Start the conversation
"You heard it here first."
That's what the Fox Business Network's Stuart Varney said after a stock-price prediction I made during an interview rendered the polished TV host momentarily speechless.
During my Dec. 5, 2013, appearance on his popular Varney & Co., I predicted Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) shares would be taking up residence in the $1,000-a-share neighborhood pretty quickly. (Post-split, that figures as $142.85 a share.)
Now, technically speaking, you heard it here first, as I had made that same forecast six weeks earlier right here at Strategic Tech Investor.
However, as Varney's reaction made clear, this was the first time any tech analyst had made such a bold public prediction about Apple on national television.
Since then, many have doubted me along the way. Even Varney himself has ribbed me about it more than a few times.
But I've always stuck by this prediction. And I hope you have, too.
If you have, you're sitting on some tasty 80%+ gains.
That's because Apple just broke through that $142.85 mark… shortly after noon Eastern on Tuesday, to be exact.
Where is it going from here?
When History Pays Off
My colleagues who watched that first $1,000-per-share prediction said it looked like Varney was about to jump out of his chair.
But I kept my cool.
That's because I was confident.
Sure, the price target sounded aggressive to Varney and others at the time.
But really, I was being conservative.
I knew what Apple was capable of.
I've followed the Silicon Valley legend closely since the first Macintosh PC came out in January 1984.
I wrote about the firm when it was close to dying back in the 1990s, before Steve Jobs came back to save the company from the brink and launch a series of legendary products.
I was among the first tech analysts to say that iTunes would change the music industry as we know it. And I've seen firsthand the lines outside my local Apple Store every time it releases a new product.
With the iconic iPhone and the Mac computers as anchors, it literally has among the more loyal customer bases and best brands in the world today, if not the very best.
So, when I ticked off the reasons why I was confident in that $1,000 target, I was able to do so with some authority.
As a reminder, here they are again…
- Fantastic cash flow
- Extremely high margins
- Great earnings
- A savvy new CEO
Let's address each of these, starting with CEO Tim Cook.
A Different Kind of Legend
At the time, he suffered from an unfair comparison to Jobs, who had died just a few years before. Wall Street was down on Cook because they didn't think he had Jobs' magic.
I've been around Silicon Valley for more than 30 years, so let me let you in on a little secret.
Jobs was a …
About the Author
Michael A. Robinson is a 36-year Silicon Valley veteran and one of the top technology financial analysts working today. That's because, as a consultant, senior adviser, and board member for Silicon Valley venture capital firms, Michael enjoys privileged access to pioneering CEOs, scientists, and high-profile players. And he brings this entire world of Silicon Valley "insiders" right to you...
- He was one of five people involved in early meetings for the $160 billion "cloud" computing phenomenon.
- He was there as Lee Iacocca and Roger Smith, the CEOs of Chrysler and GM, led the robotics revolution that saved the U.S. automotive industry.
- As cyber-security was becoming a focus of national security, Michael was with Dave DeWalt, the CEO of McAfee, right before Intel acquired his company for $7.8 billion.
This all means the entire world is constantly seeking Michael's insight.
In addition to being a regular guest and panelist on CNBC and Fox Business, he is also a Pulitzer Prize-nominated writer and reporter. His first book Overdrawn: The Bailout of American Savings warned people about the coming financial collapse - years before the word "bailout" became a household word.
Silicon Valley defense publications vie for his analysis. He's worked for Defense Media Network and Signal Magazine, as well as The New York Times, American Enterprise, and The Wall Street Journal.
Michael is 100% independent and receives absolutely no compensation from companies he writes about. His ideas are completely his own.
So, it probably goes without saying that you won't ever be left in the dark about breaking innovations, ahead-of-their-time technologies, and breakout companies on the cusp of changing the world once you join this world.