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Outlook 2010

Only the Strongest Retailers Will Survive in 2010 as U.S. Consumers Continue to Battle Back

By , Money Morning - • Print | Email

The early returns on the 2009 holiday shopping season show a minor gain over last year's abysmal retail sales, and next year will affirm that retailers are successfully adapting to a consumer environment that's very different from years past.

However, 2010 will be difficult for retailers as they contend with high unemployment, tight credit, and aggressive competition.

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Retail sales gained 3.6% year-on-year from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, SpendingPulse, a unit of MasterCard Advisors (NYSE: MA) said earlier this week. But an extra day between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year may have skewed the data anywhere from 2% to 4%, SpendingPulse said. Sales in the same period last year declined 2.3% as consumers reeled from the financial meltdown that occurred in the fall.

"The latest holiday shopping season wasn't a rip-roaring success, but at least it met or slightly exceeded expectations," John Lonski, chief economist of Moody's Capital Markets Research Group (NYSE: MCO) told The Associated Press. "Consumer spending is indeed in a recovery mode, which brightens prospects for 2010."

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How to Profit From the Oil-Price Spike of 2010

By , Money Morning - • Print | Email

Oil prices staged a remarkable rally this year on the back of a weak dollar and a nascent economic recovery. In 2010, it's likely that these same factors will combine with an increase in global energy demand to push oil prices back up over $100 a barrel.

With stockpiles still high and energy demand rebounding sluggishly, most forecasts are calling for the "black gold" to edge up into the low-triple-digit price range. That's 40% higher than where oil is trading right now – but is still well below the record high of nearly $150 a barrel that was established in 2008.

Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald is even more bullish. He believes that a price of $100 a barrel is "easily attainable" and says that some sort of unforeseen market shock could cause crude oil to spike as high as $150 barrel by the end of 2010.

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The Three Tech Businesses Investors Can't Afford to Ignore in 2010

By , Money Morning - • Print | Email

The technology sector has always been about The Next Big Thing, and while next year will be no exception, products and services purchased will more reflect the needs of consumers and businesses – unlike the past when more tech buys reflected "wants."

Call 2010 the year of "necessary technology."

While 2009 has seen a dramatic turnaround in the world's stock markets, the rest of the key economic indicators – such as manufacturing, inventories, and jobs – have lagged behind. This has prompted less discretionary spending on technology, and even a postponement of some necessary purchases.

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How Washington Will Mess with Your Money in 2010

By , Money Morning - • Print | Email

In this era of growing government involvement, it's no surprise that Washington is poised to be the biggest economic wild card of the new year.

Indeed, investors who are trying to estimate the impact that politics will have on their portfolios in 2010 are likely finding this attempt at analysis to be an exercise in futility.

If that's been the case, read on: Political pundits – even those who claim to be impartial – spend a lot of time trying to score points for their side. But they aren't really that interested in the economic aspects of the endless battle. I certainly don't claim to be any more unbiased than the next person. However, I thought it worth trying to take an educated guess at what will actually happen, and what it will mean for our money.

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Buy, Sell or Hold: Government's HeavyHanded Plans Spawn Profits With These Three Top Stocks for 2010

By , Contributing Editor, Money Morning - • Print | Email

When government boosts its involvement in the economy, there's a predictable impact on interest rates, taxes, inflation, the country's currency and even its stock market. As a veteran global investor, I've seen this play out time and again in emerging-market economies, where it's commonplace for government to play an active and heavy-handed role.

I know from my years of experience just what to expect each and every time this story plays out. And that's not all.

I also know how to turn this special knowledge into beat-the-market profits.

Here in the United States, the Obama administration and the U.S. Federal Reserve are like two elephants that have been put to work brutishly reshaping the U.S. economy. We're already experiencing the effects of big government involving itself in the private sector. Expect the dollar to fall even more – after year-end profit-taking ends. Also expect a further deployment of government-stimulus money to industries where the United States has a large competitive advantage and can generate domestic jobs.

We'll be only too happy to ride the resulting economic shifts for profit.

In fact, as part of this installment of "Buy, Sell or Hold" – I've identified three of the best profit opportunities for the New Year. The three "must-own" companies – each poised to benefit from these shifts – are: Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW), The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) and Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE: CY). We offer them to you here as part of a Money Morning "Outlook 2010" Special Report.

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The Hottest Places to Invest in 2010

By , Money Morning - • Print | Email

[Editor's Note: Money Morning's "Outlook 2010" series delves into the best global profit plays for the new year.]

For global investors, 2010 is shaping up to be a year with two very distinct economic outlooks.

In the first "half," which is actually likely to end in early September, investors can expect a continued escalation in commodity prices, generally bullish stock markets and an ongoing focus on powerful monetary and fiscal "stimulus" initiatives. In the second "half," reality will reassert itself, and investors will find the going tough in many markets.

The real question is: "Which markets will win, and which ones will lose?"

Continue...

China Will Continue to Drive the Global Economic Recovery in 2010

By , Contributing Writer, Money Morning - • Print | Email

China isn't just leading the global economic recovery – it's lapping the field.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an 8.9% annual rate in the third quarter – the fastest pace in a year and up from 7.9% in the second quarter And the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for China's GDP to jump more than 10% in the final three months of 2009, setting the stage for double digit growth in 2010.

China has been the muscle behind the worldwide economic recovery for much of 2009. That role will continue in the New Year as the Red Dragon maintains its catalyst role.

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Can U.S. Bank Stocks Double Again in 2010?

By , Money Morning - • Print | Email

[Editor's Note: This report on the U.S. banking sector is the latest installment of our "Outlook 2010" series, which chronicles the global-investing outlook for the New Year.]

In February 2009, I reviewed the operations of the 12 largest U.S. banks, and concluded most of them were sound.

In fact, I told Money Morning readers that the soundest were at that point excellent investment opportunities.

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Why Gold Will Reach a Record $2,000 in 2010

By , Money Morning - • Print | Email

Gold has surged 60% in the past 12months and it’s not letting up. The “yellow metal” is continuing that scorching surge into the last part of the year, establishing new highs on a near-daily basis. In fact, gold established yet another record price yesterday (Wednesday) when it peaked at $1,153.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

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And the records are going to keep on coming.

With the U.S. dollar in a freefall and global gold demand rising, analysts say the precious metal will likely continue its bullish trend through at least the first half of 2010. It could rise as high as $2,000 an ounce, which would represent a 73% gain from current record levels.

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