Independence Realty Trust Inc

The Martians have landed in New Jersey! Chinese Army tanks are rolling in the Chicago Loop! California has fallen into the ocean! Giant robots have kidnapped the Statue of Liberty! D.C. is in flames!

The yield on 10-year Treasuries has fallen below the yield on three-month Treasuries!

We are doomed!

Enough already – yes, last week, the yield curve inverted.

So, the conventional thinking goes, we'll have a recession. Right? Maybe. When? Don't know. It could be a month or two; it could be almost two years from now.

The truth is, there has been a yield curve inversion before every recession – if you don't care how long it took for that recession to develop. The historical record shows the yield curve inverted a whopping 23 months before the economy slowed in the most recent recession.

So, a yield curve inversion heralds a recession in kinda the same way baseball's Opening Day "causes" the World Series, or that being born is a leading cause of death.

In other words, it's a bit of a stretch – and certainly nothing you'd want to make do-or-die investing decisions on.