What Happens When Someone "Shoots the Elephant"

I've been a history junky for decades...

Reading about ancient battles, famed generals, and the historical events that shaped the world has fascinated me since I was a young boy.

And there's one story, written by the late Peter L. Bernstein, in particular that I want to share with you today.

In his masterful study of risk, "Against the Gods," Bernstein - a financial historian and economist himself - tells the story of a celebrated professor of probability and statistics in Moscow during World War II.

During that time, aerial bombardments of the city were unyielding. Even so, this Soviet scholar avoided air raid shelters. After all, Moscow had 7 million people. "Why should I expect them to hit me?" he would say glibly.

However, one night in late winter, the professor suddenly appeared in one of the shelters.

Several of his comrades happened to be there as well and were shocked to run into this "Doubting Thomas."

They all wanted to know: What caused his shift in attitude?

"There are 7 million people in Moscow and one elephant," he explained. "Last night they got the elephant."

Now, I have to admit that this book is easily one of my favorite reads. The writing and storytelling that Bernstein employs is just masterful.

But I love this interaction in particular for a reason...

It encapsulates the biases human beings have in regard to recent events.

Now, we've talked in length about biases - which simply mean the way we are hardwired to think about and approach investing.

Unfortunately for us, most of those biases are what make us lousy investors.

We've already shown you how our "need to be right" and a "result-based mindset" biases can destroy our chances at achieving lifelong wealth.

But today, we're going to dig a little deeper and talk about the most dangerous bias of all - "the single elephant."

Here's what I mean...

Emotions Strike Again

Fact is, as human beings, we may be able to calculate the chance of something happening... We may even understand what those probabilities mean.

But those numbers won't make any difference to us if we fall prey to our wealth-crushing biases.

Take the professor in the anecdote above.

He understood how remote his chance was of being killed.

However, a recent random (and highly memorable) event - the death of the local circus elephant - made him change his decision-making process, and he ultimately succumbed to his emotions.

As investors, we make those same mistakes when it comes to our trading.

And it can have a cataclysmic impact on our wealth.

Traders without a simple-but-powerful system to guide them are the first to abandon their investing strategy when random (and highly memorable) events occur.

I call it the "recency" or "single elephant" bias.

Let's take a closer look...

Three Ways to Combat the "Elephant" in the Room

If you're like most traders and investors, something like this has happened to you.

You have a strategy in place that tells you what stock to buy. The strategy tells you how to get out if you're wrong or hang on when you're right. Through testing or real-time use, you know that the strategy works.

And then it happens: You get a big winner because you followed a tip from your neighbor... or your brother-in-law... or you held a stock that was a loser, let it run through your stop, and then it turned around and made some good money.

The reason why it happened isn't that important.

What did happen is that you made nice profits in a trade or investment that wasn't part of your trading plan.

This is like Moscow's only elephant being killed - it becomes a random, but very memorable, event for you.

But here's what happens next...

You put the strategy that has been working for you on the back burner, or you abandon it all together.

All of your thoughts are consumed by your own private elephant - that big memorable trade.

You want to recreate it, even though there's no evidence that you can.

You become obsessed by one stock that gave you that great win, or you try to find more hot tips from that same neighbor... or his broker... or his goldfish.

All the while, your good, faithful strategy keeps churning out predictable profits.

And then reality starts to set in...

You find out that there is not another magical tip for monster profits coming from your neighbor.

There was just the one elephant after all.

This is a common problem for traders. Like the Moscow professor, our thoughts and actions become clouded by one recent event.

But how, as investors, can we fight back against this innate bias?

Well, I've put together three ways we can combat this "single elephant" problem...

[mmpazkzone name="in-story" network="9794" site="307044" id="137008" type="4"]

  1. Have a system to follow. This is one of the most critical steps for successful investors and traders, and it's a cornerstone of being a 10-Minute Millionaire. However, very few investors have a system. Which is why they have trouble producing repeatable results without reinventing the wheel every trade.
  2. Understand that distractions will come. Decide what you will do with "special opportunities" before they arise. If you get a stock pick idea - crazy or not - that is outside of your strategy, how will you handle it? In most cases, a polite "pass" is warranted. However, if you run into a "special case" that you just can't ignore, be especially aware of how much capital you are willing to risk on an unproven pick.
  3. Learn your biases. What catches your attention? Does a stock that makes a big win inside your strategy lead you to overtrade that stock? Are you worried that your friends will be upset if you miss out on their hot tip? Learning what your innate biases are will help you limit your emotions and stick to your system.

If you understand the things that tend to distract you, you can plan to minimize their impact on your trading and investing.

This simplest way to overcome distractions is to make a plan and stick with it.

The bottom line is if you decide to adopt the 10-Minute Millionaire strategy, stick with it.

For the first time, D.R. Barton's sharing the secret that made him a self-made millionaire. His 10-minute, three-step system empowers investors to double or triple their money without being tied to a trading screen. And the best part is, it's absolutely free. So click here to get his 10-Minute Millionaire every week, and get started on the path to your first million.

Making a plan and sticking with it is the simplest way to overcome these deadly wealth pitfalls.

Carve out the 10-minute stretches it takes to keep your wealth-building program going.

There will be tough stretches.

That's normal.

But if you stick with this, give the strategy time to work in your favor, and work it like it's designed, you'll find that your probabilities for generating market-trouncing results over the long haul rise accordingly.

And that's the key point: This is a trading system - a carefully designed approach to the stock market - that's designed to allow you to capture big annualized gains.

I'm talking about a series of short-term wins that, strung together, will get you to the promised land (millionaire status).

Trust the system...

And before long, it'll become second nature and you'll be well on your way to building true wealth in just 10 minutes a day.

Must See: This Great Depression-Era "Secret" Helped Transform Two Teachers into Millionaires. Read More…

About the Author

D.R. Barton, Jr., Technical Trading Specialist for Money Map Press, is a world-renowned authority on technical trading with 25 years of experience. He spent the first part of his career as a chemical engineer with DuPont. During this time, he researched and developed the trading secrets that led to his first successful research service. Thanks to the wealth he was able to create for himself and his followers, D.R. retired early to pursue his passion for investing and showing fellow investors how to build toward financial freedom.

Read full bio