Tim Melvin

Last week was fun, wasn't it? For the first time in many months, we saw some big down days as investors got a little panicky over the potential for higher interest rates, midterm elections, and anything else there was to get worked up about. Of course, this immediately started all the chatter about what happens next.

re we going to have a bear market now? Will prices collapse? Should I sell? Should I buy more? What is the stock market going to do next?

If you think you actually know the answer to those questions, you may be a hamster.

Hamsters can run around in a circle like nobody's business. They may think they're going somewhere, but let's face it – they're not.

You won't get any insight at the top of a hamster wheel that you couldn't get at the bottom.

Anyone who confidently predicts the next move in the market is either fooling themselves or trying to fool you.

I have been doing this a long time, and the stock market never does what we all think it should. I have seen markets rally on bad news and sell off on good news. While stock prices will reflect the value of the companies in the long term, in the short run it's more of a psychological soup that often responds irrationally.

Making drastic moves based on your, or anyone's, forecast of market direction is usually a fool's errand. You will end up running in place like our furry friend and not getting much of anywhere.

If you really want to see what's going on, you need a much bigger wheel (like a Ferris wheel) that will give you a much better view.

Everybody loves a good "Buy one, get one" deal.

And my family is no exception.

We do most of our grocery shopping here in central Florida at Publix, and they are the Kings of BOGO. They even BOGO wine, and I'm a BIG fan of this practice!

Really, anytime you find your favorite stuff at bargain prices, it is like a little mini Christmas right in the grocery aisle!

But BOGO isn't restricted to retail. We can sometimes find BOGO situations in the stock market as well.

I don't know about you, but I like to buy and own stuff. Real tangible things that I can touch and see as I make my way through the world.

Think about your average week. You probably go to the bank, either in person or online, a time or two. You gas up the car, stop at the grocery store, drive on the freeway, work in a commercial building or office of some sort, and maybe go to the doctor or dentist. You use electricity, perhaps some natural gas to heat your home, water, gasoline, and most likely relax by watching cable or satellite TV. All of this fits my definition of "stuff."

Once stuff is in place, it generates gobs of cash for years and often even decades. Toll roads, office buildings, power plants, cable systems, retail and medical real estate, and even the things needed to finance, build, and maintain stuff are examples of my favorite type of investments.

Let me say that again: Stuff.

Not ideas.

This puts me at odds with most of Wall Street, since they love to push you to buy big ideas – big, abstract ideas that may or may not work out so well in the long run.