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Editor's Note: As one of the traders who was instrumental in creating the precursor to the VIX, we asked Shah to write about the truth behind our understanding of volatility and how it applies to today's volatile markets.
The wild swings we see in the stock market aren't the result of volatility.
Volatility results from the wild swings, not the other way around.
One thing investors don't understand is that the VIX (the CBOE Volatility Index, sometimes called the market's "fear gauge") isn't predictive. It isn't a leading indicator; it isn't telling us what the future holds. It's misleading.
If you didn't know that, chances are you may not understand what's really causing wild market swings.
Here's your quick fix on the VIX and how to avoid falling into the fear gauge's trap…
Back to Volatility Basics
There are two kinds of volatility:
- Realized volatility
- Implied volatility
Realized volatility, more often called historical volatility, is a measure of past volatility.
One measure of how things move is standard deviation, or how far from the "mean" (its average) something moves. A one standard deviation move is tame, a two standard deviation move is less so, and so on. Historical volatility is the average of how many standard deviations something moves (in either direction) over a period of time.
We know how volatile something has been, like a stock or the stock market as measured by the S&P 500, because we can measure how volatile it has been over historical time periods.
Implied volatility, on the other hand, is the measure of volatility that's derived from the actual market price of an option, or a stock, or the market.
To calculate implied volatility, you would have to throw out the theoretical price of what something (like an options contract) should be, since that is calculated by using the Black-Scholes options pricing model, which incorporates historical volatility.
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To figure out what something's implied volatility is, you'd plug in all the numbers that comprise the Black-Scholes model (except the historical volatility number), substituting the actual market price for the theoretical price (which is what the model solves for), and instead solve for a new volatility number.
Implied volatility is the expected volatility buyers and sellers of that option are pricing it at, in the real world.
In other words, implied volatility is what the market expects volatility to be.
Origins of the VIX
The Black-Scholes options pricing model (the one that uses historical volatility as part of its equation to calculate theoretical options prices) was plugged into the computers we used at the CBOE back in the early 1980s when I was a market-maker on the floor.
If you wanted to buy or sell an option, you might look at what the theoretical price should be, to see if you could buy it cheaper than what it was supposedly worth or sell it for more than what it was theoretically worth.
However, what was obvious to a bunch of us was that theoretical prices derived by formula were quite different from the prices at which we were buying and selling.
Necessity is the mother of invention, and we were trying to make money. So, to figure out why there was such a difference between theoretical prices and actual prices, a handful of us started playing with the Black-Scholes model.
About the Author
Shah Gilani is the Event Trading Specialist for Money Map Press. In Zenith Trading Circle Shah reveals the worst companies in the markets - right from his coveted Bankruptcy Almanac - and how readers can trade them over and over again for huge gains.Shah is also the proud founding editor of The Money Zone, where after eight years of development and 11 years of backtesting he has found the edge over stocks, giving his members the opportunity to rake in potential double, triple, or even quadruple-digit profits weekly with just a few quick steps. He also writes our most talked-about publication, Wall Street Insights & Indictments, where he reveals how Wall Street's high-stakes game is really played.