Jerome Powell and the central bank will send the U.S. economy hurtling into contraction mode no later than the winter after next.
How can I be so sure of my claim? Well, one very reliable indicator is flashing red.
In fact, it's so dependable that since 1980, it has predicted the advent of every recession, right around a year to 18 months ahead of time.
And right now, it's approaching the critical level.
See, the Fed's raising of short-term rates is causing the yield curve to flatten. From there, it's a short trip to outright inversion. Once it inverts, two-year Treasuries will yield more than 10-year Treasuries.
Once that happens, a major peak in stocks – then a recession – is all but totally certain within the next year and a half.