nosedive. And on Monday, oil's decline was literal fuel to the stock market fire, causing it to fall 7.79% in one day. Since Monday's losses, both oil and the stock market have recovered a bit. Oil is sitting at around $33 a barrel and stocks rallied at open.

But unless there's a resolution, we will be retesting the market lows that we experienced in 2015 and 2016, when oil dipped below $30 per barrel and we'll see a ripple effect through the economy that's going to have a parallel impact to the COVID-19 problems we already have. Here's Kent with the details...

Trading Strategies

The Most Successful Wealth-Building Move of All Time

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Today, our Bill Patalon is going to talk about something he calls the "Paradox of Wealth." And it applies perfectly to the "Infection Correction" – the term he coined for the coronavirus-fueled selloff that's wiped away trillions in shareholder wealth over the last few weeks. And it'll likely get worse before it gets better. But as we've been telling you, that's not a reason to panic. Just the opposite, in fact – thanks to the Paradox of Wealth – because big selloffs can be your biggest long-term wealth-building opportunities. What will set you apart from the masses is making deliberate moves in times like these that will be best for the long run.

That's why Bill's also sharing the tale of an investor who turned one of the worst periods in modern history into one of the smartest wealth-building moves of all time...

Trading Strategies

The Impact of COVID-19 on Markets: Your Roadmap Through the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

by 2 Comments

The global spread of the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, officially named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO), is already impacting economies, markets, and stocks. Last week, Shah brought you part one of his series on how this new coronavirus outbreak is affecting global markets and, ultimately, your money. Then the market moved more than 4,500 points in five days. Today, he's walking you through what's ahead – the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Investors need a comprehensive roadmap to navigate each of the potential pathways the virus could take markets down, because it's going to take them down all three roads...

Trading Strategies

Don't Be Fooled by These "Snap-Back" Rallies – Look for This Instead

by Leave a Comment

Central banks to the rescue?

Good luck with that.

The U.S. Federal Reserve tried to swoop in and save the market panic with a 50-basis-point cut on Tuesday. But lowering rates, even a "concerted" lowering of rates by several central banks working together, in the face of already low rates, isn't going to be economically stimulative.

Central banks lowering rates now is like opening the barn door after the horses have already bolted.

Lower rates aren't going to get consumers out if they're scared to go out – or if they can't go out. They aren't going to induce capital spending by companies if companies don't know where demand will come from or when it will come back.

Besides, the flight-to-quality trading that's driven hundreds of billions of dollars into U.S. Treasuries, for example, has already lowered rates dramatically.

When the coast is clear and the coronavirus is behind us, central banks will have to start pulling back the stimulus they intend to flood economies with. Markets know that's the other side of lowering rates in an eventually passing crisis.

So no, lowering rates isn't going to put a hard and fast support under weak markets.

Markets are looking at economies and sales and revenue and earnings and profits… and now losses. Those economic realities are reflected in stock prices.

We're not out of the woods yet. But this will tell us when we are… Full Story

We're not out of the woods yet. But this will tell us when we are... Full Story

Trading Strategies

The Future Impact of the Coronavirus on Mankind and Financial Markets

by 3 Comments

The coronavirus has overtaken and decimated financial markets just as quickly as it has spread across the globe, infecting and killing thousands of people.

And while the Dow jumped up to nearly 1,295 points in volatile trading by market close Monday – its biggest one-day point gain in history – the one thing we can be certain about is that this is far from over. In fact, there are going to be plenty of market swings ahead.

As bad as it's been for global stock markets, it will get a lot worse as the number of deaths attributable to the virus increases dramatically along with infection rates – and most frighteningly, mortality rates.

Starting today, I'm sharing with you a series of ongoing reports documenting the coronavirus's impact on lives, economies, and financial markets – specifically, asset classes to avoid and invest in. You'll get weekly updates on markets along with specific stock recommendations designed to profit and protect your portfolios from the virus's spreading impact, and what to invest in when the crisis recedes.

Because even though stocks were prone to a sell-off for weeks, based on most valuation metrics… this, and what comes next, is fundamentally different from anything we've seen…

Click here for Shah's coronavirus report, and you'll automatically be signed up to receive his latest Wall Street Insights and Indictments research, absolutely free.

Because even though stocks were prone to a sell-off for weeks, based on most valuation metrics... this, and what comes next, is fundamentally different from anything we've seen...

Today's Markets
DJIA 285.80 (1.22%) 23,719.37
NASDAQ 62.68 (0.77%) 8,153.58
S&P 39.84 (1.45%) 2,789.82