Money Morning https://moneymorning.com Money Morning is here to help investors profit handsomely on this seismic shift in the global economy. In fact, we believe this is where the only real fortunes will be made in the months and years to come. Money moves markets. But Money Morning lets you move first. en Mon, 27 Jan 2020 13:42:02 +0000 Mon, 27 Jan 2020 13:42:02 +0000 5 How to Prepare for the Coming of NIRP to America https://moneymorning.com/2019/11/04/how-to-prepare-for-the-coming-of-nirp-to-america/ It's a phenomenon that simply shouldn't exist - one that manifests itself in weird, almost comical ways...

Borrowers are being paid to take out loans and mortgages... Imagine your account balance dropping in value as the bank "taxes" you each month for the "privilege" of keeping your money there.

And yet it's real. Very real: Negative interest rates are already in effect in at least eleven countries. As of the end of August 2019, an unfathomable $17 trillion in global debt was under a negative yield regime.

This isn't confined to fourth-tier economies, either. Several of those are among the world's largest, most advanced economies - like Germany, Japan, and France - where 10-year bonds trade with negative yields.

Incredibly, the total value of negative-yielding bonds is expected to keep rising as central banks keep pushing rates lower.

It's an experiment that will end badly.

Large banks are struggling, unable or unwilling to pass on those negative rates to their clients.

Meanwhile, odds are growing rapidly that America will be the next major economy to institute a negative interest rate policy (NIRP)... and all the negative effects and capital destruction that come with them.

Ultimately, hundreds of millions of investors will be victimized by this dubious practice.

But there's no need for you to be among them...

The Many Dangers of a Currency War

The odds are growing every day: NIRP is coming to America.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is looking ahead to the next recession or financial crisis and taking stock of the "ammo" at hand to fight it.

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It's been floating trial balloons and researching the idea. And the markets are pricing this in.

The European Central Bank introduced negative rates in 2014 in order to stimulate the economy. That was followed by the Bank of Japan, which did the same in 2016 to weaken the yen, as it was spiking and hurting exports.

On some level, pushing rates into negative territory can weaken a currency as investors flee for higher-yielding ones. But when no one wants a strong currency that hurts exports, it's not long before others use the same tactic and the benefits dissipate.

That's a currency war - a "beggar thy neighbor" policy - that becomes a downward spiral engulfing many.

The other goal of negative rates is to try and get savers to save less and spend more as they face the prospects of negative returns on deposits. You'd think if low rates stimulate economic growth, negative rates should do the same - but on steroids.

And yet like many harebrained policies, negative rates have unintended consequences. In some cases, as customer deposits shrink or accounts are closed altogether, banks actually make fewer loans, and the economy contracts. Bank profits take a hit, and share prices drop.

Banks need to attract deposits, which in turn allows them to fund new loans.

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A recent paper titled "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel" by researchers at Harvard University, Brown University, and Norges Bank of Norway determined that negative rates have these very effects. They examined the policies of Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank.

The paper states, "Using daily bank level data, we document that once the deposit rate becomes bounded by zero, interest rate cuts into negative territory lead to an increase rather than a decrease in lending rates... A calibration which matches Swedish bank level data suggests that a policy rate of -0.50% increases borrowing rates by 15 basis points and reduces output by seven basis points."

Another unintended consequence is currency hoarding. Rather than spend their money before negative rates take their bite, people begin to save even more and spend less capital. As they focus on their goals of retirement, a home purchase, or tuition, savers double down by saving even more. The real effect is deflation, which is the exact opposite of the inflation central bankers want.

Five years of negative rates have hurt European banks. In fact, they have been desperate to avoid passing those on to most retail clients, which is something corporate clients haven't been so lucky to escape. At the same time, these institutions are clamoring for ways to replace lost revenue.

Euro-area banks already pay over 7 billion euros annually just to leave funds on deposit with their central bank. In many cases, that's pushed their share prices to record lows thanks to falling revenue and profits.

Your Golden Opportunity amid All This Negative Yield

The Eurodollar futures market is used by larger market participants to hedge U.S. interest rates. It's a highly liquid market companies use to protect against interest rate risk if they have exposure to dollar-based financing agreements.

This market currently has large bets we'll see zero or negative U.S. interest rates within the next two years.

As JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (NYSE: JPM) head of U.S. interest rate derivatives strategy recently told The Wall Street Journal, "People are trading things that imply negative rates are not just possible but reasonably probable... The market's willingness to price in negative rates has gone up significantly."

The San Francisco Fed recently published a paper titled, "Yield Curve Responses to Introducing Negative Rates." Its main conclusion was that with rates already so low in so many developed nations, negative rates could be seen as a vital tool for the Fed in the next recession. Never mind that the actual experience has shown the opposite results.

That could mean negative-yielding Treasuries in addition to the $17 trillion in negative-yielding sovereign bonds already held worldwide.

Consider that those bondholders already worry that rates could drop further. As a result, they're ready to plow their cash into bonds that promise to pay them back less than their original capital 10 years later.

After cutting for the third time this year, the Fed rate is already down at 1.5%, and that's in a supposedly healthy economy with employment at record lows.

"We would need to see a significant move up in inflation before we could consider raising rates," Fed chairman Jerome Powell said during the press conference that followed Fed's October interest rate announcement. That suggests once inflation arrives, it could run hot for some time.

Gold reacted well to those comments, rising back above $1,500 to regain its 50-day moving average. With falling U.S. rates and negative rates across much of the world, gold's lack of yield is becoming less of an opportunity cost with each passing day.

In fact, the World Gold Council recently suggested that flat to inverted yield curves, high stock valuations, and a clear shift by central banks to an easy money policy favors gold. They proposed that gold could become attractive and a better diversifier than bonds, allowing for higher portfolio allocations.

Given the inherent risks of extremely low bond yields in the United States and negative yields in so many other parts of the world, gold's looking especially attractive. Central banks would know: they're buying gold at the highest rate in 50 years.

A simple way for retail investors to buy gold exposure is through the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS). It holds gold bullion that is fully allocated and stored at a secure third-party location in Canada, subject to periodic inspections and audits.

What's more, U.S. investors holding for at least 12 months can benefit from a 15% capital gains tax versus the 28% rate with most precious metals ETFs.

If you're just looking to maximize the yield on your cash, consider the BMO Harris Platinum Money Market. If you meet the $5,000 minimum deposit, you'll earn just over 2%, for now.

I suggest you take full advantage of those kinds of yields while they're available, because even the Fed's telegraphing that negative rates are on the horizon.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 04 Nov 2019 22:13:20 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/11/04/how-to-prepare-for-the-coming-of-nirp-to-america/ Here’s Why the Price of Gold Is Rallying from the U.S.-China Trade War https://moneymorning.com/2019/05/07/heres-why-the-price-of-gold-is-rallying-from-the-u-s-china-trade-war/ On Monday morning (May 6), U.S. President Donald Trump said over a series of tweets that the United States will increase its tariffs on Chinese goods again this week. This rise in trade tensions prompted investors to sell off riskier investments. That's kicked off a new rally in the price of gold.

The president said the United States will raise the tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% over the course of this week. Beyond that, the president says he intends to go after another $325 billion in Chinese goods with 25% tariffs in the future.

Of course, China wasn't happy about the president's latest tweets. Chinese stocks fell 5%, and Chinese officials threatened to skip a trade meeting scheduled for this week.


This was a shock to investors and trade watchers because the White House had been saying trade negotiations with China were going very well.

That news sent markets tumbling. The Dow initially fell by more than 400 points before rallying to close down 66 points. The S&P 500 shed 1% and closed 13 points down. The tech-focused Nasdaq dropped 1.1% and closed roughly 41 points down.

But when investor fears rise, safe-haven assets like gold get a boost. That's why the price of gold rallied after a four-month low last Friday.

In fact, spot gold's prices increased by 0.2% to $1,281.91 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures jumped 0.2% at $1,283.20 per ounce this morning.

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And while the broader market fell, gold stocks are riding gold's rally.

But this is just the start for rising gold prices.

Here's how the trade war could kick of a gold boom, sending prices nearly 10% higher...

What the Trade War Means for the Price of Gold

The price of gold has been stuck in a rut over the last month. But data suggests the lows were just small hiccups in gold's growing value.

Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth says there are two major reasons for gold prices to climb out of their funk. And the trade war uncertainty might be the catalyst we need to start the rally.

First, yield curve inversions are solid predictors of recessions. Because of this, investors tend to flee stocks when the yield curve inverts. The curve briefly inverted in March, which means investors may start to look for safer assets over the next year.

The dollar's rally last month certainly dented gold's value as well. But the newfound strength was mostly short-lived. With ever-growing economic uncertainty looming over the potential trade war, safe-haven assets like gold are rallying.

Second, the Fed is keeping rates flat and might even cut rates this year.

The current market is even beginning to price in future rate cuts. And this is exciting for gold investors.

The CME Group's FedWatch puts the probability of a cut by October 2019 at roughly 34%. By December 2019, it'll be 40%.

That's setting the stage for a renewed gold bull market, and the trade war is only pouring gas on the fire.

In fact, Peter Krauth says the year-to-date high of $1,340 that was set in February will be overtaken in the next few months.

After that, gold prices will challenge the high of $1,365. By year-end 2019, gold stands to grow another 9%...

If you're interested in Krauth's full analysis and price target for gold in 2019, you can check it out here...

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 07 May 2019 17:10:11 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/05/07/heres-why-the-price-of-gold-is-rallying-from-the-u-s-china-trade-war/ Why the Price of Gold Today Is a Sure Bargain https://moneymorning.com/2019/04/16/why-the-price-of-gold-today-is-a-sure-bargain/ The price of gold has managed to churn a few stomachs in the past month, but the data makes these lows look more like growing pains.

Gold surged through early March, from $1,285 all the way to $1,320. But toward the end of the month, it sold off pretty strongly as the U.S. dollar started a new rally.

That dragged gold prices all the way down to $1,287 in early April, before it recovered this past week to $1,307. Then, over the last couple of days, gold fell once more - this time to $1,290.


The yield curve inversion was a key factor here. On March 22, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below the yield on the three-month T-bill.

Yield curve inversions have been a rather accurate predictor of recessions (which typically begin about a year later). So investors freaked out, with a bond rally pulling the 10-year yield down to 2.4% as weak global growth became a bigger concern on disappointing data.

Further boosting the dollar, the Fed FOMC meeting minutes from March released last Wednesday showed a slightly less dovish stance than expected.

And that's how we've landed at $1,290.

But while the dollar's safe-haven rally may have dented gold, its strength already appears to have been short-lived. The price of gold today hovers near its mid-March levels. And with economic uncertainties growing, it looks like it will surprise many to the upside this year.

Here's why the price of gold could rise by as much as $110 - and how you can trade it for the highest potential gain.

How Fed Decisions Affect the Price of Gold

Something very interesting has happened the last two times we had a renewed upward trend in the yield curve.

Looking at the differential between the 10-year and the two-year treasury: It dropped and then flattened out in 2000 before trending higher. In 2007, it did the same thing again.

Once the Fed began cutting rates in response, causing the yield curve to steepen once again, gold and gold stocks began trending higher months in advance.

The reason this is exciting for gold investors is that it means the market is starting to price in future rate cuts. The CME Group's FedWatch pegs the probability of a cut by October at 34%, and by December at 40%.

The recent decline in the two-year yield from 3% in October to 2.35% today, shown in the chart below, is a dramatic 22% fall.

This kind of drop has preceded rate cuts, and as the yield approaches 2%, a cut becomes more likely.


This scenario bodes especially well for gold stocks and gold. Given these recent yield curve developments and higher probabilities assigned to lower rates by the market, savvy investors will want to watch this sector very closely.

I believe we are in the kind of plateauing phase that typically precedes a new bull market.

Signs of a Gold Bull Market

And I think we're going to see it weigh on the dollar before long.

As you can see in the chart below, despite the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sideways range-bound movement between 95 and 97.5 since October, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) momentum indicator has been trending downward for almost a year.

 


To me, concerns about a slowing global economy are going to weigh on the greenback, which for now enjoys safe-haven buying.

Meanwhile, inflation is creeping in. If investors don't believe it, they should consider this: The Bloomberg commodity index has just recently closed above its 200-day moving average (chart below).

It's worth noting, too, that the 50-day moving average is catching up to the 200-day, making a "golden cross" increasingly likely over the next couple of months (shown below).


 

Also consider that the Cleveland Fed has an alternative Consumer Price Index, the Median CPI. They feel it's a better forecaster of inflation. And it rose a stunning 2.8% in March, versus the regular CPI, which rose 1.9%.

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Even more noteworthy is that its six-month rolling average has been rising at a 3.2% annualized pace, the most since 2011. That's more than 50% above the Fed's targeted 2%.

Perhaps that's what commodities are sensing. And it's the perfect setup for precious metals.

As for gold, its recent lull could be temporary.

Although gold has pulled back considerably from its February high, it has managed to establish a series of higher lows so far. At the same time, the action in both the relative strength index and MACD momentum indicators confirms a rising trend.


Over the last three months, gold stocks have performed well, on their own and in relation to gold prices.

As you can see below, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) is up 5.6%, while gold is nearly flat over that time frame.


Since late January, GDX has essentially moved sideways but remains within a bullish upward trend channel.


But looking at the GDX-to-gold ratio below, we see an ongoing steady climb.


In fact, it's been grinding higher for seven months since bottoming in early September.

Yet another great leading indicator of gold's direction is platinum:


Platinum appears to be breaking out and has just established a six-month high. Currently, it's just 5.5% from a 52-week high.

With a spike in platinum, an inverted yield curve, and further global economic uncertainty down the road, well-performing gold stocks signal just the beginnings of a much stronger gold market.

In fact, this could all result in gold prices rising to $1,400 by the end of the year.

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The Top Gold Investment Picks

Now that you know the price of gold will almost certainly soar this year, here are a couple funds set to pop with it.

Naturally, these have struggled lately, but that just makes them better bargains right now.

The DB Gold Double Long Exchange-Traded Notes (NYSE: DGP) are down about 19%, but as gold's bull comes roaring back, this ETF will soar. Stay long DGP and/or buy on weakness.

The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) has retreated with gold's consolidation/correction and is now up just 1.5% since mid-January. Continue to buy on weakness.

Central banks continue to buy copious amount of gold. If you consider what's been going in bond markets, it's no surprise.

The yield curve inverted, likely foreshadowing a recession between 12 and 18 months from now. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt Index has surpassed $10 trillion worldwide, as investors fear slowing economic growth.

China's central bank bought 11.2 metric tons in March, pulling its reserves up to 1,885 metric tons. That makes for nearly 43 metric tons purchased by China in the last four months.

Given ongoing robust buying from other nations so far, 2019 looks like it will be similar to 2018, which saw the highest levels in over 50 years.

On that note, gold should return to bull action soon.

Its obvious first target will be the $1,340 high year-to-date, set in mid-February. I think we'll see that breached over the next couple of months. From there, I think gold will challenge the crucial $1,365 high, then go on to approach $1,400 by year's end.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 16 Apr 2019 19:20:44 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/04/16/why-the-price-of-gold-today-is-a-sure-bargain/ Here's Where the Price of Gold Is Headed in April 2019 https://moneymorning.com/2019/04/08/heres-where-the-price-of-gold-is-headed-in-april-2019/ The price of gold is going up, according to Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth. He says the recent pullback in gold prices was actually a healthy indication they would rise again this year.

Between August and mid-February, the precious metal rebounded 14%. Had this been a larger gain, the correction might have been worse.

Gold prices have fallen by about $60 off the recent peak, but Krauth says gains in the price of gold shouldn't necessarily be linear. Ideally, it's a series of several steps forward with an occasional step back.


Thanks to the Fed renewing its dovish outlook, reduced real rates will also serve as a catalyst for higher gold prices this year.

There is a seasonal factor to the rise of gold prices as well: Gold generally hits a bottom around the middle of March and then begins to climb through May.

In the past week alone, gold has already bounced back to around $1,286, which is a strong indication we've passed through the correction.

Knowing these things, here's what you can expect to gain from gold in April 2019.

Why the Price of Gold Is Rebounding

Gold produced significant gains between August and February, so the slight correction didn't come as a shock. But the rebound has been swift, with gold prices hitting a peak of $1,346 on Feb. 20.

There was a gain of 14.6%, or $171, from the low in August of $1,175. The correction gave back about 4.5% of that gain, or $60 to a price of $1,286.

There was a nearly perfect negative correlation between the gold price correction and a five-day delay in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

The DXY shows the dollar hitting bottom a few days after the February peak in gold prices. Then it peaked just after gold hit its recent low.

This action indicates the dip in gold price has run its course - one bullish indicator for gold prices is also when they post consistently higher lows.

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for March 5, there was a net drop of roughly 62% in gold futures. The precious metal continues to hold up well in the face of strong sales pressure.

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If you review the bull years for gold since 2001, the metal generally hits a bottom in the middle of March and then rallies through May. Expect a repeat of this for 2019.

This rally could push gold prices higher than their February highs, which is also projected in the Money Morning gold price predictions.

So, according to Krauth, it appears the gold correction has bottomed out. This and the gold price's typical seasonal trends throughout the year make for a great buying opportunity.

To get you started on profitable gold investing this year, here's the road map for gold in 2019.

Where Gold Prices Are Headed in April 2019

2019 has several indicators serving as strong gold price forecasts.

While the direction of the dollar remains uncertain, Krauth stresses that gold can continue to rally in the face of a strong dollar. The DXY remains above its 50-day moving average and continues to trend higher.

Now that gold prices are above their 50-day moving average as well, it looks like $1,300 could be the new support level.

Many other precious metal stocks were attempting to push higher even as gold prices were sitting at $1,285 in early March.

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) was trying to break higher between March 4 and March 7, which suggests we've seen the bottom of gold and a rise is imminent.

There is also the gold-stocks-to-gold ratio, which indicates that gold stocks persevered better than gold during the correction and had a quicker bounce back. Since the new rally began, gold stocks jumped three times as much as gold itself.

This kind of performance by gold equities could signal more strength on the way for both gold stocks and gold in the coming months.

Even though gold took a slight break from its nonstop rally between August and February, there is encouraging price action indicating positive things ahead.

Fundamentally, gold should continue its climb in 2019. Now, here's the best way that you can invest in gold in April 2019.

The Best Way to Buy Gold Now

In 2018, central banks loaded up on gold, buying more of it in volume than in any year since 1967.

Largely due to a rise in geopolitical and economic concerns, central banks are using gold as a means of safety and to diversify reserves.

The performance of gold in 2018 was better than most other major asset classes, due to this activity by central banks and the fact that gold ended a consolidation period lasting several years.

If you want to buy gold, expect these stocks to pop as the price of gold continues to increase throughout the year:

The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) is up roughly 7.5% since mid-January, still with significant headroom.

The DB Gold Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSEArca: DGP) is down due to the correction but will jump as the gold bulls recover. This is one to buy on weakness and hold long.

Gold prices are again on the upswing, but not yet near their all-time highs.

Krauth believes the price of gold could reach $1,350 over the next several months. It's on a firm trajectory toward $1,400 later in 2019.

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Follow Money Morning on Facebook and Twitter.

About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 08 Apr 2019 17:02:33 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/04/08/heres-where-the-price-of-gold-is-headed-in-april-2019/ Here's Why the Price of Gold Will Keep Going Up in 2019 https://moneymorning.com/2019/03/15/heres-why-the-price-of-gold-will-keep-going-up-in-2019/ Bulls can stop worrying about the price of gold falling anytime soon.

I've been telling you for a while that a pullback was not only normal, but healthy. Now that the data is in, I'm going to show you why.

Gold prices just notched a huge gain over a short six-month period, blasting 14% higher between August and mid-February.

That's big. And if the gold price had continued to power any higher, its correction could have been worse.


So chalk it up to normal bull action of three steps forward and one step back as gold continues to climb its golden staircase.

Although the price of gold has dropped by about $60 from its recent peak, we may have already seen the worst.

The Fed's renewed dovish stance has lower real rates back as a driving factor for higher 2019 gold prices.

And consider too that, seasonally, gold tends to bottom around mid-March then climb through until end of May.

Gold has already printed a solid bounce back to $1,310 in just the last few days, strongly suggesting its correction has run its course.

With all this in mind, there are big things ahead for the price of gold in 2019...

Why the Gold Price Is Bouncing Back

Over the past three weeks, gold has come to terms with its strong gains between August and February, with the metal's price peaking on Feb. 20 at $1,346.

From the August low of $1,175, that produced a striking gain of $171, or 14.6%.

Since that February peak, gold has dropped back by about $60 to $1,286, giving up a total of 4.5%.

This correction in the gold price has been an almost perfect negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with about a five-day delay.

Looking at the action in the dollar, we can see that the DXY bottomed a few days after gold's February peak, and may have peaked just after gold's recent low.


But even as gold has corrected, its recent price action suggests that correction may have already hit a low.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ending March 5 shows that the net long position in gold futures dropped some 62%.

And despite such sudden, strong selling pressure, gold has held up well.

So far, gold's March 7 low has held above its Jan. 24 low, providing for a bullish higher low pattern.

It's still a bit early, but I believe we've seen the bottom of this gold correction.

What's more, if you consider the seasonal patterns of gold's behavior, we could be in a sweet spot right now.

Looking at gold's bull years since 2001, it typically bottoms in mid-March, then starts on a spring rally through until the end of May. In the chart below, you see the "high lows" circled immediately before a rally begins. This pattern should continue into 2019.


I think this potential rally has the ability to push gold above its February high near $1,340 by then. If gold can close above that level, then its previous high of $1,350 (last April) will lie within close reach.

Stronger Indicators for the Price of Gold in April

As I've said in previous updates, the dollar's direction is anything but clear at this point.

The DXY remains above its 50-day moving average, and both the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence have been trending higher since early January.


As I've noted before, this doesn't seem to have gotten in gold's way, as gold prices have continued to rally in the face of a stronger dollar. That has been a bullish omen for gold in the past.

With the gold price back above its 50-day moving average, it's possible that $1,300 will now become a new support level.


If indeed the gold correction is over, it will have been relatively short, barely lasting three weeks.

Looking at gold stocks, we can see that even as gold was languishing around $1,285 between March 4 and March 7, they were attempting to push higher.

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) was trying to break higher each of those days, except for March 6, suggesting at the time that we could be witnessing a near-term bottom in gold, and that its next move would be higher.

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As it turns out, when we look at the gold stocks to gold ratio, it tells us that gold stocks held up better than gold through the correction and bounced back faster. In fact, gold stocks rose three times as much as gold since the metal started rallying late last week.


This kind of outperformance by gold equities may be foreshadowing more strength both in gold and gold stocks over the next few months.

So gold's taken a well-deserved break after rallying almost nonstop between August and February, and its technical price action is encouraging.

But on a fundamental basis, there are positive signs that gold is set to continue climbing higher this year. Here's how high the gold price is set to rise in 2019 - and a selection of the best investments for you to capitalize on it...

The Best Gold Funds for Your Money

2018 was exceptional for institutional gold buying. Central banks bought more gold by volume last year than in any year since 1967.

That makes it the most in over 50 years. Thanks to increased economic and geopolitical concerns, central banks turned to gold in a big way to diversify their reserves and seek safety and liquidity.

This, along with the fact that gold may have ended a long-term consolidation it started in mid-2016, may help explain why the safe haven dramatically outperformed most other major asset classes last year. The central bank has also been buying up significantly more gold each year since the 2008 financial crisis, as depicted in the chart below.


Below is one of my favorite gold charts for 2018 from the World Gold Council. You can see gold did better than not only most major stocks and global treasuries - it rose substantially in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar.


Of course, my January gold recommendations have pulled back with the sector.

The DB Gold Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSEArca: DGP) are down about 16%, but as gold's bull comes roaring back, this ETF will soar. Stay long DGP and/or buy on weakness.

The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) has dialed back along with gold's consolidation/correction, and yet it's still up a respectable 7.5% since mid-January. Continue to buy on weakness.

Despite the correction gold endured starting in mid-February, it remains solidly above its 200-day moving average.

And gold priced in over 70 different national currencies, including most major ones, is either at or near all-time highs.

So, by all accounts, gold continues in a long-term uptrend, and its recent correction could well be history.

I think the precious metal is headed toward $1,350 over the next few months and remains on a solid path toward $1,400 later this year.

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Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 15 Mar 2019 17:44:11 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/03/15/heres-why-the-price-of-gold-will-keep-going-up-in-2019/ How the Price of Gold Could Be Getting an Even More Bullish Catalyst https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/25/how-the-price-of-gold-could-be-getting-an-even-more-bullish-catalyst/ The price of gold consolidated again last week, but that stage of the climb might already be over. If the "golden staircase" pattern continues, gold prices could jump higher again soon.

Gold spent January like a lion, then entered February like a lamb. But momentum and interest have been building for the asset.


Early last week, gold rallied to a 10-month high, hitting my most recent target before dropping back. But even that retreat was short-lived as bargain hunters stepped in.

What's more, after two mega-mergers in the gold space in the last four months, Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: GOLD) says it's considered a possible merger with Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM).

And that has the sector abuzz.

With U.S. growth likely slowing, the newly dovish Fed is going to be very hesitant to hit the brakes via rate hikes. In fact, its next move may even be back to the gas pedal via rate cuts.

As it turns out, consumers looking out five to 10 years have lowered inflation expectations to 2.3%, equalling the lowest level on record. Even some Fed insiders have argued inflation should be allowed to overshoot 2%.

Once real interest rates head back toward zero and below and inflation outpaces yields, gold prices will soar.

Here's what happened with gold prices last week - and why I'm still bullish in my latest gold price prediction...

The Price of Gold Built Even More Momentum

Gold started roaring back this past week, hitting a 10-month high and my latest target at $1,340.

That means it easily surpassed January's high of $1,320, my previous target.

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Tuesday's (Feb. 19) action was explosive, certainly helped by a big retreat in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The dollar sold off, and the DXY dropped from above 97 to below 96.5 in a matter of hours, powering gold to $1,340 by noon. The dollar stabilized and the DXY remained near 96.5 while gold did the same and closed at $1,341.

Gold opened slightly higher on Wednesday (Feb. 20) at $1,343, peaked at $1,346 at noon, and then saw profit-taking set in as it dipped back to close at $1,338.

Here's the dollar's action in the form of the DXY for the past week:


On Thursday (Feb. 21), unsurprising profit-taking emerged in gold, aided by a bit of renewed dollar strength. The DXY regained 96.6 while gold fell back to close at $1,323.

But that didn't last long, as bargain hunters bought the dip on Friday (Feb. 22). The DXY dropped back below 96.5, while gold rallied to $1,330, a level it held at mid-afternoon.

That's actually great news for the price of gold.

In fact, it puts gold on the trajectory to hit my latest gold price target...

Why My Gold Price Prediction Remains Bullish

The dollar remains a bit of a wild card.

Although it has rallied of late, it did make a lower high, yet it's still trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Until it crosses below the 200-day moving average, we need to consider that the dollar is in a position of strength.


Both the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence are near mid-range, so they're not really giving any clues on direction.

The interesting thing is how strongly gold has performed since the DXY's rally off the 93.5 lows of mid-September.

We can see that gold bottomed only shortly after the DXY and has put in a massive rally since.


Like I detailed last week, gold can move higher for extended periods, even as the dollar does the same. And gold tends to rally significantly higher once those simultaneous dollar advances finally end.

In that context, gold's bull could just be getting started.

Interestingly, spot gold prices reached then retreated at the level I had targeted, $1,340. This is still my next target, which gold will need to cross above and hold. At that point, $1,340 could become a new floor as gold then works its way to $1,360 in the "golden staircase."

A quick look at how gold stocks have been performing is also pretty revealing.

Notice that the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) has powered higher, surpassing its April high of $23. I think this could lead to some short-term profit taking, but $23 could become a new floor.


Also notice that we have a "golden cross", with the 50-day moving average crossing up over the 200-day moving average, and volume has been rising gradually since June.

Now the GDX-to-gold ratio is also advancing, meaning gold stocks are rising more quickly than gold.


We see a similar pattern to GDX alone. Sentiment is certainly favorable toward gold, but the shift toward gold stocks has been stronger.

Here's a look at my recent recommendations.

The DB Gold Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSEArca: DGP) are down about 9.2%, but it's only been a little over one month. Gold's bull is looking strong, so stay long DGP and/or buy on dips.

The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) has participated nicely in the rise of gold stocks and is now up about 10.4% since mid-January. Continue to buy on dips.

Gold continues to look strong, but it could still be overbought. As we near the end of February, the seasonal pattern favors a pullback or at least more consolidation. But given how gold's been behaving, it may still surprise to the upside.

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Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 25 Feb 2019 18:41:42 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/25/how-the-price-of-gold-could-be-getting-an-even-more-bullish-catalyst/ Gold Prices Rallied 32% the Last Time This Pattern Appeared https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/19/gold-prices-rallied-32-the-last-time-this-pattern-appeared/ Gold prices traditionally move inversely to the dollar. But when they move higher together, it could mean a breakout to the upside is coming. And that's exactly what we're seeing right now...

We are already halfway through February, and gold prices are still in the midst of a consolidation phase.

gold prices
The most interesting thing about it is how mild it has been, at least so far.

Since crossing above $1,320 in late January, gold prices have traded in a pretty narrow range, closing between $1,307 and $1,324.

Even more impressive is how the price of gold has held up in that range, clearly above $1,300, in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has actually rallied since the end of January, gaining as much as 150 basis points.

Normally a stronger dollar is bad for gold. But that's not always the case. There have been periods when both rose simultaneously.

And what happened to gold afterwards will impress you.

I'll show you exactly what that means for gold prices after we recap last week's gold price action...

The Price of Gold Moved Laterally Last Week

It was a relatively uneventful start to the week in gold as the price began last Monday (Feb. 11) at a low of $1,305. This was just as the DXY was beginning a new climb, having reached 96.8 at 8 a.m.

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The dollar rallied, pulling its index up to 97.10 by 2 p.m., and surprisingly, gold bounced back to $1,309 by mid-afternoon.

The dollar backed off on Tuesday (Feb. 12), retreating from an early-morning peak at 97.17, then dropping back to 96.7 by early afternoon. That was enough to give gold reprieve, allowing it to rally back to a close at $1,311.

But the dollar index soared back on Wednesday (Feb. 13), well above 97, peaking at 97.25 just after 5:30 p.m. Gold took it on the chin, bottoming at $1,306 at 3 p.m.

Here's the DXY in the rearview mirror for the past week:

gold price

Just before markets opened on Thursday (Feb. 14), it seemed gold wouldn't get any loving on Valentine's Day. Gold bottomed at 7 a.m. at $1,304. But lots of bargain hunters stepped in, bidding the metal back up to $1,311 at 8 a.m., finally closing at $1,313. Meanwhile, the DXY bounced between 97 and 97.25, finally ending the day at 97.

Then on Friday (Feb. 15), even as the DXY remained strong above 97, gold roared back, opening at $1,318. The dollar index sold down to 96.9 by the close, helping gold climb further to reach back above $1,320, closing at $1,321.

And on Monday (Feb. 18), with stock markets closed for Presidents Day, gold performed well. The DXY hovered around 96.8, but gold had begun climbing the previous evening, and it ended the shorter trading day at $1,326.

While I expect to see a bit more of this consolidation, gold prices moving alongside the DXY has historically been very good for the metal.

Here's why that could help gold reach my latest target price...

We're On Track for My Latest 2019 Gold Price Target

The DXY has certainly managed a decent comeback from its recent lows near 95. It has "tested" 97, but so far, that seems to remain as overhead resistance.

gold

Looking at the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence, momentum seems to be on the dollar's side. And with the DXY back above 96 (the 50-day moving average), it does appear to have strength.

The recent closes at or below 97 do, however, highlight a lower high than what the DXY was able to manage in November and December. For now, it appears to me that the jury is out and we need to give the DXY more time to tell us where it's headed next.

The encouraging aspect of this is how well gold has held up.

So far, at least, gold's correction has been negligible. In fact, it would seem more appropriate to call it a consolidation, especially against the backdrop of a stronger dollar.

price of gold

After gold's January rally that took it from $1,280 to $1,324, gold has stayed in a range between $1,304 and $1,324. Impressively, until now, $1,300 has remained as the new support level.

Barring any black swans, I'd expect to see gold continue to move in this range a little longer, perhaps another week or two, until it starts to move higher once more.

I think the "golden staircase" pattern I noted last week will continue to play out, potentially pulling gold to $1,340 next, followed by $1,360.

Like I said above, gold doesn't have to hurt just because the dollar is strong. Yes, that's often how things play out. But when gold rises at the same time as the dollar, to me it's a sign of even more strength.

In the chart below, I've highlighted extended periods when the dollar rose. As you can see, they certainly didn't seem to be impediments to gold's advance. Between April 2005 and April 2006, gold surged by 58%.

gold price action

And between spring 2008 and midyear 2010, the dollar rallied 25%. In that time, gold ran up by 32%.

But note that the period following those yellow bars, when the dollar declined significantly, gold continued to power much higher.

For all we know, we could be at the start of one of those times when both the dollar and gold move higher together. If so, that's great. But remember, once the dollar goes back into bear mode, gold could see a huge move up for months or years.

Consider too the rising tide of central banks buying gold that I pointed out last week. Now we've got news that China has bought nearly 10 metric tons of gold in December, plus an additional almost 12 metric tons in January. And according to Commerzbank, "In the past, the PBOC has tended to buy gold for several months in succession."

Here's a look at my recent recommendations:

The DB Gold Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSEArca: DGP) are down about 7.8%, but it's only been a little over one month. Gold's bull is looking strong, so stay long DGP and/or buy on dips.

The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) has participated nicely in the rise of gold stocks and is now up about 7.4% since mid-January. Continue to buy on dips.

To sum up, gold's been consolidating for two weeks. But the downside has been very limited so far. Gold seems to be signalling good strength in the face of a strong-ish dollar.

Conditions look very favorable for the new bull to continue. Let's wait and see what gold does once this consolidation phase runs its course.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 19 Feb 2019 20:37:06 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/19/gold-prices-rallied-32-the-last-time-this-pattern-appeared/ What the "Golden Staircase" Pattern Means for Gold Prices This Week https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/11/what-the-golden-staircase-pattern-means-for-gold-prices-this-week/ Even though gold prices broke out in a big way to start the year, they've reached a lull in February. But this is actually a good thing.

Gold was up 3.1% in January alone and was up 10.3% between mid-November and the end of January.

Consolidation is not only to be expected; it's healthy. What we need to watch for now is how long it lasts and how much gold prices correct.

gold prices
In the past week, the price of gold tested the $1,300 level, with buyers stepping in at $1,303 to provide support.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's White House dinner with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday (Feb. 5), the day before his State of the Union address, made economists uneasy about Fed independence.

And President Trump's speech on Tuesday (Feb. 6) provided little in the way of catalysts, other than possibly helping to buffer the dollar as traders grew weary of trade wars.

Looking at the movement of gold prices over the last six months, we can see it's following a unique pattern - what I coined the "golden staircase" years ago. That's when gold moves up, then sideways, and repeats the process in a discernable pattern over months and even years.

So despite a week that brought a relief rally in the dollar, gold still managed to hold its own as it contemplated a period of consolidation.

And given the robust buying from central banks in 2018 and institutional investors over the last several months, gold is looking solid indeed. I expect gold to continue to climb the golden staircase, and I'll lay out exactly where it's headed in my latest gold price prediction below...

Why Gold Prices Plateaued Last Week

After closing around $1,317 the previous week, the price of gold started out Monday on a weaker tone as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gained some steam. It climbed to 95.85 that morning and then moved sideways. Gold prices weakened initially but closed at $1,312.

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Gold prices managed to hold around $1,314 through most of Tuesday, even as the DXY climbed above 96. But as the DXY sailed higher on Wednesday (Feb. 7) in the wake of the State of the Union address, gold succumbed and closed the day at $1,306.

Here's how the DXY looked last week...

gold

By Thursday (Feb. 8) the DXY had reclaimed the 96 level, but gold rebounded along with it, both favored as safe havens as markets sold off. Gold closed at $1,309.

And on Friday (Feb. 9), with flat stock markets and a sideways dollar, gold gained again, climbing steadily to close the week at $1,314.

But as I said before, this is a good sign. Gold prices consolidate before moving higher, and that's been the consistently bullish pattern for gold prices.

Here's how high gold prices can go...

How High the Golden Staircase Will Carry Gold Prices

The dollar has managed to rally in the past week, regaining its 50-day moving average.

With this data point, we can see that since the start of this year, both the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence have turned higher. If this continues, then it could be a shift from the dollar's recent downward trend.

gold price

While this could be a headwind for gold (and it normally is) it's interesting to note just how well the yellow metal has held up.

In fact, I've highlighted gold's move while the dollar has trended higher on balance since early January.

Obviously, the dollar's relative strength in that period doesn't seem to have done much to slow gold's advance from $1,290 to $1,320.

price of gold

And in the following chart, I've marked out the "golden staircase" pattern that gold seems to be following since August. Notice how the price consolidates in a sideways range for a time, then climbs, then repeats the sideways move, and climbs again.

That's a bullish pattern that I've noticed forms in gold. Interestingly, it tends to happen both on a short-term basis (months) as well as on a longer-term basis (years).

Here it is...

gold price prediction

On the fundamental side, there's been some bullish news as well. And it may in fact explain just why gold's been so strong for the past four months.

Central bank gold purchases in Q4 2018 were the highest on record, and 2018 was the highest in any year since 1967.

golden staircase

In December, institutional investors bought gold ETFs hand over fist, acquiring 76 metric tons and pushing levels last seen in 2013. Then in January, gold ETFs saw an inflow of another 72 metric tons worth $3.1 billion, marking four consecutive months of inflows.

Only time will tell, but given how many times gold tested $1,300 as overhead resistance before closing above it, I think it could well be strong support in the current consolidation phase.

Right now, gold appears to have entered a new "step stage." Once it breaks above the $1,325 level, odds are it will climb higher and then form a new step.

But first, look for gold to consolidate and digest its recent gains. It's a well-deserved break.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2019 18:29:51 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/11/what-the-golden-staircase-pattern-means-for-gold-prices-this-week/ The Price of Gold Is Surging Thanks to an Unlikely Catalyst https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/04/the-price-of-gold-is-surging-thanks-to-an-unlikely-catalyst/ The price of gold is now trading at an eight-month high.

Only one week ago, gold prices finally closed above $1,300 after multiple attempts to break through.

Today, gold has not only overtaken my first target of $1,310; it's testing my next gold price target of $1,320.

price of gold
That has my gold recommendations rallying nicely too.

And we have an unlikely suspect to thank: the Fed.

A complete reversal by the U.S. Federal Reserve last week cemented the new bull in gold and gold stocks.

Not only did the Fed omit any indication about its next rate moves, a statement concerning the Fed's balance sheet says it will now need to maintain a larger portfolio than originally planned.

Of course, stock market investors cheered this news. But gold traders absolutely loved it, sending the metal to $1,322.

With my Q1 target already met, my next gold prediction is looking even more likely.

Let's break down what happened with gold prices last week and take a in-depth look at my next gold price target...

The Price of Gold Is in Bull Market Territory

Gold prices were already climbing early last week in anticipation of the Fed meeting outcome.

The precious metal rose steadily on Monday (Jan. 28) and Tuesday (Jan. 29), closing at $1,302 and then $1,311 respectively.

But of course, the really big move happened Wednesday (Jan. 30), as the Fed's post-meeting statement was released.

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Gold had been trending downward all morning from near $1,315 to bottom just below $1,310 by 2 p.m. Then it exploded higher within 45 minutes to $1,323 before settling the day at $1,319.

The DXY did nearly the exact opposite during that same time. Here's what the last five days have looked like:

gold

On Thursday (Jan. 31) and Friday (Feb. 1) gold spent both days in retreat mode, digesting its recent gains as traders took profits.

That pulled gold back to close at $1,318 on Thursday as the DXY bounced from a low of 95.19 to 95.55.

On Friday, the DXY remained near that same level, and gold backed off on news from the U.S. Labor Department that a robust 304,000 jobs were created in January. Gold ended the week at $1,317.

That's perfectly positioning gold to hit my next target level...

Where Gold Prices Are Heading Now

By all accounts, the dollar has continued its bout of weakness.

Needless to say, the Fed's silence on future rate hikes helps keep the outlook dovish.

I can see how the DXY might find temporary support near 95, which lines up well with the current 200-day moving average.

gold prices

But the Fed's about-face from where it was in December suggests the dollar's going to face more weakness.

The DXY's 50-day moving average continues trending downwards, so I continue to expect dollar weakness. However, we could see the index move temporarily sideways near its current level first.

Gold, on the other hand, has been on a spectacular tear.

It may even have been "too strong". That's not to say that this rally is not overdue.

It's just that the jump from $1,280 to $1,325 was very quick. Notice that the relative strength index is now into overbought territory at 74.7.

gold price

I see one of two scenarios likely to play out from here.

Either gold consolidates around the $1,320 level, which was my latest target, or it drops back further but finds support at $1,300. I just want to caution readers not to be surprised either way.

Remember too that back in early January I said, "Overall, gold seems well positioned to reach for $1,300 in Q1."

Well, we've met that target - and just in the first month of 2019. This bodes well for gold and for my $1,400 target by year's end. I may even have to revise that higher.

Meanwhile, looking at the gold-stocks-to-gold ratio shows us a dramatic surge by the equities versus the metal, and that's despite gold's dramatic jump.

gold price target

Here's a look at my recent recommendations.

The DB Gold Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSEArca: DGP) are down about 9.4%, but it's only been three weeks. Gold's bull is looking strong, so stay long DGP and/or buy on dips.

The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) has participated nicely in the rise of gold stocks and is now up about 7% since mid-January. Continue to buy on dips.

To sum up, gold's been on fire, and conditions look very favorable for the new bull to continue. But after such a strong January, February could bring consolidation.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 04 Feb 2019 17:59:51 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/04/the-price-of-gold-is-surging-thanks-to-an-unlikely-catalyst/ Venezuela Shows Us Just How Important It Is to Own Gold During a Crisis https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/01/venezuela-shows-us-just-how-important-it-is-to-own-gold-during-a-crisis/ Gold has been a store of value and wealth for more than 5,000 years, dating back to ancient Egypt. And here in America, the value of the U.S. dollar was fixed to gold in 1792, when Congress passed the Mint and Coinage Act. That would last until we went off the gold standard in the 1970s.

Yet through it all, the yellow metal maintained its aura. Even though no major currency is tied directly to gold anymore, central banks around the world still maintain a cache in order to defend their currencies. Its utility as a hedge against economic trouble is unparalleled.

The benefits of owning gold are made crystal clear by the crisis in Venezuela.

If you lived in Venezuela and owned gold, you would be one of the few citizens there who made the right financial move. Annualized inflation is estimated to be between 80,000% and 100,000%. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested it would be closer to 1,000,000%. Compare that with the annual U.S. inflation rate at 1.9%.

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In other words, hyperinflation destroyed their currency. With inflation levels that high, fiat money became worthless. And when the economy collapsed, what scarce resources were left were too expensive for the average person to buy.

But if you owned gold, it held its value, and it could've been your lifeline out of the crisis...

How Owning Gold Could Save You

Gold has been a quiet portion of a well-balanced portfolio for decades. It aids your portfolio's performance when times are good and helps keep it stable when conditions are not so good. It makes sense for anyone to have a reasonable portion of your money - something around 2% - in gold.


"Even a small amount helps dampen overall portfolio volatility yet still offsets the principle risk to your bond holdings associated with inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and economic volatility," says Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald.

Contrary to popular opinion, gold isn't a pure hedge against inflation. Instead, there's a direct link between gold and interest rates, which are, in turn, driven by inflationary pressures and global risk, especially lately.

That also means you can avoid the worst of the fallout as the Fed continues to threaten stock gains with its headstrong move toward higher interest rates.

Plus, gold offers investors growth upside. The metal bottomed on August 16, 2018 at $1167.10 per ounce, and as of the close Thursday, it traded at $1,325.20. That's a gain of 13.5%. Not bad when the Nasdaq was about to plunge into a bear market, losing 24% from August through December.

And while stocks have made a nice recovery since their lows, gold also rallied to nine-month highs. Win-win.

However, just owning gold is not enough when crisis hits. You have to be able to access your gold.

The Maduro government was smart enough to stockpile gold before they destroyed their economy, but now they can't get to it. Their gold is held at the Bank of England, and the British government isn't about to let them have it. It does the regime no good at all if it just sits in a vault.

While that might be poetic justice for the tyrannical regime, you don't want to find yourself in a similar position when you need gold. Investors need to be able to access their gold for it be useful in times of uncertainty - and especially if a crisis unfolds.

Here are the three best ways to do it...

The 3 Best Ways to Own Gold

Gold is a scarce asset, and it cannot be created out of thin air the way a paper currency can. It is priced in dollars, so any event that pushes the value of those dollars lower must, by definition, push the price of gold higher. That's why it maintains worth, unlike a bank account or a paper asset.

It is important for investors to own gold in some form, but actual, real, physical gold is the best way. Even gold certificates and futures contracts are mere promises that someone will give you the value of the gold. While in normal times, that would be good enough, should a crisis hit and the financial system locks up, those paper promises would only be worth the paper itself.

We've all seen the ads on television with a highly paid celebrity extolling gold's virtue. While they're probably charging you an arm and a leg to buy it from their company, it's easy to buy and sell real gold. It doesn't matter whether you open an account with a gold dealer, the U.S. Mint, or simply head down to the local gold and jewelry shop at the strip mall.

You can buy one-ounce gold coins, such as the American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, South African Krugerrand and many others. You can even buy small coins in one-tenth ounce, one-quarter ounce, and one-half ounce sizes if you don't want to buy in $1,322 increments - the current price of an ounce of gold.

If you feel more comfortable with buying and selling on the stock exchange, exchange-traded funds are a good alternative, too. SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEArca: GLD) is an ETF that tracks the price of gold.

It's highly liquid, but while the fund owns real gold, you cannot take delivery of that gold. However, you can still cash it in any time you want to get the benefit of the increase in its price. This is for people who want the benefits of owning gold without wanting to worry about keeping it secure in their homes.

If you want a hybrid between real gold and a traded gold fund, Fitz-Gerald likes the Merk Gold Trust ETF (NYSEArca: OUNZ). It is one of a small handful of gold ETFs that allows investors the opportunity to turn in their shares for the delivery of actual physical gold bullion, like bars and coins.

Any way you want to do it, dedicating a small portion of your portfolio to gold in some form will protect you from, as the gold broker pitchman put it, the "financial craziness" of today's world.

The takeaway is that gold is an important hedge against crises, and that while we aren't predicting that the United States will turn into Venezuela, another financial crisis like we saw in 2008 could threaten your personal wealth.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 01 Feb 2019 19:15:51 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/02/01/venezuela-shows-us-just-how-important-it-is-to-own-gold-during-a-crisis/ Why a Legendary Investor Is Betting Big on the Price of Gold https://moneymorning.com/2019/01/22/why-a-legendary-investor-is-betting-big-on-the-price-of-gold/ The price of gold continued its lateral movement last week, but veteran gold traders are used to a plateau after a rally.

But we're seeing a barrage of bullish indicators for gold right now, including a billionaire investing mogul jumping into the space.


After all, the big rally that took gold prices back into bull mode did so convincingly.

Gold is well above its 200-day moving average, which should provide support if current weakness becomes a bit more near-term correction.

But none of the fundamental drivers have seen much change. Trade tariffs are still a major issue, the U.S. government shutdown is still in place, global growth is slowing, and the Fed's become more dovish.

With yet another billionaire throwing his hat into the gold ring, the arguments for owning the ultimate hedge have gotten even stronger.

Add in a mega-merger to form the world's largest gold miner, and you have the makings for more strength in gold.

Let's take a closer look at what's going on, including where I see gold prices heading next...

Why the Price of Gold Won't Stay Flat for Long

The price of gold got to within less than $4 of $1,300 a full seven times in the last few weeks.  But each time, traders seized those highs as an opportunity to sell and take profits.

Once gold prices can close convincingly above $1,300, that could well become a new "floor," with gold then working its way higher.

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Still, over the past week, gold has mostly meandered sideways.  Between Monday (Jan. 14) and Thursday (Jan. 17), gold reached $1,288 on the low and $1,295 on the high.

But by Friday (Jan. 18), optimism continued to grow over prospects that the U.S.-China trade spat was nearing an end.

Stocks rose on more relief rallying during the week too. The combination of these two variables lifted the dollar even further on Friday.

We can see that in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) below...

gold prices

That Friday-morning surge in the DXY took it from just above 96 to almost 96.4 in short order.  That was enough to beat gold back, and the price of gold fell from $1,286 to $1,281 by late in the trading day.

Then on Monday (Jan. 21), a shortened trading day for gold and a holiday for stock markets, gold dipped a bit further even as the DXY held steady around 96.34.

But as I said earlier, we're still in bull mode, and I expect a break above gold's resistance level will send gold prices higher.

And from what I'm seeing in my gold charts, one indicator shows we're poised for a new breakout.

It's no wonder a legendary real estate billionaire is moving into gold...

My Latest Gold Price Prediction for February

Looking at price action in the dollar index over the past week shows a bit of renewed strength.

Given how long momentum had been trending downwards (since early November), it's not a complete surprise for the dollar to be putting on what may only be a relief rally.

I think the DXY is likely to find overhead resistance near current levels, its 50-day moving average.

gold price

Huge ongoing deficits and a Fed that's promised to be more "data-dependent" should keep pressure on the dollar and help push the DXY gradually lower.

As for gold, we can see that the rest I said we should expect has materialized.


I still see $1,260 as a likely "floor" if more weakness should come.  At this point, we could see a bit more consolidation or even softness as this correction finishes playing out.

Now let's look at my recent suggested trades.

The DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSEArca: DGP) has given back about 15% as it leveraged gold's recent dip. DGP is a buy.

The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) also dipped, but that was limited to about 4%. GDXJ is also a buy.

Interestingly, gold's 50-day moving average (blue sloping line) is about to complete a "golden cross" once it rises above the 200-day moving average (red sloping line).

That's a bullish technical breakout pattern, which will give more weight to the renewed gold bull market.

There's also been news lately that yet another billionaire has decided that he needs to own gold now.

Sam Zell, founder of Equity Group Investments and real estate mogul extraordinaire, told Bloomberg TV, "For the first time in my life, I bought gold because it is a good hedge. Supply is shrinking, and that is going to have a positive impact on the price."

The outspoken investor has joined other billionaires like Ray Dalio, David Einhorn, and Jeffrey Gundlach, as some of the most seasoned investors have touted the metal's benefits in today's investment atmosphere.

As well, Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) recently announced its plan to take over Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG). That will help it leapfrog the "new Barrick," which itself was a result of Barrick Gold acquiring Randgold Resources.

If approved, Newmont Goldcorp will then become the largest gold miner, potentially sparking further M&A activity and renewed excitement in the sector.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 22 Jan 2019 20:42:11 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/01/22/why-a-legendary-investor-is-betting-big-on-the-price-of-gold/ Juice Your Profits as Gold Prices Rise with This Simple Play https://moneymorning.com/2019/01/14/juice-your-profits-as-gold-prices-rise-with-this-simple-play/ After a blistering rally in gold prices since mid-December, the precious metal is finally gearing up for a bull market run. And you can double your returns with my simple strategy.

That rally vaulted gold from $1,237 to almost $1,300 - a 5% gain in a month.

Over the past week, the price of gold has traded in a range between $1,280 and $1,297 as the metal consolidates, digesting its recent gains.

gold prices
Recently released Fed FOMC December meeting minutes revealed that committee members have become increasingly uncertain about the timing of future rate hikes.

That caused further weakness in the dollar, helping oil regain $51 per barrel after hitting a Christmas Eve low of just under $44.

And speaking of the dollar, it's looking increasingly challenged as rate hikes are in doubt.

At the same time, other large central banks like the ECB are suggesting the possibility of initiating their own series of rate hikes later this year. That has the euro attracting capital and competing with the dollar.

Meanwhile, technical price action has helped confirm the start of a new gold bull market.

That's creating a rare new opportunity for gold traders, and I'll show you my simple recommendation on how you can "juice" your gold profits...

Gold Prices Are Staging a New Rally

The price of gold has essentially gained no ground over the past week after moving within a $17 range.

Nonetheless, that's still impressive if you consider that the major U.S. stock indexes were up significantly over the last five trading days.

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And after the VIX volatility index peaked on Dec. 24 and then proceeded to get cut in half, gold continued to rise on the back of uncertainty.

Take a look at the VIX's rise and fall here...

gold

While gold's been competing with rising stocks and oil prices over the last few weeks, it's still managed to rise and then hold those gains.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held steady from Monday until early Wednesday around 95.8, then slipped to test support at 95 late Wednesday (Jan. 9), before clawing its way back on Thursday (Jan. 10), then ending Friday (Jan. 11) near 95.7.

Here's how that ride looks in the DXY chart...

gold price

Despite this late-week bounce, the dollar's downward trend seems to be getting increasingly entrenched.

And that should be great for gold.

Now, here's how to ratchet up your returns with my simple play...

How to Amp Up Your Profits During This Gold Price Rally

Before we get into my play, let's revisit the U.S. dollar. Here's a look at the DXY price action.

There are several things to note. First, the DXY has failed at the 50-day moving average and then moved lower. It's now hitting support at 95, and it looks to be heading toward its 200-day moving average of 94.5.

You can see that here...

gold pull market

The 200-day moving average could well provide new temporary support, but given the ongoing negative momentum evidenced by the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicators, I expect it's a matter of time before the DXY breaks through the 200-day level.

And that will help confirm a new bear market in the dollar.

As for gold, we've just seen both the RSI and MACD momentum indicators pull back.

gold profits

Here's what I had to say in a recent update:

Any retreat from current levels is likely to be met with buying at the $1,260 level, helping to form a new floor at the 200-day moving average.I think with momentum indicators becoming a bit stretched, gold could need a little while to break through $1,300. I expect that level will bring with it some overhead resistance, and the gold price will need a few attempts to close above it.

But once that happens, I believe $1,300 will then become a new "floor" for the gold price, establishing a "launch pad" for gold to reach for its previous high last year of $1,360.

Last week's price action shows gold has indeed entered at least a near-term consolidation, which is clear from its recent sideways move.

But that's likely just a pause to build up energy for its next move higher.

With gold now distinctly above its 200-day moving average, a new bull market has begun.

For anyone who wants to get on board and "juice" their potential gold returns, here's my recommendation.

The DB Gold Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSEArca: DGP) is a 2x leveraged gold ETF.

Shares have blasted higher, especially in the past week. But remember, the leverage works both ways, and if we get a pullback in gold, DGP will drop about twice the percentage gold does.

Take a look at how quickly it surged higher. That's just the beginning if this gold rally keeps going too.

gold price rally

You can buy now with the aim of holding as long as gold remains in an uptrend, above its 200-day moving average. Or you can wait for a retreat in the gold price before buying DGP. Just be aware that may not materialize.

Also, gold stocks are now in a bull market with junior and mid-tier miners outperforming the majors.

The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) is an easy one-click way to gain exposure. And with GDXJ now above its 200-day moving average, this is a great time to add exposure to the sector.

gold prices

We'll check in on these trades regularly.

Meanwhile, just remember, with gold back above its 200-day moving average, the metal has now returned to quiet bull-market status.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 14 Jan 2019 18:34:21 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/01/14/juice-your-profits-as-gold-prices-rise-with-this-simple-play/ The Price of Gold Will Keep Rallying in 2019 – Here's My Newest Target https://moneymorning.com/2019/01/02/the-price-of-gold-will-keep-rallying-in-2019-heres-my-newest-target/ Any doubts about gold's new bull run should now be put to rest.

It's true the price of gold started out 2018 just above $1,300 and ended the year just below that level for a small 1.7% annual loss. That has some of the most ardent bulls abandoning the asset.

But looking at gold's action since mid-August and especially since mid-October (when equity markets began a serious global sell-off) shows a new bull has begun.

Gold and its related equities have started climbing a wall of worry, boosted in part by the Fed's new dovish demeanor.

As much as the Fed wants us to think it ignores stock market vagaries, there's little doubt that equity performance influences policy.

With all major U.S. indexes turning in a negative annual performance for 2018, their worst in a decade, retail and institutional investors alike are going to be on the hunt for alternatives.

price of gold
I strongly believe the gold price will be one of the biggest beneficiaries, even if stocks manage to recover. That's because volatility will almost certainly be a big part of 2019's investing landscape.

Before I give you my newest target for the price of gold, here's how the metal is trending to start the New Year...

How the Price of Gold Is Moving in 2019

In 2018, the Dow fell 5.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 6.2%, and the Nasdaq dipped 4%.

Although gold prices posted a 1.7% loss for the year, overall action for the metal paints the clearer picture.

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Stocks got off to a rough start in 2018 between January and March, but went on to rally steadily all the way through early October.

That's when the correction started, taking the S&P 500 down a whopping 19.76% by Christmas Eve. And that's a hair away from the textbook 20% drop that's considered a bear market.

After rallying late in 2017, gold prices spent the first four months of 2018 between $1,300 and $1,360. But by then, a hawkish Fed and consistent rate hikes beat gold back, launching a correction phase which took the metal down to $1,180 in early August.

From there, gold moved mainly sideways, with a slight upward bias. But when equities began their global slump in early October, gold returned to bull mode, quickly regaining the $1,220 level, then rallied strongly when the Fed began sounding dovish once again.

Once the Fed's December rate hike became a fact, gold rallied by nearly $50, or 4% from mid-December until now.

Since my last update just before the Christmas holidays, the dollar has been struggling, unable to get back above 97.

Here's how that's looked over the past month:

gold prices

As for stocks, after a dramatic sell-off leading up to Dec. 24, they've since bounced back to regain their pre-holiday levels.

For its part, gold has risen nearly every single trading day since. The precious metal started out on Dec. 24 at $1,262 and ended comfortably at $1,269. A breathtaking stock rally on Wednesday, Dec. 26 saw gold run up to $1,278 by mid-morning, only to retreat back to close at $1,269.

Then on Thursday and Friday, post-Christmas, gold rallied to close at $1,275 then $1,280, respectively.

New Year's Eve pulled gold up a couple dollars more to $1,282, and by late morning on Jan. 2, the metal was changing hands at a six-month high, near $1,286.

Now that we've seen the rally in gold price continue, here's what I predict for 2019...

Here's What's Next for the Price of Gold in 2019

Despite a small relief rally in the dollar index post-2018, it's looking increasingly like the dollar has started to break down.

price of gold today

Notice the "rounding top" pattern in the DXY, which formed between late October and mid-December. Technically, this suggests a reversal in the dollar rally that started back in mid-April.

That's being confirmed by both the consistently downward trending relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence momentum indicators. What's more, the U.S. dollar index has spent most of the past two weeks below the 50-day moving average - another clue that a new downtrend is becoming entrenched.

As for gold, the picture has recently become dramatically brighter.

gold prices today

We can see it has established a "rounding bottom" pattern between August and October. And since mid-November, the precious metal has blasted higher.

From its early August lows near $1,180, gold is now up over an amazing $100 per ounce, or 9%.

So far, gold has easily broken through my target of $1,280. With gold currently near $1,286, my next target is $1,290. It's hard to believe we're already so close to $1,300.

Any retreat from current levels is likely to be met with buying at the $1,260 level, helping to form a new floor at the 200-day moving average.

I think with momentum indicators becoming a bit stretched, gold could need a little while to break through $1,300. I expect that level will bring with it some overhead resistance, and the gold price will need a few attempts to close above it.

But once that happens, I believe $1,300 will then become a new "floor" for the gold price, establishing a "launch pad" for gold to reach for its previous high last year of $1,360.

Given gold's current strength and the struggles of major indexes, oil, and the dollar, my $1,300 target for gold in Q1 is looking increasingly achievable.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 02 Jan 2019 20:01:10 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2019/01/02/the-price-of-gold-will-keep-rallying-in-2019-heres-my-newest-target/ The Price of Gold Is Forming a Lucrative New Pattern https://moneymorning.com/2018/11/26/the-price-of-gold-is-forming-a-lucrative-new-pattern/ As the price of gold continues to fight to for a breakout above $1,230, we have been getting some clues as to why it dipped below $1,200 recently.

According to the "Commitments of Trader" report compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission two weeks ago, large speculators had increased their bearish position in gold futures by 67%.

gold
Interestingly, those large short positions were likely the result of the U.S. dollar's new highs in response to Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance.

But by last week, Fed Vice-Chair Richard Clarida was already sounding more dovish, saying, "As you move in the range of policy that by some estimates is close to neutral, then with the economy doing well it's appropriate to sort of shift the emphasis toward being more data dependent."

That likely piqued investors' interest in gold as they rationalized a possibly more neutral Fed beyond 2018.

Gold's dip attracted safe-haven buying as well as short covering, causing the metal to bounce back.

And as we head into the final stretch of 2018, gold prices could see another round of supportive buying as investors look toward the uncertainly of 2019.

What's Driving the Price of Gold Right Now

In the first part of last week, the price of gold maintained its recent gains as it consolidated around $1,220.

That was still significant since gold prices bounced back from below $1,200 in the previous week and traders were digesting those gains.

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Maintaining that $1,220 level was made all the more challenging with the U.S. dollar bouncing back and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rallying strongly on Tuesday (Nov. 20) by 80 basis points to 96.8.

Take a look at the DXY's sudden spike on Tuesday...

usd

The DXY weakened as the week went on, trending downward until early Black Friday (Nov. 23), when it hit a low of 96.4, then rallied to within a hair of 97 by late afternoon.

That was enough to dent the gold price. Gold fell rapidly in early Friday morning trading from $1,227 to test just below the $1,220 level after 8 a.m.

Despite the DXY's continued climb through the day, gold held up and eventually ended the holiday week at $1,222.

And the technical indicators I'm looking at show gold is much stronger than many think right now.

Here's what I'm watching, including my latest gold price target...

Why Gold Prices Have More Momentum Than Traders Think

Looking at the DXY on a multi-month basis, it's starting to look like a specific pattern may be emerging.

I've traced out the (blue) neckline, (orange) shoulders, and (green) head. Although it doesn't show in this chart, Friday's price action pulled the DXY up to the 97 level and could be forming the right shoulder if indeed it backs off from there.

usd index

The interesting thing about head and shoulders patterns is that they tend to materialize after a long bullish trend.

If the DXY breaks down below the neckline at 96, look for it to reach for previous support levels at 94.5, then 93.5.

Of course, I'd expect that to do wonders for the gold price.

We now also see from the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence that the dollar appears to have lost upward momentum, as both of these are now trending downward, so it's trending in our direction.

Despite its recent challenges, gold's been building some momentum.

Gold needs to get solidly above $1,240 if it's going to then pull off a meaningful rally, and here we see an ascending triangle pattern that may be starting to form...

gold

Also encouraging is that this pattern is forming a rising trend line while gold prices hold above their 50-day moving average.

If gold can clear $1,240, then my next target would be the 200-day moving average near $1,265, and after that $1,300.

Gold stocks appear to be tracing out the same pattern. Take a look at the upward triangular pattern form in in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX).

gdx

The GDX will need to close solidly above overhead resistance at $20, but after that, my next target will be $21 (near the 200-day moving average) then $22.5.

Despite struggling of late, Scotiabank thinks gold will continue to benefit as risk-off sentiment gets the upper hand. Its analysts think pressure on financial markets will persist while inflation pressures could rise.

Scotiabank said, "Gold has turned more favorable as other markets have started to become more risk-averse. As such, there does seem to be room for more safe-haven demand for gold as money rotates out of equity and bond markets."

I'll keep you updated on this trend next week - and stay tuned for my complete 2019 gold price prediction coming soon.

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Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 26 Nov 2018 18:01:40 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/11/26/the-price-of-gold-is-forming-a-lucrative-new-pattern/ The Price of Gold Just Hit a Major Turning Point https://moneymorning.com/2018/11/19/the-price-of-gold-just-hit-a-major-turning-point/ Just when it looked like the price of gold was going to retest its lows of October and maybe even September, the metal put on a bold rally.

After marking an intraday low of $1,196 on Tuesday, Nov. 13, gold prices took one more day to consolidate near those lows.

Since then, the price of gold has rallied and so far maintained a healthier level near $1,220. The run happened as stocks continue to struggle while the dollar retreats.

Meanwhile, historic extreme positions were recently set by both gold speculators and gold hedgers alike. And these tend to mark big turning points.

price of gold
So with gold recently testing lows last seen at the start of 2017, sentiment has clearly been crushed.

But central banks have been buying aggressively, while gold-backed ETF holders have held steady.

I think most of the weak hands have now sold, setting the stage for an impressive rally over the next few months for gold prices.

Here's How the Price of Gold Is Trending Now

The gold price started this past week with another bout of weakness as the dollar showed its muscle and consolidated high, with the DXY hovering above 97.5.

That pressured stocks and precious metals as investors and traders alike bought the dollar and treasuries for shelter.

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But by midday on Wednesday, some of these positions reversed. Stocks continued lower, as it were until early Thursday. But the DXY finally backed off considerably, losing 50 basis points to test 97. Gold prices would decline steadily all day to close at $1,200.

Wednesday's renewed weakness in the dollar pulled the DXY down below 97 for a good part of the day. That was gold's cue to rally. Gold regained $1,200 by the 8 a.m. New York open. From 12 p.m. until just after 2:00 p.m. on Tuesday, gold powered higher to regain $1,215. Gold would end at $1,211, but its newfound strength was encouraging the bulls.

Here's the DXY's action for last week:

gold prices

On Thursday, stocks put in an early low, then bounced back pretty strongly. Interestingly, the DXY also shot back above 97 where it spent most of the day. And yet neither of these were enough to dent gold, which consolidated around $1,213 most of the day where it finally closed.

To end the week, gold put in another strong performance. The metal treaded tightly to $1,215, but just after 8 a.m., as the DXY peaked near 97 then dropped quickly to 96.5, gold popped to $1,225 before retreating to near $1,222 for the rest of the day.

Now that we've examined the forces behind the price of gold's movement this week, here's what's next for the precious metal...

Here's Where the Price of Gold Is Headed Now

Last week, I suggested the dollar could well be close to topping out.

While the DXY still remains near 16-month highs, its recent run could be running out of steam.

gold prices today

We are already more than 10 years since the DXY bottomed in April 2008. Dollar bulls and bears tend to last anywhere between seven and 10 years, so a renewed bear is a real possibility.

On a near-term technical basis, we're starting to see some negative divergence.

price of gold per ounce

Despite the recent rise in the DXY, both the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence momentum indicators have been trending downward. This suggests the DXY's rise is losing momentum and could soon be headed south.

As for gold, it's starting to act better.

Yes, it lost nearly $40 since reaching $1,235 earlier this month.

gold prices 2018

But its recent low near $1,200 lines up nicely to form a new higher low. And that has held above the rising trendline shown.

We've seen similar action from gold stocks.

2018 gold prices

But the GDX will need to break above resistance around $20 in order to cement a new rally.

Consider that, according to Standard Chartered Bank, gold-backed ETF buying has seen 23 metric tons added in October and 13 metric tons so far in November. That's made for net positive inflows for this year so far.

As well, central banks, especially in Eastern Europe and Asia, have stepped up their buying in a big way.

Couple that with recent extreme bearish gold speculators' positioning, and we could have a recipe for a major rally. Those big short positions will need to be covered, and quickly, once gold rises significantly.

I think that could happen once the metal is solidly back above $1,240.

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Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 19 Nov 2018 16:51:55 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/11/19/the-price-of-gold-just-hit-a-major-turning-point/ Seasonal Strength Is About to Push Gold Prices Higher https://moneymorning.com/2018/11/13/seasonal-strength-is-about-to-push-gold-prices-higher/ A renewed surge in strength for the U.S. dollar sunk gold prices over the past week, but we're about to enter gold's strongest season of the year.

As the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made a renewed run to about 97.50, stocks and commodities suffered the consequences.

gold
It seems the White House is being pressured by big business to finally cut a deal with China, which U.S. President Donald Trump has recently said was near.

That, combined with a weaker pound on Brexit concerns and a weaker euro on Italian crisis worries, have conspired for a dollar rally that has pushed oil and commodities lower.

But the rout in equities may not be over yet as stocks struggle to maintain any gains for the year so far. The Dow plummeted nearly 600 points yesterday (Nov. 12).

Still, as we work through what is gold's strongest seasonal period of the year, we'll have to see if dollar strength will be enough to hold back the metal of kings.

I'll show you exactly why I think the price of gold is positioned to gain over the next two months, even in the face of a strengthening dollar. But first, let's take a look at the gold price action over the last week...

Why Gold Prices Struggled Last Week

Without any question, it was a rough week for gold prices, which couldn't get any traction to push higher.

The November FOMC meeting last week proved hawkish, boosting the dollar and denting gold.

With estimates for the October U.S. CPI to come in at 2.5% year over year, along with a stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index report last week and expected gains in the U.S. retail sales report this week, the dollar is riding high.

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The price of gold headed only lower last week, starting out near $1,230 and ending the week $21 lower, at $1,209.

Meanwhile, the DXY was treading water early in the week, floating steadily around 96.3 through Tuesday (Oct. 6).

It then bottomed early on Wednesday (Oct. 7) around 95.7, then proceeded to climb very steadily from there.

Take a look at how it grew since bottoming on Wednesday...

USD

By Friday (Oct. 9), the DXY was flirting with 97, comfortably reaching that level by late in the day.

And the gold chart was nearly the perfect mirror. By Friday morning, gold prices had sunk to $1,207 before recuperating to close at $1,209.

Then on Monday (Oct. 12), another surge in the DXY pulled the index back up to 97.5, punishing gold as it scraped along, bouncing with great difficulty from the $1,202 level and finally closing at $1,200.

That's understandably made gold bugs fearful we're entering a bear market. But this is simply a short-term aberration thanks to the Fed and the DXY's gains over the last week.

This is just the start of gold's traditionally strongest season, and my gold price forecast based on the data I'm following shows that's just as true this year...

What Seasonal Strength Means for Gold Prices This Year

The DXY just reached a 16-month high, with many wondering just how much is left in the tank.


Recent positive economic data and news have been supporting the dollar and causing it to rally hard.

But observers are now looking ahead to the December FOMC meeting. It's entirely possible that, thanks to last week's hawkish Fed tone, the markets are now fully pricing in a rate hike for December.

If that's the case, we could well see the DXY top out very shortly. Perhaps current levels will prove to be a sort of "double top" near 97.3.

There's no denying that further strength is likely to hit gold prices.

Gold itself has therefore taken a hit.

contract

Recent weakness has negated much of October's strength, pushing gold back below its 50-day moving average at $1,213. We can also see the RSI and MACD have clearly turned lower, suggesting negative momentum in the near term.

More dollar strength could mean a retest of $1,190, or even a bit lower, before a final bottom.

Meanwhile, gold stocks have followed along with a commensurate dip in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX).

GDX

But mean reversion suggests gold's price needs to catch up with where gold actually should be.

Commodities brokerage SP Angel recently said that ETF investors and hedge funds haven't been abandoning gold. "Holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by gold have risen for five straight weeks, the longest stretch in more than a year," SP Angel says.

Wells Fargo said they expect gold to rally into late 2018 and early 2019, even if stocks maintain their strength. The bank's John LaForge, head of Real Asset Strategy, says the brokerage's rolling 12-month target is $1,300. His report also says gold is cheap relative to both stocks and bonds, and could rally even if the U.S. dollar does too.

Gold could remain challenged in the near term, especially if the U.S. dollar maintains its strength or even rises further.

Be prepared for gold to test the $1,190 or even $1,180 level before bottoming. After that, a year-end rally could be in the cards, especially if stocks continue to struggle for a while.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 13 Nov 2018 16:39:09 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/11/13/seasonal-strength-is-about-to-push-gold-prices-higher/ Why Gold Prices Are Gaining Thanks to the Dollar https://moneymorning.com/2018/11/05/why-gold-prices-are-gaining-thanks-to-the-dollar/ Investors already know how important the dollar is to gold prices, and this last week proved just how true that is.

As the greenback soared while stocks struggled, the price of gold fell about $20 per ounce.

But that turned out to be little more than a short-lived Halloween scare as gold quickly bounced to recoup those losses and more.

gold prices
Looking back on October, the S&P 500 lost about 11.5% from its peak while the Nasdaq retreated as much as 14.9%. It was a really tough month for the stock market.

Meanwhile, gold prices and gold stocks gained about 3% last month. Goldman Sachs analysts recently said, "In our view, it represents a rebound in fear-related demand for gold with ETFs beginning to build after several months of declines."

Though the stock market can continue higher for some time, investors are realizing this bull market is closer to its end just as inflation is starting to pick up.

Worries about recession could feed increasing demand for the precious metal, which makes right now an excellent entry point. I'll reveal my gold price target in today's gold price forecast.

But let's take a look at what happened to gold prices last week...

Why the Dollar Weighed on Gold Prices

Monday (Oct. 29) saw an ugly reversal in the Dow. Triple-digit losses mounted as investors worried about a possible peak in earnings and economic fallout from tariffs.

That led to dollar buying, which pushed the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gradually higher through the day to 96.7. Gold prices held up well, starting at $1,230 and ending at $1,228.

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But U.S. President Donald Trump suggested on Tuesday (Oct. 30) that a possible trade deal with China could soon emerge. Weaker-than-expected eurozone GDP, higher-than-expected German inflation, and Merkel's announced departure in 2021 all weighed on the euro, boosting the dollar.

The DXY rallied to end the day at 97, a level not seen since June last year. Clearly, that weighed on gold, but amazingly, the price of gold still managed to close at $1,223.

Wednesday (Oct. 31) saw an intraday high of 97.18 for the DXY as stocks rallied back. As a result, gold saw an intraday low around $1,212 but then reversed and followed both the dollar and stocks higher, closing at $1,217.

Selling in the dollar returned in force on Thursday (Nov. 1) as the DXY shaved off about 80 basis points from the previous close. U.S. weekly jobless claims fell and the ISM Manufacturing Index missed expectations, causing investors to consider a possible pause in rate hikes, hurting the dollar. Gold had a great day, finishing $19 higher at $1,232.

Take a look at the DXY's build during the week, before collapsing on Thursday...

price of gold

On Friday (Nov. 2), U.S. equities sold off from a higher open as fear returned to markets and investors looked to the uncertainty of upcoming midterm elections. The 10-year yield had managed a climb back to 3.2%. Gold held steady, trading flat at $1,232 by late afternoon heading into midterm elections week.

Even though I would have liked to seen gold prices climb higher over the last week, with the volatility in stocks and the DXY, it's still a great sign that gold held its own.

But this week raised a lot of new questions too. Has dollar buying peaked? Will gold continue to act as a safe haven? And will gold stocks benefit from the volatility?

I'll answer those and more, including my latest gold price prediction...

Where Gold Prices Are Heading Next in 2018

The DXY had another strong run-up, peaking higher just north of 97, above its last high near 96.7 in mid-August. But if you take a look at the relative strength index (RSI), which just rolled over 70, it could be a sign the dollar has peaked ahead of the midterm election.

Plus, if Trump does pull off some sort of trade pact with China soon, that could deflate the dollar too, making U.S. exports cheaper and countering recent yuan devaluation.

Take a look at the dollar's trend, especially its RSI...

gold

Gold's dip in the past week was quickly reversed, pulling the metal right back up to its prior trading range. This last pullback may have also helped to establish a new higher low, which would be bullish price action.

As well, we can see a clear upward slope to the highs being set since gold broke out in early October. What's more, the 50-day moving average appears to have bottomed and started to trend higher. Incidentally, that's where the recent pullback found support and turned back higher.

You can see that pattern emerge here...

gold stocks

This is a seasonally strong period for gold, all the way through to end February, with a likely pause from mid- to late December. If gold acts like it has most up years since 2001, we could well see it gain as much as 10% to reach $1,330 by late February.

But in the near term, look for gold to close solidly above $1,240 then $1,260.

As for gold stocks, they too sold off in late October but haven't quite recuperated the way gold has.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX) has a clear ceiling at $20, which it needs to clear. That should lead the way toward a strong rally up to $22.50. Meanwhile, the RSI and moving average convergence divergence have both recently turned higher, while the 50-day moving average also looks to have bottomed...

gold price target

Once the midterms are behind us, we could get renewed dollar weakness. Stocks may resume their climb, which could compete with gold. But I think the metal's seasonal strength this time of year will overcome that and pull gold higher for the next several months.

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Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 05 Nov 2018 17:41:36 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/11/05/why-gold-prices-are-gaining-thanks-to-the-dollar/ Gold Prices Are Forming a Lucrative "Golden Staircase" Pattern  https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/29/gold-prices-are-forming-a-lucrative-golden-staircase-pattern/ What happened in gold prices over the least week is going to become more commonplace.

Early Tuesday morning (Oct. 23), as I began my daily routine, I checked in on gold prices just before 8 a.m.

What I saw shocked me: $1,237.

gold prices
That was the price for an ounce of gold; $15 higher after the metal had ended the previous day at $1,222.

The price of gold hit a three-month peak as stocks slid globally and geopolitics remained high on the list of investors' concerns. The 10-year treasury yield dropped to 3.13%, and the U.S. dollar remained near a two-month high as safety became the order of the day.

Just last week, I said to watch for a break above $1,235 for a possible confirmation that a new gold rally was at hand.

We're almost there now, and I'll show you the latest gold chart pattern to show you exactly why...

Why Last Week Kicked Off a Gold Price Rally

Monday (Oct. 22) was lackluster for gold as equities bounced back strongly and the dollar saw gains.

But Tuesday brought the big move.

After climbing strongly in the early morning hours, gold reached near $1,239 momentarily, just after 8 a.m. Stocks sold off hard, with the Dow dropping almost 500 points, or 2%, as weak earnings and geopolitical tensions weighed on investors' spirits. The EU rejected Italy's proposed budget and asked for a revised draft within three weeks, and Brexit negotiations continued to cause concern.

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On Wednesday (Oct. 24), there was more obvious safe-haven buying as the U.S. dollar jumped again. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made a morning run to test 96.5 before turning back to 96.35.

But equities continued their free fall, with the S&P 500 off 3%, the Dow down 600 points or 2.4%, and the Nasdaq down a whopping 329 points or 4.4%. That market sell-off pushed the S&P 500 into the red for 2018. Once again, gold prices held steady as safe-haven buying dominated, pushing the metal up $3 on the day.

You can see how the DXY slowly grew over the week as stocks slumped...

gold

By Thursday, U.S. equities bounced back, and the dollar jumped on news the European Central Bank left rates unchanged while its president Mario Draghi promised monetary policy would remain "very accommodative." That kept gold prices flat.

To end the week, equities sold off again as the stock rout extended. But the price of gold jumped to $1,240 by late Friday morning (Oct. 26) even as the DXY retreated from an 8 a.m. peak at 96.85 to 96.5, and the 10-year yield dropped to 3.08%.

That jump to $1,240 was short lived as gold retreated, but still managed to close at $1,233.

But I believe last week's gold price performance was great news - and a sign a gold rally is in the works.

Here's my gold price target thanks to the coming rally...

Where Gold Prices Will Rise to as the Rally Gains Steam

Let's look at the dollar's action with a little perspective.

The DXY had a strong week, going from a low of 95.5 late Sunday to a peak of 96.85 on Friday morning. But this happened even as gold rose and remained strong.

gold price

This week's strength pulled the dollar up to 96.5, possibly testing the same high set back in mid-August. It will be interesting to see what happens next. While it could go higher, and there is plenty of safe-haven buying, that could well be its peak, especially if equities finally end their sell-off.

As for gold, it's been building strength since October.

By Friday afternoon, gold had traded above $1,235, my target for possible confirmation of a new rally. But it closed at $1,233 by the end of the day, remaining just shy of my crucial level.

Gold may be starting to establish what I like to call the "Golden Staircase." That's when the price moves up, then consolidates around a particular level, then moves up a step and consolidates at the new higher level.

Notice how the two blue lines I've drawn in appear to be forming that staircase pattern...

gold price rally

Once we see gold rise solidly above $1,235, I'd be looking for $1,260 as the next "step" in the staircase. Right now, both the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence momentum indicators are confirming the move higher, and both have room to rise before becoming overbought.

But even as gold prices gathered momentum, gold stocks struggled last week. You can see how drastic the fall was in the chart of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX) below...

price of gold

But if we compare gold stocks with the S&P 500 over the past month, gold stocks actually outperformed to the tune of about 11.5%. The S&P 500 was down 8% while GDX was up 3.5%, and that was after a pullback. Before that, GDX was up about 9% while the S&P 500 was down 9%.

price for an ounce of gold

So despite the added risk and volatility, gold stocks look like an attractive option for portfolio diversification.

And even with the rising dollar and softer bond yields, gold's been behaving well.

We could well be at the start of a new multi-month leg up in gold with the next target being $1,260.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 29 Oct 2018 18:52:10 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/29/gold-prices-are-forming-a-lucrative-golden-staircase-pattern/ Gold Prices Are Gathering Momentum for a New Rally https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/22/gold-prices-are-gathering-momentum-for-a-new-rally/ Although gold prices consolidated last week, they've formed a new higher level.

The price of gold has traded in a range near $1,200 since mid-August.

But now gold prices are hovering around $1,223, with a new floor possibly around the $1,220 level.

gold prices
That sneaky gain in the gold price came thanks to a confluence of factors.

Geopolitical tensions with Saudi Arabia, trade frictions with China, Italy-EU budget strains, and a downbeat IMF economic outlook all likely supported the rise in gold.

But perhaps even more impressive is gold's rally despite the twin headwinds of a stronger dollar and a higher 10-year bond yield.

These are direct competitors to gold, and both were stronger this week. Gold prices rising along with them is a potential signal that this new strength in the yellow metal could have staying power.

Let's take a look at what moved the gold price last week - and what it means for my latest gold price prediction for November...

Gold Prices Are Quietly Rising

It's been an impressive performance so far from gold over the past week.

The metal has jumped from around $1,200 to $1,223 and traded in a narrow range between $1,220 and $1,232 on an intraday basis.

By midweek, the dollar was rallying, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) up to 95.6 after bottoming on Tuesday (Oct. 16) around 94.8.

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The tensions described above get the credit for the stronger dollar and rising 10-year yield.

You can see the steady rise in the DXY over the last week right here...

price of gold

The rally took the DXY to 96 by late Thursday (Oct. 18). By early Friday (Oct. 19), it finally broke above that level but was unable to maintain it and quickly fell back to 95.7 by week's end.

After the strong sell-off in stocks from early October, stocks did manage to get some relief early in the week. But by Thursday and into Friday, they backed off again as the dollar and bond yields rallied along with gold.

Gold prices rising as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty ratchet up are bullish signs, and that's especially the case in the face of a stronger dollar.

Here's where I see gold prices heading to next...

My November Gold Price Prediction

The dollar had the wind at its back over the last few days, and that's pushed it higher.

Both the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) momentum indicators have turned up from neutral levels and are confirming the dollar's move higher. What's more, the DXY has just managed a higher high (though not by much) above previous resistance.

gold price

Normally this would worry me, as I'd expect it to constrain gold prices. But the metal and its stocks have both been moving higher along with the dollar, so we know gold prices are rising in spite of the dollar.

The dollar is likely also being supported by the rise in bond yields. The 10-year bond yield has broken out and continues to rise.

Shorting bonds at this juncture makes sense, and I believe yields will generally work their way higher over many more years ahead.

You can see how yields are surging above their last ceiling and showing no signs of slowing down.

gold price rally

Now, for gold itself.

Gold has clearly broken out above its previous resistance around $1,210, which I've outlined here...

gold price prediction

Now we need to watch for a break above $1,235 for possible confirmation of a new rally. Right now, we're only a few dollars away, and the momentum indicators, the RSI and MACD, are confirming the current move so far.

As for gold stocks, the story is similar.

We've had a clear break above recent resistance, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX) could consolidate a bit around $20. But it needs to get back above at least $21, which was support going all the way back to March last year.

gold

Momentum does seem to be on the side of gold stocks, and despite a decent run since early September, they do not look overbought.

And finally the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index.

Although it moved sideways most of last week, it did jump to a new higher level on Monday and then maintained it.

gold price prediction for November

We could see a bit of a pause after recent gains, but overall, the technical picture looks good for both gold and gold stocks.

As long as gold remains above its new support of $1,220, I expect it to continue to rise to $1,235 and even higher as it gathers momentum.

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Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 22 Oct 2018 16:29:40 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/22/gold-prices-are-gathering-momentum-for-a-new-rally/ This Gold Price Rally Isn't Slowing Down Anytime Soon https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/15/this-gold-price-rally-isnt-slowing-down-anytime-soon/ The latest gold price rally is finally breaking out like I've been expecting, and it's not slowing down soon.

The price of gold soared $30 higher on Thursday (Oct. 11).

Odds are a short squeeze in the futures market helped power the metal as stocks sold off dramatically. Speculators have been massively short gold, and a substantial move like this forces many to cover their positions.

gold price
Technical buying was likely triggered as gold traded above certain key price levels, spurring even more buying.

But now that we've gotten this substantial jump in the gold price, will it be able to hold, and what should we be looking for next?

I'll tackle that in my latest gold price forecast below, but first let's take a look at what sent gold prices soaring last week...

Why the Price of Gold Rose Last Week

Gold prices plummeted to scrape close to last month's bottom near $1,185. Gold dropped in early Monday (Oct. 8) trading to those low levels as a renewed rally in the dollar weighed once again.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded up to 96 on early Monday before retreating to consolidate near 95.75. Then on Tuesday (Oct. 8) it rallied again, this time to a peak of 96.14 just before 8 a.m., only to retreat once again to around 95.60.

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But that was enough to block any gold strength, and the metal traded sideways.

On Wednesday (Oct. 9) the DXY was unable to hold 95.5, and that allowed gold to push up to $1,194 by the close. That was thanks in part to the stock market's sudden plunge.

The S&P 500 dropped 95 points (3.3%), the Dow lost 830 points (3.15%), ten-year treasuries rose to regain 3.22% yield, and gold saw mild gains, but gold stocks bounced back with the GDX up 1.3%.

Take a look at how the DXY started its slide on Wednesday...

gold

But the fireworks in the gold market showed up Thursday.

Gold enjoyed safe-haven buying in the morning to $1,210 as stock markets suffered a global sell-off. By midafternoon, the Dow was down a further 535 points (2%), the tech heavy Nasdaq was off 100 points (1.3%), and yet gold was up at $1,224.

Take a look at just how drastically the price of gold surged...

gold prices

Investors sought shelter in treasuries as the 10-year yield dropped from 3.22% to 3.15%, while the DXY fell to just above 95, from above 95.7 early on Wednesday. It was a sight to behold, with gold closing solidly above $1,220 at $1,223.60 per ounce.

Not surprisingly, Friday (Oct. 12) brought some profit taking in both gold and gold stocks. By midday, gold prices fell to $1,218.

But gold's response to the stock market sell-off is the encouraging sign we've been waiting for.

Here's what that means for gold prices going forward, including my latest gold price prediction...

Gold Prices Are Trending Upward

First, let's take a look at the DXY in more depth.

Despite the reversal at 95.5, I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet. Still, my sense is that the dollar will continue to weaken soon. Countering that right now, however, is the possibility of continued weakness in the euro, thanks to troubles in Italy and the Chinese yuan, which has just been devalued versus the U.S. dollar.

At least technically, the recent move lower in the DXY is being confirmed by both the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) momentum indicators. A close below 93.5 would likely lead to further weakness, with 92.5 as the next lower target.

You can see how these indicators are beginning to trend down...

gold price forecast

As for gold, we've cleared the first hurdle at $1,210, jumping well above the 50-day moving average. Last week, I said we have to watch for a close above $1,235, which will help confirm a new rally. Meanwhile, the RSI and MACD have a ways to go before becoming overbought.

Take a look at the momentum building in the gold chart below...

gold price prediction

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX) to gold ratio soared this past week, meaning gold stocks rose even faster than gold did. That's another very encouraging sign for gold prices.

Take a look...

price of gold

The GDX chart by itself shows outsized buying on Thursday (notice the big volume bar), pushing the GDX well above its 50-day moving average of $18.90. Plus, the momentum indicators have room to run before becoming overbought.

gold price rally

And finally, corroborating the GDX action is the gold miners' bullish percent index BPGDM. This indicator has just moved up another notch from an ultralow level. This again suggests plenty of likely upside ahead for gold stocks.

gold price

Overall, it's been a highly encouraging week for gold and gold stock investors. But we're not out of the woods yet.

Renewed dollar strength could get in the way. A new gold price close solidly above $1,220 then higher at $1,235 will help cement this possible new rally.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 15 Oct 2018 18:07:50 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/15/this-gold-price-rally-isnt-slowing-down-anytime-soon/ Gold Prices Are Reminding Us of the Metal's Wealth-Building Potential Again https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/08/gold-prices-are-reminding-us-of-the-metals-wealth-building-potential-again/ As we crossed the end of September, the sentiment on gold prices was about as bad as it can get.

The metal of kings had been on a lousy run, with six consecutive months of declines for the first time in 20 years.

Confirming the hate for gold, the World Gold Council reported that gold-backed ETFs saw outflows of 23.7 metric tons in September, equalling some $932 million fleeing those products.

gold prices
But investors are finally getting a reminder of gold's wealth-building potential.

In the past week, gold has demonstrated its safe haven properties, rising with the U.S. dollar as Italian budget issues became a serious concern.

What's more, gold stocks have also shown technical price improvement, with a bullish price pattern that suggests higher levels could be around the corner.

Overall, the price of gold's ongoing consolidation around the $1,200 level bodes well for the metal's next rally.

Here's my breakdown of the gold price movement over the last week, including a new update on my gold price forecast now that the tide is changing...

Why Gold Prices Are Showing Signs of Life Again

Gold took a gut punch on Monday (Oct. 1) as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its rally to 95.3 while investors predict more rate hikes to come from the Fed. Gold traded all the way down to test $1,185 just after 10:30 a.m.

But the biggest driver of gold prices over the past week was news from Europe.

A new anti-establishment government in Italy ruffled feathers last week. Risk aversion drove investors to the safe haven of gold, despite a rallying dollar. An Italian government official said Italy would do better operating with its own currency. The government proposed a budget deficit target at 2.4% of GDP, well above the EU's fiscal limits.

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By midweek, gold traded back up to $1,197 as the dollar and bond yields rallied further, taking the DXY up above 96 late in the day, and the Dow posted a new record close.

You can see that DXY rally right here...

gold

By Thursday (Oct. 4) the stock markets fell again, even as bond yields soared, with the 10-year Treasury note hitting 3.2%, its highest since 2011. Strong economic news caused investors to dump bonds as inflation concerns grew.  Gold peaked near $1,206 around 11 a.m. before selling off down to $1,198.

And by Friday (Oct. 5), the dollar continued to weaken as bond yields stayed high. That eased pressure on gold and the metal gained a few dollars to get back above $1,200.

While gold prices still traded in their narrow range around $1,200, I see cause for optimism in how investors moved toward the yellow metal as instability rose.

Here's what I see next for gold prices in 2018...

Why My Gold Price Prediction Is So Bullish

The DXY saw a small relief rally over the past week and a half. But now I think it's ready to return to downtrend mode.

We'll now need to watch its relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) momentum indicators to see if weakness gains support. Take a look here...

gold price

As for gold, we have seen it continue to form its base around $1,200.

Its late September low around $1,187 looks like a higher low. In fact, I also see a wedge forming, which suggests a move either way soon.

I've highlighted the wedge below so you can see how gold prices are concentrating for a breakout soon...

gold prices in 2018

Overall, the RSI and MACD continue to point upward. I think we need to watch gold for a move higher to around $1,235 for confirmation of a new rally.

And gold stocks have established a textbook inverse head-and-shoulders pattern...

gold price forecast

What we're looking for now is a break above the resistance "neckline" (red line) to confirm this pattern.

That means the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) would need to close above $19.25 to see this play out.

Anecdotally, here are three items I think are worth noting in favor of higher gold.

At the Denver Gold Forum, Ken Hoffman, senior expert at McKinsey Basic Materials Practice said, "When the U.S. is just going to print money endlessly and have deficits endlessly, the gold price really likes that."

There were reports this week that Poland's central bank started buying gold this summer at a rate not seen in two decades, according to the IMF. The National Bank of Poland cited gold's low price and expected higher global inflation as reasons it added 9 metric tons in July and August.

And the recently announced merger between Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Randgold (NASDAQ: GOLD) is indicative of market bottoms rather than market tops. This could well kick off badly need M&A in the sector.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 08 Oct 2018 17:15:08 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/08/gold-prices-are-reminding-us-of-the-metals-wealth-building-potential-again/ Gold Prices Are Following This Textbook Trend https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/01/gold-prices-are-following-this-textbook-trend/ The widely anticipated September Fed rate hike is now behind us.

And the market's reaction, at least so far, has been right out of the textbook.

The dollar is up, and gold prices are down.

gold prices
But we know what happens next...

Gold prices will start to rally.

The dollar is still showing signs of having peaked, and gold continues to suggest it's building a base before rallying.

As it turns out, speculators have their biggest futures bets against gold in 17 years. The last time levels were similar was in 2001, and that's when gold rallied by almost 300% in just over 24 months.

There's no guarantee we're at an interim bottom, but the signs are pointing toward those odds.

Let's take a closer look at what happened to the price of gold last week, plus how the Fed is changing my latest gold price prediction...

Fed Rate Hikes Are Good for Gold Prices

The first half of last week brought more gold consolidation with the yellow metal moving within a tight $9 range.

The gold price action was all at the back end of the week, which is no surprise, given participants were waiting for confirmation of the Fed rate hike.

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They got it.  As expected, gold prices dropped at the expense of the dollar's gain.

Here's what the U.S Dollar Index (DXY) did over the last five trading days...

gold

Little real gains came on Wednesday (Sept. 26) after the Fed hike and press release. Gold prices ended at $1,194, which was the bottom of its recent trading range.

But on Thursday (Sept. 27), the euro dropped, pushing the DXY higher as concern over a possible delay for Italy's budget proposal weighed on the currency. The dollar soared, taking the DXY to 95.3 by mid-morning, a 130-basis-point gain from Tuesday's (Sept. 25) low.

Gold prices were beaten down on Thursday in the wake of euro weakness and a somewhat hawkish outlook from the Fed that rate hikes would continue into 2020.

But traders took dollar profits on Friday (Sept. 28) as the rate hike euphoria wore off. That pushed the DXY back to 95.10 by mid-afternoon, and gold rallied by $10 from $1,183 to $1,193 through the late morning and into the close.

Now, the textbook response from here is to see the start of the next gold price rally.

Here's why - and how high you can expect gold prices to climb to...

My October Gold Price Forecast

With Friday's close, the dollar index is back up to 95, which is about the level of the 50-day moving average.

But notice that the 50-day moving average (the blue line below) has recently dipped lower, suggesting the trend has indeed shifted downward.

price of gold

As I had expected last week, we are getting a bounce in the DXY as it had approached oversold levels. But I still think weakness will soon return.

Tariffs and economic strength have boosted the greenback, but that's only going to help for so long. As other nations wean themselves off pricey American imports, the United States will feel the impact. Trump adamantly wants a weaker dollar and talks it down at every opportunity to help favor U.S. exports.

Here are a few interesting charts for gold and gold stocks.

Given Friday's bounce, which doesn't show on this chart, we could be looking at a double bottom in gold prices if it holds.

gold price

As for gold stocks, they've shown more relative strength than gold itself.

gold price rally

More interesting is recent action in the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM).

gold price prediction

When the index turns up from oversold levels (typically below 30), we get a buy signal. If there is solid follow-through, we could be looking at strong gains in gold stocks over the next couple of months.

If we get a gold rally abetted by renewed dollar weakness, then look for gold to quickly cross the $1,210 level (50-day moving average). I'd then expect a push higher to the $1,230 to $1,240 range.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 01 Oct 2018 18:42:32 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/10/01/gold-prices-are-following-this-textbook-trend/ Gold Prices Are on the Verge of a Breakout Rally https://moneymorning.com/2018/09/24/gold-prices-are-on-the-verge-of-a-breakout-rally/ Gold prices continue to do what I've been expecting, as gold trades just north of $1,200.

But there's a case to be made that the gold price will only move higher...

For anyone wondering what may have triggered the big gold price sell-off since April, the answer may be a combination of U.S. dollar strength and emerging market weakness.

gold prices
Should the dollar resume its overall downward trend, much of that could reverse and in turn provide support for gold.

Today, I'm going to show you that's exactly what's been happening for the price of gold over the last week.

Plus, I'll show you how gold's latest rally is fueling my newest gold price prediction...

How Gold Prices Reacted to the Dollar

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was in a clear downward trend for the past week. The DXY started out very early on Monday (Sept. 17) slightly below 95, but sold off that morning to 94.5.

It would trade around that very level for the next two days.

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That allowed gold prices to rise on Monday from about $1,194 to a morning peak at $1,204. But profit taking kicked in, and the metal dropped back to $1,201 by the 5 p.m. close.

As the dollar moved sideways on Tuesday (Sept. 18) and Wednesday (Sept. 19), so did gold. The gold price bounced from $1,197 to $1,204 over the midweek.

But Thursday (Sept. 20) brought another 50-basis-point drop in the DXY to about 93.90, and that powered the price of gold to a $1,207 close.

Take a look at the DXY's steady decline over the last week...

gold

But on Friday (Sept. 21), buying returned to the U.S. dollar.

That powered the DXY higher from about 93.9 back to 94.25, though still far below highs from earlier in the week. As the proverbial fly in the ointment, these dollar gains pushed gold back to $1,193 by 9 a.m.

It then managed to see a little buying that pulled it back up to $1,199 by late afternoon.

Any clear direction would have to wait for later this week, likely in the wake of the expected Fed rate hike.

And I'm expecting that will support my bullish gold price forecast...

Where Gold Prices Are Heading after the Next Fed Rate Hike

The dollar is finally starting to act the way I've been expecting it to.

As the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence are approaching oversold levels, it would not surprise me to see a small bounce at this point. Anticipation of the Fed rate hike this week could be the support that provides a boost.

You can see these trends, including the support level, here...

price of gold

If the support bounce materializes, I expect it will only be temporary as traders sell the news.

After that, I think weakness will return.

The DXY looks like it's headed lower, and a solid close below 92.5 should feed more selling. This, of course, should do wonders for gold.

Don't be surprised if we first see a near-term decline in gold as the dollar benefits from strength this week. And that would inevitably show up in gold stocks as well.

Though gold is far from overbought, any near-term weakness could easily push it down to retest the recent low around $1,175 once more.

But there's plenty of room to power higher, especially on the back of a resumed dollar downtrend.

Take a look at the bullish trajectory gold is on...

gold price

If you're looking for a reason why gold has seen so much weakness since April, this may be the answer.

Bloomberg reported that Turkey's central bank gold holdings have fallen dramatically since mid-June. The theory is that Turkish and other emerging market banks, saddled with dollar-denominated debt, have been forced to sell gold to shore up liquidity.

Many emerging market currencies began weakening earlier this year, then experienced another leg down starting in late April. It's just a theory, but it's not unreasonable to surmise that Turkey and other emerging market central and commercial banks became anxious to shore up liquidity as their dollar-denominated debt was getting costlier to pay back.

According to the World Gold Council, Turkey is a big player in the precious metals market.  Its central bank gold reserves place it in the top 20 nations worldwide.  Several other emerging markets hold surprisingly large gold reserves.

And given the sell-off of the past few months, many such nations could have been selling their liquid gold assets in order to prevent a liquidity crisis.

Ironically, gold's recent weakness may be telling us just how well it works as crisis insurance.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 24 Sep 2018 17:33:09 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/09/24/gold-prices-are-on-the-verge-of-a-breakout-rally/ Here's What to Expect from the Price of Gold as the FOMC Meeting Looms https://moneymorning.com/2018/09/10/heres-what-to-expect-from-the-price-of-gold-as-the-fomc-meeting-looms/ Although the price of gold struggled through another difficult week, its action suggests some resilience.

Recent price inflation data from the U.S. Commerce Department for July has the indicator finally back at 2%, the Fed's target level.

Gold

Specifically, it's the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index that the Fed pays most attention to.

This has helped peg the CME Group's FedWatch tool for a September rate hike at 99.8% probability.

I believe the market is looking ahead to that, along with the effects of ongoing emerging markets currencies continuing to weaken substantially, which are supporting the U.S. dollar.

Of course, that makes for gold price headwinds. But gold's price action suggests it may have put in a bullish higher low. What's more, speculators have recently pushed their short positions to outsized record levels.

That's a strong contrarian indicator, possibly providing more support for gold's price stabilizing before it rallies higher.

Here's How the Price of Gold Is Trending Now

Gold prices faced a considerable challenge over the past week, as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) found some renewed strength. The DXY didn't rise back to its recent high of 97, but it did make a run up to near 95.75.

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That was a gain of over 100 basis points since its recent bottom on Aug. 29 at 94.60.

The most notable aspect of gold's action this week was on Tuesday, when the metal dropped to $1,190 just after 10 a.m. Naturally, that coincided nearly perfectly with a surge in the DXY that took the index up to 95.68.

That's been the low for the price of gold since then. On dollar weakness early Thursday that then pushed the DXY back down to 95, gold rose to a momentary $1,205 before the dollar strengthened once again.

Here's the DXY for the past trading week:

DXY at 95.36

Renewed greenback strength on Friday came as a U.S. employment report was a bit stronger than expected. That pushed gold below $1,200 once again as the metal fought to hold near the $1,197 level and the shortened trading week drew to a close.

Now, here's my outlook for the price of gold from here...

Here's Where the Price of Gold Goes from Here

We've seen some sporadic strength in the dollar over the past week.

DXY at 95.38

It's possible this will hold up for a while, as I think the market's looking ahead to a likely Fed rate hike later this month, and emerging markets are now officially in a bear market.

But if we look at some of the technicals for the DXY, the story's a bit different.

USD close at (4.99

We can see that the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence momentum indicators are still trending downward, confirming the recent weakness in the DXY since peaking at 97 in mid-August.

It's possible the dollar will hold around 95 for the next few weeks, until the Fed rate is confirmed. After that, it wouldn't be surprising to see the dollar return to a downward trend, supporting gold in the process.

If this scenario plays out, gold could be stuck in a range between $1,190 and $1,210 until then.

Gold close at 1200

In my view, gold's recent price action has a silver lining. Despite bouncing back and forth above and below the $1,200 mark, it has at least stayed in close range to that level.

And there's positive divergence between gold stocks and their technicals.

GDX close at 17.88

The momentum indicators are dramatically oversold, and they are trending higher despite the GDX having just made a lower low.

That could be a mark of capitulation as gold stocks approach prices from early 2016.

As I said above, speculators in gold futures have pushed their total open short position to extreme record high levels. Odds are good we're getting to maximum pessimism, where there's no one left to sell.

Then those shorts will have to be covered, and the resulting squeeze could be powerful.

I think gold could move within the $1,190 - $1,210 range for the next week or two. Then as the Fed rate hike becomes old news and a short squeeze takes hold, gold could quickly pop to $1,225 and beyond.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 10 Sep 2018 16:34:24 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/09/10/heres-what-to-expect-from-the-price-of-gold-as-the-fomc-meeting-looms/ This Signal Could Mean Gold Prices Will Rally into the Fall https://moneymorning.com/2018/09/04/this-signal-could-mean-gold-prices-will-rally-into-the-fall/ By the start of last week, gold prices looked like they were going to pull off a 180-degree reversal.

After testing a daily low of $1,175 in mid-August, gold managed to regain $1,200.

Gold then went on to touch $1,210 and even $1,214, thanks in large part to the U.S. dollar, which was finally showing signs of topping out.

gold prices
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rally to 97 finally petered out.

MarketWatch highlighted the fact that despite ending higher last Friday, the price of gold closed down for the month of August. That meant five consecutive months of lower prices, something gold prices haven't done in over five years.

But with the dollar's momentum reversing and gold entering its strongest season, this could signal the start of the next gold rally we've been waiting for all summer...

How the Dollar Moved Gold Price Last Week

Gold started out last week on a strong note, blasting through the crucial $1,200 level and beyond.

But that Monday (Aug. 27) surge, which carried through from the previous Friday (Aug. 24), would end as soon as early Tuesday (Aug. 28) morning. Until then, the dollar had been selling off as the preliminary U.S.-Mexico trade deal had been announced, relieving some investor anxiety.

By then, the DXY had become a little oversold, and from a low of 94.50, the dollar began a new rally.

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After attempting to push toward 95 on Wednesday and Thursday, the DXY finally managed to reach 95.2 by midday Friday.

Here's a look at the DXY over the last week...

gold

Before that surge, the DXY dropped to 94.60, allowing gold to rise to $1,208 in the early hours of Friday morning. As the dollar rose to its 95.2 peak, it weighed on gold, which dialed back through the morning all the way down to $1,198. But the dollar gave up a little to end Friday around 95.10.

That was just enough to allow gold to regain the all-important psychological threshold of $1,200 to end the week.

Then on Monday (Sept. 3), gold spent most of the morning north of $1,200 - but just barely, as the bull and bears fought it out.

What happens to gold prices next depends largely on whether the dollar's rally has ended or if still has legs.

Next, I'll turn to the technical indicators to forecast gold prices as we head into the fall...

My Latest Gold Price Forecast for the Fall

It's quite possible that the dollar index's rally has run its course.

If you're a dollar bull, then I think the best you can hope for is a new range from 92.5 to 95.

If you're a dollar bear, then maybe we could see the DXY drop to the high 80s.

Either way, I think 95 will now act as overhead resistance providing a "cap" on higher levels.

Take a look at the support levels on the DXY in this chart below...

price of gold

As for gold, it seems as though momentum will favor the upside from here.

As you can see, gold just bounced off a two-year-long resistance level and has plenty of room to run higher...

gold rally

However, there's still some risk of further downside, perhaps to test the December 2016 low of $1,135 if the dollar does manage to muster new strength.

Otherwise, higher seems to be the path of least resistance.

Looking at the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence, gold's momentum does seem to have shifted upward. So far, it's made a couple of higher lows in the last two weeks.

If this pattern continues, my next target is the $1,220 to $1,230 range, then $1,260.

I've highlighted the momentum indicators I'm seeing, including the potential target lines I expect for gold in the chart below.

gold price

And if a global event spooks equity investors, we could even see $1,300 in short order.

Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors recently pointed out that anyone in Venezuela who's owned gold for that past several years is very happy. In a country where the average person lost 24 pounds last year and now 90% live below the poverty line, owning a stable asset like gold may have meant the difference between starving and eating.

As per Frank, "At some point, hyperinflation gets so ludicrously out of control that discussing exchange rates becomes pointless. But as of July 30, an ounce of the yellow metal would have gone for 211 million bolivars - an increase of more than 3.1 million percent from just the beginning of the year."

gold price forecast

As you can see, gold's ability to act as a safe haven in the face of a geopolitical crisis will keep its demand high.

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 04 Sep 2018 19:28:33 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/09/04/this-signal-could-mean-gold-prices-will-rally-into-the-fall/ [CHART] Gold Stocks Soared 136% the Last Time This Happened https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/29/chart-gold-stocks-soared-136-the-last-time-this-happened/

  • This rare market distortion is a prime moneymaking opportunity.
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  • If you want to make serious money - we're talking "retire early" money - in today's markets, you need to do more than simply match the indexes. Even spotting a good company with an innovative new product isn't good enough.

    After all, every other investor on the planet is trying to do the same thing.

    But one way you can get ahead is digging deeper and finding the sort of data, patterns, and forecasts the average investor simply overlooks.

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    How to Double Your Money with Gold Stocks

    Companies producing and selling gold see their profits (and share prices) fluctuate right along with gold prices.

    The relationship is so strong, gold traders have long turned to the gold-to-gold-stocks ratio to spot trends in the gold market.

    And we're currently witnessing a unique moment in this relationship.

    Instead of gold stocks moving with the price of gold, they've actually been falling much further than gold prices.

    Take a look at the relationship between the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEArca: GLD), which tracks the price of gold, and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) in the chart below.

    Gold mining stocks largely tracked gold prices a year ago, but they've trailed substantially since then, and that's a bullish signal for gold stocks...

    gold stocks

    You see, this situation will eventually correct itself, and gold stocks will snap back to their typical behavior mirroring gold prices.

    And for that to happen, gold stocks will have to rocket higher to catch up to gold prices.

    When the divergence between gold and gold stocks last peaked in January 2016, the GDX rocketed 136% higher by August 2016.

    But it gets even better...

    When the GDX last trailed GLD so much, gold prices hit their bottom. That kicked off a gold rally that amplified the gold stocks' rebound.

    That's almost exactly like the scenario we're witnessing today. In fact, Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth thinks gold prices are hitting their bottom right now, meaning a gold rally will kick off soon.

    That will add even more fuel to gold stocks' explosive potential.

    But you don't want to own just any gold stock. Even ETFs are bogged down by the worst stocks in the index.

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    It's a gold producer poised to rocket higher when gold stocks rally back to match gold prices.

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    Why Kinross Gold Corp. Is Our Top Buy

    Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) is one of the best gold mining companies in the world.

    It operates seven different mines in locations including Russia, Canada, and Africa, and it's currently building a new one in South America.

    Even though gold prices slid into a bear market earlier this year - a situation that could be enough to put some gold miners out of business - Kinross is still raking in a massive profit.

    In the second quarter of 2018, right in the middle of gold's slump, Kinross brought in $130 million in profits, and it even upped its operating cash flow to $184.5 million from $179.7 million a year ago.

    For a gold miner to maintain such a substantial profit even during a gold price slump is a sign of strong management, which is one of the reasons we're especially bullish on this company. We know once gold prices rally again Kinross will be printing money.

    In fact, the company has even been able to expand during the slump, a luxury less profitable miners simply don't have. Kinross completed the expansion of its Tasiast mine in Q2, with plans to expand even more once it gets government approval.

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    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 29 Aug 2018 16:05:19 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/29/chart-gold-stocks-soared-136-the-last-time-this-happened/ Gold Prices Are Rallying Again – Here's How High They'll Go https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/27/gold-prices-are-rallying-again-heres-how-high-theyll-go/ Gold prices are finally sending us some good signs, and I think the gold rally we're witnessing could turn up the gas even sooner.

    After hitting a low near $1,170 in mid-August, gold prices bounced back up, touching as high as $1,202 intraday as the U.S. dollar retreated after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's rate hike plans.

    GOLD BAR

    Plus, worries about Trump's connections to Cohen and Manafort's legal troubles drove investors into gold.

    But recent Fed minutes cemented expectations of a September rate hike.

    That, along with the U.S.-China tariffs that just kicked in, boosted the greenback, and the price of gold retreated, leading to doubt that gold was finally done with its multi-month correction.

    In my view, the dollar has a lot further to fall.

    And that prospect is driving my latest gold price prediction to be a very bullish one...

    How the Gold Price Rally Kicked Into Gear

    After hitting a fleeting momentary low of $1,165 at midnight on Aug. 16, gold powered higher through Wednesday morning (Aug. 22).

    That's when the yellow metal briefly touched $1,202, as the dollar was in full retreat and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded just below the 95-point level. The dollar index was pressured as news of legal troubles for both Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort (and Trump's links to them) were weighed by traders.

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    As a result, gold simultaneously benefited from safe-haven buying as impeachment calls grew louder. The DXY later consolidated around 95.10 while gold prices pulled back to $1,195.

    Once the Fed minutes were released on Wednesday, the DXY mounted a small, renewed rally.

    Here's how the DXY action looked over the past week...

    DXY GRAPH

    On Friday (Aug. 24) morning, spot gold prices began climbing in anticipation of Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.

    Although Powell reiterated steady rate hikes were the best path forward, he downplayed the chances of economic overheating.

    Gold was then up by $17 over Thursday's close, reaching $1,202 as the DXY dropped back to 95.10.

    And this even though Powell said he was prepared to do "whatever it takes" if inflation looks like it's getting out of control.  At midday, gold was up nearly $23, trading at $1,207.

    We're still in the earliest stages of the latest gold price rally, but I'm optimistic about where gold is heading next.

    In fact, what I'm seeing from technical indicators has me even more bullish.

    Here's what's behind my latest gold price forecast for September 2018...

    Where Gold Prices Are Heading in September

    As usual, I'm paying careful attention to the dollar.

    We can see very clearly the sudden recent run-up looks like a temporary blip to 97.  At the time of writing, the DXY is back at 94.73, and I think it's headed lower.

    Take a look at its trajectory over the last year...

    USD GRAPH

    Here's why I expect it to keep dropping, at least for now...

    A strong dollar is not good for Trump, and it's not good for U.S. exporters/multinationals. Plus, Trump's budget is well on its way to $1 trillion in annual deficits.

    That's why Trump's doing what he can to talk down the dollar, like criticizing the Fed for raising rates. Even with Powell confirming a steady pace of hikes in recent minutes and at Jackson Hole, the dollar has lost 200 basis points in the last 10 days, so Trump's war of words is having some effect.

    If the DXY does indeed head lower, look for it to perhaps trade between 92 and 95 but eventually to head into the 80s.

    As for gold, the action on Friday was impressive...

    GOLD GRAPH

    By midday, spot gold had reached $1,208 on dollar weakness.

    Consider that based on the latest COT report, large speculators had positioned themselves net short gold.  This was the first instance since December 2001, nearly 17 years ago.

    In 2001, gold was beginning a decade-long six-fold return.

    If strength follows through, gold's next target would be the $1,220-$1,230 range, then $1,260.

    It's still very early days in gold's rebound from its recent low near $1,165. If a risk-on attitude returns to stocks, gold could well retreat once again.

    But the solid move above $1,200 and the strong chance of a major short squeeze here could be a signal that strength is back for gold.

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    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 27 Aug 2018 18:32:30 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/27/gold-prices-are-rallying-again-heres-how-high-theyll-go/ These "Bad News Bears" Could Be Hinting at a Gold Bottom https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/22/these-bad-news-bears-could-be-hinting-at-a-gold-bottom/ Show me the gold market of the last few months, and I'll show you an asset that has become almost universally despised.

    Since April, gold has lost more than $140 per ounce, and is now trading near a major long-term support level.

    Some of the world's largest fund managers have given up on gold, having watched asset levels deteriorate by nearly 60%. After two years, even Wall Street analysts are downgrading major gold miners to "Hold" status.

    Gold ETFs - on a global basis - have been unable to stem outflows for the past two months. Sentiment is so low that asset managers are establishing record net short positions in gold futures.

    And, in what seems like a race to be the most pessimistic, some analysts are even calling for sub-$1,000 gold.

    My experience tells me, when the average investor wants a 10-foot pole just to come near an asset, and when so many bears come out in force, we're getting close to a bottom.

    Taken individually, all the bad news items on gold suggest it's an investment that's headed lower or, at best, sideways for some time.

    But as a whole, the negative macro view on gold provides for a great contrarian signal, suggesting gold may be nearly done falling.

    Let's examine in more detail each of the "bad news bears" I've mentioned above, and I think you'll come to the same conclusion I have.

    The Metal Is Officially in Correction Territory

    Gold's sell-off since mid-April has led to a drop of more than $142, pushing gold into a textbook correction.

    gold bottom

    The long-term support line for gold over the last 10 years is shown in the above chart.

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    After the multi-year decline from $1,900 in 2011, gold still managed to stay above support when it finally ended its 4.5-year correction. Its December 2015 low of $1,050 managed to hold above the rising support line.

    Today, it's hovering below $1,200 - close to, but still above, key support. It would need to fall below around $1,180 and break down further to get into a dangerous technical price zone.

    So far, so good.

    Negative Sentiment Has Reached an Extreme

    Just recently, the world's largest mutual fund company, The Vanguard Group, has decided to ax its precious metals fund.

    Back in 2011, the Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (MUTF: VGPMX) held nearly $6 billion in assets. Today, the fund's assets have fallen by almost two thirds through a combination of declining stock prices and redemptions.

    So management has decided to rename it the Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund, restructure it, and broaden its mandate to include other sectors like telecom and utilities.

    Essentially, Vanguard no longer believes in precious metals after seven years of challenging prices. This is a great contrarian sign, pointing to the fact that virtually everyone who wanted to sell has already sold. It's a potential signal that negative sentiment has reached an extreme.

    In 2001, Vanguard dropped the word 'gold' from its Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals Fund.

    And you know what happened to gold prices after that? A 10-year, 600% rally.

    Another classic example: The latest blunder from research firm Jefferies.

    The company just moved the world's largest public gold miner, Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) from "Buy" to "Hold."

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    Yet Jefferies waited two years and watched while Barrick's share price got clobbered.

    And now that Barrick's market cap has been cut in half, Jefferies has finally come around and decided to downgrade the company.

    After such a dismal performance from the world's largest gold producer, wouldn't it make sense to consider its shares more attractive, rather than less, and deserving a "Buy" rating instead?

    As you can see, Wall Street is just following the crowds...

    There Are Even More Contrarian Signals

    Outflows from gold-backed ETFs have been considerable for the past three months.

    In June alone they sold off over 50 tonnes in gold. That continued in July with another 39 tonnes of gold sold by ETFs.

    Lower gold prices had a lot to do with that selling, as gold prices have fallen by nearly 12% since April. That has crushed sentiment to a point where, odds are, most of the gold selling has already taken place.

    According to the World Gold Council, gold demand has remained soft to the point where H1 total demand is the weakest since 2009.

    Additionally, another great contrarian signal comes from Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, especially at extremes.

    The latest COT report shows that large speculators and money managers are the most bearish they have been in decades.

    Large speculators currently hold their second-lowest net long gold futures position in years.  Needless to say, they're not very bullish. The last time they held a smaller net long position was in December 2015. It just so happens that's when gold bottomed at $1,050 per ounce after 4.5 years of declining.

    And money managers now hold their biggest net-short positions ever, larger even than when they last did in December 2015.

    Speculative gold futures holdings, after falling for three weeks straight, are now at their lowest bullish stance since Jan. 5, 2016. That's when a short squeeze rapidly forced shorts to cover, sending gold up $100 in just two weeks.

    So all this negative action has some pundits calling for much lower gold prices.

    John Kosar, Chief Market Strategist at Asbury Research, recently said gold had resumed its long-term downward trend once it closed below $1,257.

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    Kosar is bearish on gold as he feels it's stuck with downward momentum. Citing ETF outflows, he says they act as "trend fuel," suggesting a lack of bullish conviction.

    In that I agree, as ETF investors have been selling wholesale. But that's looking in the rear-view mirror.

    Still, Kosar thinks gold could test $1,100 or even break the $1,000 level before finally hitting bottom.

    Now of course it's impossible to know exactly what will come next, but that's exactly the sort of dramatically bearish call that emerges near a bottom in sentiment.

    Sentiment Is Negative - Perfect for This Gold Play

    So looking at these factors as a group, it's easy to see how sentiment has turned so massively negative.

    That's why it makes sense to dip your toe in the water now, and take at least a small position in this space.

    To do this, I like the Gamco Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (NYSE: GGN). The fund invests in gold, silver, and energy-producing companies while being managed by the Gabelli family of mutual and closed-end funds.

    More than half the fund's allocated holdings are in the metals and mining sector, and boasts total net assets of $778 million. Top 10 holdings include some of the biggest gold and silver producers, like Randgold Resources Ltd. (Nasdaq: GOLD), Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM), Fresnillo Plc. (LON: FRES), Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX: NCM.AX), and Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE: AGI), as well as standout gold royalty companies like Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD) and Franco-Nevada Corp. (NYSE: FNV).

    The fund's main objective is to provide a high level of current income, and its secondary objective is to provide capital appreciation. The strategy used by the fund to generate income is to write covered call options on its underlying securities.

    And they've been doing a great job at it. GGN generates a consistent 11.8% yield at the current share price of $5.07. Owning GGN provides investors with precious metals exposure and a great yield while they wait for the next rally.

    Remember, there are all kinds of reasons to be down on gold. And that's exactly why its bottom could well be in.

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    Follow Money Morning on FacebookTwitter, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 22 Aug 2018 17:33:52 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/22/these-bad-news-bears-could-be-hinting-at-a-gold-bottom/ Why the Gold Price Correction Is Setting the Stage for the Next Rally https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/20/why-the-gold-price-correction-is-setting-the-stage-for-the-next-rally/ The gold price correction we're witnessing has investors wondering if the precious metal is still relevant in today's world.

    It's little wonder, with the metal recently marking its largest weekly drop in over a year and closing at its lowest price in over a year and a half.

    gold price correction
    Since April, its seems gold prices only know one direction: down.

    The Turkey currency crisis sparked fears of contagion and of spreading to other emerging markets, pushing the U.S. Dollar index to a 14-month high.

    Of course, that has the bears mauling and normally steadfast gold owners now shivering in doubt, as gold has given back 11% so far this year.

    It's totally possible that gold has lower to go before finding its final bottom.

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    But the gold sell-off has potentially washed away nearly all the weak hands, setting the stage for, if nothing else, a healthy relief rally.

    I'll break down the potential for a rally in my latest gold price prediction in just a bit, but let's look at what led to last week's slide for the price of gold...

    Why Gold Prices Fell to a 2018 Low

    Early in the week, it became clearer that gold wasn't turning into the safe haven asset we all thought it would.

    It opened on Monday (Aug. 13) at $1,205 and by the close had fallen decidedly below the psychological threshold of $1,200 to $1,193.

    With momentum decidedly on the dollar's side, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rallied on concerns about Turkey as investors sought shelter in America's currency. By Wednesday (Aug. 15), the dollar index had momentarily flirted with 97, a level it hasn't seen since June last year.

    Here's what the dollar index has done over the past trading week...

    US Dollar Index

    By late Wednesday, as gold was trading in Hong Kong, the priced momentarily dipped all the way to near $1,160 before rapidly recovering to $1,173. That $1,160 has marked the lowest point so far in this correction.

    The dollar then started losing some momentum from its Wednesday peak. It managed to hold around 96.6 for most of Thursday (Aug. 16), but then waned as stocks powered higher on the prospects of U.S.--China trade talks.

    As the week ended, the dollar index softened even further, touching as low as 96.10. That helped gold rally from its early morning lows around $1,174 to reach $1,182 by late afternoon on Friday (Aug. 17).

    But there is a silver lining to the gold price correction.

    Once the weak money is flushed out of the gold market, there will be a stronger base to fuel a new gold bull market.

    My gold price forecast outlines how that will happen...

    Where the Price of Gold Is Heading Next

    The dollar's rise appears almost exclusively responsible for gold's woes.

    Take a look at the DXY over the last two years, and you can see the dollar abruptly begin a turnaround this spring, just as gold prices began their slide.

    US Dollar Chart

    But the big jump in the DXY this week was a reaction to Turkey's currency crisis and concerns over contagion. It's very possible that we'll see those concerns diminish in the near term. The dollar's retreat on Thursday and Friday suggests that could be the case.

    The sudden rally in the DXY pushed it toward overbought conditions. That could continue for a while, but the relative strength index (RSI) is now above 70, and the DXY is extended above its 50-day moving average.

    That's pushed gold to bottom-barrel prices. No matter how you cut it, this is a dismal-looking chart for gold.

    gold

    We need to go all the way back to January 2017 to see gold around the $1,180 level, which may actually provide support. If not, gold's next target lower would be around $1,130.

    As for gold stocks - well, this is what capitulation tends to look like.

    gold prices

    The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX) suffered a 13% drop in just eight days by Thursday's low and a 20% drop since July 10. That pushed the RSI down to a dramatically low 11 on Aug. 16 before a decent bounce back on Friday, along with gold.

    At this point, I think we could get a decent relief rally in gold prices, possibly taking them to $1,220 or even $1,230.

    Gold will bounce back in U.S. dollars, and indeed, it may have just started to.

    As for gold's relevance, it's easy to start questioning it when sentiment is this bad thanks to a parabolic sell-off. But here's some food for thought.

    Both Turkey and to some extent Iran have been dealing with severe currency crises recently. Their currencies have been devastated by inflation.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 20 Aug 2018 18:27:46 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/20/why-the-gold-price-correction-is-setting-the-stage-for-the-next-rally/ Turkey's Currency Crisis Is Just the Catalyst Gold Prices Need https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/13/turkeys-currency-crisis-is-just-the-catalyst-gold-prices-need/ A good old-fashioned currency crisis is brewing, and it may be the catalyst gold prices need to return to bullish mode.

    Turkey is mired in a currency crisis with international implications.

    The Turkish lira dropped 15% against the U.S. dollar and is down 40% year to date.

    gold prices
    Recently re-elected President Erdogan is telling his citizens to sell their dollars, euros, and even gold to buy Turkish lira in an effort to help prop it up.

    The European Central Bank is saying it's concerned about Turkey's central bank's independence.

    Lira weakness drove U.S. President Donald Trump to double U.S. tariffs on some Turkish goods, as a Turkish delegation in Washington discussed multiple issues of concern to both sides.

    After re-testing a low near $1,200, the price of gold has bounced back as traders look for a fresh catalyst.

    And the gold price action on Friday (Aug. 10) might have given them their answer.

    Let's take a look at what happened, and then I'll show you my latest gold price prediction...

    How Gold Prices Responded to Turkey's Crisis

    Gold's start to last week was a rough one, as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) popped to 95.5 early Monday (Aug. 6) before backing down to about 95.35 through the afternoon.

    That pushed gold prices down to $1,208, finally settling at $1,207 after an early bounce to $1,210.

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    But after testing its lower support of 95, the DXY climbed later in the day to close at 95.60. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose only 0.2% in July, suggesting a lack of inflation momentum.

    Until then, the price of gold traded in a fairly narrow range (between $1,207 and $1,215) from Monday to Thursday (Aug. 9), ending Thursday at $1,212.

    Then in the early Friday morning hours, gold prices dropped back again to $1,207 as the dollar index exploded from 95.6 to rise above 96. News of Turkey's lira plunge and the risk of European contagion rocked markets globally.

    Take a look at the overnight surge of the DXY on Friday...

    gold

    But then something impressive happened...

    Gold reversed and soared within hours to $1,216 around 10 a.m.

    By 2 p.m., the DXY was up at 96.4, and gold had backed off to $1,211. This was impressive because earlier in the week, gold averaged about $1,211, while the DXY averaged around 95.4.

    Gold's resilience in the face of a rallying dollar suggests it's starting to act once again as the safe haven it's known to be.

    And that's just the fuel we needed for my latest gold price forecast...

    My Gold Price Forecast as the Currency Crisis Heats Up

    The dollar is climbing thanks to the currency crisis in Turkey and fears of contagion in Europe. That's because Spanish, Italian, and French banks have significant exposure to Turkey.

    Those concerns weighed on the euro, which sent the dollar soaring.

    gold price

    The key takeaway here is that despite the dollar exploding to the upside, gold did not tank, and instead held its own. That is impressive - and suggests it's benefiting from at least some safe-haven buying.

    What the dollar will do next is anybody's guess. My view is this blip is likely to subside unless there's a big meltdown in Turkey.

    As for gold itself, it does seem to be stuck in a trading rut.

    Last week, I pointed out how there has been divergence between the gold price and its momentum indicators.

    That has continued this week, with the moving average convergence divergence and relative strength index (RSI) both continuing to trend higher while gold searches for a bottom.

    I've outlined the divergence in the chart below...

    price of gold

    Meanwhile, gold stocks have dropped below long-term support. For the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX), that level was $21 per share.

    I've indicated the support levels here...

    gold price action

    Now, the next support is around $20.50, then around $19, which I also highlighted.

    But notice that the RSI is down at 31.45. While not yet below 30, even the massive rally last December started around this level.

    And another thing...

    The gold-stocks-to-gold ratio has weakened lately as well.

    gold price prediction

    But it remains well above its April lows, just as gold was starting to sell off.

    Gold stocks tend to lead the metal higher. And despite their recent weakness, their relative strength could be a sign the bottom in gold is near.

    As gold has held up exceedingly well on Friday in the face of a simultaneous rally in the dollar, it looks like its safe-haven role may be coming back.

    Perhaps the Turkish crisis will be the spark we're waiting for.

    If gold can bottom here and benefit further from renewed buying and even short covering, look for gold to target $1,225. A close above that level could quickly bring it to $1,233, then $1,245.

    I have said several times that we could at some point see both gold and the dollar rise in tandem. Friday's action may be the start of that trend.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 13 Aug 2018 20:21:36 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/08/13/turkeys-currency-crisis-is-just-the-catalyst-gold-prices-need/ This Signal Could Mean a Bullish Future for Gold Prices https://moneymorning.com/2018/07/30/this-signal-could-mean-a-bullish-future-for-gold-prices/ After a harrowing week for gold, gold prices still sit right at the edge of correction territory.

    Strong tech stock earnings early in the week were then followed by positive U.S.--EU tariff news and strong economic numbers.

    All of this pushed and pulled on the dollar, which moved the price of gold right alongside it.

    gold bars
    That kept the metal in a range between $1,218 and $1,233 as the bulls and bears fought it out.

    There are several reasons the dollar may be done rising for awhile, and that should help gold.

    But a contrarian signal from the futures market may be even more telling - and could cause gold to explode higher in the weeks and months ahead.

    Let's look at recent gold price action and then delve into this a bit further...

    Why Last Week Could Be a Turning Point for Gold Prices

    Gold started out on a high note last week, opening on Monday (July 23) at $1,231, then falling until early Tuesday (July 24) morning as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) peaked at 94.8.

    Gold followed riskier assets a bit higher on Tuesday, with stocks popping after good earnings from Alphabet Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOGL), while the dollar index backed down to 94.45 before closing near 94.60.

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    On Wednesday (July 25), news emerged that the European Union was preparing $20 billion in tariffs, denting the dollar and sending the DXY to 94.2 by the close.

    But stocks also rallied on the announcement that the United States and EU would work together toward zero tariffs. This helped gold rally back by $8 and close at $1,232.

    Here's the DXY action of the past week...

    US Dollar Index
    Those gold gains evaporated on Thursday (July 26) as the markets shot higher on looser risk appetites.

    Early on Friday (July 27) morning before strong GDP growth numbers came in at a healthy 4.1%, gold dipped to $1,218.

    But consensus was slightly higher at 4.2%, so the dollar index retreated to 94.65, allowing gold to return to the $1,223 level.

    I think this might finally be the end of the DXY's pull on gold prices, and the indicator I'm following is making my latest gold price forecast especially bullish...

    What This Indicator Means for My Gold Price Prediction

    Despite the strong Q2 U.S. GDP numbers, expectations of considerably higher levels actually drove buyers to bid the greenback higher. We can see that action at work on Thursday afternoon.

    But a sobering comment from CIBC World Markets' senior economist Avery Shenfeld should not be ignored. He said, "Growth flowered in the spring, but there were plenty of reasons to think that the U.S. economy can't sustain anywhere near that pace head... Overall, these are definitely big numbers, but not unexpectedly so, and should not alter views on the Fed or the second half outlook much."

    In other words, the dollar may have finally peaked and be ready to trend lower.

    We know from the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) that momentum has been waning for the past two months, and this as the DXY has pushed up against overhead resistance at 95.5. Take a look...

    US Dollar Index Graph
    Looking at gold from the perspective of the last two years is disheartening for bulls.

    We've seen it fall back from $1,360 to $1,220 and currently hold near that level. The action in the RSI and MACD momentum indicators are encouraging. Both are low and appear to be exhibiting bottoming action.

    I've put that in a chart for you here...

    Gold Graph
    But the futures market has some encouraging news.

    Shorting by gold futures speculators has just reached near-record levels. That helps explain gold's three-month cascade.

    But it's also a great contrarian signal since those shorts will need to be covered by buying.

    This suggests gold may have seen its bottom and could explode higher from here. If that happens, look for $1,270 in short order, perhaps followed by a top of $1,300 by late this summer.

    As for gold stocks, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX) has retreated along with gold, especially since early July.

    We can also see that it has been testing its previous low of $21.25 touched back in December and again in March. I've marked the previous lows in the chart below...

    GDX Graph
    If GDX can establish a higher low and then turn higher along with gold, look for GDX to retake the $22.25 level, then perhaps $23 on a second leg higher.

    So while all the technical and sentiment indicators are pointing to a possible bottom in gold and gold stocks, some interesting fundamental news is worth considering, too.

    This week, the China Gold Association reported that in Q1, China produced just 190.28 metric tons of gold, or 7.9% less than the first half of 2017. And this comes on the heels of a 6% annual decline last year over 2016.

    The government's more stringent environmental rules are being blamed. And yet China's output is worth watching closely, as that nation just happens to be the world's top gold producer at 440 metric tons in 2017, with Australia a distant second at 300 metric tons.

    As demand continues strong, especially from Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, weakening supply is likely to help bolster higher prices.

    Public Law 92-313 Creates $11.1 Billion Cash Bonanza

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 30 Jul 2018 21:37:00 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/07/30/this-signal-could-mean-a-bullish-future-for-gold-prices/ The Price of Gold Has Bottomed and We Now Expect a Strong Rally https://moneymorning.com/2018/07/09/the-price-of-gold-has-bottomed-and-we-now-expect-a-strong-rally/ Gold's strong negative sentiment may have finally run its course.

    Going back to early April, the price of gold has lost a total of $110. The relentless selling pressure lasted close to three months.

    A counter-cyclical rally in the U.S. dollar, leading to a rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury, attracted safe-haven money to cash over gold.

    But the dollar's rally also looks to have run its course. In the past week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has given back over 100 basis points.  The 10-year Treasury yield is also 28 basis points lower than its peak in mid May.

    And the release of June U.S. Federal Reserve minutes on Thursday was revealing. Some Fed officials voiced concerns that more rate hikes could cause the yield curve to invert and that if trade wars take hold, they'd want to be more accommodating.

    Gold
    Trade threats appear to be the prime concern. So now the certainty of two more rate hikes this year has come into question. That helped cause the dollar to sell off, removing a considerable speed bump in the way of gold's rise.

    Now it looks like we've hit gold's bottom, and momentum has shifted positive. With a higher seasonal trend on its side, we could see gold pop and quickly regain its highs of this year.

    Given how gold stocks are reacting, we have another indicator of a possible run-up from here.

    Before I show you my newest gold price forecast, here's how the metal is trending...

    How the Price of Gold Is Trending Now

    Gold just kept trending lower as the last trading week started. It opened on Monday, July 2, at $1,249 and sold off into dollar strength, which took the DXY all the way up to 95.10. Gold touched $1,240 before closing at $1,242.

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    Then in the early morning hours of July 3, gold touched an intraday low of $1,238 before reversing. It hasn't looked back since. The precious metal then rallied strongly to a $1,256 peak at midday, likely helped by short covering, then reversed slightly to close at $1,252.

    After touching a high of $1,260 early on July 4, gold dialed back to about $1,256. The $1,251 level would only be tested on Thursday morning as the markets anticipated the release of the Fed's June meeting minutes.

    Here's the DXY's action of the past week:

    U.S. dollar index

    Gold's dip ahead of the Fed minutes was short-lived. It touched $1,251 then rallied to close at $1,257, likely encouraged by Fed members' reticence toward future rate hikes, caused by concerns about trade wars.

    And as we entered Friday, strong jobs numbers lifted stocks as the DXY drifted sideways, down at 94 most of the day. Gold bounced in a healthy range between $1,253 and $1,256, hovering at $1,255 by late afternoon.

    Now that gold prices have appeared to bottom out, here's where I see them heading...

    Here's My Newest Gold Price Target

    The dollar's recent weakness could be a sign of a reversal in trend.

    USD Index Cash settle

    The DXY's rise of the past month has come with falling momentum as shown by the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD). This suggests the dollar's rise could be over after a peak at 95. The next target lower would be 92, and it could even drop to 88 if weakness persists.

    As for gold itself, the recent drop to $1,240 looks very much like a double bottom, matching the low of last December.

    Gold CME

    The recent reversal shows negative sentiment could now be exhausted. Note how the RSI popped back above 30 after about a week spent below.

    Gold

    The MACD has also just ticked higher, and gold's reversal was accompanied by strong volumes.

    Now let's look at how gold stocks have acted.

    Gold Miners

    Gold stocks bottomed on June 27, nearly a full week before gold itself. The GDX then quickly regained its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Its next target is to close and hold above $23, which should help trigger the next leg higher.

    And looking at the gold-to-gold-stock ratio, we see a big surge higher, with the equities advancing strongly.

    Gold Stocks

    They may even be a little overbought right now, but sentiment has been so weak we could see this persist for a while yet.

    I think gold's ready to rally to about $1,300 over the summer, with a strong chance of retaking $1,400 by year's end.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 09 Jul 2018 15:45:01 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/07/09/the-price-of-gold-has-bottomed-and-we-now-expect-a-strong-rally/ Gold Prices Are Too Cheap Now, Creating One of the Best Buying Opportunities on the Market https://moneymorning.com/2018/07/02/gold-prices-are-too-cheap-now-creating-one-of-the-best-buying-opportunities-on-the-market/ Gold prices are nearing a six-month low, the culmination of a downtrend kicked off by the latest Fed rate hike on June 13, but that's creating the best buying opportunity of any asset class right now...

    That's when the U.S. dollar began to rally, in part thanks to higher rates, but also because of a weaker euro.

    In the last two weeks, gold has only enjoyed one up day, the result of historic selling pressure.

    gold gar
    We can search high and low, and we'll find plenty of reasons why the price of gold is dropping. But the fact remains that it's still in a long-term bull market, and it has just become dramatically oversold.

    That doesn't mean it will turn tomorrow and start rallying, but the risk associated with buying now is low.

    In fact, I'd challenge anyone to find another sector that is currently more undervalued.

    Gold's sell-off since mid-June is unwarranted. Short- and even medium-term vagaries shouldn't distract from the bigger picture.

    The precious metal remains a natural hedge and all-around safe haven. And for now, it remains abnormally cheap.

    I simply don't expect gold prices to remain this cheap for long...

    Why Gold Prices Continued to Fall Last Week

    Gold spent last week doing pretty much the same thing it did the week before.

    It headed south, all the way down from $1,269 to $1,247. That was a drop of $22, or 1.7%, in just four days, before a possible reversal started to emerge.

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    Sentiment went from lousy to downright awful as the week wore on. The rally in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also rubbed salt into gold's wounds.

    Take a look at how the DXY rallied on Wednesday (June 27)...

    U.S. Dollar Index

    By Thursday (June 28) gold touched an intraday low of $1,246.60 before closing at $1,248.

    But a turnaround was forming...

    That same day, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX) ended higher, even rallying into the close, even though gold prices ended lower than their open of $1,252.

    But on Friday, something impressive happened. The DXY retreated nearly 100 basis points from its early Thursday highs near 95.5. By midday, gold was a bit higher, trading near $1,254. Yet the GDX had rallied impressively, gaining over 2% on strong buying by early afternoon.

    Later in the trading day, gold was holding on to $1,252, potentially having seen an interim bottom the previous day.

    Here's what that means for my latest gold price target for July...

    My Gold Price Prediction for July

    Before we get to my gold price target, we need to take a look at a few technical indicators.

    First, let's examine what the dollar index has been up to.

    DXY

    The DXY has been back in rally mode, pressuring gold downward. But it's back near overbought status, and this rally could well have run its course.

    As for gold, the selloff has been brutal, and sentiment has reached outright disgust.

    Gold Value Chart

    Of course, it's possible gold needs to work its way even lower, with the next target near $1,240.

    But technically, there's possible support at $1,250. It's already become oversold based on the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence, which are both lower than at any point in the last year and a half.

    So technically, I think gold is setting up to reverse and rally.

    In a recent report from Sentiment Trader, we know that going back to 1975, when gold had only one up day in two weeks, it tended to rise about 7% over the next three months.

    Looking at the action of GDX in the past three months, amazingly, it has held up much better than gold, gaining 1.5% while the metal lost 6%. That tells us investors see value in gold stocks, and the strong rebound of the last couple of days demonstrates that.

    VanEck Vectors Gold Miners

    And finally, look at the gold-stocks-to-gold ratio.

    GDX

    Notice the surge in the ratio in the last two trading days, and notice also that it happened on higher than normal volume.

    Gold does tend to make a distinct seasonal low before rallying over the next three months. I think that could lead gold to regain $1,300 by the end of summer.

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    The price of gold tends to move dramatically before and after the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The Fed is expected to hike rates during this week's FOMC meeting, with experts giving a rate hike a 91.3% probability, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

    Gold Prices
    Plus, the highly anticipated U.S.--North Korea summit is tonight (June 11), just as U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified the trade wars with Canada and the European Union. That makes for all the ingredients we need for higher gold prices.

    Throw in a weakening dollar, and gold prices could explode even higher.

    Right now, gold's been trading in a narrow range, between $1,290 and $1,305, for three weeks.  Behind the scenes though, upward momentum has been building even if sentiment has remained weak.

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    Ever since ending its five-year bear market in late 2015, gold has been making a distinct series of higher lows as it marched higher.  Now it needs to push through a distinct ceiling.

    And this week's catalyst could be just the push it needs to break out. I'll show you exactly why - and how high gold prices can climb - just after I recap gold's movement over the last week...

    Gold Prices Built a New Launching Pad Last Week

    Gold prices traded within a narrow range last week despite the dollar's recent fluctuations. That's a sign gold is consolidating, waiting for the right catalyst to burst higher.

    After touching an intraday spot low of $1,290 on Tuesday (June 5), gold prices rocketed upward as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made a final gasp to 94.3.

    Take a look at the DXY's brief spike on Tuesday before it fell again...

    US Dollar index

    Gold then rose on balance as the week progressed, inching its way toward $1,300, testing that price level multiple times, and even crossing it on Wednesday (June 6), Thursday (June 7), and Friday (June 8), before settling back in a very tight range between $1,298 and $1,299.

    Not even some sizeable movement in the dollar was enough to affect gold's steady, narrowing price range.

    By late Friday afternoon, gold was still stuck at $1,299. It's evident gold prices built a base to launch higher from. The catalyst, it would seem, still lays ahead.

    Which is why this week could send gold prices surging to this bullish gold price target...

    Why This Week Is Powering My Latest Gold Price Prediction

    Like I mentioned earlier, the dollar does seem to be in a favorable mode for higher gold.

    US Dollar Index Cash Settle

    The DXY pullback I pointed to in the previous update continued this past week. That's done plenty to correct the overbought condition evidenced by the RSI and MACD momentum indicators.

    The Fed rate hike this week will likely support the dollar, lifting it back up. But odds are, much of that rate hike is already priced in. I'd expect any rally to be short-lived.

    Ever since the recent, swift correction in mid May, when gold dropped from $1,320 to $1,290, the metal has essentially regained and held at $1,300.

    Gold Chart

    What's more, action in both the RSI and MACD have been confirming strength in gold's bounce back from $1,290.

    I think gold is simply basing at $1,300, while pressure builds for a new leg up. The first hurdle will be $1,320, then around $1,350. But the prize will be around $1,365 (the ceiling since late January), because from there the $1,400 psychological barrier will be within easy reach.

    As for gold stocks, they too have been moving sideways for the past two months and in fact are still where they were back in October.

    GDX Gold Miners Chart

    Notice that the RSI and MACD have nearly flatlined for the past month and have had neither a bearish nor bullish bias.

    And relative to gold, gold stocks have also been essentially moving sideways, providing no real clues as to where they may be headed next.

    GDX Gold Miners Chart

    But with gold speculators in a neutral-to-(contrarian)-bullish stance with their futures positions, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report, I think this week's likely Fed rate hike will be the trigger.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 11 Jun 2018 17:39:15 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/06/11/gold-prices-are-getting-a-much-needed-catalyst-this-week/ Why Gold Prices Won't Stay Flat for Long https://moneymorning.com/2018/05/14/why-gold-prices-wont-stay-flat-for-long/ Gold prices have mostly moved sideways over the last few weeks thanks to the dollar. But the technical indicators I'm watching show that the price of gold is nearing a breakout point...

    A peak in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which may still only be short-lived, allowed gold to show a reasonable gain in the last week.


    Tame, just-released inflation numbers weighed on the dollar, as the market saw this to mean the U.S. Federal Reserve may not need to raise rates as aggressively as expected. That provided the fuel for gold to gain nearly $10 per ounce last week.

    Even though gold gave up those gains today (May 14), the big picture for the yellow metal remains bullish.

    Looking back over the last four years, we see that overhead price resistance remains around $1,375. But in the last two years, gold has spent the better half of the last two years above its 200-day moving average, with that being the case for nearly all of the last 10 months.

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    Since mid-2016, gold's two-year moving average has been heading noticeably higher, and the gold price has spent nearly all of its time above that level.

    So even if sentiment remains weak and gold "feels" like it's going nowhere, the reality is, in fact, a lot more encouraging.

    I'll show you my latest gold price prediction, so you can see exactly how high gold prices will rise, right after I recap last week's gold price action...

    The Price of Gold Benefited from a Weak Dollar

    In the first part of last week, gold's challenges were a strengthening dollar and higher stock prices. But in the second half of the week, gold was able to turn around thanks to new dollar weakness, even as stocks powered higher.

    Gold started the week on Monday (May 7) at $1,311 and closed at $1,314, as the DXY dialed back about 25 basis points.

    But the DXY regained strength on Tuesday (May 8), and that pushed gold down to test $1,306 just before 4:00 a.m. Traders seemed to favor the dollar for safety, with the DXY peaking at 93.25 around 10:00 a.m.

    The DXY would peak near 93.40 on Wednesday (May 9) in the early morning, causing gold to test even lower, this time touching $1,304. But from there, the dollar began its trend lower for the rest of the week.

    Take a look at the dollar's slide beginning on Thursday...

    Gold Prices

    Extended dollar weakness on Thursday and Friday (May 11) helped gold close at $1,321 on Thursday, then push to $1,325 by early Friday. But some profit-taking dominated gold markets, and the yellow metal would sell off to end the week at $1,318.

    But last week's gold price movement pushed the metal deceptively higher, and new catalysts will fuel it to my latest gold price target in 2018...

    My Gold Price Prediction Shows How High the Metal Can Go

    The DXY hit what looks like (at least) an interim peak on early Wednesday, at 93.40. That made for a relentless, powerful climb of a massive 400 basis points, or near 4.5%, in less than a month.

    But you can see how both the RSI and MACD momentum indicators have also just peaked. If this turns out to be a temporary correction, then watch for the DXY to possibly bounce at the 200-day moving average, near 91.84.

    Take a look...

    Gold Prices

    If the DXY crosses below in a significant way, then this correction is likely to gain steam. If, instead, that line holds as support, the DXY may head higher.

    But gold could still strengthen. We're also still in a seasonally bullish period until at least early June, so there may be a positive surprise left.

    You can see that gold bounced at its 200-day moving average, around $1,306, in the chart below, and both the RSI and MACD have just turned higher, as well.

    Gold Prices

    Consider, too, that the recent Commitments of Traders reports show commercial traders (smart money) have dramatically reduced their short gold positions, suggesting they too are looking for rising gold prices.

    And the gold-stocks-to-gold ratio has also remained healthy, even through gold's correction, starting in late April.

    Gold Prices

    Once again, this gold stocks strength bodes well for gold itself, perhaps leading the metal higher.

    The World Gold Council said that gold-backed exchange-traded funds had the strongest inflows last month in over a year, up by 72.2 tonnes to 2,481 tonnes in April.

    And with the United States pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, American sanctions could cause Iranians to convert U.S. dollars to gold, perhaps boosting the metal's demand and price for some time.

    Once we see gold push through $1,360, I think it will easily breach $1,375. From there, $1,400 will only be a small step in price but a big psychological threshold, perhaps to be reached this summer.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 14 May 2018 20:38:30 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/05/14/why-gold-prices-wont-stay-flat-for-long/ Why the Dollar's Strength Is Critical for the Price of Gold https://moneymorning.com/2018/05/07/why-the-dollars-strength-is-critical-for-the-price-of-gold/ The price of gold fell to test $1,300 last week, as gold investors scrutinized the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. But it's the dollar's strength that will determine gold prices, and I'll show you exactly why...

    The FOMC meeting concluded Wednesday (May 2), and Fed watchers were left trying to decipher the Fed's summary of its decision-making. Its statement introduced the word "symmetric" in an effort to balance interpretations that may seem too "hawkish."


    Yes, I know, we're reduced to guessing what message the Fed's trying to telegraph by parsing esoteric word choices.

    But analysts seem to agree that the Fed is not anxious to get ahead of inflation.

    Inflation has been running above 2% for several months, and that could become a major spark for gold prices.

    So could a weakening dollar.

    And that makes the next few months pivotal for gold prices. Here's what moved gold prices last week, plus my gold price target for the end of summer...

    The FOMC Meeting Sent Gold Traders Scrambling

    It was a rough start to last week's gold trading as the dollar extended its rally. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose from 91.5 to end Monday (April 30) at 91.85, pushing gold back to $1,315 as the markets began anticipating the outcome of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday.

    As the DXY climbed further on Tuesday (May 1) to 92.45, gold lost another $12, to close at $1,303. Despite their hit on Monday, gold stocks were unphased by Tuesday's weakness and climbed.

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    That continued again on Wednesday, the day of the FOMC meeting, even as gold climbed only $2.

    It certainly gave the impression of a sign of exhaustion for gold stock sellers, suggesting that $1,300 may hold as support for gold. The Fed declined to raise rates, and despite a post-announcement dip, the dollar rose further, to 92.75.

    You can see the dollar's rough ride on Wednesday, as traders made sense of the Fed meeting...


    By Thursday (May 3), the DXY was back around 92.5, and gold traders finally digested the Fed's statement, factoring in the expected three more rate hikes this year. Gold prices rose on the day, ending at $1,312.

    To end the trading week, the dollar rallied initially on news of the unemployment rate falling further, to 3.9%. Gold popped then dropped back, though ultimately climbed to end the week at $1,315, as the DXY retreated to 92.57.

    While the dollar's relationship to the price of gold is no secret, how the dollar's strength moves over the coming months will be the key driver behind gold prices.

    Here's how I see it playing out, as well as my latest gold price prediction...

    What the Dollar's Strength Will Mean for Gold Prices in 2018

    The dollar has been strengthening over the last two weeks. But current levels may be overhead resistance for the dollar, as 92.5 has been strong support through 2015 and 2016.

    Take a look here...


    But the dollar's also looking overbought right now, as is often the case when it reaches above 70 (it's currently at 74).

    It's crucial to watch what happens from here...

    If the DXY heads back down, gold could rally dramatically.

    While gold did have a challenging week, courtesy of the dollar, it managed to test its 200-day moving average and bounce back, as you can see here.


    Plus, when you look at the gold-stocks-to-gold ratio, things start to get even more interesting...

    Over the past week, even with gold dropping then bouncing back, the gold-stocks-to-gold ratio has actually established a new three-month high.


    That means buyers of gold stocks stepped up in the face of soft gold prices.

    And the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX) is showing a strong upward trend to the $23 level.


    If the dollar's rally has peaked, then both gold and gold stocks are likely to be pushed markedly higher, and a gold price of $1,400 could happen much sooner than most expect.

    Senior analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone said recently that gold's trading range has been especially narrow lately, and that the dollar's run could be peaking.

    Overall, in this kind of environment, it wouldn't take much of a spark to set off a sudden rally in gold, taking most observers by surprise.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 07 May 2018 18:42:39 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/05/07/why-the-dollars-strength-is-critical-for-the-price-of-gold/ Gold Prices Have a New Bullish Catalyst https://moneymorning.com/2018/04/30/gold-prices-have-a-new-bullish-catalyst/ Gold prices had two distinct drivers over the past week, but this latest trend could propel the price of gold even higher in 2018...

    The first driver was certainly the U.S. dollar, whose index rose dramatically by nearly 150 basis points from trough to peak. That drove gold prices toward their lower resistance levels.

    But the second gold price catalyst was a significant event that all investors should take note of...

    It was the U.S. 10-year Treasury hitting the 3% yield level, something it hasn't done since 2014.  That's important because it's a psychological threshold, and the 10-year Treasury is a benchmark for setting prices for debt instruments around the world. 

    It has market observers expecting central banks to hike their rates, causing everything from mortgages to lines of credit to follow. And that will mean squeezed household budgets hurting consumer spending.

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    Higher bond yields also compete with equities, making the latter a less attractive asset for investors. While higher rates compete with gold, they're also a sign of rising inflation.

    Rising inflation supports a higher gold price.

    That's why I'm not surprised that both the price of gold and bond yields can continue to rise simultaneously.

    I'll show you exactly how high I predict gold will rise, right after we recap last week's gold price performance...

    How Rising Bond Yields Boosted Gold Prices

    The trading week started out on Monday (April 23) on a weak note. An overnight dollar rally took the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) from 90.4 to 90.9, pushing gold back from a weaker $1,328 open to a noon bottom at $1,322.

    The next day saw dollar profit-taking, with the DXY retreating to 90.75, allowing gold to rise back to close at $1,330, despite the 10-year Treasury testing that crucial 3% mark. The Dow had plunged 2.2% by mid-afternoon, spooked by higher bond yields.

    Take a look at just how drastically the Dow plunged...


     

    But on Wednesday (April 25), gold opened back down at $1,320 on fresh DXY gains, bringing the index to 91.2 by 10:30 a.m. Gold bottomed at $1,319 at 11:00 a.m., then recuperated to close at $1,323.

    A sudden jump in the DXY on Thursday (April 26) morning took it from 91 to 91.5 and pushed gold back from $1,324 to rapidly test $1,316, where it basically stayed into the close.

    Here's a look at the DXY's jump on Thursday...


    Friday's (April 27) historic joint announcement by North and South Korean leaders of an official end to the Korean War and a commitment to complete denuclearization of the peninsula did not convince gold buyers. The precious metal bounced back even as the DXY tested the 92 level, then retreated. Gold ended the week at $1,323.

    But while gold prices were flat last week, I noticed a pattern that could signal a gold price breakout soon...

    My Gold Price Prediction as the Dollar and Bond Yields Rise

    If the dollar is gold's biggest near-term influence, then let's look at it more closely.


    While the DXY has enjoyed quite the surge past its previous resistance around 90.5, it could have a bit more momentum on its side. Both the RSI and MACD do not look like they've topped out yet.

    We could see a little weakness before a final push higher. I still think the DXY could make a run for the 92 level (current 200-day moving average), or even 92.5, the previous high.

    Of course, that would likely continue to cap any strength in gold, but I don't expect dollar strength to have legs. Once it peaks, gold could be off to the races.

    As for gold, it has dipped below its 50-day moving average in the past week, bouncing at the $1,315 mark. If the DXY makes its run to 92 or 92.5, gold could easily test $1,300 to $1,310.

    You can see where $1,300 could form a resistance level...


    Meanwhile, gold stocks have also retreated from previous resistance.


    But interestingly, looking at the gold-stocks-to-gold ratio tells another story.


    The ratio has managed a new high this week, despite gold's obvious weakness. This strength in gold stocks bodes well for gold. The RSI and MACD have shown incredible ongoing upward momentum since February.

    And we are in the sweet spot seasonally for gold stocks right now. During up years since the gold bull began in 2001, gold stocks have managed almost 13% of gains between mid-March and early June. That would mean another 6% to 7% gain from current levels.

    But if gold manages to break higher on dollar weakness, we could see considerably more gains.

    Once again, bond king Jeffrey Gundlach told his DoubleLine clients recently that gold remains above its 200-day moving average and that the gold market has "explosive potential energy."

    Let's see if gold can reach for $1,400 this summer and maybe make a run for $1,500 by year's end.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 30 Apr 2018 20:05:17 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/04/30/gold-prices-have-a-new-bullish-catalyst/ Why Gold Prices Are Heading for a Breakout Soon https://moneymorning.com/2018/04/23/why-gold-prices-are-heading-for-a-breakout-soon/ The stock markets are in the red so far this year, with the Dow down over 1%, but gold prices continue to gain.

    Between geopolitical tensions and the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hikes, investors are uneasy about the stock market right now. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has nearly doubled this year.

    Gold is actually managing to consolidate on the higher side, as bonds are losing their luster. Gold prices have risen to $1,327 from $1,316.10 at the start of the year.

    Gold

    But the gold price catalyst in the near term, though, could be the dollar.

    Gold still needs to make a run for $1,370, but that could happen sooner than many think.

    Here's what's been moving the price of gold, as well as my next gold price prediction as stock prices continue to slide sideways...

    Why the Price of Gold Was Flat Last Week

    On the whole, gold had a sideways to slight downward bias for the week, as geopolitical tensions eased a bit.

    Monday (April 16) and Tuesday (April 17) were nearly neutral for the metal, which was up slightly by just $4, to $1,347. News of a 1.9% rise in U.S. housing stats in March over February kept the lid mostly on.

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    But on Wednesday (April 18), gold climbed in early morning trading to peak at $1,353 around 9:00 a.m., and from there pulled back slightly to close at $1,349.

    The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) got its second wind on Thursday (April 19) in the late morning, powering up from near 89.5 to break higher and trade in the 89.85 range, likely boosted by oversold conditions.

    Check out how the DXY jumped on Thursday and ran higher into the weekend...


    The DXY's jump forced gold lower, to close at $1,345 on Thursday, as the stock markets also took a hit...


    The downturn was a theme that bled into Friday (April 20), with stocks down along with bonds as bond yields pushed higher. Gold gave back $5 to close at $1,335 on the day.

    But gold's sneaky performance on the year is an encouraging sign, one that could help push gold prices to my latest gold price target...

    Gold Prices Have a Bullish Wind at Their Back

    There's an interesting face-off that seems to be developing between gold and the dollar. And the interesting part is that they could both win.

    Here's what I mean...

    The dollar has been moving in a sideways range since mid-January.


    This is a bullish technical formation, an ascending triangle pattern that develops during a consolidation period. Often, the result is a breakout to the upside.

    In my view, that could pop the DXY to 92.5, but I doubt it would do much more than that.

    And before you decide that's going to be bearish for gold, first have a look at its own chart.


    Interestingly, gold seems to be forming its own bullish ascending triangle pattern. The top of that triangle is at $1,365.

    The dollar is closer to its top and could break out before gold does, and it could even keep a bit of a lid on gold for a short while. But ultimately, the yellow metal seems to be setting up for a rally once it breaks through $1,365, and then ultimately $1,400.

    As for gold stocks, the action may be a foreshadowing of this move in gold I'm expecting.

    Here's a look at gold stocks.


    The recent rise above the 200-day moving average is significant in terms of momentum. Also, notice the RSI and MACD have run higher in the last week especially. Notice too that the 50-day moving average (blue line) has just turned up as well.

    If gold stocks can hold above the 200-day moving average, then that could mean more highs will come.

    Now, looking at the gold-stocks-to-gold ratio, we see a similar outlook.


    The outperformance of gold stocks to gold of the past two weeks is very bullish and suggests both these assets could be headed higher. And the 50-day moving average (blue line) having just turned up helps support that possibility.

    Meanwhile, here are a few interesting, recent gold tidbits.

    Managing partner Fitz Folts, at 3EDGE Asset Management LP in Boston, with $800 million in assets, recently said it was time to move away from emerging markets and bonds, and head toward gold. According to Folts, gold is best suited now to provide protection against risks from trade tensions.

    Fund manager at Incrementum AG Ronald-Peter Stoeferle said he expects that the trend higher in gold prices could have a longer life even than real bond yields. Given the recent end of the three-decade bond bull market, that's saying a lot.

    Also, ING bank commodity strategist Oliver Nugent recently said he expects gold will surpass $1,400 before too long. His rationale is that markets are not accounting for the risk of rising inflation.

    On that note, I must agree. And that's why I think $1,400 gold could be here sometime this summer.

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    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 23 Apr 2018 20:31:27 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/04/23/why-gold-prices-are-heading-for-a-breakout-soon/ Why the Price of Gold Is Heading for a Double-Digit Surge in 2018 https://moneymorning.com/2018/04/16/why-the-price-of-gold-is-heading-for-a-double-digit-surge-in-2018/ The stock market has been especially volatile this year, and that's proving to be a boon for the price of gold...

    The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) more than tripled its January average on Feb. 5, when the Dow Jones sank more than 1,000 points. The VIX is still nearly double its Jan. 1 level.

    Since the start of 2018, there have been some 100 trading days with a daily movement of at least 1%.

    That's a great sign for gold prices in 2018.

    Volatility indicates uncertainty, and precious metals tend to thrive in that kind of environment.

    You Must Act Now: America is headed for an economic disaster bigger than anything since the Great Depression. If you lost out when the markets crashed in 2008, then you are going to want to see this special presentation...

    Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hover in a holding pattern after retreating by a full 100 basis points in the past week.

    While the dollar is moving sideways in its near-term action, it's likely headed lower in the medium term, and that should help support higher gold prices.

    These are excellent trends supporting my 2018 gold price prediction. And I'll show you exactly how they impact my latest gold price target right after we take a look at last week's highlights for gold prices...

    The Price of Gold Rode Volatility Higher

    After climbing stealthily on Monday (April 9) and Tuesday (April 10), gold prices soared on Wednesday (April 11) to a seven-week high as U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted his plan to attack Syria.

    The uncertainty surrounding a potential military conflict in Syria spurred gold buying, as it's traditionally a safe-haven holding.

    Price of gold

    June Comex gold futures reached as much as $1,361 intraday on Wednesday, helped also by weaker-than-expected inflation data.

    Analysts believe weaker data could cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates more slowly, hurting the dollar and helping gold. Spot gold prices were up 1%, while gold stocks jumped 2.2% as the Dow Jones Industrial sank 1%.

    You can see how the DXY sank from its Monday open here...

    gold prices in 2018

    The bullish sentiment behind gold gave way to optimism in the stock market on Thursday (April 12).

    The dollar enjoyed a bounce as stocks gained again, and both weighed on gold as it gave back two days of gains. But on Friday, markets opened higher, then reversed and ultimately closed down. Gold enjoyed a renewed bounce, ending the week at $1,345 as the DXY softened to around 89.75.

    While gold prices saw a modest gain last week, all signs are pointing to an even more lucrative future for the yellow metal.

    Here's exactly what I see in store for gold prices this year, including my updated price targets...

    The Cards Are Falling Just Right for Gold Prices in 2018

    Despite gold's ups and downs last week, the precious metal continues to stealthily build a constructively higher price.

    Although gold's been moving steadily higher within its upward trend channel since early 2017, it does appear to be consolidating more recently within a sideways range, as you can see below...

    That sideways trend has kept gold between $1,300 and $1,365 since the start of 2018. But that's just a 4.5% trading range at current gold prices.

    If we zoom in closer, you'll notice that gold has managed to stay mostly above its 50-day moving average, around $1,330, since late March.

    Barring any real strength in the U.S. dollar, I think the 50-day moving average will start to act as a support line.

    And the dollar is facing opposite pressure.

    In the same way the 50-day moving average may become support for gold, it could also become overhead resistance for the DXY.

    When the DXY eventually breaks down below 88.5, that could do wonders for gold prices as it reinforces the dollar's bear market action.

    As for gold stocks, the price action over the past year has understandably managed to frustrate the bulls.

    Check out the sideways trading range for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX)...

    That's a long time to remain between $21 and $25.50 for the GDX.

    But if we put this chart under the magnifying glass, we can see the beginning of a bullish trend.

    While GDX has been rising since late March, the RSI indicator has been confirming that momentum, and the MACD was already trending higher since early March.

    Perhaps more significant is the GDX-to-gold ratio.

    Last week, I suggested the possible rounding bottom for this ratio could mean a "breakout" for this sector. Over the past week, this ratio has broken higher. Both the RSI and MACD have been predicting this for at least a month.

    It's looking like momentum is on the side of gold stocks, which could be leading the metal higher.

    A recent report by Macquarie Research commodity analysts says they see precious metals as holding the best potential within the broader commodity sector, with gold prices rising into 2020.  The report cited the risk of higher inflation and a weaker greenback thanks to bloated U.S. deficits.

    At this juncture, seasonal strength could push gold to $1,400 by summer, then tackle the $1,500 level by year's end.

    But the recent uncertainty surrounding President Trump's attitude on Syria highlights how important it is to have a defensive financial plan in place...

    There Is No Place for Fear, Panic, or Mistakes

    You may only have a few months to prepare.

    Because a market signal that showed up before the Great Depression... before the dot-com crash... and before the 2008 financial crisis has just appeared again.

    Each time this signal appears, investors only have a few short months before chaos strikes.

    Which means if you want to protect yourself and your family, there is no place for fear, panic, or mistakes.

    You must act now. Click here to discover how.

    Follow Money Morning on FacebookTwitter, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 16 Apr 2018 17:36:59 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/04/16/why-the-price-of-gold-is-heading-for-a-double-digit-surge-in-2018/ Why Gold Prices Will Overcome the Dollar's Recent Strength https://moneymorning.com/2018/04/02/why-gold-prices-will-overcome-the-dollars-recent-strength/ Gold prices took a hit last week, giving back most of the previous week's gains, but that was only a temporary pullback.

    After the best week in nearly two years, the price of gold took a hit after a small relief rally in the U.S. dollar.

    But the dollar's strength won't last much longer.

    Gold

    The dollar is likely still in the midst of a longer-term bear market, and bouts of strength tend to be short-lived.

    In fact, this past week's dollar rally may have more to do with seasonal money flows than any real fundamental strength.

    You see, March 31 marked the close of the first quarter and the beginning of the Easter holiday weekend. Traders and fund managers may be taking advantage of the lull in trading as the quarter turns over to "window dress" and rebalance their accounts.

    You Must Act Now: America is headed for an economic disaster bigger than anything since the Great Depression. If you lost out when the markets crashed in 2008, then you are going to want to see this special presentation...

    But growing U.S. deficits combined with higher rates overseas are likely to continue to draw investors away from the greenback and into other currencies.

    Even more importantly, seasonal gold prices show the metal tends to put in an interim bottom at the end of March before kicking off a strong rally into the end of May.

    I'll show you my latest gold price target based on this seasonal trend in a bit, but let's first recap last week's gold price action...

    A Strengthening Dollar Hurt Gold Prices Last Week

    Gold enjoyed a bit of strength on Monday (March 26), as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell. The index weakened early then spent most of the day hovering just above 89, as stocks rallied strongly. Gold opened at $1,349, then jumped to a 1:00 p.m. peak of $1,355, before settling back into the close at $1,353.

    On Tuesday (March 27), gold peaked very early at 3:00 a.m. at $1,355, then sold off hard.

    The DXY surged to an 8:00 a.m. peak at 89.60, causing gold to fall to $1,342 by 11:00 a.m. The DXY backtracked to hover around 89.30 for the balance of the day, while gold clawed back to close at $1,345.

    On Wednesday (March 28), gold suffered the most damage. The dollar rallied after stocks moved sideways on the day. The DXY rose from 89.5 in the early morning to 90.10 by 2:00 p.m. It was up over 100 points from early Tuesday morning. Gold opened weak at $1,336, then sold off further on the dollar's strength to close at a battered $1,324.

    Take a look at the dollar's rally on Wednesday...

    Gold

    Then, on Thursday (March 30), some intriguing action took place heading into the Easter weekend. Even as the DXY maintained its strength above 90 and stocks showed strong gains on the day, gold stocks bounced back even as gold stayed weak after Wednesday's action.

    Gold opened at $1,325, then weakened to $1,322, before bouncing back to close flat at $1,325.  But gold stocks, as measured by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) were up a strong 1.48% in the absence of gold strength.

    That's a strong bullish indicator for gold prices this week. Here's my gold price prediction for the first half of the year...

    Gold's Seasonal Boom Will Overpower the Dollar's Recent Strength

    The dollar's recent bout of strength could see some follow-through, but I still think it's going to run into heavy resistance.

    Since mid-January, the DXY has been unable to break above 90.50 despite several attempts.  And given the DXY's most recent action, it looks like the declining 50-day moving average is acting as somewhat of an upper limit.

    I've indicated the DXY's recent resistance level in the chart below...

    Gold

    With possibly limited dollar upside from here and the start of what has typically been seasonal strength for the next two months, gold could see a good run over the next several weeks.

    Gold itself had a tough week, but it is still managing to consolidate higher in a range between $1,310 and $1,360.

    Take a look at how gold has been climbing through this trend channel...

    Gold

    And gold stocks, despite having gone nearly nowhere since mid-December, have recently shown significant upside, even on days gold doesn't gain. That's a sign that traders are bullish on gold.

    I think we could see gold's upper resistance, around $1,365, finally taken out by the start of summer, which means a target of $1,400 is within reach by the end of the second quarter.

    Bloomberg Reports: "Trouble Is Brewing."

    According to Bloomberg's latest report, America could be heading for an economic disaster that would rival the Great Recession.

    Billionaire Ray Dalio's hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has made a $22 billion bet against the market.

    And Citibank calls our present situation "eerily reminiscent of the mortgage crisis."

    To see why we believe some of the richest players in the world are preparing for a market collapse, click here.

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    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 02 Apr 2018 17:21:06 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/04/02/why-gold-prices-will-overcome-the-dollars-recent-strength/ The 2 Catalysts Behind the Latest Surge in Gold Prices https://moneymorning.com/2018/03/26/the-2-catalysts-behind-the-latest-surge-in-gold-prices/ After a flat start to the month for gold prices, they finally took off last week. And that's setting the stage for an even longer gold price rally...

    Gold prices surged higher after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked rates last week, gaining $35 per ounce, or 2.7%.

    It was the perfect response to stocks. The stock market tumbled after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday, then fell some more after U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats.

    Both events helped push gold prices higher, and they both showed us that they'll be long-term catalysts for gold prices in 2018.

    Gold Prices
    First, the Fed's rate hike helped send the price of gold higher.

    The stock market initially rallied after the Fed's rate hike announcement. But that reversed once Powell detailed his views, pushing stocks into the red.

    In short, Powell appeared more optimistic about the economy, and thus more hawkish on rates, than traders were prepared for. That's a sign the Fed should easily reach its expected total of three rates hikes in 2018, which will continue to push gold prices up.

    Second, Trump's threat to slap $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports over unfair acquisition of intellectual property affirmed we are at the start of a trade war.

    If Trump goes through with anti-China tariffs, it will raise the cost of living for Americans and could send stocks tumbling even more.

    You Must Act Now: America is headed for an economic disaster bigger than anything since the Great Depression. If you lost out when the markets crashed in 2008, then you are going to want to see this special presentation...

    And that's a form of inflation, which is always a boost for gold as investors look to protect their money.

    Now that the gold price rally is kicking into gear, I'll show you my latest gold price prediction for the second half of 2018.

    But let's recap last week's gold price action first...

    Gold Prices Had a Banner Week

    The week kicked off with what I'm calling "miner merger" on Monday (March 19).

    That's when two junior miner takeovers were announced. Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE: HL) agreed to buy Klondex Mines Ltd. (NYSE: KLDX) at a 59% premium. Then Alio Gold Inc. (TSX: ALO) said it would buy Rye Patch Gold Corp. (TSXV: RPM) for a 35% premium. Those mergers, along with a dollar sell-off, helped gold go from its open at $1,310 to a close of $1,317.

    On Tuesday (March 20), those gains were undone as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rallied from 89.90 to 90.43, as traders anticipated the next day's expected rate hike. Gold opened at $1,311 and worked sideways through the day to a flat NY close at $1,311.

    But the fireworks started on Wednesday (March 21), as gold traders looked forward to the rate hike news.

    Despite an initial bump in stocks, the markets turned lower on Powell's remarks and closed down for the day. But the DXY dropped from 90.2 to 90 after the rate hike, then worked its way down to 89.68 by 5:00 p.m. Gold rose steadily and strongly through the day, opening at $1,315 and climbing to $1,332 by 5:00 p.m.

    Here's how the DXY reacted to Wednesday's Fed rate hike...

    Gold Prices

    Then, on Thursday (March 22), the stock market collapsed on the latest tariff announcement. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% while the Dow lost 724 points, or 2.93%, as selling intensified through the day. The DXY managed a small rally from 89.5 to 89.85, keeping gold in check as it opened at $1,329 and closed flat on the day.

    Take a look at just how drastic the Dow fell after the Trump administration announced more tariffs on China...

    Gold Prices

    But overnight weakness returned to the dollar, and gold bounced. By Friday's (March 23) open, the DXY was at 89.61. Gold opened way up at $1,346, tested $1,350 early in the day, then closed flat at $1,346.

    It was a tremendous vote of confidence for the precious metal as a haven from stocks. The S&P 500 was down 2.1%, while the DOW lost 424 points. It was a rough week unless you owned gold, as the yellow metal was up 2.7% over those five trading days.

    And with at least two more rate hikes and a trade war with China looming, it's no surprise that I'm predicting gold prices will rise even higher.

    Here's my latest gold price target for 2018...

    How High Gold Prices Can Go This Year

    Before we get to my latest prediction, I want to show you how I've been approaching the Fed's policymaking.

    Here's what I said last week:

    "The Fed will proceed with a rate hike of 0.25%, and the dollar will get a decent bump, while gold will retreat. But as the markets digest that higher rates reflect the Fed's expectation of higher inflation, bonds will weaken and pull the dollar back down with them, especially as traders consider the full effects of huge ongoing budget deficits. As a result, gold will reverse and start to rally higher."

    Well, it was mostly right, with the timing off slightly. Gold retreated, but only prior to the rate hike, then climbed before and right through it.

    I also said:

    "I'd expect the DXY to top out at 90.5, which has been its previous resistance. Note also both the RSI and MACD losing momentum."

    The DXY peaked on Tuesday at 90.43 and has headed steadily lower.

    We are on the right track, and I think any further rate hikes this year are likely already priced into the dollar, and it could consolidate awhile before heading lower.

    As for gold, sentiment seems to have shifted to bullish. Gold is now just $20 below its recent resistance at $1,370, and the RSI and MACD momentum indicators are confirming this past week's rally.

    Take a look...

    Gold Prices

    A gold price of $1,400 may not get taken out on the first attempt, but it's looking much more achievable now.  I think gold can reach that level over the next month or two, with $1,500 in its sights for the second half of 2018.

    And while gold is rallying, it's not the only way you can protect yourself from what the Fed is up to...

    The Scary Details the Fed Didn't Reveal

    On Feb. 27, Chair Jerome Powell revealed the Fed would raise interest rates.

    What he didn't say is that those rate hikes could send the U.S. economy into a tailspin... and very well might lead to the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression.

    If you are not willing to lose everything in another market crash, then click here.

    Because it's possible to protect yourself from the coming economic disaster - but you have to act now.

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 26 Mar 2018 18:31:08 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/03/26/the-2-catalysts-behind-the-latest-surge-in-gold-prices/ What Wednesday's Fed Meeting Means for Gold Prices in 2018 https://moneymorning.com/2018/03/19/what-wednesdays-fed-meeting-means-for-gold-prices-in-2018/ Members of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee will meet Wednesday (March 21), which will help boost gold prices in 2018...

    Gold prices have been stuck in a tight range between $1,310 and $1,325 over the last week, but the Fed meeting this week could propel them higher.

    Before the last several Fed rate hikes, gold corrected modestly in the weeks before, then jumped higher once traders and investors felt more comfortable "buying the news."


    In late February, newly installed Fed Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork for hiking rates up to four times this year, up from earlier estimates of three rate hikes. It's no surprise, then, that the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 91.6% probability of a rate hike Wednesday.

    And if the price of gold responds to the rate hike like it has in the past, we could see the precious metal to rally and break above its resistance level near $1,370.

    Plus, gold prices have been showing a consistently bullish pattern over the last year, which means a new catalyst could trigger even higher gold prices.

    I'll show you my gold price target and the bullish pattern I'm following in just a bit, but let's take a look at what moved gold prices last week first...

    Gold Prices Traded in a Narrow Range Thanks to the Dollar

    Gold opened the week on Monday (March 12) at $1,315. The lower-than-expected price was clearly in response to the rallying U.S. dollar, whose index had seen an earlier rally that took it from 90 to 90.18.

    But that quickly reversed, as headlines reported a record U.S. budget deficit in February of $215 billion, the largest in six years. As the dollar pulled back - the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 89.9 by the afternoon - gold rose to $1,323 by the close.

    You Must Act Now: America is headed for an economic disaster bigger than anything since the Great Depression. If you lost out when the markets crashed in 2008, then you are going to want to see this special presentation...

    A similar pattern emerged on Tuesday (March 13). The dollar rallied right up to 8:00 a.m., with the DXY reaching 90.05. But that was again short-lived, as a reversal took hold and pushed the DXY to 89.70. Gold opened at $1,319, then rallied to $1,327 before closing at $1,326.

    On Wednesday (March 14), the dollar rallied again in the first half of the day, from 89.60 to 89.85. But by the afternoon it retreated back to the 89.75 range.

    In response, gold opened at $1,326, then, after some mostly narrow trading, settled at $1,324 by 5:00 p.m.

    On Thursday (March 15), traders began looking forward to next week's Fed meeting and pricing in the likely rate hike. That helped the DXY run up from 89.65 to 90.10 by late afternoon.

    Check out the dramatic jump in the DXY on Thursday...

    Gold prices

    Of course, the DXY's gain wreaked havoc on gold prices, which opened lower at $1,319 and sold down to $1,316 by the end of NY trading.

    Then, on Friday (March 16), the DXY initially dipped back below 90 before 9:00 a.m., lifting gold to $1,319 at the open.

    But the dollar then surged higher. That pushed the DXY from 89.95 to 90.35 before noon. Gold sold off, bouncing back from a low of $1,310 around 11:00 a.m. It then recuperated slightly, to $1,312 by late afternoon.

    Gold typically sells off slightly ahead of a Fed rate hike, but the sell-off ends soon after, sending gold prices even higher.

    Here's my gold price prediction after the March rate hike, including the bullish pattern I'm seeing...

    How High Gold Prices in 2018 Can Rise

    As we gear up for the next Fed FOMC meeting, we need to watch closely how the dollar, bonds, stocks, and gold react.

    But based on experience, I'd say watch these asset classes especially over the few days following the expected rate hike.

    Here's my prediction and expectation for gold prices.

    The Fed will proceed with a rate hike of 0.25%, and the dollar will get a decent bump, while gold will retreat. But as the markets digest how higher rates reflect the Fed's expectation of higher inflation, bonds will weaken and pull the dollar back down with them, especially as traders consider the full effects of huge ongoing budget deficits. As a result, gold will reverse and start to rally higher.

    I expect the DXY to top out at 90.5, which has been its previous resistance.  Note also that both the RSI and MACD are losing momentum in the chart below...

    Gold prices

    As for gold, I think its downside will be limited to $1,290 or $1,300 before it reverses and rallies. I've highlighted what I predict will be gold's floor in the price chart below...

    Gold prices

    But more importantly, here's the bullish pattern gold's been tracing out...

    Gold prices

    Despite overhead resistance at $1,370, gold's been in a rising trend channel since December 2016. Its price has been establishing a series of higher lows and higher highs.

    The prize remains $1,400, which is currently the top of the trend channel. A solid push above that level, with $1,370 acting as new support, will do wonders for sentiment in the precious metals space and likely kick off the next mega-rally.

    And that could take gold to near $1,500 before this year is out.

    But there's more to the Fed's coming interest rate hike...

    The Scary Details the Fed Didn't Reveal

    On Feb. 27, Chair Jerome Powell revealed the Fed would raise interest rates.

    What he didn't say is that those rate hikes could send the U.S. economy into a tailspin... and very well might lead to the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression.

    If you are not willing to lose everything in another market crash, then click here.

    Because it's possible to protect yourself from the coming economic disaster - but you have to act now.

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 19 Mar 2018 19:47:17 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/03/19/what-wednesdays-fed-meeting-means-for-gold-prices-in-2018/ The Price of Gold Has Been Volatile, but a Rally Is Coming https://moneymorning.com/2018/02/26/the-price-of-gold-has-been-volatile-but-a-rally-is-coming/ There's been no shortage of forces pushing and pulling on the price of gold over the past week.

    Federal Reserve minutes, stocks, the dollar, rising bond yields, budget deficits, inflation, sentiment, and even simple demand versus supply.

    Price of gold

    Gold gave up most of the gains it managed to tack on in the previous week. The bulk of that weakness came on Tuesday, as traders were preparing for the Fed's January meeting minutes due out Wednesday.

    Then came Wednesday, and gold put on a brave rally in response to the Fed, but quickly reversed to end the day.

    Some Fed Open Market Committee members see economic growth accelerating faster than they did at their previous meeting. That caused the Dow to pop - along with gold prices - initially.

    But then traders digested that and became concerned it could cause the Fed to raise rates faster than expected, perhaps hiking rates four times rather than three this year.

    This Niche Gold Investment Could Soar While the Rest of the Market Drops

    Bonds sold off, pushing the 10-year yield to near 3%, a level not seen since late 2013. In response, stocks sold off and gold joined them, losing a few dollars on the day.

    But what's been striking is gold's quiet resilience in the face of a bouncing dollar and rising yields.

    I think this year will mark a clear resumption to rallying gold prices, and after we recap last week's gold price performance, I'll show you exactly why...

    Why the Price of Gold Moved Last Week

    After the quiet trading day for gold on President's Day (Feb. 19), the precious metal followed up with weakness as traders turned their attention to the next set big catalyst: the Fed minutes.

    On Tuesday, Feb. 20, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) enjoyed a early morning rally, perhaps in anticipation of news that the Fed may be more hawkish on rates.

    The DXY ran up from 89.35 to 89.70 by 9:00 a.m. Gold opened at $1,339 but sold off into late morning, reaching $1,329 by 1:00 p.m. The DXY held steady to 89.7 at 5:00 p.m., while gold then also moved sideways to close at $1,329.

    Wednesday (Feb. 21) was the day FOMC meeting minutes were released. And like I detailed above, the minutes showed Fed officials were anticipating higher-than-expected economic growth. But faster economic growth could mean quicker rate hikes and higher bond yields, which compete with gold.

    So the yellow metal, which opened at $1,328 and spiked to $1,335 just after 2:00 p.m., did an immediate reversal and sold down to $1,322 before a minor rebound to $1,323 by the close.

    Check out how the dollar spiked on Wednesday after the minutes were released...

    gold

    Gold would suffer a bit more weakness overnight Wednesday into Thursday, as the DXY bounced above 90 and stayed there until just before 9:00 a.m. The DXY then sold off to around 89.75, allowing gold to regain some strength. The precious metal opened at $1,323, then rallied throughout the day to reach $1,331 by the 5:00 p.m. close.

    And finally, to end the trading week, gold pulled back once again as the DXY made another run for 90 but hovered for most of the day around 89.9. Gold moved sideways, opening at $1,330, and by late afternoon, it was still trading at that level.

    While gold prices showed some signs of weakness, they've actually held up better than expected. That's giving me more reason to expect a gold price rally this year.

    Here's my gold price target after last week's price action...

    How High Gold Prices Will Rise in 2018

    Despite the pressures of rising bond yields and the prospect of higher Fed rates, gold has been a stalwart.

    Here's why...

    Trump's massive tax cuts are triggering equally massive budget deficits. That's spooking the markets, as it's sure to lead to higher rates. Bonds are already selling off.

    On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.94%. That's just shy of the crucial 3% level not seen since late 2013, and it's already more than twice the yield in July 2016.

    Take a look at the recent spikes in the Treasury yield...

    gold prices

    The prospect of higher rates is causing market observers to shy away from the dollar, and that is in turn what's helping to support gold.

    Here's a look at gold's price action over the past year.

    gold price target

    You can see the price soared from last December, when the Fed hiked rates. Despite the recent pullback, gold's looking pretty resolute and so far has managed to stay above the $1,312 support level.

    Also, the gold price appears to be forming an upward trend channel and is currently right at support.

    I think we could be due for renewed dollar weakness and some temporary stock market weakness as the recent correction continues to play out. Both of these should be good for gold.

    I've been saying the next price level to watch in gold is $1,365, as that's the previous high from mid 2016, which was tested again in January.

    Here's a look at gold's price chart and the $1,365 resistance level...

    gold prices in 2018

    $1,400 will be just a chip shot from there, which could come much sooner than many think.

    And in my view, $1,500 gold has a great chance of becoming reality in the second half of this year.

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    But you'll want to watch this all the way through - as we're not talking about bullion.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 26 Feb 2018 18:35:34 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/02/26/the-price-of-gold-has-been-volatile-but-a-rally-is-coming/ Price of Gold This Week Is Rallying; Here's How High It Will Go https://moneymorning.com/2018/02/20/price-of-gold-this-week-is-rallying-heres-how-high-it-will-go/ The price of gold this week is trending upward after a volatile stock market correction in early February. While tumbling stocks temporarily weakened gold prices, the yellow metal is rallying again...

    In fact, gold has regained everything it's lost over the course of February. Last Friday (Feb. 16), gold prices touched $1,361 on an intraday basis, up from a low of $1,311 a few days earlier.


    I believe gold's quick comeback is just the beginning. As the spectre of rising inflation and rising interest rates continues to grow, we can expect gold to climb even higher.

    Here's a look at gold's performance over the last week, including exactly where I think the price of gold is heading next...

    The Price of Gold This Week Rises After Recent Volatility

    Gold started Monday (Feb. 12) on a calm note, as stocks spent most of the day rebounding before closing flat for the day. The New York spot price for gold closed at $1,323.

    On Tuesday (Feb. 13), gold mimicked stocks, as the S&P 500 gained on the day. However, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) turned bearish, spending the day below 90 and trending downward to reach 89.7 by 5:00 p.m. That helped gold eek out a small $1 gain on the day, to close at $1,329.

    Wednesday (Feb. 14) was the week's best day for gold. That's when the metal moved higher by about $25, or an impressive 2%, just between 9:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m.

    Gold investors can thank a stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation report for the bounce.

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    January CPI rose 0.5%, considerably higher than the 0.3% consensus expectation. That meant a higher risk that the Fed would be unable to keep up with inflation as it raises rates, suggesting lower real rates, or even negative real rates, could lie ahead.

    News like that is rocket fuel for gold, so the precious metal ended the day at $1,350, or $19 higher than where it started at 8:00 a.m. New York trading.

    Thursday (Feb. 15) brought some mild gains in gold, as stocks continued to recuperate, and the dollar trended lower on balance. The precious metal opened at $1,350 and gained slightly to close at $1,353.

    Friday would see gold backtrack after a strong week, as stocks declined, and the DXY managed a decent advance. The DXY rose from 88.40 in the early morning to reach 89.10 by 5:00 p.m.  As a result, gold retreated from $1,356 to end the week at $1,347.

    On Monday (Feb.19), the shortened trading day was pretty uneventful. The DXY managed to run up from 89.10 to 89.4 by mid-morning, but then retreated back to 89.2. Gold chopped back and forth, but started at $1,346 and closed at $1,346 by 1:00 p.m.

    Check out the DXY below, where you can see how it fell for most of last week before regaining some of its losses.


    And here's how stocks fared after the correction to start February.


    However, last week's gold price gains are just the beginning for this, really, and I'll show you just how high they can go with my latest gold price target...

    Here's Where the Price of Gold This Week Is Heading Next

    Last's weeks gains leave gold in a pretty good place. As for the future, gold's gains are going to be chiefly driven by the movement of the U.S. dollar.

    Last week, I said the DXY's recent bounce could see it go a little higher. But it's already not behaving well and suffered a quick pullback to 88.5 shortly after. Right now, it looks like the path of least resistance for the dollar is lower.

    You can see the dollar's downward trend in the chart below.


    And that's great for gold. As the dollar grows weaker, gold prices tend to trend upward.

    Despite its recent dip in late January, gold is on track for solid gains. Gold is now up 3.4% in just seven weeks since the year started. As and the dollar continues to trend lower, gold's rally has the potential to climb higher.

    My next gold price target is $1,365, a crucial level, as it's the high reached in July 2016 since the gold bull returned in late 2015.

    I think we could reach that target within a matter of weeks. After that, keep an eye out for $1,380, the previous high reached all the way back in August 2013. From there, just $20 more will bring us to $1,400, a psychologically important milestone that will test prices later this year.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 20 Feb 2018 19:47:42 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/02/20/price-of-gold-this-week-is-rallying-heres-how-high-it-will-go/ Here's Where Gold Prices in 2018 Are Headed After This Week's Volatility https://moneymorning.com/2018/02/12/heres-where-gold-prices-in-2018-are-headed-after-this-weeks-volatility/ If you're heavily invested in general stocks, then gold prices have been a reprieve this week.

    In fact, gold is one of the best ways to hedge against the stock market's volatility.

    Here's the proof: Over the past month, while the S&P 500 is down 6.2%, gold prices are actually up 0.2%.

    But while stocks are likely to exhibit some volatility before ultimately resuming their uptrend, gold prices may continue to pull back for longer period.Gold prices

    If you're looking for gold prices to resume their rally, just hang in there. They're likely to be back soon.

    Here's why...

    Gold Prices are Stable Despite the Current Volatility

    Let's take a close look at gold and the dollar's price movements over the last week.

    On Monday (Feb. 5), gold climbed in conjunction with the U.S. dollar. Gold opened at $1,335, hitting $1,339 by 5:00 p.m. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) started near 89 in the very early morning and rallied to 89.5 by 10:00 a.m.  From there, buyers pushed the DXY a bit higher, to 89.66 by 5 p.m.

    On Tuesday (Feb. 6), bargain seekers stepped in to buy stocks "on sale," leading to the S&P managing a decent gain late in the day. The dollar saw more buying, pushing the DXY to nearly 90. However, the index backed off to 89.55 by noon and consolidated near that level for the remainder of the day.

    Gold opened at $1,335, then succumbed to steady selling through most of the day to reach a low of $1,322 by 4 p.m.  In the last hour of NY trading, gold managed to claw back $2, to reach $1,324.

    Wednesday's (Feb. 7) action was mostly sideways for U.S. markets while the dollar rallied. That had the DXY back in rally mode, as investors sought the safe haven of cash. The DXY climbed to 89.87 by 8 a.m., then kept rising to about 90.25 in the second half of the day.

    That pushed gold lower, as some investors sold their precious metals holdings to help meet margin calls. The precious metal opened at $1,324, then bottomed around 2 p.m. at $1,313 before bouncing back slightly to close at $1,318.

    You can see how the DXY jumped on Wednesday in the chart below.

    gold

    Thursday (Feb. 8) brought the second 1,000-point drop in the Dow last week. Investors looking for an alternative to volatile securities turned to the U.S. dollar and gold. While DXY managed to consolidate around 90.30 for most of the day, gold opened at $1,312 and closed higher at $1,318.

    As you can see in the chart below, gold remained around its opening price for the whole trading session while the Dow registered significant losses.

    gold prices 2018

    On Friday (Feb. 9), stocks paired their recent losses, producing respectable gains after seesawing for most of the day. At 8 a.m., the DXY hovered near 90.4, and gold opened at $1,316. By market close, gold had managed to stay flat at $1,316.

    Over the last six trading days, gold was down 1.38%, while the S&P 500 lost 6.55%, or about 4.7 times as much.

    gold stocks

    Gold's stable performance against the Dow and S&P 500 gives us a clear lesson about how to profit during a market correction...

    Gold Prices Are Durable During a Market Sell-Off

    The takeaway here is the relative strength of gold compared to general stocks during a gut-wrenching sell-off.

    Looking at the DXY, you can see that it has already reached into my target zone of 90 to 90.5.

    stock market volatility

    We're not surprised. As I said last week:

    "The RSI has been in oversold condition for about two weeks, but the MACD has only recently flattened out. This suggests that the dollar is unlikely to weaken further in the near term, and may still bounce to test around the 90 level.

    In that vein, we can see that gold has room to move lower and still remain within its upward trend channel."

    Despite the DXY's bounce, the momentum indicators show more room to rise before the dollar fades. We may see 91.5 to 92 in the DXY.

    As for gold, it did move lower as expected, but given the dollar's bounce, it still provided a safe haven to protect investors against the stock sell-off.

    buying gold

    If stocks bounce from here and the DXY holds its current level or bounces a little higher, I'd expect gold to perhaps see a little more downside, maybe into the $1,300 to $1,310 range, where we've see both support and resistance going over the past several months.

    But after any near-term weakness, look for gold to resume its rallying and make a run for $1,365 as its next target.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 12 Feb 2018 18:30:08 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/02/12/heres-where-gold-prices-in-2018-are-headed-after-this-weeks-volatility/ Gold Prices in 2018 Will Rebound, Despite Last Week's Pullback https://moneymorning.com/2018/02/05/gold-prices-in-2018-will-rebound-despite-last-weeks-pullback/ Gold prices spent the last week consolidating lower. Despite the pullback, I remain bullish on gold prices in 2018 and will show you my price target for March in just a moment.

    Gold's biggest nemesis last week was an overbought condition rather than the dollar, since the greenback is back to nearly the same levels.

    Gold

    What has changed is sentiment. Quite simply, gold was overbought, and the dollar was oversold.

    So gold has gone from about $1,350 to $1,330, while the dollar has remained flat. But dollar sentiment improved on the heels of Trump's bullish comments.

    The dollar could have a little higher to run, but rapidly rising Treasury yields are likely to temper further gains. Rising bond yields also challenge gold prices, as they have to compete with them.

    Stocks are experiencing a long overdue correction that's bleeding into other risk assets like gold, bonds, and especially cryptocurrencies.

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    But the most undervalued of all of these unquestionably remains gold. So that's where we can expect the most significant medium- and long-term gains.

    Before we get to my outlook for gold prices in 2018, here's how the precious metal is trending today...

    Here's How the Price of Gold Is Trending Now

    $1,350 was in fact the highest level gold would see in the past week.

    The yellow metal started trending downward early on Monday as the greenback gained renewed momentum. By midday it had climbed from 89.12 to 89.50, pushing gold back to open at $1,342.  As the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) consolidated around 89.40, gold trended lower to reach $1,340 by 5:00 p.m.

    On Tuesday, a sell-off came in the dollar as the latest FOMC meeting began. The DXY peaked at 89.58 in early morning hours, then sold off to 88.95 just before 9:00 a.m. Gold bounced to a $1,344 open, then soon peaked at $1,346 by 10:00 a.m. The dollar rallied a little to 89.30 just before noon, pushing gold back to eventually close at $1,338.

    Wednesday brought renewed dollar weakness, with the DXY trading below 89 until about 11:30. Then the "Fed Effect" kicked in and helped levitate the DXY to 89.15 by 5:00 p.m.  As a result, gold opened at $1,343 and gained slightly on the day to close at $1,345.

    Here's the charted DXY action of the past week.


    On Thursday, Feb. 1, gold opened lower yet, at $1,339, but trended higher on the day thanks to yet another DXY sell-off. The DXY traded at 89 at 8:00 a.m., then sold off to 88.62 by 5:00 p.m. That helped gold rally all the way to $1,348 by 5:00 p.m.

    But Friday would see the dollar bounce from an early morning low around 88.7 by 50 basis points to 89.20 by late afternoon. The strong stock market sell-off pulled gold, bonds, oil, and cryptocurrencies along with it. Gold would open at $1,338 and settle around $1,330 to end the week.

    Now that we know how gold has been trending, here's why I remain bullish on gold prices in 2018. Plus, here's my price target for March...

    Here's Why Gold Prices in 2018 Will Rebound from Here

    In my gold update last week, I showed you two charts that suggested the dollar had become oversold.

    What we've seen since is what I'd call a consolidation in the dollar as sentiment begins to swing back from oversold.

    Gold Prices

    The RSI has been in oversold condition for about two weeks, but the MACD has only recently flattened out. This suggests that the dollar is unlikely to weaken further in the near term, and may still bounce to test around the 90 level.

    In that vein, we can see that gold has room to move lower and still remain within its upward trend channel.

    Gold Prices

    But given seasonal strength and a possible repeat of last year's action, gold could be ending its current weakness very soon, then power higher into the end of February.

    Similar action going forward could still mean some impressive gains for gold this month. I think we could see a run to take out the $1,365 resistance possibly before we cross into March.

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    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 05 Feb 2018 16:09:00 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/02/05/gold-prices-in-2018-will-rebound-despite-last-weeks-pullback/ Why Gold Prices Are Nearing New Highs Thanks to Trump https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/29/why-gold-prices-are-nearing-new-highs-thanks-to-trump/ Gold prices are nearing a two-year high, and I didn't think that would be possible this early in 2018...

    But the key driver of rising gold prices continues to be the sinking dollar, and the Trump administration's mixed signals on the dollar are helping push it down.

    Gold Prices

    Here's what I mean...

    The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell down to 90 on Tuesday, just before U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke the truth to a crowd at Davos: The administration wants a weaker dollar.

    "Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities," Mnuchin said at Davos.

    While Mnuchin's comment was an "open secret" - a weaker dollar is better for American exports - traders still reacted with shock.

    The DXY dropped a full point down to 89 by the end of Wednesday, while the price of gold jumped 2.4% between Monday and Thursday.

    But the next day, U.S. President Donald Trump, who had previously supported a weaker dollar, told CNBC that, "The dollar is going to get stronger and stronger and ultimately I want to see a strong dollar," adding that the treasury secretary's statements had been misconstrued.

    That put a lid on gold prices and kept them from reaching their two-year high.

    But gold testing record-high levels is an excellent sign going forward.

    Here's what else moved gold prices last week, plus my 2018 gold price target...

    A Weakening Dollar Is Gold's Best Friend

    After ending the previous week at a very respectable $1,330 per ounce, the price of gold tested breakout levels.

    On Monday (Jan. 22), gold prices rose as the DXY consolidated. The DXY hovered around 90.50, while the gold price was equally unexciting, moving from $1,332 at the open to $1,333 at the close.

    Tuesday (Jan. 23) brought some new price action, as the DXY began trending lower once again.  By midday, the DXY had worked its way down to 90.20, and gold rose from its $1,336 open to a substantial $1,340.

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    But Mnuchin's comments on Wednesday (Jan. 24) led to a dollar sell-off. The DXY went from 90 in the early morning to 89.2 by 5:00 p.m., losing a stunning 80 basis points in one day. That kicked gold prices higher, causing gold to open all the way up at $1,352 and then to climb to $1,358 to end New York's trading day.

    Here's just how dramatically the Trump administration's dollar policy confusion affected the DXY last week...

    Gold Prices

    But Trump's about-face on the dollar on Thursday (Jan. 25) bolstered the greenback and dented gold. You can see the effect of his comments in the DXY chart, which pops from 88.60 to 89.50 within a couple of hours.

    Naturally, gold sank from $1,362 to $1,347. The "test" of $1,365 was done for now, with more time needed before breaking above that level in a definitive way.

    The dollar would also weaken slightly to consolidate around 89 on Friday (Jan. 26). That allowed gold to open at $1,350, a level it seemed stuck at by late afternoon, as it neared the end of the trading week.

    But make no mistake, these are bullish trends for gold prices in 2018. Here's where I see gold prices heading next...

    My Next Target for Gold Prices in 2018

    Admittedly, the sell-off in the dollar came sooner than I had expected, and I don't see it falling much lower than it has already.

    If we zoom into this chart, you'll see that the dollar's looking quite oversold right now.

    Gold Prices

    While the RSI points to oversold status, the MACD is still trending downward. That could mean a little more weakness for the dollar, perhaps testing the 88 level. But it's already so oversold, I'd be surprised to see it go lower on this attempt.

    Gold Prices

    What's especially interesting about gold's action this week is its run-up to the previous high near $1,365 from mid-2016 and again in September 2017...

    Gold Prices

    While it didn't manage to break above its two-year high, I think the next attempt could see that overhead resistance taken out. Meanwhile, gold seems to be holding its climb within a rising trend channel.

    Even with gold trending higher, I still expect to see some short-term consolidation in gold soon.

    But gold has had a tremendous start to the New Year, and I think the "January Effect," where what happens in the first month tends to carry on through the year, will mean a strong year for the precious metal.

    In that vein, I expect a bit more strength next month, with a run-up to $1,400 maybe even as soon as this summer.

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    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 29 Jan 2018 17:41:08 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/29/why-gold-prices-are-nearing-new-highs-thanks-to-trump/ Our Gold Price Prediction Shows 300% Gains Thanks to These 3 Catalysts https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/29/our-gold-price-prediction-shows-300-gains-thanks-to-these-3-catalysts/ Gold

    Gold prices have risen 5% in the last six weeks, breaking $1,350 an ounce for the first time since June 2016.

    Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth says this recent rise is the beginning of a breakout for the precious metal, one that has massive profit potential for the individual investor.

    Peter's enthusiasm has given us our gold price prediction for 2018. According to Peter, gains of nearly 300% are on the table.

    "I think we'll see $1,400 this year and, eventually, $5,000 before this bull run is over," he says.

    In fact, Peter sees three catalysts driving our gold price prediction in 2018 and beyond.

    Here they are...

    Gold Price Prediction Catalyst No. 1: Higher Inflation

    Peter sees inflation as a key driver of rising gold prices this year.

    For the last six years, inflation has slowly increased, rising from 1.8% to 2.2% between 2015 and 2016. In November 2017, the core CPI inflation rate was 1.7%. The U.S. Federal Reserve is confident this figure will continue to grow, which is why it hiked interest rates last month.

    Historically, as inflation drives down the purchasing power of the U.S dollar, the rate of gold purchases increases.

    Taking advantage of a weaker dollar, international buyers purchase more of the precious metal, driving up the price of gold. This is why gold prices have risen in the last six weeks; as the dollar weakens, global buyers have jumped in and are buying gold "on sale."

    In an effort to keep inflation's rise in check, the Fed is likely to limit the amount of money in circulation by raising interest rates.

    The Fed's actions give us our second catalyst...

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    Gold Price Prediction Catalyst No. 2: Climbing Interest Rates

    Following a rate hike by the Fed, gold often sees robust gains.

    This trend can be traced back at least 30 years and was especially evident in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In 1980, the Fed raised interest rates to 20%. Shortly afterward, the price of gold hit a then-record high of $594 per ounce.

    The same kind of tandem movement is visible in the rate hikes the Fed has issued for the last three Decembers.

    Following each Fed rate hike in December 2015 and December 2016, gold prices rose over the course of the following year, spurred on by higher interest rates. In 2018, the Fed is expected to issue three additional rate hikes, one of which may even take interest rates above 2% for the first time since 2008.

    The impact of these potential rate hikes has investors turning increasingly bullish about gold's prospects. And it's showing in the markets...

    Gold Price Prediction Catalyst No. 3: Fewer Short Positions

    The best indicator of future gold prices is how traders are establishing positions in the market.

    In the last four weeks, the amount of short positions in the gold market has fallen dramatically.

    Over the last year, short positions on gold equities have dropped in number. Take Canada-based gold miner NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE: NG). During the past 12 months, short bet volume on NG has fallen 79%, to 522,400.

    A drop in short bets like that indicates a sentiment shift to bullish from the previous bearish stance for gold.

    As a gold price prediction, short-selling on the Gold BUGS Short Index (NYSE: HUISH) gives an even broader indication. HUISH tracks short bets on mining companies that decline to reduce production of the yellow metal based on movements in the price of gold.

    Over the last 52 weeks, HUISH has declined 6.24%, signaling dropping short interest in the gold sector as a whole.

    While gold is going to run with the bulls long into 2018, we're looking at the best way to generate massive gains now...

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 29 Jan 2018 16:26:17 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/29/our-gold-price-prediction-shows-300-gains-thanks-to-these-3-catalysts/ Peak Gold Is Here – and It Could Make You Rich https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/16/peak-gold-is-here-and-it-could-make-you-rich/ Peak gold represents a watershed event for the yellow metal.

    Gold miners and gold investors alike have anticipated this moment for years.

    Gold

    In short, peak gold is the year in which gold miners extract as much of the yellow metal out of the ground as they ever will.

    Since 2015, production from gold mines has been flattening, according to data from Metals Focus. If the estimates for 2017 prove correct, peak gold happened in 2016. Metals Focus foresees a further decline this year.

    "We're pretty close to [peak gold] if we're not at it," World Gold Council Chair Randall Oliphant told Bloomberg last September at the Denver Gold Forum.

    Peak gold will fundamentally change the gold market by permanently restricting supply. And that in turn will serve as a major catalyst to gold prices and gold mining stocks for... well, forever.

    And right now the signs are pointing beyond a short-term stagnation of supply to a full-blown decline...

    How We Reached the Point of Peak Gold

    Gold miners are always searching for new deposits to replace their depleted mines.

    Spending on such exploration tends to rise when gold prices are high, and miners can afford it, and fall when gold prices decline. It takes 10 to 12 years from the time gold is found to when a gold mine goes into production.

    But a gold mine is productive for 10 to 30 years. Until recently, the exploration cycle had succeeded in finding sufficient gold to keep production rising.

    Right now, gold miners should be reaping the benefit of a spike in exploration spending from 2006 to 2008.

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    But they're not. The gold discovered in that period was barely enough to keep production flat. And the situation is guaranteed to get much worse in the decade ahead.

    While gold miners spent about twice as much on exploration in 2010 to 2012, new gold discoveries plummeted. And over the past year, spending on exploration fell again.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that most of the world's "easy" gold has already been mined...

    Gold Mining Production Is Hitting a Wall

    "We just haven't been finding the new gold deposits, there hasn't been an interest in bringing on as many mines as we have in the past, and a lot of companies have declining production profiles," Oliphant said.

    And it's not just the number of discoveries that's fallen. Gold finds in recent years have been much smaller.

    "If you look back to the 70s, 80s and 90s, in every of those decades the industry found at least one 50+ million ounce gold deposit, at least ten 30+ million ounce deposits and countless five to 10 million ounce deposits. But if you look at the last 15 years, we found no 50 million ounce deposit, no 30 million ounce deposit and only very few 15 million ounce deposits," Pierre Lassonde, chair of gold royalty and income stream company Franco-Nevada Corp. (NYSE: FNV), told German financial newspaper Finanz und Wirtschaft last October.

    Gold

    In addition to the global production numbers, several of the world's leading gold producers are experiencing or expecting significant declines.

    Gold mining production in China, the world's top gold miner, fell 9.8% in the first half of 2017 (the most recent data available), according to the GFMS World Gold Survey. The report also forecast that Chinese gold production would continue to drop for the foreseeable future.

    Meanwhile, MinEx Consulting predicted last year that gold mining in No. 2 producer Australia will peak in 2021, just three years from now. That report estimated a drop in Australian gold production from 11.3 million ounces in 2021 to 6.65 million ounces by 2035.

    But the most telling signal that we've reached peak gold is the collapse of production in South Africa. After peaking at an astonishing 1,000 metric tons in 1970, by 2016, gold production had plunged 83%. Once by far the world's leading gold producer, South Africa is now ranked sixth.

    The shrinking supply is bound to drive prices up as gold-buying demand at least remains steady in 2018 and beyond. This is the perfect storm gold investors have been waiting for.

    Here's where gold prices are headed...

    Our Shocking Gold Price Forecast for 2020

    John Reade, the chief market strategist for the World Gold Council, believes gold prices will continue to rise in 2018. He sees several factors feeding demand, such as improving economic conditions in both China and India, more German buying of bars and coins, and more gold jewelry buying in the United States.

    Coupled with declining supply, gold prices should continue to push higher in 2018. This morning (Tuesday), gold was trading at about $1,335, already up more than 2% on the year.

    Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth thinks gold will end the year between $1,475 and $1,500.

    But while gold keeps edging upward in 2018, Krauth sees much bigger gains lie ahead.

    He has forecast a gold price of $5,246 an ounce by 2020 - just three short years from now. That represents a stunning gain of nearly 300% from the current price.

    "The bears have been unable to quash gold," Krauth said. "That's why I'm so confident in this move to the upside. And it came right after the Federal Reserve hiked rates."

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    Follow me on Twitter @DavidGZeiler and Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorning, Facebook, or LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 16 Jan 2018 16:38:44 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/16/peak-gold-is-here-and-it-could-make-you-rich/ Gold Prices in 2018 Are Surging, with More Gains Coming https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/15/gold-prices-in-2018-are-surging-with-more-gains-coming/ Gold prices in 2018 are already up nearly 2% on the year, and the biggest gains are still on the way...

    According to an indicator called the "January Effect," assets that start strong in early January tend to do well for the remainder of the year.

    That's exactly what's happened with gold prices.gold prices in 2018

    In just the first trading week of 2018, gold prices jumped $17, for a 1.3% gain. Helping it along were hedge funds and other speculators jumping onto the precious metals bandwagon as the U.S. dollar took a hit.

    Now, the price of gold just marked five consecutive weeks of gains, hitting a four-month high in the process.

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    With such impressive momentum on its side, 2018 is shaping up to be a banner year for gold.

    Today, I'm breaking down gold's price movement over the last week, plus I'll show you where gold prices are heading next...

    Gold Prices in 2018 Are Extending 2017's Gains

    The start of the last trading week was flat to negative, as the U.S. dollar continued a small bounce higher.

    On Monday (Jan. 8), gold opened at $1,318, just $1 lower than the previous Friday's (Jan. 5) close. The headwind for the metal was the rising dollar, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rising above 92.3 by 8:00 a.m. It would maintain that level most of the day, yet gold still managed to close $2 higher, at $1,320.

    On Tuesday (Jan. 9), the DXY's rally intensified, rising to 92.6 for a good part of the day. That weighed on gold prices, which opened lower at $1,314 and declined on balance to close out at $1,312.

    But a strong dollar sell-off came on Wednesday (Jan. 10), fed by a rout in the global government bond market.

    A Bloomberg story said the Chinese government may be rethinking its massive hoard of U.S. Treasuries. That news fueled heavy gold buying prior to the New York's market open, which pegged gold prices at $1,322. They then fell, but still managed to close at $1,317.

    But the DXY really began to fall on Thursday (Jan. 11), which you can see right here...

    gold

     

    On Thursday, dollar selling intensified, pushing the DXY from 92.5 at 7:30 a.m. to 91.8 by 10:00 a.m. Gold buyers came back into the market, lifting gold to $1,319 by the open and steadily higher to close at $1,322. With that, the dollar's recent bounce increasingly looked like it was over.

    Then, on Friday (Jan. 12), U.S. consumer price inflation came in slightly above expectations. But the dollar suffered another bout of selling, dropping below 91.5. Gold opened at $1,326 and popped to test $1,340 by late afternoon, as the DXY fell further to lows just below 91.

    As the dollar continues to weaken, the price of gold will continue to rise in 2018.

    Here's my gold price prediction for the next month, plus my 2018 gold price forecast...

    My 2018 Gold Price Prediction

    I think the "January Effect" will see a strong follow-through this year, and gold will surprise many to the upside.

    Despite the dollar's considerable pullback this past week, I'm still not completely convinced its bounce is over. I say this because the futures market in the euro shows speculators are at an extremely bullish level; in fact, they're at a record high, with the euro itself at a three-year high.

    With the euro representing a 57.6% weighting of the dollar index basket, any significant pullback in the currency should help bolster the DXY.  That being said, the dollar has broken down below my 91.5 target (the September low), so further weakness could easily come next. I expect the DXY to fall below 88 soon...

    gold prices

    Meanwhile, gold is starting to look somewhat overbought and ripe for a correction, or at least a brief pause during its rally.

    gold price

    I expect to see the $1,300 level hold as gold's price floor, unless a new bounce for the DXY materializes.

    Next, look for gold to rise above the $1,350 level by the end of February and a challenge of the 2016 high at $1,375 by mid-year. In the second half of 2018, I think gold will test or even breach the $1,400 level.

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    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 15 Jan 2018 18:08:43 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/15/gold-prices-in-2018-are-surging-with-more-gains-coming/ Should I Buy Gold in 2018? https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/04/should-i-buy-gold-in-2018/ Gold prices reached a five-month low of $1,241 on Dec. 12, but they are now up nearly 6.3% since that dip less than a month ago. That has investors wondering, "Should I buy gold in 2018?"

    While every investor has different goals, we think investing in gold in 2018 will be one of the most profitable decisions you can make this year.

    Gold

    In just a bit, we'll show you Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth's latest gold price forecast for 2018, and it's one you can't afford to miss.

    But before we show you Krauth's exact gold price prediction, we want to show you the three main catalysts that will help drive gold prices higher in 2018...

    Gold Price Catalyst No. 3: Inflationary Pressure

    Krauth says rising inflation - and the declining value of the U.S. dollar - will help boost gold prices in 2018.

    Currently, inflation is sitting at 1.6%. While this is lower than the U.S. Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%, it's the second-highest inflation level that we've seen in five years. We're expecting to see inflation trend even higher in 2018, reports Krauth.

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    You see, inflation is the weakening of the U.S. dollar's purchasing power as measured by price changes in various products and services.

    And gold has been a historic hedge against inflation. As the dollar weakens, gold's price typically strengthens.

    As inflation and uncertainty rise in the American economy, investors will turn to gold to protect their wealth, driving up the price of gold.

    Gold Price Catalyst No. 2: Investor Trends

    When investors stop betting against gold, it's a strong indicator that gold prices are heading upward once again.

    And over the past 12 months, the number of gold stock and gold ETF short positions has decreased.

    Just one example of this is NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE: NG), which is a Canadian gold miner. In the past year, the quantity of short positions on NG has plummeted 79% to just over 522,000. This illustrates that investor attitudes have shifted from being bearish toward gold to being bullish once again.

    An even better measurement of the short interest in this precious metal is the Gold BUGS Short Index (NYSE Arca: HUISH). This is an index that tracks short sales on gold mining stocks. Over the past year, HUISH has fallen 11.25%, which indicates a falling interest in shorting the overall gold sector.

    With investors pulling their money out of short positions, we're expecting gold prices to head even higher.

    But the last catalyst is one that will likely have the largest impact on gold price over the next several years...

    Gold Price Catalyst No. 1: The Fed Is Tightening Policy

    Over the past 30 years, any increases in Fed interest rates have resulted in gold price gains. Now, the Fed is tightening monetary policy, with three more rate hikes predicted for 2018.

    Prior to an interest rate bump, you may see the price of gold falter. However, once interest rate increases are announced, the price of the precious metal always rallies. This is supported by data going back to 1986.

    Don't Miss: Our Essential Guide to Buying Gold & Silver

    This reliable trend appears to be materializing once again as we head into a period of increased interest rates courtesy of the Fed.

    The Fed has already hiked rates four times since December 2014, pushing interest rates above 1% in 2017 for the first time since 2008. With three more rate hikes expected in 2018, interest rates could rise above 2% for the first time since 2008.

    The Fed's catalyst will supply gold with consistent gains in 2018.

    And to see just how high the price of gold will rise in 2018 and beyond, here's our bullish price target...

    Should I Buy Gold in 2018? Here's Our Bullish Gold Price Target

    Krauth predicts gold prices could rise between $1,475 and $1,500 by the end of 2018, as these three catalysts continue to push prices higher.

    But Krauth is even more bullish over the long term. His price target for 2020 shows gold reaching $5,246 an ounce, a 298% gain from today's rate.

    Now, there could be short-term pullbacks in the meantime, but the overall trend for gold is clear: Prices are going up.

    Krauth predicts gold will hit the $1,400 level by June 2018. But gold prices could be pushed higher faster if any external events create uncertainty, whether that's a stock market correction, another nuclear test by North Korea, or a revolution in Iran.

    We'll keep you updated on gold prices the whole way with our free Money Morning Profit Alerts service. You can sign up by clicking right here to receive our latest insights on gold as soon as we publish them.

    The Night Trader Has Arrived... It's taken us eight months of negotiations... and now, the moment has finally arrived. A former CEO and Wall Street insider revealed his coveted night trading strategy - a new mechanism for executing trades that set you up for potential $850... or $2,250... or $6,775 paydays - OVERNIGHT. Go here for details.

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 04 Jan 2018 14:46:11 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2018/01/04/should-i-buy-gold-in-2018/ Why Buying Gold Is a Good Idea in 2018 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/22/why-buying-gold-is-a-good-idea-in-2018/ Buying gold is a good idea in 2018 for investors not only looking to protect their wealth, but to also grow it.

    According to Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth, the price of gold will rally significantly next year. He expects gold prices to hit $1,350 by late February 2018. But it's nothing compared to his 2020 gold price target.

    Everyone knows that gold is an excellent hedge during times of uncertainty and political turmoil.

    Events like North Korea's recent missile testing and the continuing controversies in Washington drove the price of gold from $1,150 to as high as $1,350 in September of this year.

    Since then, gold has fallen back down to $1,273, as Bitcoin-mania gripped markets. But Bitcoin's 32% tumble in the second half of December reinforces the case for why Bitcoin is not at all a hedge like gold.

    buying gold is a good idea in 2018

    However, gold is well below its historical highs of $1,800 in 2011. And according to Krauth, both Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve have brought us a gold bottom.

    Today, we'll show you the three reasons we're raising our gold price forecast. Plus, we'll explain whether it's better for you to buy physical gold, gold stocks, or gold ETFs...

    Buying Gold Is a Good Idea in 2018 Because of Rising Inflation

    According to Krauth, inflation will be a major boon for gold prices in 2018.

    The current 1.6% inflation rate is its second-highest level in the last five years. That number is expected to move even higher as the stock market keeps reaching higher highs, says Krauth.

    Inflation is the rate at which the price of general goods and services rises and the purchasing power of the dollar decreases.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    That's why the Fed manages inflation by raising interest rates. This has kept inflation from getting out of control as the stock market rises.

    But there's been a growing sense of uncertainty among investors as the stock market keeps hitting records. Rising inflation often convinces people the economy is growing unstable, which can cause investors to exit the stock market.

    Since assets like gold are considered safe havens during times of economic uncertainty, gold prices will rise as people protect themselves.

    And that's only the first reason we're raising our gold price forecast...

    Buying Gold Is a Good Idea in 2018 Because of Fewer Short Bets

    Reduced short-selling in the gold market also indicates the price of gold will rise over the next three years.

    Over the last year, the number of short positions on gold stocks has fallen. One indicator of short interest is the Gold BUGS Short Index (NYSE: HUISH). This index tracks short-selling on mining firms that specifically refuse to cut gold production based on gold price movements. In the last 12 months, HUISH has dropped 6.24%, indicating short interest in the broad gold sector is falling. This shows a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish for gold.

    Canadian gold mining company NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE: NG) shows an even starker change in sentiment. In the last 12 months, the volume of short bets on the stock declined 79%, to 522,400.

    But wait till you see this next shocking trend, which predicts when gold prices will rise...

    Buying Gold Is a Good Idea in 2018 Because of Rising Interest Rates

    Since 1986, Fed interest rate increases have been followed by strong gold gains.

    Before the rate increases, you'll see gold prices skid. But then, after the actual rate increase, they'll rally. This is supported by 30 years of data.

    four rate hike graphic

    And this trend is happening again right now. The Fed's September meeting showed an interest rate hike wouldn't be likely until December. And gold prices peaked this year at $1,348.80 on Sept. 8, before falling to $1,240.

    When the Fed raised interest rates for the third time in 2017, on Dec. 12, the price of gold shot up from $1,240 to $1,273 today (Dec. 22).

    It's expected that rates will continue rising next year, when Jerome Powell starts as chair of the Fed. If gold prices behave like they have for the past 30 years, then they should continue rallying in step with further rate increases.

    Now that we've run through the three reasons why gold prices will increase in 2018, here's whether you should invest in physical gold, gold stocks, or gold ETFs...

    Physical Gold, Gold Stocks or Gold ETFs?

    If you mainly want to invest in gold to hedge against uncertainty and political turmoil, buy physical gold. If you're interested in collecting coins and rare substances, buy physical gold.

    But before you buy physical gold, you must consider whether you can safely store your gold either in a safe or a bank safety deposit box.

    On the other hand, if you primarily want to invest in gold to profit from its price rally in 2018, investing in gold stocks and ETFs might be best for you. One of our favorite gold stocks is Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG), the biggest gold company in the world.

    Our favorite gold ETF is the Gold SPDR (NYSE ARCA: GLD). It gives investors the best way to benefit from rising gold prices without the expense of managing physical gold.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 22 Dec 2017 19:38:57 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/22/why-buying-gold-is-a-good-idea-in-2018/ Why I'm So Confident the Price of Gold Will Rally in 2018 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/18/why-im-so-confident-the-price-of-gold-will-rally-in-2018/ The price of gold is up thanks to the Federal Reserve, just like we predicted.

    The FOMC raised rates on Dec. 13, as expected. In the days leading up to the meeting, the U.S. dollar rallied, and gold sold off.

    price of gold

    But then both of these reversed direction, with the dollar retreating and the gold price rallying.

    For those of us watching this space carefully, it has played out pretty much as anticipated. Over the past two years, mid-December rate hikes helped launch powerful rallies in gold and gold stocks.

    Act Now: The Night Trader Is Coming (Be Prepared)

    And if history is any guide, by late February, we could see gold rally between 8% and 20% from the gold price today, and gold stocks could surge anywhere from 30% to 40%.

    We'll show you exactly why in just a second, but here's how the Fed boosted gold prices over the last week...

    How the Fed Helped Raise Gold Prices

    The big catalyst for gold prices last week was the Fed's rate hike decision, but here's how gold's price moved over the week.

    The yellow metal opened with a bit of strength on Monday, Dec. 11, at $1,250 an ounce. But the pre-Fed dollar rally would cut gold's strength short.

    The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) had an early morning rally to near 93.90, retreated, then spent the rest of the day climbing toward 93.50. As a result, gold sold off, falling to $1,241 by 3:00 p.m. and ending its NY trading day at that level.

    Don't Miss: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    On Tuesday, gold prices were volatile, as the DXY shot above 94.

    By midday, the DXY had reached back to 94.25. Gold prices opened at $1,242, then sank to an intraday low of $1,237 by 11:00 a.m. Then, on the back of a dollar sell-off that took the DXY down to 94.05 by 5:00 p.m., gold bounced back and closed higher than its open, at $1,244.

    But it was Wednesday that brought out the fireworks.

    The dollar sold off early in the morning, but remained above 94. Then after the Fed's statement, it sold off further, eventually hitting 93.45 around 5:00 p.m. The Fed rate hike was no surprise, but the FOMC's statement, in which members projected tame inflation expectations in the near and medium terms, was unexpected.

    Market observers saw that as having to expect a slower pace of rate hikes over the next year or two, and that hurt the dollar. As a result, gold popped from $1,241 at 8:00 a.m. to a close at $1,255.

    Here's a look at the DXY over the last week, where you can see how the dollar lost value after the FOMC's announcement on Wednesday.

    U.S. Dollar index

    But the dollar would slightly rally on Thursday. Gold opened at $1,257 but retreated over the course of the day to $1,253. For its part, the DXY started out at 93.40 at 8:00 a.m. and rallied to 93.7 by late morning. After a brief pullback, the DXY rallied back to reach 93.65 by 5:00 p.m.

    Then on Friday, gold opened a bit higher as the dollar weakened slightly.

    The yellow metal started the trading day at $1,261, but sold off as the DXY found some renewed strength. By late morning, the DXY was at 93.90 thanks to optimism over tax-cut legislation, pushing the price of gold back down to $1,254. At mid-afternoon, gold was changing hands at $1,256.

    But just as history showed us a mid-December rate hike would boost gold prices, so too will it boost prices through 2018. Here's why we're expecting a gold bull market to really kick off in 2018...

    Why the Price of Gold Is Heading Higher in 2018

    To see what's ahead for gold prices, let's first look at the dollar over the last year...

    US dollar index

    While it's still too early to say, we could have a bearish technical head-and-shoulders formation in the DXY.

    If the DXY closes below 93, then the next level to watch will be 91.5. If it breaks below that, then a renewed dollar bear market will likely start. On the up side, the DXY will have to close above 94, then above 95 to have a chance to continue rallying.

    For its part, gold seems to have stopped falling and put in a strong reversal, also evidenced by both the RSI and MACD momentum indicators.

    Gold - Continuous contract

    But it's the action in gold stocks that's especially encouraging and exciting.

    Looking at the gold stocks to gold price ratio, it seems the equities may have bottomed a few days in advance of the metal.

    GDX:$GOLD

    And here's how gold stocks have done recently, based on the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF's (NYSE Arca: GDX) recent action...

    GDX

    Notice the strong bounce on double the normal volume during the FOMC meeting. The day of the Fed's rate hike, GDX gained an impressive 4.67%.

    If past is prologue, we'll see gold near $1,350 by late February, and the GDX trading closer to $28. This is an exciting time for the price of gold, and investors can turn it into a profit opportunity if they get in at the right time.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 18 Dec 2017 18:07:30 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/18/why-im-so-confident-the-price-of-gold-will-rally-in-2018/ Don't Be Fooled, Gold Prices Are Rising Even as the Fed Hikes Rates https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/15/dont-be-fooled-gold-prices-are-rising-even-as-the-fed-hikes-rates/ The Fed just hiked interest rates on Wednesday (Dec. 13). That has the media abuzz about how it could hurt gold prices, but they are wrong...

    Conventional wisdom in the media says that interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are generally bearish for the price of gold. In fact, a recent Reuters report said that the yellow metal is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates.

    gold prices
    But while the media perpetuates this myth, there is actually very little solid correlation between interest rates and gold prices.

    Don't Miss: He's Broken the Cardinal Rule of Trading - and It's Making Him Richer Every Day

    Just look at what happened to the gold price earlier this week. When the Fed raised its short-term rate by 25 basis points this week, to a range of 1.25% to 1.50%, gold responded with a significant pop higher. Mining stocks jumped by over 3%, making that day's session the biggest daily rally since August.

    We here at Money Morning see gold building on those early gains in 2018, even as the Fed continues to hike rates...

    The 3 Catalysts for Gold Prices

    While the media believe that higher interest rates will pressure gold prices downward, we know gold prices are still going to rise. In fact, there are three catalysts pushing gold prices higher in 2018.

    First, higher interest rates are actually associated with higher gold prices.

    As the Fed continues to slowly raise, or normalize, interest rates, many investors and analysts alike believe it will make other investments more attractive than gold. Specifically, they expect money to flow into bonds and other fixed-income investments and out of gold, which offers no yield at all.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    To the contrary, rising and higher interest rates may in fact be bullish for gold prices. There is evidence that gold prices are completely unresponsive to the Fed's policymaking. Here are just two examples, but they are important ones.

    The gold bull market in the 1970s and 1980s happened even as the Fed tested record-high interest rates. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rallied sharply during the late 1970s, eventually topping 15% in 1981. Gold rallied from about $100 per ounce in 1976 to over $850 per ounce in 1980.

    More recently, gold prices soared from about $260 per ounce in 2001 to the peak in 2011, when the metal topped $1,923 per ounce. During that entire span, the 30-year Treasury yield declined - from 6.5% to 2.6%, meaning gold prices rose even as buyers flocked to bonds.

    Second, gold is traditionally used as a hedge against uncertain times, and we are in the era of uncertainty.

    Right now, with tensions in North Korea, pending tax reform, and the rise of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, the potential for instability abounds.

    That can only support the case for higher gold prices.

    It is not a direct push for higher prices, but it sets the environment where conditions and sentiment become ripe for change. Right now, a recovering economy hides many structural problems. But the next destabilizing event will be a catalyst for gold prices in 2018.

    And that leads us to our final gold price catalyst and 2018 gold price prediction...

    Third, stocks are at historically high valuations.

    While they can run higher, they are already priced at record-high valuations. Any economic downturn or even a sharp correction in stock prices could be the trigger that gets investors moving their money to the safe haven of gold.

    At the same time, investors looking for values may be turned away from expensive stocks and into reliable assets like gold. Gold actually hit a five-month low on Dec. 12, meaning it can be bought at a discount right now.

    And that's what's fueling our bullish gold price prediction for 2018 and beyond...

    Our forecast is not for short-term traders. Rather, we see structural changes, from interest rates to a stealth bull market that quietly gave gold a 20.1% gain from its lows in December 2015 of $1,045.40. It closed Thursday at $1,255.30.

    Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth predicts gold prices will rise to $1,500 by the end of 2018.

    But he's even more bullish over the longer term.

    Krauth predicts gold prices could soar to $5,246 an ounce by 2020. That's more than a 300% gain, even as the Fed is expected to continue hiking interest rates all the way up to 4% by then.

    Don't listen to the media. Don't believe the naysayers who think gold is a dead market. It may not rocket higher next week or next month, but the forces are gathering to nudge it higher as 2018 unfolds.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 15 Dec 2017 17:19:51 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/15/dont-be-fooled-gold-prices-are-rising-even-as-the-fed-hikes-rates/ This "Safe" Investment to Make in 2018 Shows Triple-Digit Gains by 2020 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/14/this-safe-investment-to-make-in-2018-shows-triple-digit-gains-by-2020/ Investors flock to stocks because they potentially offer lucrative growth, like the 55% gains of Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) just in 2017 alone. But stocks can also be volatile.  Trivago NV (Nasdaq: TRVG), for instance, is down 44% on the year, and there's a list of plenty of other underperformers in 2017 that have lost investors' hard-earned money.

    But Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth projects a safe investment to make in 2018 will also provide savvy investors long-term gains...

    safe investments to make in 2018
    We're talking about gold.

    In the short term, he projects gold prices will climb to $1,350 by the end of 2017. From today's prices of $1,252.20, that's a potential profit of 7.8%.

    Not bad, but it gets better.

    By 2020, Krauth projects gold prices will climb more than 300%. Not only will the precious metal protect your portfolio in the next three years against volatility in the stock market, but it can also net you a triple-digit return.

    But don't take my word for it. Here are the three reasons why our Krauth projects gold prices will skyrocket, as well as his exact gold price prediction for 2020....

    Gold Prices Will Climb Triple Digits, Reason No. 3: Inflation

    Krauth says the first reason gold prices could skyrocket in the next three years is because of inflation.

    Inflation is the rate at which the price of services and general goods increase, which means it takes more money to buy the same things.

    For example, the average daily rate of U.S. hotels in January 2011 was $96.64. Six years later, in January 2017, the average daily price was $120.72. That same $96.64 from 2011 would not be enough to cover the cost of a hotel room six years later, even though the service is roughly the same.

    We have inflation thanks to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which prints more money whenever it needs to give the economy a boost. That eventually makes goods and services cost more, weakening the value of the dollar.

    But the Fed can't manipulate gold. There's only a finite amount, and no one institution controls it.

    The uncertainty makes assets like gold a safe haven, and as the demand for gold increases, investors are willing to pay more to own the precious metal.

    Sensing a spike in gold prices, there are actually fewer investors willing to short the precious metal...

    Gold Prices Will Climb Triple Digits, Reason No. 2: Fewer Short Bets

    The second reason Krauth sees gold prices climbing is the number of short positions on gold stocks, which has fallen. That means fewer traders are hoping to make money from falling gold prices, a sign that gold prices are about to rise.

    For example, the short bets on Canadian gold mining company NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE: NG) have declined 79% in the last 12 months.

    And a broader indicator that short interest in gold is decreasing is the Gold BUGS Short Index (NYSE: HUISH).

    This index tracks short selling on mining firms that specifically refuse to cut gold production based on gold price movements. In the last 12 months, the price of HUISH has dropped 12.43%, indicating short interest in the broad gold sector is falling.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    Inflation and short interest are two strong indicators gold prices can climb, but wait until you see the third...

    Why Gold Prices Will Climb Triple Digits, Reason No. 1: Interest Rates

    Over the last 30 years, Fed interest rate hikes have been followed by strong gains by gold.

    Now, it's important to note that gold prices can skid before a rate hike. But after the actual rate increase, they will rally.

    You can see in the chart below that this is supported by 30 years of data.

    four rate hikes, four gold rallies

    It looks like history will repeat itself, as gold prices peaked after the Fed's Sept. 8 meeting. Gold prices climbed to $1,349.90 on Sept. 8, but prices right now are hovering around $1,250.

    If gold prices behave like they have since 1986, then they should rally following the December rate hike.

    Now that you know the three reasons why gold prices are set to skyrocket, here's our triple-digit price target for 2020...

    Our Bold 2020 Gold Price Target Shows Gains of More Than 300%

    Krauth's newest gold price forecast has the precious metal soaring to $5,246 an ounce by 2020.

    From today's prices of $1,252.20, that's a potential profit of 318.94%.

    "The bears have been unable to quash gold," Krauth said. "That's why I'm looking for the next big move to the upside, and it could come right after the Fed hikes rates."

    If history is any indication, the markets are set up for a bull run.

    Why gold is due for an historic bull run now

    Although currently down 7.14% from this year's high of $1,348 per ounce on Sept. 8, every gold bull market has offered astounding returns. The median return and duration of each bull market over the last 47 years has been 451.4% and 41 months, respectively.

    After the Fed raised interest rates in December, the price of gold can really take off.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on TwitterFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 14 Dec 2017 21:51:34 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/14/this-safe-investment-to-make-in-2018-shows-triple-digit-gains-by-2020/ Now's the Perfect Time to Buy Gold Stocks for 2018 – Here's Our Pick https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/13/nows-the-perfect-time-to-buy-gold-stocks-for-2018-heres-our-pick/ gold stocks
    Some pundits will tell you that gold is dead, but the market has a different point of view. Let's cut right to the chase - gold is going higher in 2018, according to Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth.

    And that will be a major catalyst for gold stocks in 2018...

    Despite a few headwinds, gold is actually in a bullish trend. Since bottoming in 2015 at $1,045.40, it's now 19.1% higher. And that includes the recent weakness seen over the past few months.

    Since its major bottom in 2001, Krauth sees the current path for gold prices as being very similar to that of the late 1970s. It was the dawn of what would become a great secular bull market, taking the metal to a 700% gain by the peak set in 1980.

    Of course, every market ebbs and flows, and gold soon entered a bear phase. In 2001, that phase ended with gold trading at $255.00. Another great bull run took it to $1,923.70 in 2008, for a 650% windfall.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    As you can see, gold has the ability for huge long-term gains.

    Right now, after a major correction and consolidation, gold sits on the cusp of yet another big run higher. And that's a major catalyst for the best gold stocks to buy for 2018...

    Here's Why We're So Bullish on Gold Prices in 2018

    Gold is a global commodity and is crucial for its ability to store value and its use in manufacturing. Therefore, we have to look at the metal from the view point of investors everywhere. That means looking at its price in terms of other currencies.

    For example, gold priced in euros actually bottomed in late 2013 and is up 24% through today.

    Gold priced in Australian dollars bottomed in 2014 and is also up 24% through today.

    India is one of the largest buyers of gold on the planet for its huge gold jewelry market. Gold priced in Indian rupees bottomed in late 2015 and is up 14%.

    Finally, gold priced in Japanese yen had a rather mild correction after peaking in 2013. However, for comparison, it's now up 11% from its 2015 low.

    Gold stock price action is another reason to look for a rebound. The ratio of gold stock prices to the metal itself also ebbs and flows and often bottoms just ahead of major lows in the metal.

    The stocks to metal ratio is still historically low, and a chart of the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS stock index for gold itself bottomed in late 2000, late 2008, and late 2015. Each time, gold bottomed within two or three months' time, leading to a multi-year advance.

    In the first half of 2018, Krauth sees gold reaching $1,400.00, which is just 12% higher from its current level. And by the end of the year, he thinks gold will be closer to $1,475-$1,500. That's about 18% higher from here.

    That makes right now a good time for investors to pick up shares in gold stocks. Krauth thinks they are already undervalued.

    And this is the pick that Money Morning experts are most bullish about...

    Here's the Best Gold Stock to Buy for 2018

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon wrote about Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) back in March saying it was - and still is - the best gold stock to own.

    Patalon believes this Canadian heavyweight is doing all the right things to facilitate strong growth. Over the past 18 months, the company acquired Kaminak Gold Corp. for $373 million, secured a 19.9% stake in Triumph Gold Corp. (CVE: TIG) for $4.75 million, and partnered with

    the giant Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) in a gold and copper deposit in Chile.

    As you can see, Goldcorp is being aggressive and thinking long term.

    But it is not resting on its laurels. The company just announced the details of next year's #DisruptMining innovation expo, a "Shark Tank"-style challenge that brings thousands of entrepreneurs, engineers, scientists, and inventors from all over the world to Canada for a live competition.

    The prize is about a $780,000 (or $1 million Canadian) investment to the winner of the challenge for a proof of concept at one of Goldcorp's mines, or direct investment in the winning technologies, according a Nov. 27 press release.

    Hosting the competition allows Goldcorp to get a first-hand look (and possibly a leading role, with an investment) at the most cutting-edge technologies designed to "disrupt" the mining sector today.

    While it's certainly a smart move on Goldcorp's part, it's not the company's only effort to get ahead.

    "The company has pledged over the next five years to increase its output, its production, and its reserves by about 20%," Patalon said. It plans to reach this goal with a three-point plan of boosting earnings, slashing costs, and continuing to line up growth opportunities as it already has.

    "Just to be clear, I don't see the stock skyrocketing from here as a result of this challenge," said Patalon. "But that doesn't mean you shouldn't look to invest for the long term."

    "This challenge is just another example of how strong and innovative the company is, and I'm expecting even more great things from this company over the next decade."

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out this research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 13 Dec 2017 16:33:43 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/13/nows-the-perfect-time-to-buy-gold-stocks-for-2018-heres-our-pick/ My 2018 Gold Forecast Looks a Lot Like the 1970s https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/11/my-2018-gold-forecast-looks-a-lot-like-the-1970s/ Pie-in-the-sky gold predictions are a dime a dozen at this time of year - calls for gold to hit $3,000... $6,500... $10,000 or even more.

    Granted, most of these targets require at least the partial collapse of human civilization to work, although I have seen one or two loosely rooted in esoteric concepts like "economics," "monetary policy," and "central banking."

    Now... I'd be the first one to line up and sell an ounce of my gold holdings for $10,000 (provided the apocalypse hasn't happened), but we can't very well dream our way into profits; we've got to be realistic.

    Here in the real world, gold is pushing against some stiffening headwinds, although you'll see they're hardly insurmountable.

    After all, we've reaped tidy gold gains of 11% this year. I've got some great, historical charts you need to see that will prove my forecast is honest.

    Because, as it turns out, the yellow metal's future looks great from here...

    Why You've Got to Look at the Great Secular Gold Bulls

    When I was asked to put together my forecast for gold prices in 2018, the charts reminded me of gold's previous secular bull performance.

    In my view, the gold bull market started back in April 2001, when gold hit a multi-decade low near $260.

    10 years later, gold hit a peak price of $1,900.

    SPOTTED: The "Halley's Comet of gold investing" pattern that's only appeared twice in 20 years. Click here for details...

    Then it entered a multi-year correction/consolidation phase, which eventually brought us to where we are today.

    The naysayers will tell you that gold is finished; kaput. Gold bears believe we've seen the peak, and it's only downwards from there.

    But history tells us something very different.

    A look even further back, at the classic 1970s gold bull, shows a mid-bull cyclical correction that, once ended, helped launch a massive return to bullish action and much higher prices.

    That was a run for the record books.

    And you'll see, it's gold's past that helps us lay the groundwork for a reasonable forecast of what it might do in the next year.

    When Gold Delivered a Decade of Steady Gains

    Between September 2001 and September 2011, gold managed to produce a compound annual gain of 21.46%.

    That's what a gain from $272 to $1,900 will do.

    That's a terrific performance, but gold had pulled off another impressive achievement: During that decade, the highly prized metal managed a positive return every single calendar year.

    To my knowledge, no other asset has ever accomplished such a feat.

    But from the 2011, $1,900 peak to the December 2015 low of $1,050, it was nearly a 45% drop. That mirrors very closely the 1974-1976 correction that cut gold's price roughly in half, from $200 to $100.

    From there, gold rose by a phenomenal 800%, peaking at $800, over a span of about three-and-a-half years.

    At its current level, near $1,300, gold has already gained almost 24% in the nearly two years since bottoming.

    In my view, we've just recently exited the mid-seventies-style mid-bull correction phase.

    And that means, at the cusp of 2018, we're just getting started on the second half of an epic bull market.

    And here's the proof...

    Everywhere You Look, There's a Bullish Signal

    I recently told you that a rising gold price in multiple major currencies was a strong signal that gold was in a bull market.

    Here's what that looks like over the past decade.

    2018 gold forecast

    gold vs. major currencies
    Suffice it to say gold is up over the last 10 years, and in some currencies, it's dramatically higher. And that includes the cyclical bear market of 2011-2015.

    So I fully expect this bull market to power ahead.

    Another powerful technical indicator that gold is heading higher is its price chart action.

    You see, the gold price has been forming a large wedge since 2008.

    November gold price
    This past September, gold rose above the wedge, reaching $1,350 before pulling back. But it has managed to stay above that line since, and that's bullish.

    A clear and sustained push above $1,300 should help kick off a new rally to $1,400.

    That's good news for the folks who own gold... and the folks who get it out of the ground.

    Buying Gold Stocks Look Great, Too

    Gold stocks relative to the gold price are cheap. Here's proof.

    The gold-stocks-to-gold ratio reached a dramatic low of 0.15 back in the late 90s, when this sector was bottoming.

    HUI to gold ratio
    Yet, in late 2015, the ratio dropped even lower, to 0.1, before dramatically reversing and rapidly spiking to 0.2. It has since pulled back to 0.15, making gold stocks a tremendous bargain.

    But equally significant is how gold stocks have outperformed gold since both bottomed in late 2015/early 2016.

    HUI vs. Gold
    Since late January 2016, gold is up a respectable 15%, but gold stocks have radically outpaced, with a 57% gain.

    That's a hugely positive sign: When gold stocks rise faster than gold, it typically portends higher gold prices in the future.

    Look for More Double-Digit Gold Profits from Here

    So, what does all this mean for the gold price in 2018?

    With nearly two years behind us since gold hit a low of $1,050 in December 2015, I'm convinced that we've entered the second half of this secular gold bull market.

    After impressive gains in 2016 but more a more modest advance so far in 2017, I think gold could regain traction next year, once the dollar resumes its downward trend and a long-overdue market correction rears its head.

    In the first half of 2018, I think we can see gold test $1,400, which is just 7.7% higher from its current level.

    By the end of 2018, I think gold could be closer to $1,475-$1,500. That's about 14% higher from here.

    Up Next: Rare, Perfect "Gold Anomaly" Could Go Big

    Conditions are ideal right now to learn how to make this precious metal play that could bring "windfall-style" potential gains. Read on...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

     

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 11 Dec 2017 11:00:34 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/11/my-2018-gold-forecast-looks-a-lot-like-the-1970s/ Here's Our Shocking New Gold Price Forecast for 2020 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/06/heres-our-shocking-new-gold-price-forecast-for-2020/ Gold prices hit a four-month low yesterday (Tuesday) after languishing near $1,275 since the start of October. Despite the pullback, there are three major gold catalysts everyone is overlooking.

    That's why Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth just released a shocking new gold price forecast for 2020.

    Krauth believes gold prices could rise another 6.7%, to $1,350, before the year is out. But that's nothing compared to his new gold price target for 2020.

    gold price forecast

    Normally, traders migrate to the precious metal during times of uncertainty and political turmoil. Events like North Korea's recent missile testing and the continuing controversies in Washington would normally have served as catalysts for gold prices.

    But as the stock market continues setting record highs in 2017, gold is being ignored. And that's a huge mistake.

    Investors are missing three major catalysts that will lead to gold's bull market through 2020.

    URGENT: A completely unique gold play is forming in the markets. And it's so rare that it's only the third time in 20 years that it's happened. If you get in now, you could see a share of upwards of $13 billion in cash windfalls. Read more.

    Here are the three reasons why we're raising our gold price forecast - and the shocking new price target we've set for 2020...

    2020 Gold Price Forecast Catalyst No. 3: Rising Inflation

    According to Krauth, inflation will be a huge boon for gold prices through 2020.

    The current 1.6% inflation rate is the second-highest level in the past five years. That number is forecast to move even higher as the stock market keeps hitting record highs, according to Krauth.

    Inflation is the rate at which prices of general goods and services increase and the purchasing power of the dollar decreases.

    That's why the U.S. Federal Reserve manages inflation by raising interest rates. This has kept inflation from getting out of control as the stock market rises.

    But there's been a growing sense of uncertainty among investors as the stock market keeps hitting record highs. Rising inflation often convinces people the economy is growing unstable, which can cause investors to exit the stock market.

    Since assets like gold are considered safe havens during times of economic uncertainty, gold prices will rise as people protect themselves.

    And that's only the first gold price catalyst...

    2020 Gold Price Forecast Catalyst No. 2: Fewer Short Bets

    Reduced short selling in the gold market also indicates the price of gold will rise over the next three years.

    Over the last year, the number of short positions on gold stocks has fallen. One of these stocks is a Canadian gold mining company called NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE: NG). In the last 12 months, the volume of short bets on the stock declined 79%, to 522,400. This shows a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish for gold.

    A broader indicator of short interest is the Gold BUGS Short Index (NYSE: HUISH). This index tracks short selling on mining firms that specifically refuse to cut gold production based on gold price movements. In the last 12 months, HUISH has dropped 6.24%, indicating short interest in the broad gold sector is falling.

    But wait till you see this shocking trend...

    2020 Gold Price Forecast Catalyst No. 1: Rising Interest Rates

    Since 1986, U.S. Fed interest rate increases have been followed by strong gold gains.

    Before the rate increases, you'll see gold prices skid. But then, after the actual rate increase, they'll rally. This is supported by 30 years of data.

    four rate hike graphic

    And this trend appears to be happening again right now. The Fed's September meeting showed an interest rate hike wouldn't be likely until December. And gold prices peaked this year at $1,348.80 on Sept. 8, before falling to $1,275, where they've been at ever since.

    If gold prices behave like they have for the past 30 years, then they should rally following a December rate hike and continue rallying in step with further rate increases.

    Now that we've run through the three catalysts for gold prices, here's exactly where we see them heading by 2020...

    Our Gold Price Forecast and Price Target for 2020

    Krauth's newest gold price forecast has the precious metal soaring to $5,246 an ounce by 2020.

    "The bears have been unable to quash gold," Krauth said. "That's why I'm looking for the next big move to the upside, and it could come right after the Fed hikes rates."

    If history is any indication, gold prices could rise a tremendous 314% over the next three years from its current price of $1,267.

    gold price prediction

    Although currently down 6% from this year's high of $1,348 per ounce on Sept. 8, gold prices are still in a bull market. After hitting a five-year low of $1,056 in November 2015, gold staged a 23% turnaround the following year. Even if gold prices see a dip in 2018, it won't be enough to end their current bull market.

    Since 1970, every gold bull market has offered astounding returns. The median return and duration of each bull market over the last 47 years has been 451.4% and 41 months, respectively.

    After the Fed raises interest rates in December, the price of gold can really take off.

    Rare Gold Anomaly: The first time it created $1.25 billion in new wealth virtually overnight. The second time, it created a cash windfall of $6 billion - both times making in-the-know investors flat-out millionaires. And it's about to happen again, only this time we expect the cash windfall to reach $13 billion. If you take advantage of this rare gold anomaly right now, you, too, could walk away a millionaire. Details here...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 06 Dec 2017 18:04:52 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/06/heres-our-shocking-new-gold-price-forecast-for-2020/ Gold Prices Will Jump After the December Fed Meeting https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/04/gold-prices-will-jump-after-the-december-fed-meeting/ Gold prices haven't been making headlines to compete with record-high stocks or Bitcoin reaching $10,000. But that's all about to change...

    The price of gold has appeared stagnant since October.

    Normally, traders flock to the precious metal during times of uncertainty and instability. That's why it was surprising that not even another ballistic missile fired by North Korea was enough to rally gold prices.

    gold bars

    The precious metal continues to trade in a narrow trading range about $25 wide.

    Over the entire month of November, gold barely moved below $1,270 or above $1,295.

    But the gold price has been stealthily making a distinct series of higher lows ever since its most recent bottom in late October.

    And the upcoming December FOMC meeting could be the catalyst gold needs to boost it even higher by the end of the year...

    How Gold Prices Have Been Sneakily Rising

    Before we get into gold's next major catalyst and our gold price forecast, here's how gold has performed over the last week...

    Gold looked strong enough to start out the week, as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - a measure of the dollar's value against other currencies - continued to weaken.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    The precious metal started climbing overnight, from Sunday into Monday (Nov. 27) morning, as traders returned from the extended Thanksgiving holiday. The DXY backed off from about 92.80 to flirt with 92.50 just after 9:00 a.m. That helped power gold to open at $1,295, then peak at $1,298 by 9:00 a.m. But the dollar rallied, bringing the DXY back to 92.9 by mid-afternoon, and gold retreated to close at $1,294.

    On Tuesday, gold held its own despite a continued dollar rally. The DXY rallied through most of the day, from 92.85 to 93.25. Still, gold managed to hold its own. It opened for trading at $1,295 and gave up just $2, to close at $1,293.

    Wednesday would be less kind to gold. It opened at $1,294 but immediately sold off as the DXY managed to rally even higher. That took the DXY to a morning peak at 93.4, and gold dropped to $1,283 by 10:00 a.m. and remained there for the rest of the day.

    Here's a glance at the DXY this past week.


    On Thursday, the last trading day in November, the precious metal opened at $1,280 but dropped to $1,276 within the hour, even as the DXY was heading south. Interestingly, the DXY's sell-off to 92.75 ended at 11:00 a.m., and then reversed. By the afternoon, the DXY was back above 93. Gold bottomed at $1,270 around 1:00 p.m. as more buyers stepped in, pulling it back to $1,275 by the close.

    Then on Friday, the DXY managed to climb a little higher still. Gold initially held its own before breaking out after breaking news in Washington, D.C. That was a report that former Trump national security advisor Michael Flynn would plead guilty about lying to the FBI and cooperate with special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election. Gold immediately tacked on a $19 premium, from $1,271 around 10:30 a.m. to peak at $1,290 by 11:30 a.m. The DXY retreated to 92.9, helping gold to hold the $1,280 level through to 5 p.m.

    Even though gold prices have been trading within a narrow range, they've slowly been rising. That's why my gold price prediction is especially bullish on the metal after the next Federal Reserve meeting...

    Where Gold Prices Will Go After the December Fed Meeting

    The Fed is expected to hike interest rates during the FOMC meeting on Dec. 15, and that's going to move the value of the dollar.

    Let's take a look at the dollar's value leading up to the next rate hikes.

    Cash Settle ICE

    While the dollar did back off from its September and October rally, it could be simply digesting those gains before heading a bit higher. As the market looks for the Fed to hike rates in December, the DXY could look to test the 96-97 level, weighing on gold.

    But gold continues to form a narrowing wedge (green lines).

    Continuous Contract CME

    It's also been holding a rising trend line (orange line) and has managed to remain above its 200-day moving average.  Meanwhile, there's plenty of room for the RSI and MACD momentum indicators to rise further.

    The bears have been unable to quash gold. That's why I'm looking for the next big move to the upside, and it could come right after the Fed hikes rates. We could still see gold prices reach $1,350 before New Year's.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 04 Dec 2017 18:03:00 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/12/04/gold-prices-will-jump-after-the-december-fed-meeting/ What's Next for the Price of Gold in December 2017 https://moneymorning.com/2017/11/27/whats-next-for-the-price-of-gold-in-december-2017/ On the surface, this week's release of the last FOMC meeting minutes pushed the price of gold closer to the all-important $1,300 level once again.

    But the effect was short-lived, and over the next couple of days, gold prices retreated back to around the $1,290 level.

    Despite the limited reaction by gold, perhaps more important was the dollar's response.

    The market seems to have focused on some Federal Reserve policymakers highlighting concerns over "persistently weak inflation data," possibly leading to a "decline in longer-term inflation expectations or may have done so already."

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    That smacked the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) down 150 basis points over the past four trading days. As it turns out, the market's suddenly become a lot less certain of a December Fed rate hike, and it is likely factoring in an even more dovish rate-hiking cycle than before.

    The DXY's price action bodes poorly for the dollar and bodes well for precious metals. We'll have to watch the dollar closely to see if its recent counter-trend rally has, in fact, come to an end.

    But before we get into the outlook for gold prices, here's how the precious metal trended last week...

    Why the Price of Gold Was Mostly Flat Last Week

    Gold faced a strong headwind on Monday, Nov. 20, as the DXY launched a strong rally. That took it from around 93.6 in the very early morning to near 94.10 by early afternoon. That strength stifled the price of gold, which opened at $1,292 but rapidly sold off to $1,276 by 1:00 p.m. As the dollar remained high, gold was unable to regain any ground and closed at $1,276.

    On Tuesday, gold moved sideways along with the dollar. Gold opened at $1,277, then rose to $1,282 by 10:00 a.m., but sold back down to close at $1,280. All the while, the DXY traded in a narrow range, hovering around 94 most of the day.

    Then on Wednesday, as if sensing FOMC discord and a heightened possibility of lower rates for longer, the DXY began to sell off well ahead of the 2:00 p.m. minutes release. The DXY would tumble from 93.85 at 8:00 a.m. to 93.25 by 5:00 p.m., shaving a full 60 basis points off in just nine hours. That would pump up gold prices, which opened at $1,284, peaked $10 higher at 3:00 p.m., at $1,294, and then backed off to $1,292 by 5:00 p.m.

    Here's the week's DXY action...

    price of gold

    On Thursday, the dollar consolidated low around 93.15 for pretty much the entire day.  Consequently, gold looked pretty quiet too. It opened at $1,291, then, thanks to a shortened Thanksgiving trading day, ended at that same level.

    On Friday, the dollar would face another bout of weakness, selling off from around 7:00 a.m. at 93.10 to 92.70 by 11:00 a.m. As we reached mid-afternoon, the DXY was only slightly higher, at 92.8, while gold, which had opened at $1,288, closed the festive week at that very same level.

    So, where does all this leave gold as we head into this year's home stretch?

    Let's first look at the dollar.

    What's Next for the Price of Gold as We Head Toward 2018

    Since early November, the dollar has put in an interim top and then sold off to close below its 50-day moving average. It also hit a two-month low in the process, as the euro rallied.

    Is the dollar's rally over? It may be a little early to say, but the Relative Strength Index and moving average convergence divergence momentum indicators are pointing to more weakness.

    gold prices

    If in fact we've seen the last bout of strength in the DXY, then gold could stand to benefit from a new leg down for the dollar.

    Interestingly, the gold/dollar index ratio has not violated its uptrend support line.

    price of gold today

    This is one of my favorite indicators, because it prices gold in the basket of currencies that makes up the U.S. DXY.

    After an impressive run early in the first half of 2017, followed by more strength in late August/early September and a subsequent high consolidation, gold looks primed for a new rally.

    price of gold now

    If the DXY falters here and tests lower levels, look for gold to reach for its 2017 high, near $1,350.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 27 Nov 2017 20:02:29 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/11/27/whats-next-for-the-price-of-gold-in-december-2017/ Our New Bullish Predictions for Gold Prices and Gold Stocks Before 2018 https://moneymorning.com/2017/11/13/our-new-bullish-predictions-for-gold-prices-and-gold-stocks-before-2018/ Bulls and bears kept pulling gold prices in different directions over the last month. Despite rising 0.4% last week, the price of gold is down 2.1% since Oct. 13.

    The U.S. dollar's rally has been the primary reason for gold's decline. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - which compares the dollar to other currencies like the yen and euro -  is up from 93.09 on Oct. 13 to 94.52 today (Monday, Nov. 13).

    But the gold price action is starting to look constructive again...

    We know that gold prices tend to put in an interim bottom in October each year since this secular bull market began in 2001. For instance, the metal plunged to a four-month low of $1,252 on Oct. 7, 2016.

    Also, if we look at gold's overall positive years since 2001, we see the average return on gold stocks between late October and late February is an impressive 15%. Given how the Dow Jones Gold Mining Index - which tracks gold mining stocks - is up 10.4% in 2017, I think these companies have much more room to run through next February.

    And any reasonable correction in stocks could help to trigger such bullish action. That's why, today, I'll share with you my bold forecast for both gold prices and gold stocks through the end of the year.

    First, let's check out last week's gold performance - and what that says about the price of gold moving forward...

    Gold Prices Climb 0.4% Last Week (Nov. 3-10)

    After falling to a near three-month low of $1,269 on Friday, Nov. 3, the gold price opened slightly higher on Monday, Nov. 6, at $1,271. But it surged higher from there, as the DXY sold off from 94.94 to 94.76. This boosted gold by 1%, to settle at $1,282.

    Tuesday saw gold give some of that back as the DXY rebounded to 94.91. Gold prices fell in response, opening lower, at $1,276, and trading near that level the rest of the session. That marked a 0.5% decline from the previous close.

    The price of gold saw renewed strength on Wednesday even as the dollar traded in the 94.90 range for the entire day. The metal opened at $1,281 and moved 0.6% higher, to $1,284, by the close.

    This chart shows how the DXY trended last week...

    gold prices

    On Thursday, Nov. 9, the metal continued higher on news of Senate Republicans proposing a tax overhaul that would delay Trump's suggested corporate tax cuts. This hit the dollar pretty hard, with the DXY falling from 94.87 to 94.44 by the end of the session. Gold rallied to $1,288 for a gain of 0.3% on the day.

    But the gold price plummeted on Friday, completely reversing the gains notched over the previous two sessions. Just after 11:10 a.m., nearly 40,000 gold futures contracts - each representing 100 ounces of gold - were mysteriously sold.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    This sent prices plunging by 1.1% over the course of the day. Despite gold settling lower that day at $1,274, it still posted a weekly gain of 0.4%.

    Gold prices today (Monday, Nov. 13) are recovering slightly. They're currently up 0.3% and trading at $1,278.

    So, where does all this leave gold as we head into the home stretch for 2017? I still think the gold market - including both the gold price and gold stocks - are set for a rally in the final month and a half of the year.

    Here's our bullish gold forecast for November and December 2017...

    Here's How High Gold Prices and Gold Stocks Are Heading Before 2018

    Consider this: At $1,278, the gold price is now up 10.9% since the start of this year. That's not too far behind the S&P 500's 15.4%.

    And if we take a look at a chart of the gold price this year, we can find some greater perspective...

    gold price

    The 11% surge from the Dec. 15 bottom to the end of February was intense. The follow-through has also been impressive despite the obvious whipsaw pattern indicated by the price peaks in February, April, June, September, and October...

    price of gold

    Looking at the past couple of weeks in the chart above, it seems like momentum is building. The Relative Strength Index and moving average convergence divergence - which measure the momentum of gold price movement - have been confirming this uptrend and have a ways to go before reaching anywhere close to overbought. Right now, the support level seems to be holding around $1,270.

    Not to mention, a quick look at the CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) shows it's seeing a considerable bounce from all-time lows...

    gold price today

    Gold stocks tend to move higher with the GVZ. So, if this GVZ rebound continues, we could also get a similar bounce for gold stocks.

    With all of that in mind, I expect the price of gold to retest the Sept. 12 high of $1,351 before the end of the year. That would be a 5.7% gain from today's price of $1,278.

    And if gold stocks follow the GVZ higher, a gain of 18% could be in the cards before the end of 2017.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorning, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 13 Nov 2017 17:53:51 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/11/13/our-new-bullish-predictions-for-gold-prices-and-gold-stocks-before-2018/ My Bullish Gold Price Prediction for December 2017 https://moneymorning.com/2017/11/06/my-bullish-gold-price-prediction-for-december-2017/ The gold price has remained flat over the last two weeks, with daily movement last week mostly alternating between gains and losses. However, the metal eventually ended the week with a small 0.2% loss.

    U.S. President Donald Trump announcing on Nov. 2 that Jerome "Jay" Powell would be the next Federal Reserve chair wasn't even enough to boost gold prices. Perhaps it's because Powell - widely known as neither hawkish nor dovish when it comes to interest rates - likely won't do anything unexpected in his new position.

    For now, that's kept the stock market humming higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.5% since Thursday's announcement. Another factor pushing stocks up has been the expected Fed rate hike in December, which economists predict has a 96.7% chance of happening.

    However, I don't expect a December rate hike to happen.

    But the high odds of a bump to the 1.25% to 1.5% range have still kept the U.S. dollar strong. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - which measures the dollar against the euro, yen, and several other currencies - is up from 93.80 to 94.77 over the last month.

    I don't think the dollar's rally is over yet, so the price of gold's gains will stay limited for now. But selling exhaustion may be settling in, and we could be gearing up for a surprise rally before the end of the year thanks to a seasonal push.

    Today, I'm going to show you my bullish target for the gold price by the end of December 2017. First, let's recap the metal's performance last week...

    Gold Price Posts a 0.2% Decline Last Week (Oct. 27 - Nov. 3)

    After closing at $1,272 on Friday, Oct. 27, gold prices opened lower, at $1,270, on Monday, Oct. 30. But the DXY weakened over the course of the session, from 94.92 to 94.56, which bumped the metal higher. It eventually closed the day at $1,278 for a 0.5% gain.

    The gold price erased the previous session's gain on Tuesday despite the dollar hardly moving. The DXY traded around 94.56 and eventually ended the session slightly lower, at 94.55. That wasn't enough for gold traders, as prices fell back to $1,271 by the close for a 0.5% loss. With that loss, gold posted a monthly loss of 1.1% in October.

    For reference, here's a look at the DXY's movement last week...

    gold price

    On Wednesday, Nov. 1, both the dollar and price of gold managed to bounce higher, with the DXY rallying toward 94.80 by the close. This didn't deter gold buyers, who stepped in and boosted prices 0.5% to $1,277 by the close.

    The metal had a mostly uneventful day on Thursday, as both gold prices and the DXY traded in a narrow range. Despite falling to 94.50 at the open, the index fluctuated between 94.60 and 94.75 most of the day. This capped gold's movement, which ended the day just 0.08% higher, at $1,278.

    Renewed interest in the dollar on Friday, following Jay Powell's Fed chair announcement, boosted the DXY to test the 95 level. That inevitably weighed on the gold price, which dropped 0.7% to $1,269 by the close. With that, gold logged a weekly loss of 0.2% from Friday, Oct. 27.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    But the price of gold today (Monday, Nov. 6) is back up to its highest level in more than two weeks. It's trading up 1.1% to $1,283 - the highest since Oct. 19.

    I remain cautiously bullish on gold as we head toward the end of the year. This is mostly due to stocks charging higher, which means they may be due for a sobering correction. Also, the gold price and gold stocks normally hit seasonal lows in late October before rallying higher.

    Gold prices could still push much higher by the end of December, even if we see more weakness over the next few weeks.

    Here's my specific gold price prediction for the rest of 2017...

    This Is How High the Gold Price Could Reach Before 2018

    As I've said in past columns, the dollar continues to define gold's narrative.

    But the dollar's rally from 93.08 to 94.75 so far in Q4 hasn't dragged gold down more than 0.2%...

    gold prices

    A small move lower, perhaps to the 200-day moving average of $1,261 (indicated by the green line above), may be the bottom that sets the stage for a test of $1,310.

    At the same time, gold stocks - indicated by the Gold Bugs Index below, which tracks gold mining companies - look like they may be setting themselves up for a similar rebound...

    price of gold

    I predict both the Gold Bugs Index and gold prices to test their September highs. Those would be the $1,351 level for gold prices and the 219.61 level for the Gold Bugs Index, marking respective gains of 5.3% and 16.1%.

    In other words, these trends indicate we're set for a strong finish to 2017 for the gold sector.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 06 Nov 2017 21:28:27 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/11/06/my-bullish-gold-price-prediction-for-december-2017/ World Financial Markets Still Impacted By Dovish ECB Meeting https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/27/world-financial-markets-still-impacted-by-dovish-ecb-meeting/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, on generally upbeat corporate earnings that were reported late this week.  U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are slightly lower and hit a three-week low overnight, amid a lack of risk aversion in the marketplace. Gold and silver bears have downside technical momentum.

    The currency markets are still feeling the effects of Thursday's European Central Bank monetary policy meeting, which resulted in no interest rate changes from the ECB. However, the central bank said it is reducing its monthly bond-buying program amount by half, but is extending the timeframe of the bond buying. ECB Chief Mario Draghi's press conference sounded a dovish tone on monetary policy, which has pressured the Euro currency to a three-month low Friday morning. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index pushed to a three-month high Friday. The marketplace is a bit unsettled by the appearance of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and ECB monetary policy that are diverging.

    Traders and investors are awaiting what is the most important U.S. economic report of this week: Friday morning's advance third-quarter GDP estimate. The number is expected to come in at up 2.7% versus the second-quarter reading of up 3.1%.

    The other key "outside market" on Friday morning finds Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly lower and trading above $52.00 a barrel. Oil prices remain in a near-term uptrend.


    Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 27 Oct 2017 12:07:24 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/27/world-financial-markets-still-impacted-by-dovish-ecb-meeting/ Many World Markets On Hold Ahead of ECB Meeting Results https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/26/many-world-markets-on-hold-ahead-of-ecb-meeting-results/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Stock markets and other financial markets are on hold as traders and investors are awaiting the key markets event of the week: Thursday's European Central Bank regular monetary policy meeting. Many expect the ECB to announce more details on the winding down of its big bond-buying program.

    The Euro currency could see volatile price action in the immediate aftermath of the ECB meeting, including ECB Chief Mario Draghi's press conference.

    Gold prices are near steady in pre-U.S.-session trading. The yellow metal bears still have technical momentum on their side.

    The key "outside markets" on Thursday morning find the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading above $52.00 a barrel.

    The most important U.S. economic report of the week is Friday morning's advance third-quarter GDP estimate. The number is expected to come in at up 2.7% versus the second-quarter reading of up 3.1%.


    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the advance economic indicators report, pending home sales, and the Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 26 Oct 2017 11:59:08 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/26/many-world-markets-on-hold-ahead-of-ecb-meeting-results/ Global Equity Markets See Some Pressure From Downbeat Corporate Earnings https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/25/global-equity-markets-see-some-pressure-from-downbeat-corporate-earnings/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading, pressured a bit by some downbeat corporate earnings reports. Japan's Nikkei stock index saw its record-setting 16-session winning streak halted Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold and silver prices are lower and hit a three-week low overnight. The bears have downside technical momentum in these two precious metals markets.

    In overnight news, the U.K. GDP was reported up 0.4% in the third quarter and up 1.5%, year-on-year, which was a bit better than market expectations.

    The German Ifo business climate index rose to 116.7 in October, which was better than forecasts.

    The U.S. dollar is slightly higher in early U.S. trading Wednesday. The other key "outside market finds Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly lower and trading above $52.00 a barrel.

    The key markets event of the week occurs on Thursday, when the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting. Many expect the ECB to announce more details on the winding down of its bond-buying program.


    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, the U.S. monthly house price index, new residential sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 25 Oct 2017 12:01:47 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/25/global-equity-markets-see-some-pressure-from-downbeat-corporate-earnings/ Global Equities Mixed As Geopolitical Front Remains Quieter https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/24/global-equities-mixed-as-geopolitical-front-remains-quieter/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins, after a rare sell off that occurred on Monday. Global equities traders are focused on corporate earnings reports this week.

    Gold prices are slightly lower in pre-U.S.-session trading. The bears have some technical momentum on their side early this week. There have not been any flare-ups on the geopolitical front the past couple weeks, and that is also working against the safe-haven metal.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone Markit purchasing managers' survey (PMI) came in at 55.9 in October versus 56.7 in September. A reading above 50.0 signals growth in the sector. The October decline from September was more than expected and this report falls into the camp of the European Central Bank doves, who want to see the ECB hold off on tightening its monetary policy.

    The U.S. dollar is slightly lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday. The other key "outside market finds Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading above $52.00 a barrel. Crude oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.

    This week the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Many expect the ECB to announce more details on the winding down of its bond-buying program.


    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the U.S. flash services PMI, the U.S. flash manufacturing PMI, and the Richmond Fed business activity survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 24 Oct 2017 11:59:43 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/24/global-equities-mixed-as-geopolitical-front-remains-quieter/ How Trump's Tax Cuts Could Impact the Gold Price Before 2018 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/23/how-trumps-tax-cuts-could-impact-the-gold-price-before-2018/ As expected, the gold price has struggled to regain the $1,300 level last week, but it won't stay below that price for long...

    After reaching a monthly high of $1,305 on Friday, Oct. 13, the metal fell 1.8% last week to close at $1,281 on Friday, Oct. 20.

    Sentiment toward gold prices is badly bruised as stocks continue to make new highs, causing interest in precious metals to wane. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at new record highs every trading session last week, gaining 1.9% over the five-day period.

    Although the U.S. dollar has been mostly sideways for the past month, it has regained some strength in the past week. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - which tracks the dollar against the euro, Swiss franc, and other currencies - is up from 93.09 on Oct. 13 to 93.90 today (Monday, Oct. 23).

    Part of the dollar's rally comes from renewed talk of passing U.S. President Donald Trump's promised tax cuts. Last Friday, the GOP-controlled Senate approved a budget measure that would let Republicans start drawing up a tax-cut plan without support from Democrats.

    In my view, the price of gold will likely stagnate over the next few weeks. News around the tax cuts and the 91.7% chance of a December rate hike should support the dollar and stocks, attracting money away from the gold market.

    On the other hand, I find it interesting that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) recently came out in favor of gold. The bank said it believes precious metals are still a relevant component of investors' portfolios, even though they offer no yield.

    My sense is that we're going to get a surprising upside move from gold prices and gold stocks before this year is out. That's why I'm going to show you my bullish gold price target for the end of the fourth quarter.

    First, here's a closer look at gold's decline last week...

    The Gold Price Posted a Weekly Drop of 1.8% (Oct. 13-20)

    Gold settled at $1,305 on Friday, Oct. 13, for the highest close since Sept. 25, but it couldn't maintain that high on Monday, Oct. 16. Although the price of gold opened higher, at $1,306, it fell throughout the day as the DXY rose from 93.09 to 93.31. The metal ultimately closed the session at $1,303 for a 0.2% loss.

    Overnight trading into Tuesday morning didn't help, as the DXY kept running higher. As it peaked near 93.70 in morning trading, gold prices fell back to $1,284. They settled the day 1.3% lower, at $1,286.

    Here's a look at the dollar's performance last week...

    gold price

    The gold price weakness continued into Wednesday even as the DXY fell from 93.49 to 93.36 by the end of the session. This dragged gold 0.2% lower, to $1,283, by the close.

    On Thursday, Oct. 19, the price of gold bounced higher as the DXY fell back below the 93.25 level. This dollar weakness was enough to lift gold higher, opening at $1,286 and closing at $1,290. That marked a 0.5% gain for the session.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    But the specter of tax cuts dominated market news on Friday. Stocks rallied as the Senate passed a tax reform blueprint aimed at cutting the corporate tax rate down to as low as 20%. This boosted the Dow Jones by 0.7% and lifted the DXY from 93.27 to 93.66.

    Of course, that again spurred gold selling, dragging the metal down to $1,281 by the end of the day. With that, the gold price posted a 0.7% loss for the day and 1.8% decline for the week.

    And gold prices today (Monday, Oct. 23) are down again as the dollar climbs toward its highest level in nearly three weeks. The DXY is up to 93.90, while the metal is down 0.4% to $1,276.

    As I mentioned, I think the gold price could keep heading lower over the next few weeks. The dollar's rally doesn't seem to be over, which could likely cap any gold gains in the short term.

    But my longer-term gold price forecast over the next two months is much more bullish. In fact, I expect gold to reach this bold target before the end of 2017...

    My Gold Price Prediction Shows a Double-Digit Gain Before 2018

    Right now, I predict gold prices will rally to $1,400 by the end of the year. That would mark a strong 9.7% rise from today's price of $1,276.

    To better understand that bullish target, we need to take a closer look at the dollar, which has been gaining these last three weeks...

    Cash Settle ICE

    The DXY has now spent the last three weeks above its 50-day moving average near 92.77, and I think its rally could continue. A few more weeks of strength could well bring the DXY to 96 or 97.

    But like I've said before, that doesn't have to mean weaker gold prices. Although a strong dollar would likely cap gold's gains, gold is still capable of steadily rising alongside the dollar.

    Editor's Note: Receive gold updates and other moneymaking opportunities with our free Profit Alerts service. Here's how to sign up today...

    This chart indicates the metal has a strong chance of breaking higher alongside the dollar in the next few weeks...

    Continuous Contract CME

    I think prices will temporarily stay in the $1,280 to $1,315 range, but an upside breakout is likely in the next few weeks.

    A look at gold stocks paints a similar picture...

    VanEck Vectors Gold Miners EFT

    It will be interesting to see if gold stocks lead gold prices. In any case, both seem to be building pressure as they prepare to move higher.

    Other analysts agree on a bullish picture for long-term gold prices, with some forecasting gold to move as high as $2,000 in the next few years...

    CPM Group's Jeff Christian, who is typically more neutral on gold, recently said he expects a new all-time gold high by 2020. In an interview with Macro Voices, Christian said, "for the annual average price to be $1,650 or $1,700, that means that you're going to have gold prices knocking on the door of $2,000."

    I actually think we'll see even higher prices before then, but for right now, my target is still for a run at $1,400 this year.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorning, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 23 Oct 2017 16:54:27 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/23/how-trumps-tax-cuts-could-impact-the-gold-price-before-2018/ World Stock Markets Lifted Following Japanese Elections https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/23/world-stock-markets-lifted-following-japanese-elections/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings and new record highs when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S.-session trading, amid the better risk appetite seen in the marketplace in recent sessions. A firmer U.S. dollar indexx to start the trading week is also bearish for the gold and silver markets.

    In overnight news, the Japanese yen saw pressure against the U.S. dollar after Japanese elections showed Prime Minister Abe and his coalition government with a lop-sided victory in snap elections. World stock markets were buoyed on the news from Japan, as Abe is considered to be more dovish on monetary policy.

    The Euro currency was pressured overnight on reports the Spanish prime minister is seeking powers to remove the leaders of the secessionist Catalonia region.

    Traders and investors this week are anticipating who will be President Trump's nominee for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell has moved to the top of the list among many Fed watchers.

    Also this week the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Many expect the ECB to announce more details on the winding down of its bond-buying program.

    The U.S. dollar is higher in early U.S. trading. The other key "outside market finds Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady and trading just below $52.00 a barrel.


    U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 23 Oct 2017 12:01:39 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/23/world-stock-markets-lifted-following-japanese-elections/ Global Stock Markets Lifted As U.S. Senate Passes Tax-Cut Blueprint https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/20/global-stock-markets-lifted-as-u-s-senate-passes-tax-cut-blueprint/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Global equities were boosted overnight in part on news the U.S. Senate passed a tax-reform blueprint package late Thursday. If the so-called blueprint becomes law it would likely help to stimulate the U.S. economy via lower tax rates.

    Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S.-session trading amid the keener risk appetite in the marketplace Friday, and on a higher U.S. dollar index. The greenback was also supported on the U.S. Senate passage of the tax-reform blueprint.

    The Euro currency is under pressure late this week after the Spanish government got a rebuke from the Caladonia region's leader on Thursday. Spanish government officials are holding an emergency meeting Saturday to discuss tightening their grip on the Caladonia region.

    The other key "outside market" Friday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading just below $51.00 a barrel. The oil market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes existing home sales. Fed Chair Janet Yellen also gives a lecture, but it's not certain she will talk about current U.S. monetary policy.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 20 Oct 2017 12:02:52 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/20/global-stock-markets-lifted-as-u-s-senate-passes-tax-cut-blueprint/ Global Stocks Down On 30th Anniversary of "Black Monday" https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/19/global-stocks-down-on-30th-anniversary-of-black-monday/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins.The bourses are seeing some profit taking after recently hitting record or multi-year highs. Today is the 30th anniversary of the "Black Monday" record-setting crash of the U.S. stock market.

    Gold and silver prices are firmer in pre-U.S.-session trading, on a bit of safe-haven demand amid the drop in world stock markets today.

    In overnight news, China's gross domestic product was reported up 6.8% in the third quarter, year-on-year. That's just a bit down from the 6.9% rate in the second quarter.

    The rift between Spain and its Catalonia region deepened Thursday when the Catalan leader did not respond to a government order to stop his secessionist plans. Spanish government officials are holding an emergency meeting on the matter.

    China on Wednesday started its twice-a-decade Party Congress meetings, in which major economic and cultural planning initiatives are laid out for the next five years. Traders and investors will keep a close watch for any pronouncements coming out of those meetings.

    The key "outside markets" Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading above $51.00 a barrel.


    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and leading economic indicators.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 19 Oct 2017 11:51:48 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/19/global-stocks-down-on-30th-anniversary-of-black-monday/ World Equity Markets Firmer, But Subdued As China's Party Congress Convenes https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/18/world-equity-markets-firmer-but-subdued-as-chinas-party-congress-convenes/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, but in quieter trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at record highs this week. Hopes for tax cuts in the U.S. are helping to lift the U.S. stock market.

    Gold prices are weaker again in pre-U.S.-day-session trading. The bears have gained some downside technical momentum this week. A higher U.S. dollar index this week is also working against the gold and silver bulls.

    The geopolitical scene has been quieter the past couple weeks and that's allowed world trader/investor risk appetite to uptick, which is bullish for the stock markets and bearish for safe-haven gold.

    China on Wednesday started its twice-a-decade Party Congress meetings, in which major economic and cultural planning initiatives are laid out for the next five years. Traders and investors will keep a close watch for any pronouncements coming out of those meetings. China's President Xi Jinping's opening speech contained no surprises to the markets. He urged the government to play a greater role in the Chinese economy. He also said he wanted China to become more open in world market dealings.

    The key "outside markets" Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher, as the greenback is having a good week, so far. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading just above $52.00 a barrel.


    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the Federal Reserve's beige book.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 18 Oct 2017 12:04:41 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/18/world-equity-markets-firmer-but-subdued-as-chinas-party-congress-convenes/ Global Equities See Corrective Pullbacks; Risk Aversion Still Low https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/17/global-equities-see-corrective-pullbacks-risk-aversion-still-low/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight, on corrective pullbacks from recent gains that have put many stock indexes at record or multi-year highs. U.S. stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early U.S. electronic trading. Focus so far this week is on corporate earnings reports.

    Gold prices are solidly lower in pre-U.S.-session trading. The geopolitical scene has been quieter the past couple weeks and that's allowed world risk appetite to uptick, which is bearish for safe-haven gold.

    In overnight news, consumer prices in the U.K. hit a five-year high in September, at up 3.0%, year-on-year. That's well above the Bank of England's target inflation rate of 2.0% annual inflation. The BOE is expected to raise its interest rate slightly in November.

    Meantime, the Euro zone reported its September consumer price index at up 0.4% from August and up 1.5%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

    Nymex crude prices are trading modestly up Tuesday morning and are just above $52.00 a barrel. The other key "outside market" sees the U.S. dollar index higher.

    China on Wednesday starts its twice-a-decade Party Congress meetings, in which major economic and cultural planning initiatives are laid out for the next five years. Traders and investors will keep a close watch for any pronouncements coming out of those meetings.


    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, Treasury international capital data, and the NAHB housing market index.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 17 Oct 2017 12:01:35 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/17/global-equities-see-corrective-pullbacks-risk-aversion-still-low/ What's Next for the Gold Price Now That It's Back Above $1,300? https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/16/whats-next-for-the-gold-price-now-that-its-back-above-1300/ The gold price rallied 2.4% higher last week, pushing the yellow metal back above the $1,300 level for the first time since Sept. 26.

    That strong gain was likely a relief rally, which gold prices were due for.

    From Sept. 12 to Oct. 5, gold declined 5.8% to a two-month low of $1,273. This decline was largely due to the surging U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against other prominent currencies like the euro and the Swiss franc. The DXY climbed from 91.88 to 93.96 over that same time period.

    But the overbought dollar fell back in the wake of last week's Federal Reserve minutes release from the September FOMC meeting. Despite the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 91.7% probability of a December rate hike, the minutes showed Fed officials talking about a patient approach to raising interest rates, indicating an expected year-end rate hike may not happen after all. The DXY - which often rises on the possibility of rate hikes - fell from 93.80 to 93.06 last week in response.

    The bottom line is the Fed remains perplexed over persistently low inflation, putting a December rate hike into doubt. That means a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices, since the two usually move inverse to one another.

    I still think that a gold price of $1,300 will prove to be a challenging level. I expect gold to hover near that level, but even if it steadies above it, I don't think it'll move much higher for a few more weeks.

    However, we still have more than two months before 2018, and I think that will be plenty of time for the price of gold to run much higher.

    Before I show you just how bullish I am on gold this year, here's a closer look at last week's big 2.4% rally...

    Gold Price Climbs 2.4% Last Week (Oct. 6-13)

    After settling at $1,275 on Friday, Oct. 6, gold prices started the new week higher by opening at $1,283 on Monday, Oct. 9. After moving sideways all morning, it steadied higher to $1,285 by the end of the day. That marked a gain of 0.8% from the Oct. 6 settlement.

    The price of gold maintained momentum on Tuesday, starting the session at $1,292. This came as the DXY weakened from 93.50 to 93.25 over the course of the day. Gold eventually settled 0.7% higher, at $1,294.

    Here's a look at how the DXY trended last week...

    gold price

    Wednesday saw gold open at $1,290 even, followed by a sell-off to $1,285 by 2 p.m., when the Fed minutes were released. The disagreement among Fed officials on how quickly and aggressively they should raise rates initially lowered both the dollar and gold. The DXY dropped from 93.29 to 93.02 on the day, while the gold price declined 0.4% to $1,289.

    On Thursday, Oct. 12, gold opened higher at $1,295 despite a small wave of dollar buying. The DXY rose toward 93.25, which temporarily dragged gold prices lower. The metal still posted a gain, closing at $1,297 for a 0.6% rise for the day.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    But the dollar saw a plunge from 93.25 to around 92.70 Friday on the heels of weaker-than-expected economic data. The U.S. Consumer Price Index grew 0.1% in September - below the 0.2% forecast - while retail sales were only up 1.6% - below the 1.7% forecast.

    The dollar's decline pushed gold higher throughout the session. It closed the day 0.6% higher, at $1,305 - the highest since Sept. 26. With that, the price of gold posted a weekly gain of 2.4%.

    And the gold price today (Monday, Oct. 16) continues to hover near that two-and-a-half-week high. It's currently up 0.2% and trading at $1,307.

    Despite last week's rebound, I remain skeptical that gold will keep rallying in the short term. It could likely head back lower through the rest of the fall season.

    But that doesn't mean it won't head back higher through the winter, which is why I'm going to share with you my price targets for the end of 2017...

    My Gold Price Prediction for the Rest of 2017

    I don't think gold will continue higher in the short term, unless it does so together with the DXY.

    Looking at the DXY chart, you can see that the index stalled at 94, as I had suggested it would...

    gold prices

    Now it appears to be "resting" near the 50-day moving average of 92.76, which is acting as support. Once the DXY breaks back above 94, I think it will make a run for 96 or even 97, depending on whether or not the Fed raises interest rates in November.

    Like I said, gold could follow the dollar higher and, in fact, that would be a very bullish signal.  Still, a climbing dollar would not act as a tailwind for the metal, which would be rising in spite of it...

    price of gold

    I think the price of gold will be capped around $1,325 on the upside, with $1,290 as a limited downside. But once it makes a break higher, I see it climbing 5% from today's price to the 2016high of $1,373. Beyond that, I think $1,400 is still possible by Dec. 29 - the last day of trading for 2017.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

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    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 16 Oct 2017 16:14:24 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/16/whats-next-for-the-gold-price-now-that-its-back-above-1300/ Global Stock Markets Mostly Firmer; China's Party Congress Meetings On Deck https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/16/global-stock-markets-mostly-firmer-chinas-party-congress-meetings-on-deck/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets  were mostly firmer overnight. Many world stock indexes are at or near record or multi-year highs. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are modestly up and poked to a three-week high overnight. The yellow metal bulls have the near-term technical advantage, which means the path of least resistance for prices will be sideways to higher in the near term.

    China this week starts its twice-a-decade Party Congress meetings, in which major economic and cultural planning initiatives are laid out for the next five years.

    In other overnight news, the Euro zone reported its exports were up 2.5% in August from July, while imports were up by only 0.4%.

    The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading Friday. The other key outside market sees Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading above $52.00 a barrel. The oil bulls have the overall the near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 16 Oct 2017 12:05:27 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/16/global-stock-markets-mostly-firmer-chinas-party-congress-meetings-on-deck/ Global Equity Markets Rise; Busy U.S. Data Slate Friday https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/13/global-equity-markets-rise-busy-u-s-data-slate-friday/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. Many world stock indexes are at or near record or multi-year highs. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Stock market traders and investors are focusing on upbeat world economic growth prospects as a bullish tonic. However, they are paying little attention to geopolitics. If the stock market community does begin to pay more attention to geopolitics (which will likely be the case) then look for increased money flows out of equities and into hard assets like gold and other raw commodities.

    New on the geopolitical front Friday morning are reports that President Trump is ready to decertify the U.S-Iran nuclear agreement from the Obama administration. Also, reports said Brexit talks between the U.K. and the European Union are not going well.

    Gold prices are slightly down in pre-U.S.-session trading. Gold bulls have had a good week, overall, as prices are close to pushing above the key $1,300.00 level.


    In overnight news, China's exports were up 8.1% in September, year-on-year, while its imports were up 18.7%. The exports figure was lower than expected and the imports number was higher than expected.

    The U.S. stock index is near steady in early U.S. trading Friday. The greenback bears have gained downside momentum this week. The other key outside market sees Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading just below $52.00 a barrel. The oil bulls this week regained the near-term chart advantage.

    It will be a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Friday, including the consumer price index, retail sales, real earnings, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The consumer price index for September is the headline number of the day. The CPI is expected to come in at up 0.1% from August.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 13 Oct 2017 11:48:54 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/13/global-equity-markets-rise-busy-u-s-data-slate-friday/ Global Equity Markets Lifted By Upbeat Investor Attitudes https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/12/global-equity-markets-lifted-by-upbeat-investor-attitudes/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are near this week's record highs. Japan's Nikkei stock index hit another 21-year high overnight. Stock market traders are not paying much attention to geopolitics at present, as their risk appetites remain strong.

    Gold and silver prices are higher and hit two-week highs in pre-U.S.-session trading. The slumping U.S. dollar this week is a bullish element for the precious metals markets.

    In overnight news, Euro zone industrial production in August was reported up 1.4% from July and up 3.8%, year-on-year. Those numbers were much stronger than expected and fall into the camp of the monetary policy hawks, who want the European Central Bank to start to tighten monetary policy.


    The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading Wednesday, but did hit a two-week low overnight. The greenback bears have gained downside momentum this week. The other key outside market sees Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading just below $51.00 a barrel.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the producer price index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stock report, and the monthly Treasury budget statement. There are also several Federal Reserve officials set to deliver speeches today.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 12 Oct 2017 11:48:32 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/12/global-equity-markets-lifted-by-upbeat-investor-attitudes/ Global Equity Markets Mixed; Geopolitics Back In Play https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/10/global-equity-markets-mixed-geopolitics-back-in-play/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. Asian stock indexes were mostly firmer and European stock indexes were mostly weaker. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at or near record highs.

    Gold prices are higher and once again closing in on the psychologically important $1,300.00 level. Safe-haven demand and short covering are featured in gold and silver markets early this week.

    In overnight news, geopolitical worries were ratcheted up a notch on reports U.S. President Donald Trump will stop at the North Korea-South Korea demilitarized zone to deliver a strong anti-North Korea speech, during his Asia trip next week. Also, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis reportedly told his Army officers to be ready, in case U.S.-North Korea negotiations fail.

    The European Union is worried and its stock markets are shaky regarding Catalonia possibly seceding from Spain. The Catalan regional president is scheduled to give a speech Tuesday, in which he may announce his intention to separate Catalonia from Spain.


    The U.S. dollar index is lower again in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. The other key outside market on Tuesday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and just above the key $50.00 level. Reports said Saudi Arabia plans to cut its crude oil exports in November.

    Traders and investors are looking ahead to what is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the week: Wednesday afternoon's minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. Most of the marketplace now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 0.25% at the December FOMC meeting.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 10 Oct 2017 11:47:51 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/10/global-equity-markets-mixed-geopolitics-back-in-play/ Global Markets Mostly Up Amid Minimal Risk Aversion in Marketplace https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/09/global-markets-mostly-up-amid-minimal-risk-aversion-in-marketplace/ (Kitco News) - Global markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. There were some significant geopolitical events occurring over the weekend, but the world marketplace has so far Monday shrugged them off as mostly nothing new. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at or near record highs.

    Gold prices are solidly higher in pre-U.S.-session trading Monday. Short covering and bargain hunting are featured following recent selling pressure that drove gold and silver prices to a two-month low last week.


    Thousands of Spaniards on Sunday protested any secession of Catalonia after that region voted to be independent recently. The U.S. and Turkey saw a diplomatic row escalate over the weekend when both countries put restrictions on visas for the other country. The Turkish lira dropped sharply Monday on the situation. And the U.S.-North Korea war of words continued during the weekend, with both sides spouting off.

    The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading, on a normal corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high on Friday. The other key outside market on Monday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady. Oil bulls are fading. There are worries recent hurricanes that struck the U.S. will curtail petroleum refining capacity, which means less demand for crude until those refineries are 100% back on line.

    The U.S. government is closed for the Columbus Day holiday Monday. However, most markets are open. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 09 Oct 2017 11:51:21 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/09/global-markets-mostly-up-amid-minimal-risk-aversion-in-marketplace/ Little Risks Aversion Heading Into Weekend; U.S. Jobs Report On Deck https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/06/little-risks-aversion-heading-into-weekend-u-s-jobs-report-on-deck/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading.  U.S. stock indexes are also pointed narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at or near record highs, to underscore the lack of risk aversion in the marketplace at this time. Also, the VIX (volatility index) has fallen to an all-time low. Other major world stock indexes are also on big bull runs.

    Gold prices are weaker in pre-U.S.-day-session trading. Near-term price downtrends remain in place for the gold and silver markets and bears have the chart advantage in both. The bull market in equities has funneled money away from the safe-haven gold market.

    Traders and investors are awaiting Friday morning's U.S. employment report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up only 80,000, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. The unusually low non-farm jobs growth estimate is due to two major hurricanes that hit the U.S. mainland in September. A big miss on the non-farm jobs number, from the forecast, may not rattle the markets too much, due to the uncertain impact of the major hurricanes.


    There is growing speculation on who President Trump will appoint as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. There is no clear-cut consensus on who will be Trump's pick.

    The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The greenback bulls have been working the dollar index sideways to higher for the past few weeks. Meantime, the Euro currency has been suffering during that same time.

    The other key outside market on Friday morning sees  Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker. Oil gains have been capped this week by notions of rising U.S. crude oil production that is approaching 10 million barrels a day.

    Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the monthly wholesale trade report and the consumer credit report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 06 Oct 2017 11:49:56 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/06/little-risks-aversion-heading-into-weekend-u-s-jobs-report-on-deck/ World Marketplace Quieter; Friday's U.S. Jobs Report Awaited https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/05/world-marketplace-quieter-fridays-u-s-jobs-report-awaited/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are firmer in pre-U.S.-session trading, on more short covering and perceived bargain hunting following recent selling pressure.

    Traders and investors are looking ahead to Friday's U.S. employment report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up only 80,000, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. The unusually low non-farm jobs growth estimate is due to two major hurricanes that hit the U.S. mainland in September.

    The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The greenback bulls have been working the dollar index sideways to higher for the past few weeks. Meantime, the Euro currency has been suffering during that same time.


    The other key outside market on Thursday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures also slightly higher. Oil gains have been capped this week by notions of rising U.S. crude oil production that is approaching 10 million barrels a day.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, manufacturers' shipments and inventories, and monthly chain store sales reports.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 05 Oct 2017 11:51:40 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/05/world-marketplace-quieter-fridays-u-s-jobs-report-awaited/ Global Equity Markets, U.S. Dollar Pull Back From Recent Gains https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/04/global-equity-markets-u-s-dollar-pull-back-from-recent-gains/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, on normal downside corrections after recent gains. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are near their record highs.

    Gold and silver prices are higher on bargain hunting and short covering, following recent selling pressure that pushed prices to seven-week lows earlier this week. A weaker U.S. dollar on this day is also favoring the gold and silver market bulls.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 56.7 in September versus 55.7 in August. A reading of 56.7 was expected. A number above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen gives a speech Wednesday afternoon. Any comments she makes on the U.S. economy will be closely scrutinized for clues on the timing of future monetary policy moves by the Federal Reserve.

    Traders and investors are looking ahead to Friday's U.S. employment report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 80,000. The unusually low non-farm jobs growth estimate is due to two major hurricanes that hit the U.S. mainland in September.


    The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Tuesday. The greenback bulls still have some technical momentum on their side.

    The other key outside market on Wednesday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures weaker. While the oil bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, there are stiff chart resistance layers above the market.

    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM non-manufacturing index, the global services PMI, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 04 Oct 2017 11:49:52 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/04/global-equity-markets-u-s-dollar-pull-back-from-recent-gains/ Global Equity Markets Higher Amid Upbeat Marketplace Attitudes https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/03/global-equity-markets-higher-amid-upbeat-marketplace-attitudes/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 index scored another record high overnight. Risk appetite is back in the marketplace despite geopolitics and this being the historically troublesome month of October.

    Gold prices are weaker again and hit a seven-week low overnight. Prices are in a steep three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears have the near-term technical advantage.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its August producer price index was up 0.3% from July and up 2.5%, year-on-year. Those numbers were a bit hotter than expected.

    Australia's central bank held its monetary policy steady at its regular meeting Tuesday.


    The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S trading Tuesday. Greenback bulls have momentum as prices have been trending higher for three weeks.

    The other key outside market on Tuesday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures slightly lower. Prices last week hit a five-month high and then backed off Monday on profit taking. While the oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, there are stiff chart resistance layers above the recent high.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, and domestic auto industry sales.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 03 Oct 2017 11:48:58 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/03/global-equity-markets-higher-amid-upbeat-marketplace-attitudes/ Is the Gold Price Going Up from Today's One-Month Low? https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/02/is-the-gold-price-going-up-from-todays-one-month-low/ While the gold price reached a one-month low today (Monday, Oct. 2), it will rebound nearly 10% before the end of the year...

    Last week, when the gold price rose back above the $1,300 level on Monday, Sept. 25, it was little more than a fake-out.

    Although the rebound appeared promising, gold continued lower the rest of the week to close out Friday, Sept. 29, at $1,285. That marked a weekly loss of 1% from the Friday, Sept. 22, close to Sept. 29. It's moved even lower today to a one-month low of $1,276.

    The decline came as investors moved away from gold and into stocks following the release of Trump's tax plan on Sept. 27. The plan's highlights include cutting the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% and reducing the current seven tax brackets down to three.

    As the Dow Jones gained 0.5% from the release to the end of the week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) got a big boost. Although the index initially fell on Wednesday after the news, traders and investors saw the planned tax cuts as a boon to the American economy. This has lifted the DXY from 93.36 on Wednesday to 93.50 today.

    Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen also announced last Tuesday that strong jobs readings have increased the Fed's urgency to raise rates. The central bank has said it expects unemployment to fall from 4.4% in August toward an even 4% - the lowest jobless rate since 2000.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    All of this dragged the gold price back below $1,300, where it has been since, confirming my view that the current rout isn't quite over yet.

    I expect the oversold dollar to continue its bounce from the two-and-a-half-year low of 91.35 seen on Sept. 8. Since gold is priced in the dollar, any rise in the currency would lower demand from users of other currencies, which could limit any near-term gains in the price of gold.

    But technical gold price indicators point to a recovery before 2018. Today, I'll show you my bold and bullish prediction for the metal through the end of the year.

    First, let's closely examine gold's 1% drop last week...

    Gold Price Sees a Weekly Decline of 1% (Sept. 22-29)

    After closing at $1,298 on Friday, Sept. 22, the price of gold bounced sharply higher on Monday. It opened lower at $1,294 but climbed higher throughout the day despite the DXY rising from 92.17 to 92.65. Gold prices closed the session at $1,312 for a gain of 1.1%.

    Tuesday brought a reversal as the dollar came back strong on the back of Yellen's hawkish interest rate talk. The DXY climbed back above 93 for the first time in a month. Gold sold off, opening at $1,302 and closing at that same level for a 0.8% loss.

    The gold price plunged below $1,300 on Wednesday, Sept. 27, after Trump released his new tax plan. The metal opened at $1,289, trending lower from there and eventually settling at $1,288. That marked a 1.1% decline on the day even as the DXY fell from 93.97 to 93.36.

    Here's how the dollar performed last week...

    gold price

    On Thursday, Sept. 28, gold leveled off as the DXY fell toward the 93 level. The gold price opened lower at $1,283, but it gained throughout the session to settle at $1,289 for a small 0.1% rise on the day.

    But the weakness returned on Friday despite the dollar moving sideways around the 93.10 level.  It seemed that the DXY was digesting its gains for the week. Gold prices opened at $1,288 and fell from there to settle at $1,285. That marked a 0.3% decline for the day and a 1% loss for the week.

    The Ultimate Retirement Action Plan: This Could Mean the Difference Between "Adequate" Savings and the Retirement of Your Dreams. Click Here Now...

    And the gold price today (Monday, Oct. 2) is kicking off the new month on a weak note. It's currently down 0.7% and trading at $1,276 - the lowest level since Aug. 8.

    As I mentioned above, I think the price of gold is in for more near-term weakness. The dollar is clearly gaining momentum, up to 93.50 today from the low of 91.35 on Sept. 8.

    But I see this as just a dead cat bounce - a brief rebound before resuming its decline. Despite the DXY's recent gains, it's down over 9% this year.

    Here's why I expect the dollar to fall before 2018 - and give way to a strong gold price rebound...

    My Bullish Gold Price Forecast for the Rest of 2017

    To see where gold could first head in the short term, we need to look at its technical indicators, particularly the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator (both highlighted below)...

    gold prices

    Gold has just crossed down through its 50-day moving average of $1,296. Both the RSI and MACD indicators confirm this downward trend. And both have room to move lower still before gold reaches oversold conditions.

    Meanwhile, the dollar looks to have put in the higher low, with the DXY having tested the 91.80 level as I detailed for you last week...

    price of gold

    Just as gold has crossed down through its 50-day moving average, the DXY has crossed up above its own to establish a higher low. Both the RSI and MACD confirm this uptrend.

    From here, we could see a bit more pressure on gold prices as the dollar continues its climb. If that happens, look for gold to dip into the $1,260 to $1,280 range before bottoming.

    Interestingly, ABN Amro Bank echoes my conclusion. Georgette Boele, a senior precious metals analyst with the bank, predicts in a recent report that the dollar will keep climbing in the short term. She says this will likely drag gold to as low as $1,250 per ounce.

    But after that, the price of gold is poised to strongly recover. I think gold will easily retake $1,300, then conquer $1,362 this fall and head toward $1,400 before 2018. A $1,400 gold price would mark a 9.7% increase from today's price of $1,276.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizeable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorning, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 02 Oct 2017 17:08:48 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/02/is-the-gold-price-going-up-from-todays-one-month-low/ U.S.-North Korea War Of Words Heats Up; Markets Show Little Reaction, So Far https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/02/u-s-north-korea-war-of-words-heats-up-markets-show-little-reaction-so-far/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    The war of words between the U.S. and North Korea flared up again over the weekend. After the U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested there is some dialogue taking place with North Korea regarding its nuclear missiles, President Trump then tweeted "save your energy Rex." So far, the world markets are not reacting strongly to the weekend developments on the geopolitical front.

    As the month of October begins, the month of September turned out to be one of the least volatile months for the U.S. stock market in over 65 years.

    Gold prices are lower and hit a six-week low overnight, once again pressured by an appreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market and little risk aversion in the marketplace at this time. Silver prices are slightly lower and hit a seven-week low overnight.

    A shooting spree in Las Vegas late Sunday that left over 50 people dead and over 200 wounded is not believed to be a terrorist attack.


    In other overnight news, the Spanish referendum on Catalonia splitting from Spain passed easily. This put some more downside pressure on the Euro currency.

    The Euro zone September manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was out overnight and came in at 58.1 versus the August reading of 57.4. A number of 58.2 was forecast. A PMI above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

    The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early U.S trading Monday.

    Greenback bulls have momentum. A bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for the USDX, which is a technical clue that a market bottom is in place.

    The other key outside market on Monday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures lower. Prices last week hit a five-month high. While the oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, there are stiff chart resistance layers just above present price levels.

    U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the ISM report on business, and the global manufacturing PMI.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 02 Oct 2017 11:54:06 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/02/u-s-north-korea-war-of-words-heats-up-markets-show-little-reaction-so-far/ World Markets Quieter On Last Trading Day Of Week, Month, Quarter https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/29/world-markets-quieter-on-last-trading-day-of-week-month-quarter/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets  were mostly firmer in quieter trading overnight. A lack of major news developments in the marketplace late this week is keeping equities subdued. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are firmer today on short covering in the futures market and bargain hunting in the cash market, following this week's selling pressure.

    Friday is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra special day from a charting perspective. Monthly (or quarterly) high or low closes on the last trading day of the month (or quarter) are very technically significant.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer prices were up 1.5% in September, year-on-year. That rate was unchanged from August and was just below market expectations. The European Central Bank wants to see an annual inflation rate of close to 2.0%.

    The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S trading Friday. Greenback bulls have had a good week. A bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for the USDX, which is a technical clue that a market bottom is in place. Meantime, the

    The other key outside market on Friday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures slightly higher. Prices Thursday hit a five-month high. The oil bulls have the near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart resistance levels just overhead in the crude oil market.


    U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 29 Sep 2017 11:57:34 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/29/world-markets-quieter-on-last-trading-day-of-week-month-quarter/ Global Equities Mostly Up On Ideas Of Better World Economic Growth https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/28/global-equities-mostly-up-on-ideas-of-better-world-economic-growth/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets  were mostly firmer overnight, on hopes that a U.S. corporate tax-reform plan will boost economic growth not only in the U.S. but around the globe. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are slightly lower and hit a six-week low overnight. Better risk appetite in the marketplace this week, as well as a rallying U.S. dollar index, are bearish for the safe-haven metal.

    World bond market yields are on the rise this week, on ideas that better world economic growth will prompt the major central banks to become less accommodative on their monetary policies. Odds are rising (now about 75%) that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates in December.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone economic sentiment indicator rose to 113.0 in September from 111.9 in August. The September reading was the highest in over 10 years. This report falls into the camp of the Euro zone monetary policy hawks. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Thursday the ECB will decide later this year specifically when to start winding down its quantitative easing of monetary policy (bond buying).

    The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and hit another five-week high overnight. A bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for the USDX, which is a technical clue that a market bottom is in place. Meantime, the Euro currency hit another five-week low against the U.S. dollar overnight. There are chart clues the Euro has put in a near-term market top.

    The other key outside market on Thursday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures higher and hit a five-month high overnight. The oil bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage and still have upside momentum. However, there are stiff chart resistance levels just overhead in the crude oil market.


    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, advance economic indicators, the second-quarter GDP report, third estimate, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 28 Sep 2017 12:05:26 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/28/global-equities-mostly-up-on-ideas-of-better-world-economic-growth/ Global Stock Markets Lifted By Upbeat Yellen Speech https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/27/global-stock-markets-lifted-by-upbeat-yellen-speech/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivered a speech Tuesday that sounded an arguably hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy, and an upbeat tone on the U.S. economy. The world equity markets took this as a positive sign that a strengthening U.S. economy and rising inflation will help the other major industrialized countries' economic growth prospects, as well as reignite some wanted inflation.

    Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S.-day-session trading Wednesday. The surging U.S. dollar this week is a bearish element for the precious metals markets, as well as other raw commodity markets.

    The U.S. dollar bulls are on a roll this week, as the U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a five-week high overnight. A bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for the USDX, which is a technical clue that a market bottom is in place.

    Meantime, the Euro currency hit a five-week low against the U.S. dollar Wednesday. There are chart clues the Euro has put in a near-term market top.

    The other key outside the market on Wednesday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures slightly lower after hitting a four-month high Tuesday. The oil bulls have the near-term technical advantage and still have some momentum. However, there are stiff chart resistance levels just overhead in the crude oil market.


    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 27 Sep 2017 11:34:39 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/27/global-stock-markets-lifted-by-upbeat-yellen-speech/ Global Equity Markets Pull Back On Some Risk Aversion https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/26/global-equity-markets-pull-back-on-some-risk-aversion/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets  were mostly weaker overnight, as some risk aversion is back in the marketplace following Monday’s latest salvo from North Korea, in which the isolated nation said the U.S. had declared war on it. North Korea also said it had the right to shoot down U.S. warplanes outside of its air space. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    However, traders and investors are getting somewhat desensitized to the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea.

    Gold prices s are moderately lower in pre-U.S.-day-session trading, on a corrective pullback from good gains posted Monday. A stronger U.S. dollar so far this week is also a negative for the precious metals markets. Safe-haven demand will likely continue to at least limit the downside in the gold market.

    Focus this week is also on central banker speeches. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivers a speech Tuesday and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer talks Thursday. Other Federal Reserve officials will also give speeches throughout the week.

    The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a four-week high overnight. Greenback bulls are starting out the week in strong fashion. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are modestly lower this morning after hitting a four-month high overnight. The oil bulls have the near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the consumer confidence index, new residential sales, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 26 Sep 2017 12:27:08 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/26/global-equity-markets-pull-back-on-some-risk-aversion/ Why I See Gold Prices Rebounding Before 2018 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/25/why-i-see-gold-prices-rebounding-before-2018/ As I predicted last week, gold prices have fallen back below $1,300. They've been below that level since last Thursday, Sept. 20, and the metal is down another 0.1% today at $1,296.

    But don't expect that weakness to continue much longer. Once again, last week was all about the U.S. Federal Reserve and the dollar when it came to downward gold price movement.

    Despite U.S. President Donald Trump warning during his UN speech Tuesday that he would "totally destroy" North Korea, gold prices remained mostly flat. They closed at $1,311 on both Monday and Tuesday last week.

    The metal saw a 0.5% gain on Wednesday after the Fed announced plans to start shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet next month. It will do this by simply not renewing maturing bonds to the tune of $4 billion in mortgage securities and $6 billion in Treasury bonds each month. These amounts will ramp up each quarter to reach $20 billion and $30 billion, respectively.

    The Fed also said it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged between 1% and 1.25%, while indicating another rate hike was still possible in December. Eleven of the sixteen officials considered a 25 basis point (0.25%) increase "appropriate" by the end of 2017.

    But I expect this dollar strength to be temporary. The greenback can't maintain strength as disinflation - or the reduction in the rate of inflation - remains present and shows no signs of leaving.

    That means the dollar will likely remain weak. And that implies a rebound for the price of gold through the end of the year.

    Before I show you my bullish gold price targets for the end of 2017, here's a closer look at gold's 2% decline last week...

    Gold Prices See Weekly Drop of 2.1% (Sept. 15-22)

    After closing at $1,325 on Friday, Sept. 15, gold kicked off last week with some weakness. It opened lower at $1,313 and kept dropping throughout the day. The gold price eventually settled at $1,311 for a 1.1% loss on the day.

    Tuesday's action was quieter, as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - which measures the dollar against other currencies like the yen and the euro - traded in a tight range between 91.90 and 92. Gold traders hardly budged ahead of the Fed's statement release the following day. The metal closed the day flat at $1,311.

    Then the Fed announced Wednesday that it would unwind the balance sheet, which sent the DXY rocketing higher.

    Here's how the DXY moved after the Fed's 2 p.m. statement...

    gold prices

    As expected, this simultaneously dragged the price of gold roughly 1.4% lower in about 30 minutes...

    price of gold

    Their movements were nearly perfect mirror images. The dollar soared as the market interpreted the Fed's statement as hawkish as quantitative tightening - or the Fed unwinding its $4.5 trillion balance sheet - would begin in October and that another rate hike was expected by the end of 2017.

    After falling to $1,296 in the wake of the announcement, the gold price managed to rebound from there to close at $1,316. That marked a rise of 0.4% on the day.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    But the metal suffered on Thursday even as the dollar fell back to 92.26 that day. The price of gold opened lower at $1,292 and traded close to that level throughout the rest of the session. It settled 1.6% lower at $1,295.

    On Friday, Sept. 22, the DXY tested down to 91.81 but trended higher to 92.16 by early afternoon. That didn't impede a slight recovery from gold, which jumped 0.2% on the day to close at $1,298. Despite that gain, gold still posted a weekly loss of 2.1%.

    And the gold price today (Monday, Sept. 25) is down another 0.1% and trading at $1,296.

    The dollar's rebound from the two-and-a-half-year low on Sept. 8 has dominated the gold price narrative. Since that date, gold has fallen 4.1% to today's $1,296 price.

    I think the dollar will continue to be the most important factor to watch for gold moving forward. Although the DXY may continue higher from here in the short term, I see it eventually falling back and giving way to a strong surge in gold prices by 2018.

    Here's my bold gold price prediction for the end of the year...

    Price of Gold Could Reach This Bullish Target Before 2018

    Last week, I suggested watching for the DXY to put in a new "higher low" above the 91 level.  Well, Friday's morning dip to 91.81 may have been it.

    Despite its pullback from Wednesday's high, I think the dollar index could start to climb higher again from here...

    price of gold in 2018

    The DXY looks like it's bottoming, and the technical strength indicators seem to be agreeing. The RSI (relative strength index) momentum indicator (highlighted, top of the chart) is still near neutral, but the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator (highlighted, bottom of chart) has turned higher.

    With those in mind, I'm still looking for the DXY to climb into the 94-96 range before it heads back lower. That should keep a lid on the gold price for a bit, but I think it could hang in the $1,290-$1,310 range as the dollar bounces...

    gold price

    Going all the way back to the early 1970s, we've known that gold typically performs well when the dollar has been in a downtrend. Gold is priced in the dollar, so when it weakens, users of other currencies can buy more gold at a better exchange rate. This inevitably lifts demand and therefore the gold price.

    After the current gold correction runs its course, which may only be a matter of weeks, look for gold to make a run toward last year's peak of $1,362. That would be a 5.1% climb from today's price.

    Beyond that, expect gold to reach $1,400 before 2018 - an 8% gain from the current price.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorning, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 25 Sep 2017 18:30:05 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/25/why-i-see-gold-prices-rebounding-before-2018/ Global Markets Mixed; German Elections Quickly Digested By Marketplace https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/25/global-markets-mixed-german-elections-quickly-digested-by-marketplace/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The German elections held over the weekend saw Chancellor Angela Merkel secure a fourth term.

    However, voters did make a shift to the right, which could make it more difficult for Merkel to form a coalition. The elections had little impact on world markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are trading near unchanged. Silver prices are also trading near steady. The firmer U.S. dollar index Monday is a daily bearish element working against the precious metals markets.

    Focus this week is on central bankers speeches. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks Monday and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivers a speech Tuesday. Other Federal Reserve officials will also give speeches throughout the week.

    There were more verbal barbs traded between President Donald Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un over the weekend. However, the marketplace on Monday morning does not perceive the U.S.-North Korea conflict has having escalated from last week. However, look for this matter to intensify in the near term.

    In overnight news, the closely watched German Ifo business climate index fell to 115.2 in September from 115.9 in August.

    The key outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher.Greenback bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

    Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are near steady this morning. The oil bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage as prices hover above $50 a barrel.


    U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:01:45 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/25/global-markets-mixed-german-elections-quickly-digested-by-marketplace/ Risk Aversion Returns To Marketplace Amid New North Korea Threats https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/22/risk-aversion-returns-to-marketplace-amid-new-north-korea-threats/ (Kitco News) - World equity markets were mostly weaker overnight as risk aversion has quickly returned to the marketplace ahead of the weekend. North Korea has threatened to detonate a huge hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean.

    "Rocketman" Kim Jong Un has vowed to use "hard-line countermeasures" in response to President Trump's threat earlier this week to destroy North Korea. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are showing modest gains on renewed safe-haven demand, some bargain hunting from recent losses, and on short covering in the futures market. Silver prices are also slightly up, following gold.

    In other overnight news, the Euro zone Markit composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 56.7 in September from 55.7 in August. A reading of 55.6 was expected. A number above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.


    The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower.

    Most of Wednesday's strong gains have now been given back. Greenback bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are near steady this morning. The oil bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage as prices hover above $50 a barrel.

    U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the flash services PMI and the flash manufacturing PMI.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 22 Sep 2017 11:58:12 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/22/risk-aversion-returns-to-marketplace-amid-new-north-korea-threats/ Global Equity Markets Rally In Wake Of Hawkish Fed Meeting https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/21/global-equity-markets-rally-in-wake-of-hawkish-fed-meeting/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly higher overnight, in the wake of an upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the U.S. day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are near their recent record highs.

    Gold prices are solidly lower and have hit a three-week low following the hawkish Fed meeting this week and the "risk-on" trader and investor attitudes at present.

    World markets are still digesting the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that ended Wednesday with Fed Chair Janet Yellen's press conference. The Fed did not raise interest rates but did announce that in October it will start reducing its big balance sheet of U.S. securities. The aforementioned moves were not surprising. What is surprising was the Fed's upbeat tone on the U.S. economy despite two major hurricanes that just hit the U.S. mainland. A December interest rate hike remains on the table and the Fed also wants to raise interest rates three times in 2018.


    The U.S. dollar rallied strongly on the hawkish Fed stance, while U.S. Treasury prices sold off. U.S. stock indexes ended the day mixed Wednesday.

    In overnight news, Standard & Poors lowered China's sovereign credit rating due to that country's debt levels. It was the first S&P downgrade of China's credit rating since 1999.

    The Bank of Japan Thursday left its monetary policy unchanged at the regular BOJ meeting. No changes in policy were expected.

    The key outside markets on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker after Wednesday's strong gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are weaker this morning. The oil bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage as prices hover just above $50 a barrel.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, the monthly house price index, and leading economic indicators.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 21 Sep 2017 11:50:38 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/21/global-equity-markets-rally-in-wake-of-hawkish-fed-meeting/ Markets Pause As FOMC Meeting Begins Tuesday https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/19/markets-pause-as-fomc-meeting-begins-tuesday/ (Kitco News) - Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Traders and investors worldwide are a bit cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.

    Gold prices are slightly higher in pre-U.S. day session trading, on some tepid short covering following recent selling pressure that pushed prices to a three-week low on Monday.

    The markets' highlight of the week is the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No interest rate changes are expected from the FOMC at this meeting. However, it is expected the Fed will announce it is drawing down its balance sheet of securities. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference after the FOMC meeting ends. Also, the Federal Reserve will release inflation projections that will be closely scrutinized.


    President Trump speaks in front of the United Nations in New York Tuesday. It's expected that Trump will talk about North Korea's missile program.

    In overnight news, the German ZEW economic expectations index came in at 87.9 in September from 86.7 in August.

    The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index weaker.

    The greenback bears remain in firm technical control. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are trading firmer this morning. The oil bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, import and export prices, and new residential construction.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 19 Sep 2017 11:47:14 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/19/markets-pause-as-fomc-meeting-begins-tuesday/ World Trader/Investor Attitudes Mostly Upbeat To Start Trading Week https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/18/world-traderinvestor-attitudes-mostly-upbeat-to-start-trading-week/ (Kitco News) - Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are near their record highs scored recently.

    Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S.-day-session trading. Less risk aversion in the marketplace the past week has dented the safe-haven metal market bulls.

    The markets' highlight of the week is the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No interest rate changes are expected from the FOMC at this meeting. However, it is expected the Fed will announce it is drawing down its balance sheet of securities.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for August came in at up 0.3% from July and up 1.5%, year-on-year. The August report was right in line with market expectations.


    The European Central Bank said Monday it expects Euro zone inflation to drop to a level of 0.9% in early 2018. However, the ECB said the expected temporary drop will only be a statistical quirk.

    President Trump speaks in front of the United Nations in New York Tuesday. It's expected that Trump will talk about North Korea's missile program.

    The key outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are trading slightly lower this morning.

    U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 18 Sep 2017 11:48:42 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/18/world-traderinvestor-attitudes-mostly-upbeat-to-start-trading-week/ Markets Shrug Off Latest N. Korea Missile Launch; Busy U.S. Reports Day https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/15/markets-shrug-off-latest-n-korea-missile-launch-busy-u-s-reports-day/ (Kitco News) - Global stock markets traded narrowly mixed overnight and U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are slightly lower in pre-U.S.-day-session trading.

    The marketplace is so far showing a very muted reaction to the news North Korea has fired another ballistic missile over Japan. The U.N. Security Council is holding an emergency meeting today on the matter. On Thursday North Korea threatened to "sink Japan" with its nuclear missiles and also to reduce the U.S. mainland "to ashes." The big unknown in this situation is how far will President Trump be pushed before he responds with military force.


    In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its wage growth in second quarter was up 2.0%, which is the highest rate in more than two years. This report suggests inflation in the Euro zone is also on the rise.

    The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower.

    Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are trading near steady this morning.

    It's a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Friday, including the retail sales report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 15 Sep 2017 11:50:51 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/15/markets-shrug-off-latest-n-korea-missile-launch-busy-u-s-reports-day/ World Stock Markets Weaker; U.S. Inflation Data, BOE Meeting In Focus https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/14/world-stock-markets-weaker-u-s-inflation-data-boe-meeting-in-focus/ (Kitco News) - Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. Some weak economic data coming out of China dented investor risk appetite. Industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales were all lower than expected in August. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are near steady in pre-U.S. day-session trading.

    The marketplace is awaiting the conclusion of the Bank of England's regular monetary policy meeting Thursday. The BOE is not expected to make any changes in its monetary policy.

    The key U.S. economic data point of the week is Thursday's consumer price index report for August. That report is expected to show a rise of 0.4%. Notions are growing that low inflation in the U.S. and the Euro zone will keep the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank from tightening their monetary policies as soon as they would like.


    The key outside markets on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower.

    Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are higher this morning.

    Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and real earnings.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 14 Sep 2017 11:47:48 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/14/world-stock-markets-weaker-u-s-inflation-data-boe-meeting-in-focus/ Global Stock Markets Mixed In Quieter Trading https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/13/global-stock-markets-mixed-in-quieter-trading-2/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on some mild profit taking. The U.S. stock indexes have set record highs this week.

    Gold prices are higher in pre-U.S.-session trading. Gold prices are still in a near-term uptrend despite some profit-taking pressure seen this week.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its July industrial output rose by 0.1% from June and was up 3.2%, year-on-year.

    The key outside markets on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are higher this morning.


    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the producer price index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stock report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

    The key U.S. economic data point of the week is Thursday's consumer price index report for August. That report is expected to show a rise of 0.4%. Notions are growing that low inflation in the U.S. and the Euro zone will keep the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank from tightening their monetary policies as soon as they would like.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 13 Sep 2017 11:46:13 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/13/global-stock-markets-mixed-in-quieter-trading-2/ Risk Appetite Remains Robust As World Stock Markets Higher https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/12/risk-appetite-remains-robust-as-world-stock-markets-higher/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly firmer again overnight. Early this week has seen trader and investor risk appetite return to the world marketplace. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at or near record highs. The world stock markets are so far "thumbing their noses" at what have been historically troublesome months of September and October.

    News the United Nations Security Council late Monday imposed new sanctions on North Korea that were not as harsh as the U.S. wanted is being perceived as somewhat de-escalating the tensions between the U.S. and North Korea.

    Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S.-session trading, on more profit taking and on the "risk-on" trader mentality in the marketplace early this week.


    The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are also slightly lower this morning.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the NFIB small business index.

    The key U.S. economic data point of the week is Thursday's consumer price index report for August. That report is expected to show a rise of 0.4%. Notions are growing that low inflation in the U.S. and the Euro zone will keep the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank from tightening their monetary policies as soon as they would like. However, recent economic data from China and the U.K. do point to a modest pick-up in inflation. On Tuesday the August producer price index in the U.K. was reported up 0.6% from July and up 2.9%, year-on-year.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 12 Sep 2017 11:44:46 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/12/risk-appetite-remains-robust-as-world-stock-markets-higher/ Is the Gold Price Going Up from Last Week's One-Year High? https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/11/is-the-gold-price-going-up-from-last-weeks-one-year-high/ Not only did the gold price manage to stay above the $1,300 resistance level last week, but the metal surely and steadily climbed even higher. From Friday, Sept. 1, to Friday, Sept. 8, the price of gold gained 1.6% to $1,351.

    Gold was clearly buoyed by the U.S. dollar's plunge to a nearly three-year low. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - which measures the greenback against other currencies like the yen and the euro - dropped from 92.81 to 91.33 last week. That was the lowest since December 2014.

    But North Korea's testing of a hydrogen bomb - considered the country's most powerful to date - on Sunday, Sept. 3, sent gold prices higher. On Tuesday, Sept. 5, the price of gold jumped 1.1% to $1,345.

    Despite falling since then to $1,339 today (Monday, Sept. 11), gold is now up 16.2% in 2017, easily beating the S&P 500's 10.9% gain since then.

    Some indicators are starting to place the metal in overbought territory. While this could lead to a brief dip, I remain bullish on gold in the medium and longer terms. Today, I'm going to share with you my bullish gold price target for the end of 2017.

    First, let's look at gold's 1.6% rise last week...


    Gold Price Gains 1.6% Last Week (Sept. 1-8)

    After settling at $1,330 on Friday, Sept. 1, the metal opened higher following Labor Day and North Korea's hydrogen bomb test. The news urged investors to sell their stocks and move into safe-haven gold on Tuesday, dragging the Dow Jones 1% on the day and boosting the gold price 1.1% to $1,345.

    On Wednesday, Sept. 6, the price of gold opened lower at $1,339. It moved sideways at that level throughout the day as the DXY was also mostly flat. Gold prices closed the session at the opening level of $1,339 - 0.4% down from Tuesday's close.

    Here's a look at the DXY's performance last week...

    But gold prices rebounded on Thursday, as the dollar sold off from 92.29 to 91.66. Gold climbed steadily throughout the session to eventually settle at $1,350 for a 0.8% gain.

    Friday was marked by record closes for both the gold price and DXY...

    After opening lower, the dollar stayed below the previous close the entire day and eventually settled at 91.33 - the lowest since December 2014.

    Meanwhile, the price of gold gained 0.1% on the day to close at a one-year high of $1,351. With that, gold logged a weekly gain of 1.6%.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he's only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the "Halley's Comet of investing" - and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more...

    The gold price today is down 0.9%, to $1,339, from Friday's one-year high. This is due to a 25 basis-point rebound in the DXY, which hovers near 91.72 right now.

    While we can never tell what North Korea will do next, one factor that will continue to be fundamentally important for gold is the dollar. With the greenback down near a three-year low, the dollar's movement from now until the end of the year will play a large role in my gold price forecast for the rest of 2017.

    Here's where I see gold heading in the near and long term...

    These Are My 2017 Gold Price Targets

    If we look at the dollar's decline this year, I think we can better gauge where gold prices are heading next.

    The DXY peaked at 103 at the start of the year and has since fallen to 91.72, which is roughly 11%. That's a huge move for any currency over just an eight-month span.

    But for the world's de facto reserve currency, it's huge...


    Not only had the MACD momentum indicator moved upward in August as the DXY fell, but recent Commitment of Traders (COT) reports show speculators' positions reaching near extreme bearish levels. The report from the week ended Aug. 25 showed traders and hedge funds were their most bearish on the dollar in three years.

    Of course, this is a contrarian signal, indicating we may be near a dead cat bounce for the dollar. This is when an asset that's been declining for an extended period of time sees a brief rebound before continuing its fall.

    If it's a dead cat bounce, the DXY could be boosted back up to the 94 or 95 levels, likely weighing on gold prices in the near term...


    And gold's strong rally of the past month has put its relative strength index (RSI) and MACD (highlighted yellow above) into potentially overbought territory. So I still see a good chance for gold to pull back in the near term, possibly testing the $1,300 level in the next month or so. Even if that happens, it would be just a 2.9% decline from today's price of $1,339.

    Finally, if we look at gold's performance across major currencies since the start of this year, the results are impressive...


    Since Jan. 1, gold is up when priced in the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen.  This kind of international bullish price action is a sign of a major bull market beginning.

    I still think gold has much, much higher to go. I expect to see a serious run to $1,400 before the end of 2017. That would be a gain of 4.6% from today's price.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorning, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 11 Sep 2017 17:47:00 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/11/is-the-gold-price-going-up-from-last-weeks-one-year-high/ Investor Risk Appetite Upticks To Start Trading Week https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/11/investor-risk-appetite-upticks-to-start-trading-week/ (Kitco News) - Global equity markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins Monday. The U.S. stock indexes are back near their recent record highs.

    Traders and investors worldwide are somewhat assuaged by news that Hurricane Irma, while still devastating much of Florida, was not the catastrophic storm that many weather forecasters thought would occur. Also, North Korea did not launch another missile over the weekend. Saturday was a North Korean holiday and many thought the rogue nation would show its military might.


    Gold prices are seeing selling pressure amid the better risk appetite in the world marketplace to start the trading week. The metal is also seeing some profit taking from recent good gains.

    The key outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index firmer on mild short covering after hitting a 2.5-year low last week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly higher this morning.

    There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 11 Sep 2017 11:44:58 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/11/investor-risk-appetite-upticks-to-start-trading-week/ World Stock Markets Weaker Heading Into Uneasy Weekend https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/08/world-stock-markets-weaker-heading-into-uneasy-weekend/ (Kitco News) - Global equity markets were mostly weaker overnight, heading into an uncertain weekend that sees a major hurricane bearing down on Florida and a still-very-worrisome U.S.-North Korea geopolitical situation. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are higher and hit a 12-month high overnight, on more safe-haven demand and amid a depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market.

    The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower and at a fresh 2.5-year low. The sharp declines in the greenback this week are becoming a worrisome factor for world financial markets. Combined with Hurricane Harvey smashing Texas last week, Hurricane Irma giving Florida a direct hit in the coming days could produce enough economic damage in the U.S. to prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again this year.


    Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly lower this morning.

    U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the monthly wholesale trade report and consumer credit.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 08 Sep 2017 11:49:42 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/08/world-stock-markets-weaker-heading-into-uneasy-weekend/ Markets Quieter, Awaiting ECB Meeting Results; Euro Could Become Volatile https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/07/markets-quieter-awaiting-ecb-meeting-results-euro-could-become-volatile/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were narrowly mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are firmer in pre-U.S.-day-session trading. The gold bulls remain in firm technical control, to suggest more sideways-to-higher price action in the near term.

    The major economic data point of the week is Thursday's European Central Bank monetary policy meeting, including a press conference from ECB President Mario Draghi after the meeting. Traders and investors are wondering if the ECB will announce a scaling back of its years-long bond-buying program, called quantitative easing. However, most do not expect the ECB to make any monetary policy changes at this meeting. However, Draghi could provide clues on the matter at his press conference. The Euro currency could become volatile in FOREX trading, in the wake of the ECB meeting and Draghi's press conference.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone revised second-quarter gross domestic product report showed a 0.6% rise from the first quarter and was up 2.3%, year-on-year. The annual number was the highest growth rate for the Euro zone since the first quarter of 2011.


    China's central bank on Thursday fixed the country's currency, the yuan, at its highest level against the U.S. dollar in 16 months, reports said.

    Malaysia's central bank left its monetary policy unchanged Thursday, as expected.

    The key outside markets on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower and not far above the recent 15-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are also weaker.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, revised productivity and costs, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 07 Sep 2017 12:15:46 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/07/markets-quieter-awaiting-ecb-meeting-results-euro-could-become-volatile/ Why Silver Prices Will Keep Rising from Today's Five-Month High https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/06/why-silver-prices-will-keep-rising-from-todays-five-month-high/ Silver prices have been outpacing gold's already nice gains over the last month, and they are heading even higher in 2017...

    In August, the price of gold climbed 4.3% while the silver price rallied 5%, capping off a great month for the metal.

    In fact, the price of silver today (Wednesday, Sept. 6) just crossed above the $18 mark for the first time in nearly five months. It's currently up 0.6% to $18.04 - the highest since April 20.

    Silver's rally has been fueled by many of the same reasons as gold's rally. North Korea's two weapons tests - the Aug. 28 missile test that crossed Japan and the Sept. 3 hydrogen bomb test - have stoked fear among investors. The Dow Jones is down 0.7% since last Friday, as worried investors have pulled out of the market and poured into precious metals.

    North Korea's unpredictability - combined with the Sept. 29 debt ceiling deadline - are all bullish for both gold and silver prices moving forward. Both metals spike in demand when the stock market is expected to take a downturn, and those two factors could be bearish for the broader market.

    Silver consistently charged higher this past summer. Prices went from a 15-month low of $15.37 on July 7, to $16.25 on Aug. 4, to today's five-month high of $18.04.

    While these gains are exciting, such a strong rally will likely lead to a short pullback. But remember, these brief declines are healthy when silver is on an unstoppable run higher.

    Today, I'm looking more at where the silver price will be by the end of the year. I'm going to show you just how high I see it running before the end of Q4 2017.

    First, let's look at silver's 4.5% rally last week...

    Silver Prices Climb 4.5% Last Week (Aug. 25 - Sept. 1)

    After closing at $17.05 on Friday, Aug. 25, the price of silver opened last week higher at $17.23. It rallied throughout the session on Monday, Aug. 28, after North Korea made global headlines by launching a missile over Japanese territory.

    This missile test was the first to cross over Japan in eight years, sparking a silver buying spree among investors. Prices eventually settled at $17.44 for a big 2.3% gain from the previous close.

    On Tuesday, Aug. 29, silver managed to climb higher in the premarket hours, reaching $17.53 by the open. But the U.S. dollar climbed nearly 100 basis points throughout the day, which dragged the silver price back toward the Monday close. It moved mostly flat from there and closed the day just 0.05% lower at $17.43.

    This chart shows how the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - which measures the dollar against several other currencies like the euro and Japanese yen - performed between Tuesday, Aug. 29, and Tuesday, Sept. 5...


    The price of silver saw another small loss on Wednesday, as the DXY rallied from 92.25 to 92.88 by market close. Silver responded by opening lower at $17.37 and drifting sideways to close at $17.40. That marked a 0.2% decline from Tuesday's $17.43 close.

    Thursday finally brought more silver gains, as the dollar peaked above 93.40 and fell back to 92.67 by the close. That caused the silver price to open lower at $17.32 before climbing to $17.58 by the end of the day for a 0.9% gain. With that, silver posted a gain of 5% for the month of August.

    On Friday, Sept. 1, silver prices started the day lower at $17.50. But that weakness didn't last long, as prices shot up to $17.66 by midday. The metal eventually closed at $17.82 for a 1.4% rise for the day and a 4.5% gain for the week.

    Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he’s only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the “Halley’s Comet of investing” – and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more…

    Sunday's news of North Korea's underground hydrogen bomb test sent silver soaring over the Labor Day holiday and into yesterday (Tuesday, Sept. 5). Silver prices climbed 0.7% throughout the day to settle at $17.94.

    The silver price today continues the recent rally as the metal reaches above the $18 level for the first time since April 20. It's up 0.6% and trading at $18.04.

    Looking at last week's 4.5% gain, it's clear any future weapons tests out of North Korea could be bullish for the silver price in 2017.

    But even without North Korea's continued hostility, I see the metal heading much higher by the end of the year, even if it sees a bit of weakness in the next month or so.

    Here's my silver price outlook...

    My Bullish Silver Price Target for the End of Q4 2017

    After a 5% rally in August and a 2.6% gain already in September, what could be in store for silver in the near and long term?

    In the near term, I think silver's looking pretty extended right now. A 7.6% gain over the last five weeks isn't what I'd call a "breakneck pace," but it does suggest either a rest or a pullback could materialize soon.

    But if you look at this chart, you'll see that silver's resistance levels are $17.94 on the lower end and $18.50 on the higher end...


    I think $18.50 could prove to be a challenge, forming resistance for silver. If the DXY bounces higher, then silver could easily retreat to $17.94. While falling back below $18 would be psychologically significant, a drop to $17.94 would only be a 0.6% dip from today's price of $18.04.

    Once that happens, I see the metal heading back into the $18 range, comfortably staying there and eventually reaching $18.50 in the next few months. That's up 3.1% from today's price.

    Beyond that, I believe we could see silver prices rally to $20.50 before 2018. A $20.50 silver price would mark a 13.6% gain from today's price and the highest level since September 2016.

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing."

    It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors.

    Click here to check out his research

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 06 Sep 2017 18:54:19 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/06/why-silver-prices-will-keep-rising-from-todays-five-month-high/ Global Equity Markets Jittery Amid Worries On Several Fronts https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/06/global-equity-markets-jittery-amid-worries-on-several-fronts/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight, on a bevy of concerns in the marketplace. The historically turbulent months of September and October for equities are starting out in just such a manner. A recent spate of weaker-than-expected economic data coming out of the U.S. and European Union have many thinking their central banks will back off on tightening their monetary policies any time soon.

    Also, Hurricane Irma is bearing down on the Caribbean and later on this week is likely to hit Florida. Irma is the strongest hurricane in recorded history. And then there's the ongoing North Korea-U.S. crisis that appears to be getting worse. All of the above have stock market investors and traders in a risk-averse mood. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Financial stocks around the world were under pressure from dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, who said Tuesday the Fed should wait until annual inflation hits 2.0% before raising interest rates again.

    Gold prices are near steady as the safe-haven metal pauses after scoring an 11-month high on Tuesday. Gold bulls are in firm technical control.


    The major economic data point of the week is Thursday's European Central Bank monetary policy meeting, including a press conference from ECB President Mario Draghi after the meeting.

    The key outside markets on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index weaker and not far above the recent 15-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are firmer.

    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the international trade report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the ISM non-manufacturing report on business, and the Federal Reserve's beige book.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 06 Sep 2017 11:45:35 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/06/global-equity-markets-jittery-amid-worries-on-several-fronts/ World Markets Digesting Latest North Korea Nuke Test https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/05/world-markets-digesting-latest-north-korea-nuke-test/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed overnight. Asian stocks were mostly lower and European stocks were mostly higher overnight as investors and traders around the world have had two days to digest the latest North Korea nuclear bomb test, which is reported to be the biggest bomb yet. The U.S. says North Korea is "begging for war" as this major geopolitical matter is ratcheted up yet another notch.

    U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. traders are seeing their first day back at work Tuesday, following the Labor Day holiday weekend.

    Gold prices are higher and hit a 10-month high overnight, on safe-haven demand amid the North Korea crisis.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone Markit purchasing managers' composite index (PMI) came in at 55.7 in August, which is just below market expectations for a reading of 55.8. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. Euro zone retail sales in July were reported down 0.3% from June and up 2.6%, year-on-year.


    The major economic data point of the week is Thursday's European Central Bank monetary policy meeting, including a press conference from ECB President Mario Draghi after the meeting.

    The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower and not far above the recent 15-month low. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures higher. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the ISM New York report on business, manufacturers' shipments and inventories and the employment trends index.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 05 Sep 2017 11:42:33 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/05/world-markets-digesting-latest-north-korea-nuke-test/ Global Stock Markets Up; Jobs Report Highlights Busy U.S. Data Day https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/01/global-stock-markets-up-jobs-report-highlights-busy-u-s-data-day/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly higher again overnight as investor risk appetite quickly returned to the world marketplace after North Korea fired a missile over Japan on Tuesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are at or close to record highs.

    Gold prices are slightly lower on a corrective pullback from good gains posted Thursday, in which prices closed at a technically bullish monthly high close.

    Traders and investors are awaiting the major U.S. data point of the week and arguably of the month: Friday morning's employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The non-farm jobs number is forecast to come in at up around 180,000. However, Wednesday's higher-than-expected ADP jobs number has many thinking Friday's employment report will be a miss to the upside. The wage-growth component of the jobs report will also be an important number. Look for many markets to become more active in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report, especially if it's a miss from market expectations.

    However, then look for U.S. trading activity do die down quickly, as many traders will hit the exit doors early to get a jump on the three-day Labor Day holiday weekend. Some U.S. markets close early Friday.


    In overnight news, the Euro zone August manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 57.4, which was right in line with market expectations.

    China's Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6. A number above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. China's stock markets were boosted by the PMI data.

    The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early Friday. The greenback bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

    The other key outside market sees Nymex crude oil futures lower. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

    There is a heavy slate of other U.S. economic data due for release Friday, including the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report on business, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 01 Sep 2017 11:37:26 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/09/01/global-stock-markets-up-jobs-report-highlights-busy-u-s-data-day/ Keener Investor/Trader Risk Appetite Boosts World Stock Markets https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/31/keener-investortrader-risk-appetite-boosts-world-stock-markets/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly higher overnight as investor risk appetite has up-ticked quickly after Tuesday's latest provocation from North Korea, in which it fired a missile over Japan. Upbeat economic data from the U.S., China and the European Union is keeping investors in a positive mood. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker on the better investor risk appetite and on some more profit taking from recent gains that saw prices earlier this week hit an 11-month high.

    Today is the last trading day of the month, which makes it a more important day from a charts perspective. A monthly high or low close in a market today would be very significant, from a technical perspective.

    In overnight news, inflation in the Euro zone came in higher than expected, at up 1.5% in August, year-on-year. The July reading was up 1.3%. The European Central Bank wants to see annual inflation of around 2.0%. Also, Euro zone unemployment held steady in July, at 9.1%.

    China on Thursday reported its August manufacturing purchasing managers' index at 51.7, which was above market expectations. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

    The major U.S. data point of the week is Friday's employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number was forecast to come in at up around 180,000. However, Wednesday's higher-than-expected ADP jobs number has many thinking Friday's employment report will also be a surprise to the upside.


    The U.S. dollar index is higher early Thursday, on more short covering after hitting a 15-month low on Tuesday. The greenback bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

    The other key outside market sees Nymex crude oil futures firmer on short covering. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, pending home sales and the monthly retail chain store sales reports.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 31 Aug 2017 11:50:35 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/31/keener-investortrader-risk-appetite-boosts-world-stock-markets/ Risk Appetite Quickly Returns To Marketplace After Tuesday North Korea Incident https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/30/risk-appetite-quickly-returns-to-marketplace-after-tuesday-north-korea-incident/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, on corrective bounces from selling pressure seen Tuesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. As has been the case recently, North Korea's latest provocation to the U.S. by launching a missile over Japan Tuesday has not had a lasting impact on trader and investor risk aversion.

    Gold prices are slightly lower on some mild profit taking from recent gains that pushed the yellow metal to an 11-month high on Tuesday.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone's economic sentiment indicator reached its highest reading in over 10 years in August. The number came in at 111.9 compared to 111.2 in July. This report falls into the camp of the Euro zone monetary policy hawks, who want the European Central Bank to wind down its bond-buying (quantitative easing) program that has been in place for years.

    The key outside markets on Wednesday see the U.S. dollar index higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a 15-month low Tuesday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly lower. The hurricane and ensuing torrential rains that have flooded the Houston, Texas region, including major gasoline refineries, will reduce supplies of U.S. gasoline, but also reduce demand for crude oil, in the coming weeks, or longer.


    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, second-quarter gross domestic product, preliminary corporate profits, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    The major U.S. data point of the week is Friday's employment situation report for August from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is forecast to come in at up around 180,000.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 30 Aug 2017 11:41:55 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/30/risk-appetite-quickly-returns-to-marketplace-after-tuesday-north-korea-incident/ Is the Price of Gold Up or Down After North Korea's Missile Launch? https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/29/is-the-price-of-gold-up-or-down-after-north-koreas-missile-launch/ price of gold

    After rising 1.3% to an 11-month high of $1,315.30 yesterday, the price of gold today (Tuesday, Aug. 29) is climbing again following North Korea's latest missile launch. Gold prices are up another 1.1% today to $1,329.10.

    While gold investors are focused on this North Korea news right now, Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth is watching a different gold price catalyst...

    This catalyst is a U.S. government deadline (just one month away) that could be responsible for the next gold price rally in 2017 if members of Congress don't agree on an important issue.

    If they don't, we could see a stock market sell-off as big as 2.7% in one month. This would be bullish for gold prices, as investors buy precious metals as a hedge against stock losses.

    First, here's why North Korea's latest missile launch is sending the gold price higher today...

    Why the Price of Gold Is Up 1.1% After North Korea's Missile Test

    Gold prices are up 1.1% today and trading at $1,329.10 after the rogue nation launched its 18th missile test of 2017 last night.

    Previously, the gold price hadn't reacted at all to North Korean missile tests this year. The country has conducted 11 different tests since April 4. For those 11 tests, the average gold price movement for the session immediately following the tests has only been a gain of 0.1%.

    But the metal is rallying today because yesterday's missile crossed directly over Japan and landed in the sea, which caused Japanese citizens in its path to take cover. While North Korean missiles have reached Japanese airspace before, yesterday's was the first since 2009 and third since 1998.

    "North Korea's reckless action of launching a missile that passed over Japan is an unprecedented, serious, and grave threat," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said.

    This was North Korea's most provocative move yet, sending the Dow Jones down 0.2% and gold up 1.1%.

    Look for the X: This mysterious "X" pattern predicts which stocks are going up - with 100% certainty. Some have gained as much as 225% in 15 days and 264% in less than a month. Learn more...

    While this missile test in North Korea is having a short-term impact on gold, Peter is looking ahead to a government event on Sept. 29. This event involves U.S. government officials coming together to agree on an important issue.

    And if they don't, it would likely cause a much bigger stock market decline than today's 0.2% drop. In fact, this September event could drag the Dow Jones 2.7% lower or more in just one month - a move that could also push the price of gold to Peter's bullish target by the end of the year.

    Here's how this rapidly approaching government deadline will reward gold investors...

    This Upcoming Event Could Boost Gold Prices in 2017

    The looming Sept. 29 deadline to raise the debt ceiling could end up boosting the price of gold through the end of the year.

    In a nutshell, the debt ceiling limits how much debt the federal U.S. government can carry at any given time. The current debt level of $19.9 trillion is just under the current ceiling of $20.1 trillion, and the U.S. Department of the Treasury can't borrow the money it needs to fund the government.

    Unless Congress agrees to raise that ceiling by Sept. 29, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin says the government will essentially run out of money and will no longer be able to cover current deficits and expenses.

    The biggest consequence of not raising the debt ceiling is a potential credit downgrade. Right now, the United States has a pristine AAA credit rating - meaning the country has the smallest risk of not paying back money that's been borrowed. But not raising the ceiling could urge ratings agency Fitch to downgrade that rating to AA.

    U.S. downgrades have historically caused stock market sell-offs. The last time ratings agency S&P downgraded the United States on Aug. 5, 2011, the Dow Jones plunged 2.7% over the following month. On April 5, 2012, Egan-Jones Ratings Co. lowered U.S. credit from AA+ to AA, dragging the Dow Jones 1% lower in just two sessions.

    If the debt ceiling isn't lifted by the deadline and Fitch issues a downgrade, another sell-off as big as 2.7% is certainly possible. This would likely boost gold prices as investors rush to buy the metal as a portfolio hedge. The Aug. 5, 2011, downgrade sent the price of gold soaring 13.6% in just one month.

    According to Krauth, this would help lift gold 5.3% to his bullish end-of-year price target.

    "I will keep you updated on this major deadline as it gets closer in the coming weeks," Krauth told Money Morning Members on Aug. 25. "I believe the gold price can reach $1,400 by the end of the year."

    Up Next: Rare Gold Anomaly

    Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon just caught something on his gold charts that he's only seen twice in the past 20 years. A $13 billion gold anomaly he calls the "Halley's Comet of investing." It's very rare, and fleeting, and Bill sees things lining up perfectly to bring some very sizable precious metal profits to well-positioned investors. Click here to check out his research...

    Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorningFacebook, and LinkedIn.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 29 Aug 2017 17:31:41 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/29/is-the-price-of-gold-up-or-down-after-north-koreas-missile-launch/ World Markets On Edge After North Korea Fires Missile Over Japan https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/29/world-markets-on-edge-after-north-korea-fires-missile-over-japan/ (Kitco News) - News that North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan has rattled world markets. Global stock indexes are lower and safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries are higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices hit an 11-month high overnight, as a combination of safe-haven demand and technical buying are boosting the yellow metal.

    The Euro currency hit another 2.5-year high overnight, while the Japanese yen also surged on safe-haven demand from Asian traders and investors. The U.S. dollar index dropped to another 15-month low. The greenback is being further hobbled by the hurricane damage in Texas, which is likely to reduce U.S. GDP in the third quarter.

    It now appears the ball is in the Trump administration's court after North Korea's latest provocation. North Korea is seemingly daring the U.S. to make a military move, after recent tough talk that has come from the U.S.


    The other outside market finds Nymex crude oil futures slightly lower Tuesday. The hurricane and ensuing torrential rains have flooded the Houston, Texas region, including major gasoline refineries. This will reduce supplies of U.S. gasoline, but also demand for crude oil, in the coming weeks, or longer. That's bearish for crude and bullish for gasoline futures.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, and the consumer confidence index. The major U.S. data point of the week is Friday's employment situation report from the Labor Department.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 29 Aug 2017 11:45:48 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/29/world-markets-on-edge-after-north-korea-fires-missile-over-japan/ Global Stock Markets Weaker; Euro Currency Hits 2.5-Year High https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/28/global-stock-markets-weaker-euro-currency-hits-2-5-year-high/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly lower to start the trading week. Traders and investors were disappointed that last week's Jackson Hole, Wyoming central bankers meeting did not offer any new guidance on the monetary policies of the world's major central banks. U.K. markets are closed Monday for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are higher and have pushed above the key $1,300.00 level in overnight trading. A slumping U.S. dollar index is supporting the gold market bulls.

    In another sign of worrisome deflationary pressures gripping world economies, the German government on Monday set a zero percent coupon on its two-year government note (Schatz) to be auctioned Tuesday.

    The key "outside markets" early Monday see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a multi-month low. The greenback bears remain in firm near-term technical control to suggest still more downside pressure on the greenback.

    The Euro currency rose to a 2.5-year high overnight as ECB president Mario Draghi last Friday at his Jackson Hole speech failed to mention the Euro's strength. Traders took that to mean Draghi must not be that worried about the Euro's recent appreciation.


    Nymex crude oil futures are weaker Monday. A hurricane has flooded a Houston, Texas and surrounding areas, including a major gasoline refinery. This will impact supplies of U.S. gasoline, and demand for crude oil, in the coming weeks.

    U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the advance economic indicators report and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey. The major U.S. data point of the week is Friday's employment situation report from the Labor Department.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 28 Aug 2017 11:47:53 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/28/global-stock-markets-weaker-euro-currency-hits-2-5-year-high/ Why Gold Prices Will Rise as Debt Ceiling Deadline Nears https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/25/why-gold-prices-will-rise-as-debt-ceiling-deadline-nears/ Gold prices have been in a narrow trading range over the last week, hanging mostly between $1,291 and $1,297 since Friday, Aug. 18. But the looming debt ceiling deadline could be bullish for gold...

    The biggest gold news this past week was Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's visit to the gold deposit at Fort Knox. This, of course, is the Kentucky army post that serves as the U.S. Bullion Depository and home of most of the country's gold reserves.

    Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell visited Fort Knox on Monday. We don't know how much gold they actually saw, but Mnuchin stated it was the first time the vault had opened up to outsiders since a congressional delegation and journalists had access in 1974.

    In fact, inventory hasn't even been taken since 1986, and the last audit took place in 1953. All of this begs the question of why government officials would visit the site now.

    Could the looming debt ceiling deadline on Sept. 29 justify a visit to America's gold? They might want to make sure it's all there just in case the United States can't issue more right now, and it will run out of extraordinary measures to keep the government solvent by the end of September.

    But gold investors are positioned to profit from the controversy. I'll discuss how the debt ceiling debate could actually end up lifting the price of gold to my bullish target by the end of the year.

    First, let's take a look at the gold price's 0.4% rise this past week...

    Gold Prices on Track for 0.4% Gain This Week (Aug. 18 - Aug. 25)

    While day-to-day movements have been uneventful, the metal is still on track for a weekly gain of 0.4% if it closes at the current $1,297 level.

    After settling at $1,292 on Friday, Aug. 18, gold opened lower on Monday at $1,287 despite the DXY falling from 93.50 to 93. But the metal saw a strong recovery during the session and ended the day at $1,297 for a 0.4% gain.

    Life-Changing Profits: This investing strategy has racked up 28 triple-digit wins so far this year - and 42 in the last 12 months. To learn how to get in position for the next one, click here now...

    Tuesday saw the dollar bounce back, regaining all of the previous session's losses. By early morning, the DXY was back above 93.50. That weighed on the gold price, which opened lower at $1,285. Although the metal moved higher from there, it wasn't enough for a gain on the day. Gold prices settled at $1,291 for a 0.5% loss from Monday's close.

    Here's how the dollar has trended since Monday, Aug. 21...

     

    gold prices
    On Wednesday, Aug. 23, the price of gold dropped to $1,289 at the open despite the DXY also falling back in morning trading. But as the dollar fell below 93.25 later in the day, the metal steadily climbed to $1,295 by the close for a 0.3% rise.

    Gold prices closed mostly flat on Thursday as the DXY traded mostly near the 93.25 level throughout the day. After opening sharply lower at $1,287, the metal moved higher during the session to close at $1,292. That marked a 0.2% decline on the day.

    But the price of gold today (Friday, Aug. 25) is trending higher. It's currently up 0.4% and trading at $1,297. If the gold price closes at that level, it will post a weekly gain of 0.4%.

    After a week of hardly any daily movement, now is the best time to look ahead to see how the dollar and the anticipated debt ceiling deadline could influence the gold price in 2017.

    I think both the DXY and Sept. 24 deadline could provide a boost to the metal through the end of the year. In fact, here's precisely where I see gold heading by the end of Q4...

    My Bullish Gold Price Target for the End of 2017

    As I mentioned, gold over the past week has barely budged, trading within the tight $1,291-$1,297 range. Price volatility has been lower than I can remember in a long time.

    Regardless, the price of gold's 12.6% gain this year is now outperforming the S&P 500's 9.4% rise over the same period. This is largely thanks to the metal's stunning 7.2% rebound from the July 7 low...

    price of gold

    Even at current levels, gold is not looking overbought according to the RSI and MACD momentum indicators (highlighted). On that basis, I think prices have a lot of room to move higher.

    Meanwhile, the dollar is also consolidating. And its own RSI and MACD strength indicators suggest there's room for the rebound from its two-and-a-half-year low on Aug. 3 to continue...

    price of gold in 2017

    For now, its uptrend only started three weeks ago, and its price action is confirming its momentum.

    But I still contend the DXY's recent bump is just a dead cat bounce - or a temporary rebound for the long-declining asset. These typically don't last long, meaning the dollar's eventual fallback will be bullish for gold.

    Meanwhile, Mnuchin's timing for a Fort Knox visit is certainly suspicious with the debt ceiling debate heating up ahead of the Sept. 24 deadline...

    In a nutshell, the debt ceiling limits how much debt the federal U.S. government can carry at any given time. The current debt level of $19.9 trillion is just under the current ceiling of $20.1 trillion, and the Treasury Department can't borrow the money it needs to fund the government.

    Unless Congress agrees to raise that ceiling by Sept. 29, Mnuchin says the government will essentially run out of money and no longer be able to cover current deficits and expenses.

    The biggest consequence of not raising the debt ceiling is a potential credit downgrade. Right now, the United States has a pristine AAA credit rating - meaning the country has the smallest risk of not paying back money that's been borrowed. But not raising the ceiling could urge ratings agency Fitch to downgrade that rating to AA.

    U.S. downgrades have historically caused stock market sell-offs. The last time ratings agency S&P downgraded the United States on Aug. 5, 2011, the Dow Jones plunged 2.7% over the following month. On April 5, 2012, Egan-Jones Ratings Company lowered U.S. credit from AA+ to AA, dragging the Dow Jones 1% lower in just two sessions.

    If the debt ceiling isn't lifted by the deadline and Fitch issues a downgrade, another sell-off is certainly possible. This would likely boost gold prices as investors rush to buy the metal as a portfolio hedge. The Aug. 5, 2011, downgrade sent the price of gold soaring 13.6% in just one month.

    I will keep you updated on this major deadline as it gets closer in the coming weeks. While we don't yet know the outcome, I think gold could still keep moving in a sideways pattern, with the $1,300 level becoming the next support level.

    From there, I believe the gold price can reach $1,400 by the end of the year. That would be up 7.9% from today's $1,297 level.

    Up Next: The Gains Keep Coming

    Our Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald has a strategy for his High-Velocity Profits subscribers that sets them up for twice the profit potential of the "average" investor.

    Subscribers who have been following along with his recommendations are racking up wins at a dizzying pace.

    Nine gains in one week alone... 30 triple-digit gains this year... 46 triple-digit wins in the last 12 months...

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    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 25 Aug 2017 17:29:08 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/25/why-gold-prices-will-rise-as-debt-ceiling-deadline-nears/ Markets Quieter, Awaiting Yellen, Draghi Speeches Today In Jackson Hole https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/25/markets-quieter-awaiting-yellen-draghi-speeches-today-in-jackson-hole/ (Kitco   News) - Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight and U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are near steady in pre-U.S.-day-session trading. Gold bulls still have the near-term chart advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

    Many markets have been quieter most of this week, ahead of the highly anticipated annual world central bankers meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that began Thursday and ends Saturday. Featured speakers at the three-day event include Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who is scheduled to speak this morning at 10:00 a.m. EDT. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is slated to speak this afternoon at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

    Traders and investors will closely examine these Jackson Hole speeches and other central bankers' remarks for any clues on future monetary policy moves by the world's major central banks. There are ideas the central bankers will mention generally very low inflation worldwide, which could be extrapolated to mean keeping very accommodative monetary policies in place longer.

    Draghi's remarks are likely to impact the Euro currency, especially after the ECB has recently expressed a bit of concern about the appreciation of the Euro. In recent years the Jackson Hole central bankers confab has significantly moved the markets.


    In overnight news, the closely watched German Ifo business climate index rose to 115.9 in August from 115.5 in July.

    The key "outside markets" early Friday see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. The greenback has been trading choppy and sideways at lower levels during the month of August. Nymex crude oil futures are firmer as a hurricane is bearing down on Texas and a major gasoline refinery. Oil was pressured by that news on Thursday because of ideas a shutdown of the refinery would reduce demand for U.S. crude.

    U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the durable goods orders report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing  to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 25 Aug 2017 11:46:57 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/25/markets-quieter-awaiting-yellen-draghi-speeches-today-in-jackson-hole/ World Markets Quiet, Awaiting Jackson Hole Central Bankers Symposium https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/24/world-markets-quiet-awaiting-jackson-hole-central-bankers-symposium/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly firmer in quieter trading Thursday. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker, amid bearish "outside markets" today-firmer stock markets and U.S. dollar index, and weaker crude oil prices.

    Stock, currency and financial markets have been quieter this week, ahead of the highly anticipated annual world central bankers meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that begins today. Featured speakers at the three-day event include Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Traders and investors will closely examine the Jackson Hole speeches for any clues on future monetary policy moves by the world's major central banks. There are ideas the central bankers will mention very low inflation, which could be extrapolated to mean keeping very accommodative monetary policies in place longer. Draghi's remarks are likely to impact the Euro currency, especially after the ECB has recently expressed a bit of concern about the appreciation of the Euro. In recent years the Jackson Hole central bankers confab has significantly moved the markets.


    The key "outside markets" early Thursday see the U.S. dollar index firmer. The greenback has been trading choppy and sideways at lower levels during the month of August. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are weaker. Trading in oil has also been choppy recently.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, existing home sales, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 24 Aug 2017 11:46:35 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/24/world-markets-quiet-awaiting-jackson-hole-central-bankers-symposium/ Global Equity Markets Mostly Lower In Quiet Summertime Trading https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/23/global-equity-markets-mostly-lower-in-quiet-summertime-trading/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly weaker Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. World stock markets are having a tough month of August, heading into the historically even tougher months of September and October.

    Gold prices are slightly higher in pre-U.S.-session trading. Gold prices are in a near-term uptrend, but struggle when prices approach the key resistance level of $1,300.00.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone Markit composite purchasing managers index came in at 55.8 in August from 55.7 in July. The August number beat market expectations. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

    The marketplace is awaiting the annual central bankers meeting held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Thursday through Saturday. Featured speakers from around the world include Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Traders and investors will closely examine the Jackson Hole speeches for clues on future monetary policy moves by the world's major central banks. In recent years the Jackson Hole central bankers confab has significantly moved the markets.


    The key "outside markets" early Wednesday see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. The greenback has been trading choppy and sideways at lower levels during the month of August. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are also slightly lower. Trading in oil has also been choppy recently.

    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. flash services PMI, the flash manufacturing PMI, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 23 Aug 2017 11:48:32 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/23/global-equity-markets-mostly-lower-in-quiet-summertime-trading/ Global Equities Up; Trading Tentative Ahead Of Jackson Hole Central Bankers Confab https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/22/global-equities-up-trading-tentative-ahead-of-jackson-hole-central-bankers-confab/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly up in quieter trading Tuesday, on corrective bounces from recent selling pressure. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Many of the world stock indexes, including those from the U.S., are down overall for the month of August.

    Gold prices are weaker in pre-U.S.-day-session trading, on some profit taking from recent gains.

    The highlight of the trading week is the annual central bankers meeting held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Thursday through Saturday. Highlights of central bank speakers from around the world include Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The marketplace will closely examine the Jackson Hole speeches for clues on future monetary policy moves by the world's major central banks. In recent years the Jackson Hole central bankers confab has significantly moved the markets.


    In overnight news, the closely watched German ZEW economic expectations index for August came in at 10.0 versus 17.5 in July. The August reading was well below market expectations.

    The key "outside markets" early Tuesday see the U.S. dollar index higher. The greenback has been trending higher during the month of August, but in a choppy fashion. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are weaker. Trading in oil has also been choppy recently.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the house price indexes, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 22 Aug 2017 11:44:40 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/22/global-equities-up-trading-tentative-ahead-of-jackson-hole-central-bankers-confab/ Global Stocks Down; Jackson Hole Central Bankers Meeting In Focus https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/21/global-stocks-down-jackson-hole-central-bankers-meeting-in-focus/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointing toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are up slightly after pushing to a multi-month high on Friday. Gold bulls remain in firm near-term technical control amid a steep price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

    The highlight of the trading week will be the annual central bankers meeting held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Thursday through Saturday. Highlights of central bank speakers from around the world include Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The marketplace will closely examine the Jackson Hole speeches for clues on future monetary policy moves by the world's major central banks. In recent years the Jackson Hole central bankers confab has significantly moved the markets.

    The U.S.-North Korea stand-off regarding North Korea's nuclear missile program is still near the front burner of the marketplace. The U.S. and South Korea will hold joint military exercises this week, which could prompt an angry reaction from North Korea. This matter has prompted safe-haven moves into gold and U.S. Treasuries, and will likely continue to do so for the near term.

    The Trump administration remains in turmoil, and that's also causing some nervousness in the markets, and is a bearish element for the U.S. stock market and bullish for safe-haven assets. The U.S. stock market has become wobbly during the dog days of August, partly on worries about Trump's ability to achieve his objectives amid such controversy. Trump economic advisors resigned last week and advisor Steve Bannon has been fired.


    The world stock market weakness seen just recently could also be in anticipation of the historically stock-market- turbulent months of September and October being just around the corner. It's likely that stock market action and volatility will pick up after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September. That's when most U.S. traders' family vacations are over, their kids are back in school, and European traders will be back from their August vacations.

    The key "outside markets" early Monday see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. The greenback has been trending higher during the month of August. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly higher after posting good gains on Friday. There is an OPEC technical meeting in Vienna, Austria today, to discuss compliance on crude oil production quotas among cartel members.

    U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 21 Aug 2017 11:50:17 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/21/global-stocks-down-jackson-hole-central-bankers-meeting-in-focus/ Why the Gold Price Can Rally Higher in 2017 Thanks to the Dollar https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/18/why-the-gold-price-can-rally-higher-in-2017-thanks-to-the-dollar/ After a strong 2.3% gain for the gold price last week, investors shifted back into selling mode on Monday and Tuesday. However, gold prices are still on track to end this week on a high note. Right now, they're set for a weekly gain of 0.6%.

    The price of gold's rally last week mostly came on the back of a heated exchange between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. After Trump said on Aug. 8 that North Korea would be met with "fire and fury" if it kept threatening the United States, North Korea threatened to launch missiles at Guam.

    But as this new trading week began, the news faded and those tensions abated after Kim Jong Un rescinded the threat. This dragged gold 1.1% lower over the first two days of the week.

    The minutes from the July FOMC meeting were released Wednesday and hung in the foreground as gold prices got a bump up to $1,284. This mostly came from sharp division among Fed members.

    One side of the committee says the Fed should be cautious in today's low inflation environment. Meanwhile, the other side is arguing for more rate hikes this year as a way to curb risks arising from a potential full-employment labor market.

    At the same time, the Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. That has many observers concerned about diminished liquidity, which could benefit gold investors in the process.

    Here's a review of gold's recent price action and where I think gold is headed as we move into the final months of 2017...

    Why the Gold Price Is Up 0.6% This Week (Aug. 11 - Aug. 18)

    After settling at $1,294 on Friday, Aug. 11, the price of gold opened lower at $1,282 on Monday, Aug. 14, as investors moved away from metals and into stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6% that day as gold struggled to break back above the $1,290 level. The metal eventually settled at $1,290, which, despite being above the open, still marked a small 0.3% drop from Friday's close.

    Urgent: An incredibly rare gold anomaly is shaping up in the markets as we speak - one that has occurred ONLY twice in the past 20 years. And it's about to happen again. Details here...

    Tuesday saw an even bigger decline for gold prices as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) spiked above the 94 level in morning trading. That caused a gold sell-off, with prices falling 0.8% to close the day at $1,280.

    Here's a look at dollar's performance this past week...


    Then on Wednesday, Aug. 16, the DXY sold off in anticipation of the Fed's minutes, and it was on track. The Fed's dovish stance on rate hikes thanks to persistently low inflation tanked the dollar 50 basis points from 94 to 93.50 within just two hours. This pushed gold prices to $1,283 by the close for a daily gain of 0.2%.

    The DXY's sell-off continued overnight and into Thursday morning, which boosted gold to $1,288. Prices steadied at that level throughout the day as stocks fell 1.2% and investors sought gold as a safe haven. The metal closed at $1,288 for a 0.4% rise on the day.

    And the gold price today (Friday, Aug. 18) is up another 0.7% and trading at $1,302. If it closes the session at this level, gold will have posted a weekly gain of 0.6%.

    Despite the swinging stock market having the most impact on gold early in the week, I think the U.S. dollar will be a big factor for gold prices the rest of 2017.

    Here's what I forecast for both gold and the dollar over the next four months...

    My Dollar and Gold Price Predictions for the Rest of 2017

    What could we see in gold's future within the current context?

    With the dollar having so much daily price influence on gold, I think the precious metal could continue to consolidate a little longer. That's because I expect the dollar will continue its dead cat bounce - a term for a temporary rebound in a long-declining asset - for a little while still.

    As you can see in the chart below, the dollar is down 9.1% this year, even hitting a two-and-a-half-year low of 92.84 on Aug. 3...


    The DXY only just recently hit an interim bottom before bouncing. It's up 0.6% from that Aug. 3 low.

    In my view, the dollar could climb a bit more, especially if stocks experience a correction in the face of the Fed sounding dovish. It could end up being little more than a short contrarian rally, since the "short dollar" trade had gotten so crowded. I expect the DXY to top out near its 50-day moving average around the 95 level before heading back lower.

    As for the price of gold, I think it could keep rising as the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) - two gold price strength indicators - have also been moving higher...

    All of that being said, I still think gold can reach $1,400 before the year is out, especially with furtive rate hikes and a possibly weaker dollar all looming. That price target marks a 7.5% rally from the current price.

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    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 18 Aug 2017 17:49:08 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/18/why-the-gold-price-can-rally-higher-in-2017-thanks-to-the-dollar/ Keener Risk Aversion In World Marketplace After Spain Terror Attacks https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/18/keener-risk-aversion-in-world-marketplace-after-spain-terror-attacks/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is reacting with keener risk aversion to an ISIS terror attack in Barcelona, Spain Thursday, in which a van rain into a crowd and killed 13 people. A second attack in another town in Spain was thwarted by police, who killed five terrorists.

    Gold prices are higher in pre-U.S. day session trading Friday and hit a 2.5-month high above $1,300 an ounce on some more safe-haven demand and technical buying.

    Traders and investors are also pondering the future progress of the Trump administration's objectives. Many believe the administration is in turmoil.


    Trump's remarks this week on the racial protests in Virginia have alienated him from many U.S. Republican lawmakers. This matter could make the recent U.S. stock market rally at least pause, if not prompt more significant selling pressure heading into the historically turbulent months for the stock market: September and October.

    The key "outside markets" early Friday see the U.S. dollar index modestly lower. However, the greenback bulls have had a good week. A bullish weekly high close in the USDX on Friday would begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly higher after hitting a three-week low Thursday. Rising U.S. shale production has weighed on the oil market late this week. A bearish weekly low close in Nymex crude oil futures on Friday would hint that the uptrend on the daily bar chart has ended.

    U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 18 Aug 2017 11:44:46 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/18/keener-risk-aversion-in-world-marketplace-after-spain-terror-attacks/ Global Equity Markets Mixed In Wake Of Dovish FOMC Minutes https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/17/global-equity-markets-mixed-in-wake-of-dovish-fomc-minutes/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed in overnight trading Thursday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Still, equities bulls are having the better week. There has been a perceived de-escalation in the U.S. and North Korea stand-off regarding its nuclear missiles, which has boosted trader and investor risk appetites. However, this matter will likely be on the front burner of the marketplace soon.

    Gold prices are moderately higher in the aftermath of Wednesday afternoon's FOMC minutes that showed FOMC members split of the prospects of further Federal Reserve interest rate increases in the coming months. Very low inflation readings from major economies around the world, including the U.S., are preventing the Fed from raising interest rates as soon as it would like.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for July came in at down 0.5% from June and was up 1.3%, year-on-year. This is yet another very low inflation reading that falls into the camp of the European Central Bank monetary policy doves.

    European traders were awaiting the release of the minutes of the latest European Central Bank meeting, due out shortly.


    For the key "outside markets" early Thursday, the U.S. dollar index is higher as the greenback bulls are having a good week. A bullish weekly high close in the USDX on Friday would begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly lower and hit another three-week low overnight. Rising U.S. shale production is weighing on the oil market late this week. A bearish weekly low close in Nymex crude oil futures on Friday would hint that the uptrend on the daily bar chart has ended.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, industrial production and capacity utilization and leading economic indicators.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 17 Aug 2017 11:47:46 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/17/global-equity-markets-mixed-in-wake-of-dovish-fomc-minutes/ Global Equity Markets Continue This Week's Rally Amid Risk-On Attitudes https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/16/global-equity-markets-continue-this-weeks-rally-amid-risk-on-attitudes/ World stock markets were mostly higher again Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Equities bulls are having a very good week so far, as there has been a perceived de-escalation in the U.S. and North Korea stand-off regarding its nuclear missiles.

    Reports said the U.S. and South Korean militaries will hold joint exercises next week, which are likely to again rile up North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The U.S.-North Korea matter is not going to go away any time soon. Any flare-up in tensions is likely to see another rush by investors and traders into gold and U.S. Treasuries.

    Gold prices are lower again in pre-U.S.-session trading. The safe-haven metal is taking it on the chin this week amid the keener "risk-on" trading attitudes in the marketplace.

    The focal point of the marketplace Wednesday will be the release of the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that was held in July. There are mixed ideas on what are the Fed's intentions. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she would like to see interest rates rise more, but only gradually. However, recent very weak worldwide inflation reports play into the hands of those wanting the world's central banks to keep their easy-money policies in place.


    In overnight news, the Euro zone gross domestic product report showed second-quarter growth of 0.6% from the first quarter and was up 2.2%, year-on-year. Those numbers were close to market expectations.

    The U.S. dollar index is higher again in early U.S. trading Wednesday and the greenback bulls are having a very good week. The index hit a three-week high on Tuesday. The stronger dollar this week is a negative for the precious metals markets. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading Wednesday. Crude oil prices hit a three-week low Tuesday. Oil traders are now awaiting today's weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stock report, and new residential construction.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 16 Aug 2017 11:41:07 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/16/global-equity-markets-continue-this-weeks-rally-amid-risk-on-attitudes/ Better Investor Risk Appetite Fuels World Stock Markets Rallies https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/15/better-investor-risk-appetite-fuels-world-stock-markets-rallies/ World stock markets were mostly higher again Tuesday, on a further apparent de-escalation of the U.S. and North Korea stand-off regarding its nuclear missiles. North Korean news reports Tuesday said President Kim Jong Un has decided not to fire missiles at Guam. The U.S. secretary of defense and secretary of state, as well as other Trump administration officials, in recent days said they are trying to achieve denuclearization of North Korea through diplomacy. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    The safe-haven assets gold and U.S. Treasury bonds are seeing price pressure from the better risk appetite in the world marketplace so far this week. Gold prices are down about $11.00 an ounce in pre-U.S.-session trading Tuesday.

    However, don't expect the U.S.-North Korea confrontation to just fade away. It's likely this situation will flare up again, and likely sooner rather than later.

     


    In other overnight news, the U.K. consumer price index was reported down 0.1% in July and up 2.6%, year-on-year. Those numbers were a bit less than expected and continue a general pattern of exceptionally low inflation data among the major world economies.

    The U.S. dollar index is higher again in early U.S. trading Tuesday, after posting good gains Monday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Crude oil trading has also been choppy and sideways recently. Stiff overhead resistance at the $50.00 level is keeping the bulls in check, at present.

    The key U.S. economic data point of the day Tuesday is the retail sales report for July. Sales are expected to come in at up 0.4% in July versus down 0.2% in June.

    Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, import and export prices, the Empire State manufacturing survey, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 15 Aug 2017 11:51:05 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/15/better-investor-risk-appetite-fuels-world-stock-markets-rallies/ World Stock Markets Up As U.S.-North Korea Tensions Perceived As Easing A Bit https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/14/world-stock-markets-up-as-u-s-north-korea-tensions-perceived-as-easing-a-bit/ (Kitco News) – Global stock markets were mostly higher Monday, on some easing of fears the U.S. and North Korea are headed toward military conflict soon. The U.S. secretary of defense and secretary of state, as well as other Trump administration officials, on Sunday said they are trying to achieve denuclearization of North Korea through diplomacy. Also, China on Monday said it has banned key North Korean imports.

    Gold prices are weaker on some profit-taking from shorter-term futures traders and on a corrective pullback from recent gains. A slightly less risk-averse marketplace on Monday is also a negative for safe-haven gold.

    In other overnight news, the Euro zone reported its industrial output was down 0.6% in June from May, and up 2.6%, year-on-year. These numbers were below expectations and fall into the camp of the monetary policy doves, who do not want to see the European Central Bank start to tighten its monetary policy.

    Japan's gross domestic product growth came in at a strong 4.0% in the second quarter.

    The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading Monday. Trading has been choppy in the greenback the past week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are modestly lower in early U.S. trading. Crude oil trading has also been choppy and sideways the past week. Stiff overhead resistance at the $50.00 level is keeping the bulls in check, at present.


    There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 14 Aug 2017 12:07:54 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/14/world-stock-markets-up-as-u-s-north-korea-tensions-perceived-as-easing-a-bit/ Sharper Anxiety Continues To Pressure Global Markets https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/11/sharper-anxiety-continues-to-pressure-global-markets/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly lower again overnight, amid the heightened trader and investor anxiety in the marketplace. The U.S.-North Korea tensions have not receded and escalated a bit Thursday as U.S. President Trump again warned North Korea that any military action by that regime against a U.S. friend would prompt a massive response from the U.S.

    He also said Thursday his previous "fire and fury" statement maybe was not tough enough. Some are calling this matter the next Cuban missile crisis. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are modestly higher and hit a two-month high overnight, on continued safe-haven demand that has occurred this week. Noted investor Ray Dalio is reportedly advising investors to have 5% to 10% of their investment portfolio in gold.


    U.S. Treasuries are also seeing increased safe-haven demand this week.

    The U.S. dollar index is modestly higher in early U.S. trading Friday, on some mild safe-haven demand for the greenback. However, the dollar index has not yet been significantly impacted by the U.S.-North Korea face-off.

    Nymex crude oil futures are modestly lower in early U.S. trading. The International Energy Agency has revised down its world oil demand estimate. The IEA also estimated that OPEC members' compliance to their production quotas is only about 75%.

    The key U.S. data point on Friday is the July consumer price index. CPI is forecast to come in at up 0.2%. The June reading was at 0.0%. Inflation data from around the world has been on the weak side recently. Such is going to make it harder for the world's central banks to raise their interest rates.

    Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes real earnings.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 11 Aug 2017 12:05:35 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/11/sharper-anxiety-continues-to-pressure-global-markets/ U.S.-North Korea Tensions Pressure World Stock Markets, Boost Gold https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/10/u-s-north-korea-tensions-pressure-world-stock-markets-boost-gold/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly lower again overnight, amid keener risk aversion. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are higher in pre-U.S. day session trading and hit a nearly two-month high on safe-haven demand.


    North Korea kept up its war talk Thursday by again threatening to unleash an "enveloping fire" in the coming weeks, with a specific target being Guam. On Tuesday U.S. President Trump said the world's strongest military could unleash "fire and fury" on North Korea if that rogue nation keeps threatening the U.S. with nuclear missiles. The U.S. secretary of defense and secretary of state on Wednesday backed up Trump's statement. Japan on Thursday said it would shoot down any North Korean missiles launched at Guam.

    The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, on some safe-haven demand for the greenback. More price strength in the greenback late this week would begin to suggest a market bottom is in place for the dollar index.

    Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are modestly higher and trading just below $50.00 a barrel. The U.S.-North Korea tensions have not significantly impacted crude oil. That's a big change from years past, when crude prices would be seriously impacted by heightened geopolitical tensions. Crude prices have paused the past week, but prices are still in an uptrend from the June low and the bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

    The key U.S. data point on Thursday is the July producer price index. PPI is forecast to come in at up 0.2% from June. The June reading was up 0.1%. Inflation data from around the world has been on the weak side recently. Such is going to make it harder for the world's central banks to raise their interest rates.

    Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 10 Aug 2017 12:01:57 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/10/u-s-north-korea-tensions-pressure-world-stock-markets-boost-gold/ Global Markets Roiled By Trump Warning North Korea Of "Fire and Fury" https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/09/global-markets-roiled-by-trump-warning-north-korea-of-fire-and-fury/ (Kitco News) - There is keener anxiety and risk aversion in the marketplace Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned North Korea there would be "fire and fury like the world has never seen" if North Korea keeps threatening the U.S.

    North Korea, meantime, responded by saying it may fire a missile toward the U.S. territory of Guam. North Korea had recently threatened to use its nuclear weapons against the U.S. after the United Nations slapped more sanctions on the rogue nation. Some U.S. lawmakers have criticized Trump for his remarks Tuesday on North Korea, saying he should tone down his rhetoric.

    World stock markets sold off Wednesday on the heightened U.S.-North Korea tensions. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are solidly higher on safe-haven demand. U.S. Treasuries are also seeing safe-haven buying after Trump's North Korea remarks to reporters in New Jersey on Tuesday.


    The U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker in early U.S. trading Wednesday. The index has been trending lower all year long and the bears have the strong near-term technical advantage. However, more price strength in the greenback this week would begin to suggest a market bottom is in place.

    Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly up and trading just below $50.00 a barrel. OPEC members are meeting this week in Abu Dhabi. That meeting will be closely monitored by energy market watchers.

    In other overnight news, China's consumer price inflation ticked down in July. China's consumer price inflation was reported at up 1.4% in July, year-on-year, versus a rise of 1.5% in June. The July number was slightly lower than expected and continues a string of reports from major world economies that show still-very-low inflation levels.

    There was another apparent terror attack in France Wednesday. Several were injured when a car rammed several French soldiers.

    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, preliminary productivity and costs, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 09 Aug 2017 11:52:39 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/09/global-markets-roiled-by-trump-warning-north-korea-of-fire-and-fury/ Global Markets Steady-Weaker Following Weak Data From China, Germany https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/08/global-markets-steady-weaker-following-weak-data-from-china-germany/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. There was some downbeat economic data coming out of Germany and China Tuesday. China's imports were up 11% in July versus up 17% in June. China's exports were up 7.2% versus up 11.3% in June. Germany's trade surplus grew in June, but its imports and exports declined. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are firmer today, recovering from renewed selling pressure, most of which was profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders.


    North Korea has threatened to use its nuclear weapons against the U.S. after the United Nations slapped more sanctions on the rogue nation. This news could also be prompting a bit of safe-haven demand for gold. This matter won't just go away and will likely get worse before it gets better.

    The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading Tuesday. The index has been trending lower all year long and the bears possess the strong near-term technical advantage.

    Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly up and trading just below

    $50.00 a barrel. Reports overnight said OPEC leader Saudi Arabia is planning to reduce its oil exports to Asia. OPEC members are meeting this week in Abu Dhabi.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 08 Aug 2017 11:38:34 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/08/global-markets-steady-weaker-following-weak-data-from-china-germany/ World Equity Indexes Mostly Up; OPEC Meeting In Focus https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/07/world-equity-indexes-mostly-up-opec-meeting-in-focus/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading, following the gains posted on Wall Street Friday. Focus early this week is on a two-day OPEC meeting. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker on some follow-through selling pressure from Friday's losses that came in the wake of an upbeat U.S. jobs report that favored U.S. monetary policy hawks who would rather see another Fed rate hike soon.

    The U.S. dollar index rallied following the jobs report and closed at a bullish weekly high close Friday. That is an early technical clue that a market bottom is in place. However, the greenback is a bit weaker on a corrective pullback Monday, and is still in a solid price downtrend on the daily chart.

    Nymex crude oil futures are lower in early trading Monday and trading just below $49.00 a barrel. Oil market watchers are awaiting news coming out of this week's OPEC meeting in Abu Dhabi. Many believe some OPEC members are cheating on their production quotas, and the meeting will address that matter.


    U.S. economic data due for release is light Monday, and includes the employment trends index and consumer installment credit.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 07 Aug 2017 11:39:13 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/07/world-equity-indexes-mostly-up-opec-meeting-in-focus/ World Markets On Hold Ahead Of U.S. Jobs Report https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/04/world-markets-on-hold-ahead-of-u-s-jobs-report/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight, in quieter dealings ahead of U.S. jobs report. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are slightly higher in pre-U.S. session trading, on s mild bounce from some profit-taking pressure seen the past couple days.

    Traders awaiting Friday morning's U.S. employment report from the Labor Department, due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. This report is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. Forecasts call for the key non-farm payrolls number to come in at up 180,000. The ADP national employment report on Wednesday showed a rise of 178,000 jobs. The marketplace will also be watching the hourly wage component of the jobs report. A lower-than-expected wage inflation reading could prompt ideas of still-very-low inflation pressures, which could in turn keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates as soon as it would like. A non-farm jobs reading on Friday morning that significantly misses market expectations is likely to impact many markets, including higher volatility in the immediate aftermath of the report.


    The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in pre-U.S. day session trading, on a tepid bounce after hitting a 13-month low on Wednesday. The Euro currency is at a 2.5-year high amid the slumping greenback and on recent generally upbeat economic data coming out of the European Union. The present postures of the dollar index and the Euro currency are still bullish for the precious metals markets.

    Nymex crude oil futures are lower in early trading Friday and trading around $48.50 a barrel. Oil market watchers are looking ahead to next week's OPEC meeting in Abu Dhabi. Many believe some OPEC members are cheating on their production quotas, and the meeting will address that matter.

    Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the international trade report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 04 Aug 2017 11:48:26 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/04/world-markets-on-hold-ahead-of-u-s-jobs-report/ Global Equity Markets Mostly Weaker Despite Record High In Dow Wednesday https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/03/global-equity-markets-mostly-weaker-despite-record-high-in-dow-wednesday/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight, in the wake of the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a record high above 22,000 on Wednesday.

    U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are solidly lower in pre-U.S.-session trading, on profit taking from recent gains and amid a quieter geopolitical front this week.

    In a worrisome report overnight, the Paris-based OECD think tank said global inflation in the 20 largest countries has dropped to its lowest level in eight years. The OECD said consumer prices in the group of countries rose at a 2.0 rate in June, from a year earlier. This news falls into the camp of the monetary policy doves who do not want the major central banks of the world to tighten their monetary policies. The OECD June reading on consumer inflation was up 2.2%.


    A World Gold Council report Thursday shows worldwide demand for gold dropped 10% in the second quarter, versus the same period last year. Demand was down 14% in the first half of 2017. A slowdown in demand for exchange traded funds (ETFs) was mostly to blame, the report said. Other highlights of the report showed slack demand for gold coming out of China, which historically has seen high consumer demand for the metal.

    As of this writing, traders were awaiting the results of the Bank of England's regular monetary policy meeting. No change in policy was expected by the BOE.

    The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in pre-U.S. day session trading, on a tepid bounce after hitting a 13-month low on Wednesday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly higher and trading just below $50.00 a barrel.

    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the global services PMI, the U.S. services PMI, manufacturers' shipments and inventories, the ISM non-manufacturing report on business, and monthly retail chain store sales.

    Traders are looking ahead to Friday's U.S. employment report from the Labor Department. That report is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. Forecasts call for the key non-farm payrolls number to come in at up 180,000. The ADP national employment report on Wednesday showed a rise of 178,000 jobs. A non-farm jobs reading on Friday morning that significantly misses market expectations is likely to shake up many markets.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 03 Aug 2017 11:48:25 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/03/global-equity-markets-mostly-weaker-despite-record-high-in-dow-wednesday/ Global Markets Mixed In Quieter Overnight Dealings https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/02/global-markets-mixed-in-quieter-overnight-dealings/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed in lackluster trading overnight. However, technology shares worldwide were supported by upbeat earnings released Tuesday afternoon from technology leader Apple. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are moderately lower in pre-U.S.-session trading today. The market is seeing some profit taking from recent gains and is pressured a bit as the U.S. dollar has stabilized at mid-week, after its recent selloff.


    In overnight news, India's central bank lowered its key interest rate by 0.25%, to 6.0%. The move was not unexpected.

    The Eurozone producer price index was reported down 0.1% in June from May, and was up 2.5%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

    The important "outside markets" early Wednesday find the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. The index is trying to stabilize at mid-week after hitting a 13-month low Monday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are near steady and trading just above $49.00 a barrel. Oil prices hit a two-month high Tuesday and remain in an uptrend on the daily chart.

    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the ISM New York report on business and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    The big U.S. data point of the week is the monthly employment situation report released by the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of that report is forecast to show a rise of 180,000 workers.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 02 Aug 2017 11:40:03 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/02/global-markets-mixed-in-quieter-overnight-dealings/ Global Stocks Up As Commodity Mkts Rebounding; Busy Day For U.S. Data https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/01/global-stocks-up-as-commodity-mkts-rebounding-busy-day-for-u-s-data/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly higher overnight, boosted in part by upbeat corporate earnings reports and upturns in several raw commodity markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are slightly lower on mild profit taking from recent good gains. The gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in an uptrend on the daily chart.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its gross domestic product at up 0.6% in the second quarter from the first, and up 2.1%, year-on-year. The second quarter saw the best GDP performance for the Euro zone since 2011.

    The Euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 56.6 in July versus 57.4 in June. A reading of 56.8 was expected for July. A number above 50.0 suggests expansion in the sector.

    The July U.K. PMI came in at 55.1 versus 54.2 in June. A reading of 54.9 was expected in July.

    Australia's central bank left its interest rates unchanged at its regular meeting Tuesday.

    The important "outside markets" early Tuesday find the U.S. dollar index slightly higher on a tepid corrective bounce from recent strong downside action that saw the index hit a 13-month low Monday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are near steady and trading just above $50.00 a barrel. Oil prices hit a two-month high overnight.

    It's a busy day for U.S. economic data Tuesday, including the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, personal income and outlays, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report on business, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

    The key report of the week will be Friday's U.S. jobs report for July from the Labor Department. The non-farm payrolls number of that report is expected to be up 180,000.


    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 01 Aug 2017 11:52:31 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/01/global-stocks-up-as-commodity-mkts-rebounding-busy-day-for-u-s-data/ World Stock Markets Mixed; Geopolitics In Focus https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/31/world-stock-markets-mixed-geopolitics-in-focus/ (Kitco News) – Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are slightly lower in pre-U.S.-session trading after scoring a six-week high overnight. The gold bulls still have good upside near-term technical momentum, amid a steep price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

    The weekend news that North Korea launched another ballistic test missile, which experts say could now reach well into the U.S. mainland, is not having a major impact on world markets. However, this matter could well be the next geopolitical flashpoint, as the U.S. says it will not allow North Korea to have such a capability.

    Russia over the weekend announced it is expelling 750 U.S. diplomats in retaliation for U.S.-imposed sanctions on Russia. That news has no impact on markets, but underscores frayed relations between the two super powers.

    In overnight news, there was a batch of economic data coming out of the Euro zone. The June jobless rate was 9.1% versus 9.2% in May. The consumer price index for July came in at up 1.3%, year-on-year, versus the same reading in June.

    China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 51.4 in July. Forecasts called for a reading of 51.6. A number above 50.0 suggests expansion in the sector.

    The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading, on corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. The index hit a 13-month low last week.

    Meantime, the other "outside market" sees Nymex crude oil futures slightly lower on mild profit taking after the market hit a two-month high just above

    $50.00 a barrel overnight. Oil bulls still have upside technical momentum.


    U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the ISM Chicago business survey, pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey. The key report of the week will be Friday's U.S. jobs report for July from the Labor Department. The non-farm payrolls number of that report is expected to be up 180,000.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 31 Jul 2017 12:03:51 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/31/world-stock-markets-mixed-geopolitics-in-focus/ World Equity Markets Lower; U.S. GDP Report On Deck https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/28/world-equity-markets-lower-u-s-gdp-report-on-deck/ (Kitco News) – Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. The near-term technical postures for the U.S. stock indexes are starting to deteriorate. Bearish weekly low closes on Friday would begin to suggest the indexes have put in near-term tops.

    Gold prices are trading slightly lower in pre-U.S.-session action, on a mild corrective pullback from good gains Thursday that pushed the yellow metal to a six-week high.

    The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. second-quarter advance gross domestic product (GDP) report, due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday morning. Forecasts are calling for GDP growth of 2.7% in 2Q, year-on-year, versus the first-quarter reading of up 1.4%.

    In overnight news, the Eurozone economic sentiment index for July came in at 111.2 versus 111.1 in June. The July reading is a 10-year high. The report helped support gains in the Euro currency, which on Thursday hit a two-year high.

    The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading Friday. The index hit a 13-month low on Thursday. The other "outside market" sees Nymex crude oil futures slightly higher. Prices Thursday hit a six-week high. Friday's U.S. rig count number could be a market-mover for oil.


    Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the employment cost index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 28 Jul 2017 11:31:31 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/28/world-equity-markets-lower-u-s-gdp-report-on-deck/ World Stock Markets, Gold, Boosted By Dovish FOMC Statement Wed. PM https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/27/world-stock-markets-gold-boosted-by-dovish-fomc-statement-wed-pm/ (Kitco News) – Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight in the wake of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that produced a statement most of the markets deemed as leaning to the dovish side of U.S. monetary policy. Recent corporate earnings reports have also been mostly upbeat. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher and record high openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold is posting solid gains Thursday in the wake of the dovish Fed statement that pushed the U.S. dollar index to a 13-month low. Reports overnight said India is moving to make "paper" gold (such as sovereign gold bonds) more attractive to its domestic investors, in order to reduce demand for actual gold bullion.

    Traders and investors have mostly digested the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that ended Wednesday afternoon. The Fed did not change U.S. interest rates or monetary policy. No changes were expected. The statement did say the Fed is looking to soon change its policy on its big balance sheet of U.S. securities. That suggested the Fed wants to shrink it sooner rather than later. The marketplace did not perceive the Fed statement to be leaning toward the hawkish side of U.S. monetary policy mainly because many Fed watchers feel the Fed won't raise interest rates until December, if even then. Fed watchers also think the Fed is starting to worry more about deflationary price pressures creeping back into world economies.

    The marketplace is now looking ahead to the U.S. second-quarter advance gross domestic product (GDP) report, due out on Friday morning. Forecasts are calling for that number to come in at up 2.7%, year-on-year versus the first-quarter reading of up 1.4%.

    The U.S. dollar index sold off following the FOMC statement, and is seeing follow-through selling pressure Thursday. The Euro currency, meantime, rose to a nearly two-year high overnight. The Euro has been in a strong price uptrend since early April.

    The other "outside market" on Thursday morning sees Nymex crude oil futures slightly firmer and hitting a six-week high overnight. Crude prices are in a five-week-old uptrend and bulls are eyeing pushing the market above the key $50.00 level soon.


    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and the advance economic indicators report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 27 Jul 2017 11:35:14 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/27/world-stock-markets-gold-boosted-by-dovish-fomc-statement-wed-pm/ Markets On Hold Ahead Of FOMC Meeting Conclusion This P.M. https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/26/markets-on-hold-ahead-of-fomc-meeting-conclusion-this-p-m/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly firmer in subdued trading overnight, as the marketplace awaits today's FOMC meeting conclusion. U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher just ahead of the New York day session.

    Gold prices are moderately lower today on more profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders, after recent price gains.

    Traders and investors are awaiting the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that began Tuesday morning and ends early this afternoon with a statement. No changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected. However, the Fed could indicate the timing of reducing its big balance sheet of U.S. securities. The tone of the FOMC statement will also be important for markets. Just recently Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has sounded a more dovish tone on U.S. monetary policy.

    In overnight news, the U.K.'s second-quarter GDP came in at up 0.3% on the quarter and up 1.7%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

    The "outside markets" on Wednesday morning see Nymex crude oil futures firmer. Prices Tuesday hit a six-week high and the market is in a near-term uptrend. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is near steady as the greenback tries to stabilize after hitting a 13-month low on Tuesday.


    Other U.S. economic data due for release today includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 26 Jul 2017 11:34:31 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/26/markets-on-hold-ahead-of-fomc-meeting-conclusion-this-p-m/ World Stock Markets Mixed, Quiet; FOMC Meeting In Spotlight https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/25/world-stock-markets-mixed-quiet-fomc-meeting-in-spotlight/ (Kitco News) – Global equity markets were steady to narrowly mixed in quieter overnight dealings. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are at or near record highs with no early chart clues to suggest they are topping out.

    Gold prices are moderately lower in pre-U.S. session trading, on some normal profit taking from recent gains that saw prices hit a four-week high on Monday.

    Focus of the world marketplace is on the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that begins Tuesday morning and ends early Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected. However, the Fed could indicate the timing of reducing its big balance sheet of U.S. securities. The tone of the FOMC statement will also be important for markets. Just recently Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has sounded a more dovish tone on U.S. monetary policy.

    In overnight news, the closely watched German Ifo business sentiment index rose to a record 116.0 in July, from 115.2 in June. A July reading of 114.9 was forecast.

    The important "outside markets" on Tuesday morning see Nymex crude oil futures firmer and trading close to $47.00 a barrel. OPEC oil ministers are meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia. Saudi Arabia has chastised cartel member nations for not adhering to their production quotas and has pledged to cut even more of its own oil production levels.

    The U.S. dollar index is firmer today on a corrective bounce after hitting a 13-month low on Monday. The greenback has been on a downhill slide against the other major currencies since January.


    U.S. economic data due for release today includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the monthly house price index, the consumer confidence index, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 25 Jul 2017 11:30:34 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/25/world-stock-markets-mixed-quiet-fomc-meeting-in-spotlight/ World Stock Markets Flat In Quiet, Summertime Trading https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/21/world-stock-markets-flat-in-quiet-summertime-trading/ (Kitco News) – Global equity markets were steady to narrowly mixed overnight, in quieter dealings amid a lack of fresh, major fundamental news to drive the markets.A lazy, hazy summertime trading atmosphere has enveloped U.S. and European stock markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are firmer and hit a three-week high overnight. Prices are in a two-week-old uptrend and bulls have momentum.

    It appears the "take away" from this week's news events and markets' price action is growing notions the major central banks of the world are not in a big hurry at all to tighten their monetary policies, with a major reason being very tame price inflation expectations. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Thursday sounded a surprisingly dovish tone on ECB money policy. The Bank of Japan on Thursday lowered its inflation expectations. And the week before, Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke before the U.S. Congress and suggested the Fed will only very gradually raise U.S. interest rates.

    The aftermath of less hawkish rhetoric coming from world central bankers has seen U.S. stock indexes hit record highs, world government bond yields have dropped, the Euro currency has rallied to a 14-month high, and the U.S. dollar index has hit a 13-month low. Gold has also seen a decent rally the past couple weeks.

    In overnight news, a poll of Euro zone forecasters predicted a 1.5% annual inflation rate for the Euro zone, which is well below the 2.0% annual inflation target the ECB wants.

    The important "outside markets" on Friday morning see Nymex crude oil futures slightly higher and trading above $47.00 a barrel. Recent upside price action suggests a market bottom is in place for oil. However, my bias is that crude oil prices will remain trapped in a choppy and sideways trading range between $40 and $50 a barrel in the coming months. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is lower and hit a 13-month low overnight. The greenback bears remain in firm near-term technical command as prices have been trending lower since the beginning of this year.


    There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 21 Jul 2017 11:30:43 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/21/world-stock-markets-flat-in-quiet-summertime-trading/ World Stock Markets Firmer; ECB Meeting Conclusion Awaited https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/20/world-stock-markets-firmer-ecb-meeting-conclusion-awaited/ (Kitco News) - Most world stock markets were firmer overnight, continuing to see upside support from generally upbeat corporate earnings reports. U.S. stock indexes hit record highs on Wednesday and are poised to move still higher when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S.-session trading today. Some mild profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders is featured after recent good gains in the yellow metal.

    In overnight news, the Bank of Japan at its latest monetary policy meeting Thursday scaled back its inflation expectations to suggest its easy-money policies can remain in place longer.

    The European Central Bank is meeting Thursday. The marketplace is awaiting the ECB's stance on future monetary policy for the Euro zone. ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference will be the highlight of the ECB meeting.

    The important "outside markets" on Thursday morning see Nymex crude oil futures near steady and trading around $47.00 a barrel. Recent upside price action suggests a market bottom is in place for oil. My bias is that crude oil prices will be trapped in a choppy trading range between $40 and $50 a barrel in the coming months. The U.S. dollar index is higher on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure that pushed the index to a 10-month low on Wednesday. The greenback bears remain in firm near-term technical command.


    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey and leading economic indicators.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 20 Jul 2017 11:39:25 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/20/world-stock-markets-firmer-ecb-meeting-conclusion-awaited/ Global Equity Markets Lifted By Upbeat Earnings, Rebounding Crude Oil https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/19/global-equity-markets-lifted-by-upbeat-earnings-rebounding-crude-oil/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, supported in part by upbeat corporate earnings reports and the recent rally in crude oil prices. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker in pre-U.S. trading on a corrective pullback from recent gains that pushed prices to a three-week high on Tuesday.

    In overnight news, the German government 30-year bond (bund) fetched an average yield of 1.29%, which is a nearly two-year high.

    The "outside markets" on Wednesday morning see Nymex crude oil futures slightly higher and trading around $46.50 a barrel. Recent upside price action suggests a market bottom is in place for oil. However, talk of OPEC over-production and big U.S. stockpiles will limit the upside for crude.

    Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is firmer early today, on a tepid rebound after hitting a 10-month low on Tuesday. The U.S. Republican party's failure to get a new health care package passed through Congress weighed heavily on the greenback Tuesday. The dollar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend that has been in place all year long.


    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 19 Jul 2017 11:27:43 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/19/global-equity-markets-lifted-by-upbeat-earnings-rebounding-crude-oil/ Trump Defeat On Health Care Weighing On U.S. Dollar https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/18/trump-defeat-on-health-care-weighing-on-u-s-dollar/ (Kitco News) - Global markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are higher in pre-U.S.-session trading. The yellow metal bulls have gained upside momentum recently, to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place.


    In overnight news, the Trump administration was dealt another major blow when Republican lawmakers pulled from consideration their latest health care reform package. The health care reform failure now calls into serious question the success of any other big initiatives that Trump has promised to push through Congress. The U.S. dollar index dropped sharply on the news.

    In other news, the closely watched German ZEW economic expectations index came in at 86.4 in July versus 88.0 in June.

    The U.K.'s annual consumer price inflation was reported at 2.6% in June, which is lower than the forecast rate of 2.9%.

    The "outside markets" on Tuesday morning see Nymex crude oil futures slightly higher and trading just above $46.50 a barrel. Recent upside price action suggests a market bottom is in place.

    Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is solidly lower early today and hit another 10-month low. The U.S. Republican party's failure to get a new health care package passed through Congress is weighing heavily on the greenback today. The dollar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend that has been in place all year long.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, import and export prices, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 18 Jul 2017 11:34:57 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/18/trump-defeat-on-health-care-weighing-on-u-s-dollar/ Global Markets Mixed; China Shares Pressured By Regulators https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/17/global-markets-mixed-china-shares-pressured-by-regulators/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares little changed and the Chinese stock markets solidly lower. Chinese finance officials said at a big financial meeting over the weekend they will crack down hard on excessive debt and speculation by Chinese citizens. That rattled small-cap stocks in China. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are firmer in pre-U.S. market trading Monday, on follow-through buying strength from Friday's good gains that saw the market post a technically bullish weekly high close, which suggests a near-term price bottom is in place.


    In other China news, the world's second-largest economy showed second-quarter gross domestic product growth of 6.9% from the same time last year, which was slightly above market expectations and above the official China government projections for 2017 growth.

    The Euro zone on Monday reported its consumer price index in June was unchanged from May and up 1.3%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

    The "outside markets" on Monday morning see Nymex crude oil futures slightly up and trading above $46.50 a barrel. The oil market bulls had a good week last week, including a technically bullish weekly high close in Nymex crude oil last Friday that suggests a market bottom is in place.

    Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is near steady early today and did hit a 10-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend that has been in place all year long.

    U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 17 Jul 2017 11:42:41 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/17/global-markets-mixed-china-shares-pressured-by-regulators/ Marketplace Awaits Big Batch Of U.S. Data Friday Morning https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/14/marketplace-awaits-big-batch-of-u-s-data-friday-morning/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight, as the world markets awaited the readings on a heavy batch of U.S. economic reports due out Friday morning. There are also some earnings reports from big U.S. financial institutions due out today. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are trading firmer in pre-U.S. session trading. While prices are still in a near-term downtrend, the gold bulls this week were able to at least temporarily stop the downside bleeding in their market.

    It is indeed a very busy say for important U.S. economic data Friday. The consumer price index is a headline report. CPI is expected to come in at up 0.1% in June from May. Retail sales data will also be closely scrutinized.

    Sales in June are seen up 0.1% from May. Also out are industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

    The "outside markets" on Friday morning see Nymex crude oil futures firmer and trading above $46.00 a barrel. The oil market bulls have had a good week. A technically bullish weekly high close in Nymex crude oil Friday would suggest a market bottom is in place.


    Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today. The greenback bears have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a solid price downtrend.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 14 Jul 2017 11:31:30 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/14/marketplace-awaits-big-batch-of-u-s-data-friday-morning/ World Stock Markets Rise After Dovish Yellen; U.S. PPI On Deck https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/13/world-stock-markets-rise-after-dovish-yellen-u-s-ppi-on-deck/ (Kitco News) - Global equity markets were mostly higher overnight, following the lead of the U.S. stock market that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average post a record high close Wednesday.

    Dovish comments on U.S. monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday helped to lift the U.S. stock indexes. The U.S. indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are modestly up in pre-U.S. day trading on more short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a four-month low earlier this week.

    The key U.S. economic report today is the producer price index for June, which is expected to come in unchanged from May.

    Yellen speaks again today in front of the U.S. Senate. The question-and-answer session will be monitored closely, but her remarks to the Senate are likely to be the same as those to the House members on Wednesday.

    In overnight news, it was reported that China's exports rose by 11.3% in June, from the same period last year, while its imports rose by 17.2% in that timeframe. Those numbers were slightly above market expectations.

    The "outside markets" on Thursday morning see Nymex crude oil futures slightly lower and trading just above $45.00 a barrel. An IEA report out today said world oil demand is on the rise. The crude oil market bears remain in firm near-term technical control.

    Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today, but gains are limited by the more dovish tone on U.S. monetary policy delivered by Yellen in her remarks on Wednesday. The greenback bears have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend.


    Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 13 Jul 2017 11:58:53 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/13/world-stock-markets-rise-after-dovish-yellen-u-s-ppi-on-deck/ Global Markets Quieter Ahead Of Yellen Testimony Before U.S. Congress https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/12/global-markets-quieter-ahead-of-yellen-testimony-before-u-s-congress/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are firmer in pre-U.S.-session trading. Bulls are trying to keep prices from falling below the technically important $1,200.00 level.

    Focus of the marketplace today is on Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony on U.S. monetary policy before a U.S. House of Representatives committee. As usual, markets and Fed watchers will try to glean from her remarks clues on the timing and nature of the next monetary policy action from the U.S. central bank. Many believe the Fed will continue on a path of gradually tightening monetary policy.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone's May industrial output was reported at a five-year high, at up 1.3% from April and up 4.0% from the same time last year.

    The key "outside markets" on Wednesday morning see Nymex crude oil futures firmer and trading just below $46.00 a barrel. Traders are expecting a bullish weekly U.S. storage report out later today. Reports today said Saudi Arabia in June produced more crude oil than its agreed-upon level to comply with an OPEC agreement. The oil market bears are in firm near-term technical control. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The greenback bears have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend.


    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve's beige book.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 12 Jul 2017 11:51:47 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/12/global-markets-quieter-ahead-of-yellen-testimony-before-u-s-congress/ Marketplace Quieter Overnight; Lower Oil Prices Limit Gains In Equity Markets https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/11/marketplace-quieter-overnight-lower-oil-prices-limit-gains-in-equity-markets/ (Kitco News) -Global stock markets were mixed overnight. European stock indexes were mostly weaker, while Asian shares were mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Slipping oil prices this week are a bearish element for world share prices.

    Goldman Sachs reportedly said oil prices could fall below $40.00 a barrel if OPEC cannot move to further curtail its oil production.

    Gold prices are modestly lower Tuesday morning and trading not far above the key psychological support level of $1,200.00.


    There were no major markets news events occurring overnight to move the markets. Attention of the marketplace is on remarks that come from officials from the world's major central banks, amid generally more hawkish tones on monetary policies coming from the central bankers.

    The key "outside markets" on Tuesday morning see Nymex crude oil futures weaker and trading around $44.00 a barrel. The oil market bears are in firm near-term technical control. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is modestly higher early today. The greenback bears also have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend.

    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, and monthly wholesale trade. The U.S. data pace picks up markedly Wednesday and the rest of this week, including testimony to Congress from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, the producer price index, consumer price index and retail sales.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 11 Jul 2017 11:54:38 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/11/marketplace-quieter-overnight-lower-oil-prices-limit-gains-in-equity-markets/ Global Marketplace Upbeat To Start Trading Week https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/10/global-marketplace-upbeat-to-start-trading-week/ (Kitco   News) -

    World stock markets were mostly higher overnight, amid generally optimistic trader and investor attitudes to start the trading week.

    The just-completed G-20 meeting in Germany did not produce any fireworks, and that is helping to keep buying interest in world equities keen. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker and hit a nearly four-month low overnight, on a lack of risk aversion in the marketplace at present. Gold prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the near-term technical advantage.

    In overnight news, China's producer price inflation was unchanged in June from May, at up 5.5%, year-on-year. Consumer prices were up 1.5% in the same time period.

    The key "outside markets" early Monday morning see Nymex crude oil futures lower and trading below $44.00 a barrel. The oil market bears are in firm near-term technical control. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is modestly up early today.

    U.S. economic data due for release today is light and includes the employment trends index. The report pace picks up Wednesday through the end of the week, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking to the U.S. Congress on the Fed's monetary policy.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing  to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 10 Jul 2017 12:01:47 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/10/global-marketplace-upbeat-to-start-trading-week/ Global Equity Markets Weaker; U.S. Jobs Report On Deck https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/07/global-equity-markets-weaker-u-s-jobs-report-on-deck/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly lower overnight as the marketplace reality sets in that there will be less accommodative monetary policies from the world's major central banks-after nearly a decade of easy-money initiatives.

    Higher world government bond market yields this week are also bearish for the global equities markets. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker in pre-U.S. session trading. Bearish near-term charts are keeping the sellers confident.

    What is arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the month is out this morning: the Labor Department's employment situation report for June.

    The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up around 175,000. Thursday's precursor jobs data, the June ADP national employment report, showed a jobs number of up 158,000, which was a slight miss to the downside of market expectations.

    Trading in many markets could become active in the immediate aftermath of this morning's U.S. jobs report-especially if it's a miss from market expectations.


    The key "outside markets" early Friday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices solidly lower and trading just above $45.00 a barrel. The oil market bears are in firm near-term technical control. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The greenback bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 07 Jul 2017 11:35:16 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/07/global-equity-markets-weaker-u-s-jobs-report-on-deck/ Global Stock Markets Lower; Important U.S. Economic Data Just Ahead https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/06/global-stock-markets-lower-important-u-s-economic-data-just-ahead/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    World bond market yields are on the rise again this week, on concerns about tighter monetary policies from the world's major central banks. Tuesday's release of the latest minutes from the FOMC's June meeting contained no big surprises, but still showed a Federal Reserve that wants to reduce its big balance sheet of government securities. The European Central Bank releases its latest meeting minutes today.

    Gold prices are modestly higher in pre-U.S. day session trading, on some mild safe-haven demand and short covering from recent selling pressure.

    World geopolitics is back close to the front burner of the marketplace this week. North Korea says it has an intercontinental ballistic missile that the regime says can reach anywhere in the world. President Trump says he will deal with the North Koreans but so far has not done much. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet face-to-face for the first time later this week.

    The key U.S. report of the day is the ADP national employment report for June, which is a precursor to the more important Labor Department Employment report that comes out on Friday morning. Both reports are expected to show an increase in their jobs numbers of 175,000 to 180,000 in June.

    The key "outside markets" on Thursday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher on a corrective bounce from Wednesday's solid losses. The oil market bears are back in firm near-term technical control. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The greenback bears also have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the ADP national employment report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the ISM non-manufacturing report on business and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 06 Jul 2017 11:38:56 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/06/global-stock-markets-lower-important-u-s-economic-data-just-ahead/ Global Markets Mixed; Geopolitics Moving Into Spotlight Again https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/05/global-markets-mixed-geopolitics-moving-into-spotlight-again/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Many U.S. traders are just now returning from a long holiday weekend.

    Gold prices are trading near steady after hitting a nearly four-month low overnight. The bears have technical momentum as gold prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

    The world geopolitical scene has heated up again, but safe-haven gold is not reacting much, at least not yet. North Korea says it has an intercontinental ballistic missile that the regime says can reach anywhere in the world. This has riled the U.S. and other Western nations. The Trump administration wants to take a hardline against the North Koreans, but its options are very limited.

    In other overnight news, the Eurozone got some upbeat economic data. Retail sales were up 0.4% in May from April, and were up 2.6%, year-on-year. These numbers were better than market expectations. Meantime, the Eurozone Markit composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 56.3 in June, which was slightly down from the May reading but still above market expectations.

    Despite the good Eurozone economic data Wednesday, the Euro currency is seeing some profit-taking pressure from recent good gains that pushed prices to a 10-month high last week.

    A feature in the marketplace on Wednesday will be the release of the latest minutes from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Traders will parse the report for any new clues on the future direction and timing of U.S. monetary policy moves.

    The key "outside markets" on Wednesday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices lower amid a global supply glut. Still, recent upside price action in crude oil begins to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher early today, on more short covering after hitting a nine-month low last week. The greenback bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, manufacturers' shipments and inventories, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, and the FOMC minutes.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 05 Jul 2017 11:42:14 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/05/global-markets-mixed-geopolitics-moving-into-spotlight-again/ Global Equity Markets Start Third Quarter On Positive Note https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/03/global-equity-markets-start-third-quarter-on-positive-note/ (Kitco News) - Most World markets started the second half of 2017 on an upbeat note Monday, boosted in part by positive manufacturing data just released.

    The Eurozone June manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 57.4 versus 57.0 in May. A reading of 57.3 was expected in June. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker and hit a six-week low overnight, on slack demand for the safe-haven metal amid the keener "risk-on" trading atmosphere exhibited in the world marketplace recently.

    It will likely be a quieter day in the U.S. markets Monday. Many traders and investors are opting to take an extended holiday weekend ahead of U.S. Independence Day on Tuesday. Some U.S. markets close early Monday.

    The key "outside markets" on Monday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices near steady. Prices did hit a two-week high overnight. Oil bulls have some upside momentum to begin to suggest that a near-term bottom is in place. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher early today, on short covering after hitting a nine-month low last Friday. The greenback bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report on business, the global manufacturing PMI and domestic auto industry sales.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 03 Jul 2017 11:48:25 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/07/03/global-equity-markets-start-third-quarter-on-positive-note/ World Markets Calm As First Half Of 2017 Winds Down https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/30/world-markets-calm-as-first-half-of-2017-winds-down/ (Kitco News) –World stock markets were narrowly mixed in quieter dealings overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are weaker again in pre-U.S.-market trading. The quieter geopolitical front and bearish technical charts have helped to push the safe-haven metal's prices lower recently.

    The world government bond markets' sell offs that have hit most of the world this week spread to Asia on Friday. A soft inflation report from the Euro zone did put a damper on the sell-off in European government bonds. The EU Statistics Agency on Friday reported that Euro zone inflation in June was up 1.3% from the same time last year. The reading in May was up 1.4%. The June number was the lowest this year and falls into the camp of the Euro zone monetary policy doves, who want to see the ECB's easy-money policies hang on for a longer period of time.

    Friday is an extra important trading day from a technical perspective. It's the last trading day of the week, of the month, of the quarter, and of the first half of the year.

    The key "outside markets" on Friday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher. Oil bulls are having a good week as short covering has been featured. However, the oil market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today, on tepid short covering after hitting a nine-month low Thursday. The greenback bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Fri, 30 Jun 2017 11:29:32 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/30/world-markets-calm-as-first-half-of-2017-winds-down/ Global Stock Markets Mixed In Quieter Trading https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/29/global-stock-markets-mixed-in-quieter-trading/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mixed in quieter dealings overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are modestly lower in pre-U.S.-session trading Thursday. A calm geopolitical front and bearish near-term charts are keeping the yellow metal's price from rallying.

    In overnight news, a report on Eurozone business and consumer confidence in June was very upbeat. The European Commission's June economic sentiment indicator came in at 111.1 from 109.2 in May. The June number was the highest in 10 years. That news helped keep the Euro currency in rally mode.

    The Euro has made solid gains this week and is trading at a seven-month high.

    A feature in the marketplace this week has been rising world government bond yields. Earlier this week central bank officials, many of whom were speaking at a conference in Portugal, sounded a more hawkish tone on their monetary policies. It appears the central bankers of the world are embracing the U.S.

    Federal Reserve's notion that the time has come to start raising interest rates and winding down the extraordinary quantitative easing programs that have been in place for nearly 10 years.

    The key "outside markets" on Thursday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer. Oil bulls are having a good week as short covering has been featured. However, the oil market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is modestly lower early today and hit another seven-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the final estimate on first-quarter GDP.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Thu, 29 Jun 2017 11:29:25 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/29/global-stock-markets-mixed-in-quieter-trading/ Global Equity Markets Mostly Weaker; Euro Currency Rallies https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/28/global-equity-markets-mostly-weaker-euro-currency-rallies/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, following the lead of Wall Street's losses Tuesday.

    The gold market is moderately higher in pre-U.S.-session trading Wednesday, supported in part by the slumping U.S. dollar index and on short covering from recent selling pressure.

    The world marketplace is still digesting big news events that occurred Tuesday. A more hawkish tone on monetary policy in a speech delivered by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Tuesday pushed the Euro currency sharply higher, to a seven-month high, and saw the biggest one-day gains in over a year. Draghi's comments have also pushed European bond market yields higher the past two days. Meantime, the U.S. Senate decided to postpone until after its July Fourth holiday recess an attempt to push through legislation on health care reforms. That news helped to sink the U.S. stock market Tuesday.

    The key "outside markets" on Wednesday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly lower. The oil market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trading around $44.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is modestly lower early today and hit a seven-month low overnight, on follow-through selling pressure after strong losses seen Tuesday. The greenback bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the advance economic indicators report, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Wed, 28 Jun 2017 11:41:54 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/28/global-equity-markets-mostly-weaker-euro-currency-rallies/ Global Equity Markets Mostly Weaker; Focus On Central Bankers' Speeches https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/27/global-equity-markets-mostly-weaker-focus-on-central-bankers-speeches/ (Kitco News) - World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight and U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are seeing a short-covering bounce with moderate gains Tuesday after prices hit a five-week low on Monday.

    In overnight news, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said at a conference in Portugal the ECB will not be in a hurry to wind down its accommodative monetary policy because the European Union's collective economy is still in recovery mode. However, he also said the Eurozone economy is growing "above trend" and said inflation will increase at some point down the road, which will prompt the ECB to tighten its monetary policy. Draghi's overall upbeat comments on the Eurozone lifted the euro currency and sent European bond yields higher.

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to make a speech in London Tuesday, where she may remark on the U.S. economy and Fed monetary policy.

    The key "outside markets" on Tuesday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer on more short covering after hitting a 14-month low last week.

    The oil market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trading below $44.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is solidly lower early today. The greenback bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the consumer confidence index, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    Follow Jim Wyckoff @jimwyckoff for breaking news.

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Tue, 27 Jun 2017 11:55:16 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/27/global-equity-markets-mostly-weaker-focus-on-central-bankers-speeches/ Global Stock Markets Boosted By Risk-On Attitudes https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/26/global-stock-markets-boosted-by-risk-on-attitudes/ (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly higher overnight as trader and investor risk appetite is on the upswing to start the business week. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S-session trading, amid the better risk appetite in the marketplace.

    In the overnight news, the closely watched German Ifo business confidence index hit a record high of 115.1 in June from 114.6 in May. This news helped to lift European shares and support the risk-on mentality in the markets so far today.

    The key "outside markets" on Monday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly higher on more tepid short covering after hitting a 14-month low last week. The oil market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trading below $44.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes durable goods orders, the Chicago Fed national activity index, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.To get full access to all Money Morning content, click here.

    Disclaimer: © 2020 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.]]> Mon, 26 Jun 2017 11:39:05 +0000 https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/26/global-stock-markets-boosted-by-risk-on-attitudes/ World Stock Markets Mixed In Quiet Trading To End The Week https://moneymorning.com/2017/06/23/world-stock-markets-mixed-in-quiet-trading-to-end-the-week/ (Kitco News) –World stock markets were narrowly mixed in subdued overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

    Gold prices are posting good gains in pre-U.S.-session trading, on more short covering in the futures market and bargain hunting in the cash market.

    In overnight news, the Euro zone's Markit composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 55.7 in June from 56.8 in May. The June number was lower than expected and at a five-month low.

    The key "outside markets" on Friday morning see Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer on more tepid short covering after hitting a 14-month low on Wednesday. The oil market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trading below $43.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The index has stabilized this week, but the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.


    U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the flash U.S. services and manufacturing purchasing managers' indexes, and new residential sales.

    By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

    About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide anal