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Today, I want to talk about something traders refer to as "filling the gap."
"Gaps" in a stock's chart occur when the price of the asset moves suddenly up or down, usually in response to news outside of market hours. In many cases these gaps don't last. Instead, they're "filled" when share prices move back into the range of the gap.
For instance, if XYZ stock closes at $100 on a Monday and then opens the following day (Tuesday) at $120 (an overnight gain of 20%), there's a good chance that over the next several sessions the stock will trade back down to the $110 range, which would be halfway between Monday's $100 close and Tuesday's $120 open.
This phenomenon tends to hold true regardless of which way the stock moves, up or down. In either case, shares have a tendency to fill the gap over the next several sessions.
So whenever I see a particular stock take a big jump or a big dip, it's a signal to me that there's a potential opportunity for quick profits, buying options to cover the gap that's about to be filled.
And I've got a great pick to move on right now. It's a leisure company out of Rhode Island that sells toys and games, and it just had an earnings surprise which led to a big pop for the stock. But with the economy heading toward a recession, those gains just aren't going to last, and that means we can get in now for a nice ride as it falls back down.
That company is Hasbro, Inc. (HAS), publishers of pretty much every board game you played as a kid. About two weeks ago, HAS reported Q1 2023 results that included revenue of $1 billion, which was down 13.9% over the same period last year. On the bottom line, earnings came in at $0.01, compared to $0.57 in the year-ago quarter.
Even though both revenue and earnings were significantly lower than the same quarter a year ago, they were still above analyst expectations. The stock jumped more than 14% in a single session on the news.
Like I said, that's far too much of a move for a leisure company, especially if the economy is heading toward a recession.
Since the April 27 gap-up, the stock hasn't been able to add to the gain and I think it's ready for a reversal to fill the gap created by the post-earnings jump.
So here's what we'll do:
I like buying-to-open HAS June 16, 2023 $62.5/$60 Put Spread for $1.25 or less. only. Plan on exiting the position for a 30% profit.
While this is a short-term trade, I'm also keeping an eye out for longer plays. There are plenty of opportunities to make money, even in this sideways market. The U.S. Dollar itself is under threat these days, and that's bringing a financial instrument back into the limelight that's been dead for over a decade - gold.
I know someone who's anticipating a huge breakout for gold in the near future, and he's so confident about his findings that he's put $1.5 million behind his prediction. But here's the thing - the best way to profit here is not to hoard gold.
The post This Stock's Reversal Gives Us an Opportunity for a Quick Profit Pop appeared first on Total Wealth.
About the Author
Shah Gilani boasts a financial pedigree unlike any other. He ran his first hedge fund in 1982 from his seat on the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange. When options on the Standard & Poor's 100 began trading on March 11, 1983, Shah worked in "the pit" as a market maker.
The work he did laid the foundation for what would later become the VIX - to this day one of the most widely used indicators worldwide. After leaving Chicago to run the futures and options division of the British banking giant Lloyd's TSB, Shah moved up to Roosevelt & Cross Inc., an old-line New York boutique firm. There he originated and ran a packaged fixed-income trading desk, and established that company's "listed" and OTC trading desks.
Shah founded a second hedge fund in 1999, which he ran until 2003.
Shah's vast network of contacts includes the biggest players on Wall Street and in international finance. These contacts give him the real story - when others only get what the investment banks want them to see.
Today, as editor of Hyperdrive Portfolio, Shah presents his legion of subscribers with massive profit opportunities that result from paradigm shifts in the way we work, play, and live.
Shah is a frequent guest on CNBC, Forbes, and MarketWatch, and you can catch him every week on Fox Business's Varney & Co.